Analysis of price incentives for sorghum and other cereals in Ethiopia 2005–2024

Sorghum is a key crop for food security, nutrition, and climate resilience in Ethiopia, yet its development potential remains largely untapped. Despite being cultivated by nearly five million farmers, positioning Ethiopia as the world’s sixth-largest producer, sorghum yields and commercialization have stagnated due to persistent structural and policy-related constraints. This report, prepared by the Monitoring and Analysing Food and Agricultural Policies (MAFAP) programme of FAO at the request of Ethiopia’s Ministry of Agriculture, examines the performance of the sorghum value chain and identifies the binding constraints that must be addressed to inform the emerging National Sorghum Flagship Programme. Drawing on 19-year trends, MAFAP price‑incentive indicators and complementary evidence, the analysis finds sustained price disincentives for sorghum producers and traders are driven by weak market integration, limited downstream demand, export restrictions, food aid inflows, and overvaluation of the Ethiopian birr. Comparisons with wheat and teff – crops that have benefited from targeted policies and strong domestic demand – highlight how current market and policy conditions undermine incentives for sorghum production and investment. To unlock the sector’s potential, the report proposes a coordinated set of interventions across the value chain: boosting farm‑level productivity through improved input access and strengthened extension; enhancing market orientation through investment in transport, storage, and processing; and stimulating demand via exchange‑rate reforms, export market access, and measures to expand industrial uses of sorghum. Together, these actions aim to support a competitive, resilient, and market‑driven sorghum sector capable of contributing more effectively to Ethiopia’s food‑system transformation.
