There is growing empirical evidence that land degradation (e.g. loss of soil organic carbon, soil drying, increased soil erosion) is associated with increased crop yield gaps. Here, we examine how much this happens where socio-economically vulnerable populations are located and how much crop yield is lost overall. For this, we rely on newly available data on crop yield gaps, land degradation, and poverty – especially relying on satellite data – and causal forest models for the analysis. We find that globally, 1.7 billion people live where crop yields are lower due to land degradation. Particularly worrying, this includes 47 million children under the age of five already affected by stunting. The largest losses are found in eastern and southeastern Asia, with 1.3 million tonnes of lost crop production, implying a caloric loss of 3.6 trillion kcal, and lost revenues of USD 591 million. These numbers are lower-bound estimates for two reasons: first, only nonabandoned croplands are included in this study, while extreme forms of land degradation lead to abandonment; and second, only soil organic carbon, soil water, and soil erosion were used as land degradation indicators, while land degradation has other costs including lost ecosystem services and pollution. Despite being a lower bound, findings reveal clear impacts on crop production within the context of socio-economic vulnerability, which can guide policy prioritization to address land degradation and food security.

Background paper for The State of Food and Agriculture 2025 – Addressing land degradation across landholding scales.