Op-ed: ‘’The war in Ukraine could spark a hurricane of global hunger’’
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is just the latest in a series of overlapping food crises. It is our brittle, concentrated globalized food system that has created this vulnerable situation, and it must be addressed.
The immediate food crisis sparked by the war is a lack of supplies and rising hunger among Ukrainians directly affected by the conflict, some 10 million of whom have been forced to flee their homes.
But the war is also triggering a global food crisis well beyond the Black Sea region.
Ukraine and Russia, long considered “Europe’s breadbasket” with rich, fertile soils, account for around a quarter of the world’s wheat exports, as well as significant sunflower oil and maize supplies, and Russia is a major fertilizer exporter.
Countries reliant on Ukrainian and Russian wheat are being left empty-handed. Nearly 30 countries rely on those imports for over 30% of their wheat. For Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Lebanon, it’s a far higher dependency. That’s before the threats to the coming planting and harvesting seasons, which are already projected to further diminish global food production. It’s the poorest segments of society in low income countries, who typically spend over 60% of their income on food, who are starting to lose access to food.
The war in Ukraine has laid bare for all to see the fragility of the dominant global food system based on highly specialized industrial production methods, transnational supply chains, and excessive concentration.
Countries that rely on imports from Russia and Ukraine must find alternative sources of food imports and diversify their food sources. It’s imperative that grain exporting countries refrain from the temptation to impose export restrictions, which could further drive up food prices.
In the longer term, more resilient food systems will require countries to sustainably strengthen and diversify their domestic food production. This means investing in improving domestic food production capacity to reduce excessive reliance on imports. It also means investing in infrastructure for local food markets, and support for more sustainable forms of agriculture such as agroecology that absorb carbon and rely less on chemical fertilizers.