The region will not reach its maximum population level before 2060.

03 March 2017, Santiago, Chile - A new FAO report analyzes major trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, such as the structural transformation of agriculture and the changes that urbanization has generated in food production and distribution systems.

The report The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges highlights that global food security is at risk due to multiple challenges and warns that without additional measures, the goal of ending hunger and malnutrition in all its forms will not be achieved by 2030.

With regard to future trends for Latin America and the Caribbean, the report indicates that the growth of the regional population will decrease moderately, so that the region will not reach its maximum population level before 2060.

Over the next 15 years, the number of older people is expected to grow faster in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a 71 per cent increase in the population aged 65 and over, followed by Asia (66 per cent), Africa (64 percent) and Oceania (47 percent).

With aging, the economic growth potential of the economy slows down, social security systems can become unsustainable and burdens on the health care system increase.

Traditionally, Latin America has been the most urbanized developing region. South America in particular became urban early and fast. By 1980, more than two-thirds of the population in Latin America and the Caribbean was urban, a figure that increased to almost 85 percent by 2015.

"Rapid urbanization has led to profound changes in food production and distribution systems. Today, supermarkets account for more than 50 percent of grocery sales in the region,” Eve Crowley, Regional Representative a.i. Of FAO for Latin America and the Caribbean explained.

Sustainability and indigenous foods

In some areas of Latin America, concerns about the sustainability of food systems has driven consumer preference for high-quality local foods related to their traditions and cultures.

The recent appearance in markets of indigenous foods such as quinoa, amaranth and chia demonstrate the potential of indigenous and traditional food systems and crops to contribute to the diversification of diets.

However, while several indigenous foods such as olluco, sweet potato, yam, kiwicha and native palms of the Andes could contribute significantly to the global food supply, they are unlikely to become important food products without further research and adaptation.

Inequality and migration

The FAO report notes that the Gini coefficient - which measures the level of income inequality - declined in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1993 and 2008, but remains above the global average, reaching 0.48.

"Our region is the most unequal on the planet, which is one of the biggest obstacles in the fight to eradicate hunger and poverty and achieve sustainable development," said Eve Crowley.

Of the 250 million international migrants in the world, 9 million live in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although more than one-third of international migration flows from the "South" to the "North", it is important to note that "South-South" flows are also very relevant: 66% of migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean emigrate to neighboring countries within the region itself.

Structural transformation of LAC agriculture

The new report analyzes the various paths taken by the structural transformation of agriculture in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.

In Brazil, support policies helped to create a highly commercialized agricultural sector and labor productivity in agriculture increased more than fourfold. The share of agriculture in GDP was about 6 percent in the last 20 years, while the share of agricultural employment in total employment fell from 24 to 9 percent.

In Mexico, between 1990 and 2013, agriculture's share of GDP fell from 7 percent to 3.5 percent and the share of agricultural employment in total employment fell by half, from 12 percent to 6 percent. Labor productivity almost doubled in Brazil and Mexico, and quadrupled in Argentina.

The report shows that while investments in technological innovations are boosting productivity, the annual growth rate of yields has declined. This is exacerbated by the degradation of the region’s natural resources.

Poverty reduction and social protection

According to the report, overall income growth and agricultural productivity contributed to the reduction of poverty throughout the region.

In the early 1990’s, 74 of the region's 124 million rural inhabitants were poor (59.7 percent) and 41 million (33.1 percent) were unable to meet their food needs. For 2010, these figures dropped to 62 million rural poor and 39 million in food insecurity.

However, as the rural population also declined (to 119 million inhabitants), the percentage of the rural population living in poverty and food insecurity has remained relatively high, affecting 52 per cent and 32 per cent of the rural population, respectively , in 2010.

According to the FAO report, many countries in the region have extensive networks and social protection programs that provide income support to the poor and vulnerable, including small farmers.

"These systems have helped accelerate the reduction of food insecurity, malnutrition and poverty, while helping to reduce income inequality during the years 2000," explained Eve Crowley.

Crowley stressed that the current challenge is to improve infrastructure, resilience and mechanisms to address risks in rural areas, using, for example, social protection and agricultural insurance to help farmers protect themselves against the risks inherent to agricultural production.

Feminization of agriculture

The growth of women's employment in agriculture is evident in several Latin American countries, including Chile, Ecuador, and Peru. The "feminization of agriculture" often increases the burden on women, but it also presents opportunities.

In many Latin American countries, the observed changes in women's participation in agriculture are probably driven by wage employment in agribusinesses that produce non-traditional agricultural exports.

Employment in these export enterprises could facilitate the economic empowerment of women and expand the number of jobs available to rural women.