FAO: Record cereal harvests expected for South America in 2019
December 5th, 2019, Santiago, Chile - The aggregate cereal production in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2019 is forecast at 276.5 million tonnes, 14 percent above the five-year average, according to FAO’s latest report.
In South America, cereal production is forecast well above the average, reflecting large maize harvests in Argentina and Brazil and a near-record wheat output, driven mostly by area expansions.
In Central America and the Caribbean, however, aggregate cereal production is estimated below the five-year average, primarily resulting from rainfall deficits that negatively affected maize crops in most countries, according to the Crop Prospects and Food Situation.
South America: Maize and wheatproduction at a record high
The 2019 subregional maize output is estimated at a record-high of 169.5 million tonnes, 26 percent above the five-year average, driven by an increase in the area sown and good weather conditions that raised yields.
In Brazil and Argentina, the 2019 outputs are officially estimated at record highs of 100 million and 57 million tonnes, respectively. Similarly, in Uruguay, the 2019 outturn reached a record level of 816 000. By contrast, maize production in Chile declined by 20 percent compared to the five-year average to 973 000 tonnes and is the lowest outturn in the last decade.
In Colombia, production is also anticipated to be below the five-year average on account of unfavourable weather conditions. In Bolivia and Paraguay, maize production is expected to decline year on year, but remain close to average levels. In Venezuela, aggregate production in 2019 is expected to be well below average.
Harvesting of the 2019 wheat crop is ongoing or is expected to start soon in the subregion and production is anticipated at 28.2 million tonnes, similar to last year’s record level.
Rice harvests have concluded in most countries and the aggregate 2019 paddy production is forecast at a below-average level of 22.9 million tonnes, mainly due to a significant contraction in plantings in Brazil and Uruguay.
Record maize exports from Argentina and Brazil boost trade forecasts in 2019/20 Aggregate cereal exports in the 2019/20 marketing years are forecast at a record high of 95.8 million tonnes, more than 40 percent above the average, with maize grain accounting for nearly 80 percent of this quantity. Subregional wheat exports are forecast at 14.3 million tonnes, 15 percent higher than the average, mostly reflecting larger availabilities of exportable supplies in Argentina.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Wheat production in the subregion, which almost exclusively concentrate in Mexico, is estimated at a below-average level of 3.3 million tonnes. The reduced level is a result of a fall in the area planted, reflecting a continuous shift to the more remunerative maize crop.
The aggregate subregional maize output is forecast at 29.8 million tonnes in 2019, slightly below the five-year average, mainly due to dry weather conditions that affected crops in several countries. In Mexico, which accounts for more than 85 percent of the subregion’s maize output, production is expected at a below-average level due to limited rainfall during the planting and flowering stages.
Elsewhere in the subregion, prolonged dry spells in the June-August period, coupled with elevated temperatures that increased evapotranspiration rates, adversely affected the main maize crops, in northern and central Guatemala, Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua. In particular, the dry weather conditions in Honduras caused significant crop losses.
Only in El Salvador, production is expected at an average level, mainly reflecting beneficial rains. In aggregate, but excluding Mexico, the subregion’s maize output is forecast at a below-average level of 4.3 million tonnes in 2019.
Cereal import requirements in Central America and the Caribbean set at all-time highs
Cereal import requirements, with maize accounting for about 65 percent of the total, are forecast at a record high of 37.2 million tonnes in the 2019/20 marketing years.
The high level mainly reflects growing demand for yellow maize by the animal feed industry and the need to compensate for the reduced harvests in 2019. Imports of wheat are also expected at an above-average level as the demand for wheat-based products for human consumption continues to rise, mostly driven by an expanding population.