Annex
A typology or major agricultural systems at risk and response options
Major agricultural systems | Sub-system and location | Vulnerability | Typical response options | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Main climate options change exposure | Sensitivity | Adaptive capacity | |||
Highlands | Densely populated highlands in poor areas: Himalayas, Andes, Central American highlands, Rift Valley, Ethiopian plateau, Southern Africa | Rainfall variability, droughts, floods | High: mostly rainfed agriculture, marginal lands, poor soil moisture capacity | Low: high prevalence of poverty, limited options, knowledge, social safety nets and resources | Watershed management and onfarm water storage for water conservation; integrated water resources management in river basins; investment in social infrastructures |
Semi-arid tropics | Smallholder farming in Western, Eastern and Southern Africa savannah region and in Southern India; agro-pastoral systems in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and Western India | High temperatures, rainfall variability, droughts | High: crop and animal sensitivity to high temperature and droughts, high population density on marginal lands | Low: high prevalence of poverty, limited options, knowledge, social safety nets and resources, limited capacity for water storage | On-farm water storage; crop insurance; increased productivity through better crop-livestock integration; integrated water resources management |
Sub-tropics | Densely populated and intensively cultivated areas, concentrated mainly around the Mediterranean basin | Reduction in annual rainfall, increased rainfall variability, reduction in runoff and aquifer recharge, high temperatures, higher occurrance of droughts and floods | Variable, depending on the region and level on reliance on agricultural activities. Agricultural systems highly sensitive to changes in temperature and water availability. | Low adaptive capacity for agriculture in water scarce areas | Water conservation where possible; integrated water resources management; crop insurance; improved floods and drought management plans; shifting out of agriculture |
Temperate areas | Highly intensive agriculture in Western Europe. Intensive farming in United States, Eastern China, Turkey, New Zealand, parts of India, Southern Africa, Brazil | Increased rainfall variability, reduced water availability in places. | Medium to low. Some high yielding varieties more sensitive totemperature and water stress | Possibilities to compensate water stress through supplemental irrigation in many regions; low capacity in water scarce areas | On-farm storage for supplemental irrigation; integrated water resources management at river basin level |
Rice-based systems (irrigated) | Southeast and Eastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar, Western Africa, Eastern Africa | Increased rainfall variability, increased rainfall, increased occurrence of droughts and floods | Medium, depending on the capacity to cope with floods and droughts | Medium, depending on the capacity to invest in protection against droughts and floods | Increased water storage for flood control and for second and third crop; alternate wet-dry rice production systems where feasible |
Large irrigation systems in dry areas (mostly canal irrigation) | Colorado River, Murray Darling, Krishna, Indo- Gangetic plains, Northern China, Northern Africa and the Middle East | Change in seasonality of runoff and groundwater recharge and progressive reduction in runoff in snowmelt systems; reduction of rainfall and runoff in Northern Africa and Middle East, higher occurrence of droughts and floods | High sensitivity to variations and reduction in water supply as most areas are already under water stress | Low due to already heavy pressure on water resources. Limited possibilities in places through increased storage and increased water productivity through conservation measures | Increased water storage and drainage; improved reservoir operations; changes in crop and land use; improved soil management; water demand management including groundwater management and salinity control; revision of flood management plans |
Groundwaterbased irrigation systems in interior arid plains | India, China, central USA, Australia, North Africa, Middle East and others | Complex interactions between climate change and groundwater leading to possibilities of increase or decrease of aquifer recharge | High sensitivity to variations and reduction in water supply as most areas are already under water stress | Low due to overexploitation of aquifers and competition with other sectors. Limited possibilities in places through increased water productivity. | Increased productivity where possible; better groundwater management through controlled pumping |
Rangelands | Pastoral and grazing lands, including on fragile soils in Western Africa (Sahel), North Africa, parts of Asia | High temperatures, rainfall variability, droughts | High sensitivity due to reliance on biomass and water for livestock | Very low: high prevalence of poverty, limited options, knowledge, social safety nets and resources | Where possible, better integration of water supply and grazing land management; reduction of livestock density |
Deltas | Nile delta, Red River delta, Ganges/Brahmaputra, Mekong, ect. and coastal alluvial plains: Arabian Peninsula, Eastern China, Bight of Benin, Gulf of Mexico | Sea level rise and salinisation of aquifers and estuaries. Higher frequency of cyclones (E/SE Asia); increased frequency and intensity of floods | Usually high, depending on population density and the capacity to cope with floods, droughts and salinity levels | Variable | Minimise infrastructure development; better conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater; integrated flood management plans; improved management of coastal aquifers |
Small islands and coastal alluvial plains | Including Caribbean, Pacific Islands | Hurricanes, sea-level rise, floods, changes in aquifer recharge | High sensitivity due to fragile aquifers, saltwater intrusion | Variable | Improved management of coastal aquifers; disaster risk reduction plans; water conservation |
Peri-urban agriculture | Everywhere | Depending on location | Relatively low | Highly adaptive and dynamic systems | Climate change is rarely the prime source of risk. Actions would focus on competition for water and land with cities, pollution control and health issues |