1.4 Global Outlook

While recognizing the challenges discussed in the previous section, which need to be addressed by the sector, a number of indicators point to good growth potential for global aquaculture in the near term. These include:

Increasing demand: The increasing demand for fish will require more production, and the supply from capture fisheries is static.

Emergence of the sector: Aquaculture has become recognized as a growth sector of economic importance in many countries and has attracted the attention of the private and public sectors. Development plans of most producing countries are aimed at increasing fish supplies from aquaculture for local and export markets, and at increasing the sector’s contribution to food security in rural areas.

Vertical expansion of production: In many developing countries, including major producers, there is (i) potential for fairly simple and relatively inexpensive means to increase production in many existing systems; (ii) an evident trend towards sustainable intensification coupled with the existence of infrastructure used for extensive traditional production, especially in Asia; and (iii) good potential for increasing productivity (e.g. through more efficient management and improved management skills, better feeds and feeding strategies, reduction of loss to disease, genetic improvement of stocks, etc.).

Horizontal expansion of production: Production areas are being expanded in China, India and other main producers, by mobilizing land resources unsuited to agriculture (saline soils, waterlogged areas, etc.), under-utilized water bodies (for cage and pen culture), seasonal water bodies, and rain-fed ponds, and by use of irrigation systems and integration with agriculture in general. In the long term, integration of aquaculture into watershed management and coastal zone management will provide growth opportunities by facilitating competitive access to resources. Horizontal expansion, though modest in the near term, will also accrue from new entrants (new producing countries).

Culture-based fisheries: Stocking of reservoirs and enhancement/rehabilitation of fisheries will gain importance with time, particularly as cost/benefit problems are resolved .

Growing awareness of sustainability needs: There is a rapidly growing awareness of the need to ensure the sustainability of the sector in the long term. Public debate involving all stakeholders, national and international efforts to arrive at practical guidelines for sustainable practices (codes of practice), and technical efforts to improve the sustainability of some aquaculture systems, are positive responses to challenges and will yield constructive results in the medium and long term.

Development prospects will vary considerably among countries and regions depending on a number of variables, discussed below; and with the increase in aquaculture production, there will be inevitable resource limitations, the impact of which will vary from country to country depending on development policies.

Translating the outlook for development into projected production levels is not a simple matter. Several key variables intervene in defining outlook at the national level, while the global outlook could be interpreted as the sum of national outlooks, modified by synergisms and antagonisms resulting from interactions between countries.

Major determining elements of development prospects at the national level include:

• The historic perspective, which conditions future development. That is, where aquaculture is a traditional activity, the main concern is how to ensure sustainable development of production; where it is a new activity, its adoption as a viable economic activity would be the main concern. Obviously, the consolidation of aquaculture will take much longer in countries where aquaculture is new.

• The markets for aquaculture products, either domestic or export. In both cases, an analysis of supply and demand for aquaculture products is required and, in the case of export markets, it is necessary to assess the country’s comparative economic advantage over its competitors.

• The perceived development issues, which are usually determined by a detailed sector analysis. This should include physical potential for expansion and access to resources, institutional set-up and existing regulatory framework, access to funding and conditions for access to funds, availability of human skills for aquaculture production and presence of supporting industries.

• Existing policies and national development plans which set priorities and may include incentives and deterrents for certain forms of aquaculture.
  
• Availability of technical packages for production (new or improved) and their applicability in the country to promote additional growth of the aquaculture sector.

In the preparation of regional and global outlooks, additional elements to consider include: how the various countries and species contribute to the supply of aquaculture products, and the value of the different products, as the more expensive international commodities will have more limited market possibilities. (In these cases, market saturation is reached relatively quickly with an attendant drop in market price. Further expansion of such markets and production will be predicated on maintaining acceptable profit margins through reduction of production costs.)

The relative weights of the above elements in the assessment of development prospects vary from country to country depending on local conditions. Moreover, the aquaculture sector does not develop in a vacuum. Externalities such as macro-economic changes and social and cultural changes that occur in all the communities and which may modify attitudes of policy makers or consumers, also have an influence on the development of the sector, but are very difficult to forecast. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the course of aquaculture development in the medium and long term (over a ten-year horizon). To compound an already complex task, a considerable amount of the required information mentioned above is simply not available. As a result, projections are usually based on simplifications which limit the utility of the projected outlook.

Projections of future production from aquaculture have been attempted by various authors, with considerable simplifications based on individual approaches. In some cases estimates of production targets have been misinterpreted by readers as estimates of future production. Targets for production from aquaculture have been calculated on the basis of expected population growth and its impact on demand, assuming that consumption of fisheries products would be maintained at the prevailing per caput rate, and that food fish supply from capture fisheries would not increase significantly (New, 1991; Csavas, 1995). Attempts have also been made to make linear extrapolations of past production growth to check whether expected demand could be met (Csavas, 1995). The range of figures (for total aquaculture production targets) produced in these two main studies was 19.6-21.1 million mt for the year 2000, 30.0-37.6 million mt by the year 2010 and 42.0-62.4 million mt by 2025.

A different approach was attempted on the occasion of the International Conference on Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security, held in Kyoto, Japan, in 1995. In this case, likely future production levels were estimated on the basis of projections of the future growth rates of culture of the various species groups. These rates were in turn estimated on the basis of past growth rates and production trends, as well as perceived constraints and opportunities for growth (Muir, 1995). The projected average growth rates for total global production (including plants) from 1992 to 2010, were relatively modest at APRs of 3.7 and 6.0 for the low and high growth scenarios, respectively. Projected global production, based on these rates was 37.0 million mt and 55.0 million mt, respectively. For a longer-term scenario, production by the year 2050 was estimated to be 105.0 million mt on the basis of a global APR of 3, starting from 1992 production levels. Table 1.4.1 presents a summary of these projections.

In this review we limit the time horizon for projections to a short term, five years (1995-2000). The projection is based on the FAO aquaculture statistics data base for 1984-1995.

The APRs for the main commodities and for the main producing countries in 1990-1995 were used as indicators of future prospects of the main species groups and producing countries. Further insight on general development prospects was obtained from the review of future growth prospects and development plans for the sector in major producing countries, as presented in recent country statements prepared by the respective countries.

Given that in 1995 the 10 main aquaculture-producing countries accounted for 24.6 million mt, or 88% of global aquaculture production including plants, and that in the short and medium term this proportion is not likely to change significantly, it seems sufficient to examine trends in these main producers to derive an acceptable approximation of the future levels of production.

Table 1.4.2 shows the levels of production (all categories) for 1984-1995 and the APRs for the intervals 1984-1989, 1990-1995 and 1984-1995 for the 10 main producing countries. In this group, China accounts for 72.4% of production (63.4% globally) which essentially means that the future of the Chinese production is going to largely determine the prospects for global aquaculture growth. According to the statistics provided to FAO by China, the rate of growth of Chinese production has increased from an APR of 13.8 in 1984-1989 to 18.5 in 1990-1995, reaching 17.6 million mt of total production. The Government’s plans to add 5 million mt to production by the year 2000 and an additional 5 million mt by 2010 appear to be possible and rather conservative in view of: the 1990-1995 growth rate; the availability of area for expansion in inland areas (72% has been utilized so far) and coastal areas (32% occupation of potential space); the potential to improve yield in the northern part of the country; and the Government’s plans for investment for expansion of the sector and supporting industries for aquaculture (Zhao, 1997).

The contribution of the other nine countries to global aquaculture in 1995 was 7 million mt and the picture is radically different from that of China. The APR for these countries was 6.2 for 1984-1989 and 4.8 for 1990-1995. The latter is more or less in line with the global growth rate excluding China (i.e. 4.4 for 1990-1995). Growth prospects are uneven. India, Thailand and Bangladesh show relatively high APRs in the 1990-1995 period, ranging from 9.7 to 13.6, for a total joint production of about 2.4 million mt in 1995. It could be expected that an average APR of about 8 could be maintained in the short term by these three countries, as they have potential for expansion in both domestic and export markets, and potential for sustainable intensification of their productions levels, in particular in India and Bangladesh (Liaquat Ali, 1997; Yugraj Singh, 1997). In Thailand the potential for expansion of shrimp culture is rather limited but this is expected to be offset by a shift in production towards mollusc culture and freshwater aquaculture products (Tookwinas, 1997). This projected growth rate should result in production of 3.6 million mt from the three countries by the year 2000.

Japan (Anon., 1997) and Taiwan Province of China (PC), are unlikely to achieve any significant growth in the short term over the levels reached in 1995, because the areas for production seem to be saturated and the level of production is already quite intensive, something which has led to environmental problems and disease outbreaks in Taiwan (PC). Thus, by the year 2000, production for these two countries would be about 1.7 million mt (i.e. the same as in 1995).

The third group among the nine major producers includes the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia and the USA, with APRs of 3.7 to 5.6 for 1990-1995. An APR of 4 to the year 2000 appears likely in view of good market prospects , possibilities for expansion of production areas (although relatively less area is available in the Philippines (Aypa, 1997)), good prospects for intensification of production, and access to funds for further development. This will bring expected production from these countries to 3.6 million mt.

Of the 292 species included in the 1995 FAO aquaculture statistics for which production statistics are provided by member countries, the first 22 species accounted for 80% of the production in 1995 (Table 1.4.3), and the first 31 for 90%. Of the first 22 species, nearly all of the farmed animals are either filter feeders, herbivores or omnivores. Only one species, Atlantic salmon, is carnivorous and it is clearly a minor species in terms of production volume.

The most important group is freshwater finfish (Table 1.4.4). Cyprinids dominate in this group, with a contribution of over 10.3 million mt in 1995. APRs for the various species for 1990-1995 range from 9.7 to 20 (Table 1.4.3). Cyprinids have a number of advantages which will maintain their leadership in the short and medium term: they can use feeds with moderate protein and fishmeal content; they can be reared in polyculture systems that make optimum use of the natural productivity of ponds and water bodies where they are stocked; and they have good markets in Asian countries, due to traditions and relatively low prices.

Aquatic plants have experienced a strong comeback after a period of stagnation in 1984-1989. The APR of 15.8 in 1990-1995, due to the rapid growth of Laminaria japonica and Porphyra tenera farming, underlines renewed interest in this group. Coastal areas where these plants could be farmed are far from saturated, and this group could gain more importance in the future, mainly in the Far East.

Mollusc culture also showed an increasing APR in 1990-1995, averaging about 11.4. This is due in particular to the rapid expansion in the production of scallops and clams, while production of more traditional products like oysters and mussels have suffered from environmental problems (red tides mainly) that have limited their marketability. Clams and scallops will probably gain a larger share in the mollusc group also due to good market price and an international market, and the availability of farming areas. However, expansion of mollusc culture may be threatened by the deterioration of water quality in coastal areas, which may limit the marketability of the products, as has already happened with mussels and oysters. It is likely that the overall growth for 1995-2000 will decline by an APR of 2-3 below that of 1990-1995.

Crustacean culture experienced very rapid growth (APR 24.8) in the mid-to-late 1980s, but growth declined sharply (APR about 8) in 1990-1995 due to viral diseases and environment related problems not yet overcome. Prospects for this group will probably be limited by difficulties in expanding the areas under culture due to problems associated with the very intensive industrial forms of culture (social conflicts, coastal pollution, disease outbreaks) and the attention that the international media have given to these problems. It is also likely that semi-intensive forms will gain ground in the short or mid term, due to current resistance to intensification. In the short term it is further possible that while some areas are recovering from sudden losses, others may suffer viral epidemics, resulting in discontinuous progress in production. Overall, these constraints will probably be reflected in a decline in growth rates below the 1990-1995 levels.

Diadromous fish form a relatively stable aquaculture group with a trend to decreasing growth rate. The APR for 1990-1995 was 4 and it is likely that short-term prospects will not be very different.

Culture of marine finfish has attracted considerable attention in the last decade with a higher growth rate in 1990-1995 than in 1984-1989 (Table 1.4.4). This has been due to the promotion of cage culture and to the improvement of seed production techniques, which has increased the number of species for which commercial hatcheries are available. The potential for expansion will probably be limited by competition for coastal sites (except in the case of offshore cages), feed availability, and environmental concerns, including pollution by other sectors. The economics of production also present problems as many of these species are relatively expensive to produce and, therefore, relatively limited niche markets are targeted. Marine ranching of both demersal and large pelagic species remains limited in the short term by difficulties in mass production of fry, questionable economic viability and legal problems linked to fish ownership. Technological breakthroughs linked to genetics, engineering and feed development, as well as supportive development policies and plans, appear to be needed to guarantee that this group will be able to maintain its present growth rate. The prospects in the short term are thus for a reduction in the growth rate of this group.

Accordingly, it is expected that inland (freshwater) aquaculture will continue to provide the major share of output in the form of low to moderately priced herbivorous/omnivorous species (especially carps), grown mostly in ecologically efficient and environmentally benign

Coastal and marine aquaculture will probably come under increasing pressure for environmental control, social benefit and site availability, particularly in the case of high-value species (shrimp and marine finfish) and will probably affect the production of these species. This is likely to stimulate other production, for a different market, using technologies at lower levels of intensity with lower environmental impact, such as polyculture systems and species at lower trophic levels, including molluscs and aquatic plants.

Better policy and planning are needed to improve prospects for equitable, efficient and sustainable development, while more co-ordinated approaches will be required to stimulate development and achieve high growth rates.

Aypa, S.M. 1997. The status and future of aquaculture in the Philippines. Paper prepared for the first session of the FAO/APFIC Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries Committee (AIFIC).

Anon. 1997. The status and future of aquaculture in Japan. Paper prepared for the first session of the FAO/APFIC Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries Committee (AIFIC). 11p.

Csavas, I. 1995. The status and outlook of world aquaculture, p.1-13. In K.P.P. Nambiar and T. Singh (eds.) Aquaculture Towards the 21st Century. Proceedings of INFOFISH-AQUATECH ’94, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 29-31 August 1994. Kuala Lumpur, INFOFISH.

Liaquat Ali, Md. 1997. The Status and future of aquaculture in Bangladesh. Paper prepared for the first session of the FAO/APFIC Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries Committee (AIFIC). 24p.

Muir, J.F. 1995. Aquaculture development trends: perpectives for food security.Paper presented at the Government of Japan/FAO International Conference on Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security, Kyoto, Japan, 4-9 December 1995. (KC/FI/95/TECH/4). 133 p.

New, M. B. 1991. Turn of the millenium aquaculture: navigating troubled waters or riding the crest of the wave? Journal of the World Aquaculture Society 22(3):28-49.

Tookwinas, S. 1997. The status and future of aquaculture in Thailand. Paper prepared for the first session of the FAO/APFIC Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries Committee (AIFIC). 15 p.

Yugraj Singh, Y. 1997. The status and future of aquaculture in India. Paper prepared for the first session of the FA)/APFIC Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries Committee (AIFIC). 24 p.

Zhao, W. 1997. Research on sustainable Development of Aquaculture in China. Paper prepared for the first session of the FAO/APFIC Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries Committee (AIFIC). 22p.