FAO/GIEWS - SPECIAL REPORT - CROP ASSESSMENT MISSION TO SOUTHERN SUDAN - 10 NOVEMBER 1995

OVERVIEW

A general improvement in the security situation brought hopes of an increase in crop production this year. Planted area in the traditional (smallholder) sector expanded as displaced persons were allocated land on a temporary basis, more land could be safely cultivated and seed availability improved as a result of distribution programmes. However, crop yields in all sectors were hit by a combination of pests, a late start to the season and unfavourable weather conditions. Production of the ma in food crops in the zone, sorghum, millet and maize, is estimated at 154 000 tons, some 6 percent down from last year. However, the late start to the season was beneficial for groundnut production: both planted area and yields increased.

This fall in crop production will aggravate what is already a precarious food situation. The 1995 crop will cover less than one-half of consumption requirements, calculated on the basis of regional historic norms. On-farm carryover stocks were foun d to be minimal in all the regions. The chances that commercial food trade will compensate for the drop in local production are slight as purchasing power is low and the weak infrastructure and long distances from supply sources make transportation costs extremely high. The harvest outcome is varied between States and within States: there may be some scope for donor financed local purchases to support food distribution programmes for internally displaced persons.

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY OF SOUTHERN SUDAN

The prolonged civil conflict has resulted in large numbers of deaths, massive displacement of population, important losses of cattle and reduced the level of agricultural activities due to insecurity and shortages of labour. The conflict has also d isrupted traditional trading patterns, closing trade routes to the north. The break-down of markets has mainly affected producers who depend on livestock sales for grain, but also those on surplus agriculture areas and the overall economy. There ha s been a general impoverishment of the population and a switch from livestock activities to subsistence agricultural production. Large sections of the population have become dependent on food aid and highly vulnerable to even small reductions in pr oduction due to natural hazards such as drought, floods or pests.

1995 CROP PRODUCTION

Planted Area

In the mechanized sector there was an overall decline of 16 percent in planted area compared with 1994. The unit costs of sorghum production have increased this year by an estimated 25 percent whereas output prices remain depressed in the Renk area , where the largest farms are concentrated. The opening up of new transport routes led to a major increase in market supplies in Malakal at planting time, which may have acted as a disincentive. Malakal is an important source of local demand. Heavy rainfall at the beginning of the season hampered land preparation and an estimated 50 percent of the total area was late planted.

In aggregate, plantings in Southern Sudan in 1995 (traditional and mechanized sectors), are estimated some 19 percent above the area of the previous year.

Yields

This season, rains started late in most areas. Localized flooding and consequent crop losses were reported in Bahr El-Gazal, where rains were heavy in August. Thereafter, rains were normal except for a dry spell in September. Excessive rainfall was received in much of the Upper Nile region in June and July, detrimental to emerging crops and cumulative rainfall was well above average in Malakal. In Renk however, cumulative rainfall was some 32 percent below the recent average. In Bahr El-Gebe l State (Equatoria) dry spells in the April-June period caused crop losses. The late start to the season led to a partial shift to lower yielding short-cycle sorghum varieties in the mechanized sector. There were reports that late deliveries and i nappropriate seed varieties have also undermined yield potential in some areas.

Unusually heavy rainfall resulted in higher than normal incidence of plant pests, notably Dura-Mitch, Green Dura Bug and Stem Borer in both sectors in Upper Nile. In the traditional sector the extension of planted area away from homesteads made the control of birds and wild animals difficult and resulted in further losses.

Sorghum yields are estimated to have fallen by 21 percent from the 1994 level in the traditional sector, and by 23 percent in the mechanized sector.

Cereal Production in 1995

The Mission's estimates for areas planted and crop production are presented in Table 1 and 2 below.

Table 1 - Cereal Production in the Southern States, 1995 ('000 tons)

Table 2 - Southern Sudan Cereal Area, Yield and Production by Crop and Sector, 1994/95-1995/96

CROP SITUATION BY REGION

Equatoria Region

Official estimates indicate a sharp increase in plantings, reflecting improved security conditions for cultivation as the areas under Government control expanded from 5 km around urban areas to 80 km. The expansion of areas planted included also th e ploughing of virgin areas, where yields obtained are higher.

There are normally two rainy seasons in this region. The first season starts in March/April but this year rains were late and dry spells occurred during the period April-June in most parts of the state, except in the province of Kajo-Kaji which exp erienced excessive rains. This had an adverse effect and in many cases led to complete failure of crops sown in the first season, mainly maize. Some 50 percent of the early sown maize was lost due to dry weather. Rains were better during the second rainy period in July-September, but were excessive in parts, adversely affecting late sown varieties of maize at the time of heading. Sorghum, which is planted later and is more resistant to dry spells than maize, was somewhat less affected by the late and erratic rains of the first season; the sorghum area lost to dry weather is estimated at 30 percent.

Yields of maize were also reduced by damage caused by birds and other pests and diseases, as well as striga. Yields varied from total crop failures to 1.1 tons per hectare. In the areas to be harvested, an average yield of some 0.5 tons per hectare is expected. The widely used local varieties of sorghum are long maturing and low yielding but more resistant to pests and diseases. However, yields of sorghum were affected by striga, stem borer, dura smut, dura mitch, as well as by birds and wil d animals, which are difficult to control as large extensions of the cultivated land are away from the households. The expected average yield of sorghum is estimated at 0.5 tons per hectare.

Groundnut, an important cash crop in the state, is sown in June/July and, therefore, was less affected by the dry weather.

Upper Nile Region

This region comprises the Upper Nile state, Jonglei state and Unity state. In the Upper Nile State, the Mission visited the capital Malakal and surrounding areas, Mohammed El-Jack mechanized farming schemes, Obels, and Nagdiar.

Two types of farming are practiced in the region: i) mechanized agriculture, concentrated mainly in Renk and, to a lesser extent, in Malakal area, where large schemes/holdings are found and ii) traditional agriculture with holdings of one hectare o r less; the most important growing areas are the Northern part of Upper Nile and Fashode Province. Sorghum is the main foodcrop is both types of agriculture. In addition, irrigated agriculture is practiced in old rice schemes near Malakal town and along parts of White Nile river. Main irrigated crops are vegetables. In the Upper Nile State, plantings in the traditional agriculture areas increased substantially this year due to the expansion of the peace zone that allowed more land to be saf ely cultivated; settlements were organized by the Government and seeds distributed. By contrast, in the mechanized farming schemes, heavy rains in Malakal area hindered agricultural operations resulting in reductions in the area planted and late so wing of half of the land with quick maturing varieties such as Gishaish and Gadam Hamman.

Most parts of Upper Nile state, with the exception of the very northern Renk area, received heavy rains during the season, particularly in June and July. The total rainfall in Malakal during the period March-September 1995 reached 803 mm exceeding the average of 1992-94 for the same period by 27 percent. For the month of July, rains were 107 percent above the average for the same month during 1992-94. In most areas, the excessive rains had adverse effect on the first season crops. In Renk an d Gaz Rom areas, precipitation during the period April-September 1995 was about one third below the 1992-94 average, negatively affecting yield potential. In many areas, an outbreak of pests and diseases due to heavy rainfall and late sowing furthe r reduced yields. Dura Mitch, Green Dura Bug, stem borer and striga were common. Birds and wild animals were also reported to have damaged crops.

Bahr El-Gazal Region

Main growing areas in the region are around the Wau town, the Bagari and Besselio areas, Marial Bai area and parts of the Raja province. Sorghum, cassava, pulses and maize are the most important foodcrops. Sesame and groundnut are also cultivated a s cash crops.

Excessive rains during the month of August in Bahr El-Gazal state resulted in floods and crop damage. In part of September there was a dry spell, and afterwards precipitation was normal. Pest infestations, mainly striga in areas surrounding Wau tow n due to successive cultivation of sorghum in the same land, caused a substantial reduction in yields. Dura Mitch and stem borer are rather common. Table 3 below summarizes areas planted and production of cereals by state and region.

Sector/State/Region	Sorghum		Maize
	Area	Production	Area	Production
	(ha)	(tons)	(ha)	(tons)
Total mechanized rainfed:	214 841	92 205	-	-
- Upper Nile State (Renk)	212 100	90 900	-	-
- Upper Nile State (Malakal)	2 741	1 305	-	-
Total traditional rainfed:	143 535	48 873	40 425	11 979
Upper Nile Region	92 610	29 568	10 920	1 258
- Upper Nile State	53 550	17 213	6 300	675
- Jonglei State	22 260	7 155	2 730	358
- Unity State	16 800	5 200	1 890	225
Equatoria Region	27 405	11 745	23 520	10 080
- Bahr El-Gebel State)
- Eastern Equatoria State)	15 120	8 100	5 250	2 250
- Western Equatoria State )
Bahr El-Gazal Region	23 520	7 560	5 985	641
- West Bahr El-Gazal State )
- North Bahr El-Gazal State)	9 408	3 024	1 260	135
- El-Buheirat Warab )
Southern Sudan Total of which:	358 376	141 078	40 425	11 979
- Upper Nile Region	307 451	121 773	10 920	1 258
- Equatoria Region	27 405	11 745	23 520	10 080
- Bahr El-Gazal Region	14 112	7 560	5 985	641

Table 3 - Southern Sudan Foodcrop Production, 1995/96 (continued)
Sector/State/Region	Millet		Total cereal production
	Area	Production
	(ha)	(tons)
Total mechanized rainfed:	336	72	92 277
- Upper Nile State (Renk)	336	72	90 972
- Upper Nile State (Malakal)	-	-	1 305
Total traditional rainfed:	5 804	606	61 457
Upper Nile Region	596	62	30 887
- Upper Nile State	420	45	17 933
- Jonglei State	100	10	7 522
- Unity State	76	7	5 432
Equatoria Region	4 200	400	22 225
- Bahr El-Gebel State)
- Eastern Equatoria State )	3 150	338	10 688
- Western Equatoria State )
Bahr El-Gazal Region	1 008	144	8 345
- West Bahr El-Gazal State )
- North Bahr El-Gazal State )	336	60	3 219
- El-Buheirat Warab )
Southern Sudan Total of which:	6 140	678	153 734
- Upper Nile Region	932	134	123 164
- Equatoria Region	4 200	400	22 225
- Bahr El-Gazal Region	1 008	144	8 345

FOOD SITUATION

Although the improved security situation has opened up food transport routes (including the barge to Juba) the long distances between the main deficit areas and supply sources means that transport costs and hence food prices are generally high. Tra nsport costs are also increased by high fuel costs and the weak infrastructure. As a consequence, price differentials between surplus and deficit areas are wide. For example, at the time of the Mission, sorghum prices in Wau (Bahr El-Gazar) were fi ve times higher than in the surplus area of Renk. There are, however, promising signs that private trade from Renk is picking up and the number of merchants operating between Renk and Malakal has increased. A large proportion of food deficit househ olds will remain vulnerable to high food prices as the purchasing power of the majority of the population has been sharply reduced due to the civil strife. Consequently, food aid will continue to be necessary during 1996 for farmers who gathered a poor harvest, for substantial numbers of displaced people and in civil war-affected areas.

Surplus production from the mechanized sector in Renk is traditionally transported north. There may be some scope for donor financed local purchases in Renk to support food distribution programmes for internally displaced persons and vulnerable gro ups elsewhere. This would have the additional benefit of supporting producer prices in an area where they are depressed.

Livestock is important for food security in the Southern States, as meat and milk form part of the basic diet of the population. While accurate information on livestock numbers is lacking, it is clear that stocks have suffered the negative conseque nces of civil strife and the disruption of veterinary services. In Bahr El-Gazar supplies of livestock products to Wau are reported to be erratic although there has been an increase in cattle numbers in western areas as a result of migration from S outhern Darfur. In Upper Nile, data from a vaccination programme suggests that there has been a 14 percent reduction in the cattle population as a result of endemic diseases.

Distributed seed accounts for high proportion of total use: as much as 75 percent in Bahr El-Gebel. The Mission stressed the importance of timely distribution of seeds to avoid their use for food consumption in the lean period in the run up to the next harvest.