SPECIAL REPORT - FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO SUDAN - 22 DECEMBER 1995

OVERVIEW

Full cooperation was received from the Government's Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Animal Wealth (MANRAW) and from the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) at both federal and state levels, and from other concerned Ministries and parastatal organizations. In addition, the Mission consulted with all the main bilateral and multilateral organizations, and with NGO representations. Information on cropped areas and anticipated production was obtained at state level, with mod ifications by the Mission from field inspections, discussions with farmers and data on rainfall, pest and weed incidence, input supplies and prices.

The Mission forecasts the 1995 harvest of sorghum and millet at 3.31 million tons, some 26 percent below last year's exceptional crop but 2 percent above the benchmark 5-year average of 1988/89-1992/93. This 1995 forecast includes new information o n production from the southern states which suggests under-reporting in earlier years. Allowing for this discontinuity in the series, the 1995 sorghum and millet crop is very close to the 1988/89-1992/93 average. Compared with last year, sorghum pr oduction will be down by 12 percent, mainly due to drops in planted area in both the mechanized and irrigated sectors. In the case of millet, production will be 46 percent less than last year's record crop, with millet area down by 18 percent and y ields down by 33 percent.

Smaller plantings of both cereals were due to economic factors (less profitable production compared with cash crops, and reduced availability of credit), poor rains at the start of the season and early damage by grasshoppers and rodents. The irriga ted sorghum area was also affected by a change in the crop rotation in some schemes. Yields of all crops were affected by poor mid-season rains, pest damage and more weed competition than normal, partly due to reduced weeding as a means of saving o n production costs. On the other hand, many crops benefited from greater use of improved varieties and from favourable September rains. Irrigated crops have generally yielded well, whilst the mechanized sector has achieved slightly below-normal yie lds. Traditional crop yields were well down on last year, although close to the long term average.

Stocks of both sorghum and millet are lower than expected following the 1994/95 bumper harvest due to higher than normal consumption and exports and a revised sorghum production estimate. With a reduced crop expected for 1995/96, supplies will be tight. This is already reflected in high prices for both cereals which reached record levels in the pre-harvest period of October 1995. Since then there has been some easing of prices but renewed rises are expected early in 1996. The harvest is gen erally late due to heavy replantings caused by pest damage and early rain failures.

By contrast, preparations for the coming wheat crop are well advanced, with an area of 318 000 hectares expected to be planted by mid-December (up 14 percent on 1994/95 and slightly ahead of the long term average). Although there may be some local shortages of fertilizers, the early plantings of wheat are expected to produce average yields, given a normal season. The Mission's tentative forecast for wheat is 0.53 million tons, some 19 percent higher than last year and 2 percent up from the 1 988/89-1992/93 average.

This would put national production of all cereals in 1995/96 at 3.85 million tons, 22 percent down from last year or 2 percent higher than the 5-year average. Bearing in mind the increasing population (consuming an incremental 100 000 tons annually ), supplies are likely to be adequate but tight overall. There will be no capacity for exports in 1996, and seed and feed usage is expected to fall compared with last year. Allowing for a 73 000 ton drawdown in private stocks, imports of 519 000 to ns of cereals are required to achieve normal consumption, 11 percent more than last year's imports. Considering the Sudanese economy and its trade deficit, there are concerns about the country's ability to finance such an import level, given the hi gh world prices for wheat. Some 441 000 tons of imports are tentatively forecast on commercial terms in 1995/96.

A total of 61 396 tons of emergency food aid (48 938 tons of cereals and 12 458 tons of non-cereal foods) will be required for a maximum of some 2 122 000 persons for 1996. The beneficiaries include war-affected and displaced people in the northern sector, the transitional zones and the southern sector; populations along the north-south river and rail corridors whose access to food is likely to be impaired due to the shifting activities of the on-going civil war, and, women and children enro lled in supplementary feeding programmes. Whereas no additional food contributions were required in 1995 due to significant carryover stocks, a quantity of 27 451 tons (24 137 tons of cereals and 3 314 tons of non-cereal food) will be necessary for 1996. International assistance will continue to be required to support the logistics of moving commodities and the initiatives to improve the quality of assessment, monitoring and accountability.

Cereal production will be particularly low in North and West Kordofan and North Darfur and these states will experience severe deficits which must be met from other surplus states. Although the current high livestock numbers, good pastures and reas onable livestock prices suggest that populations should be able to purchase cereals in these three states, the situation should be carefully monitored. If the terms of trade between livestock and cereals deteriorate, assistance may be needed to su pport the movement of grain from surplus areas to the west. Nearly 500 000 tons of cereal transfers into these three deficit states will be necessary for the populations to achieve normal consumption in 1995/96 before allowing for any depletion of stocks.

There will also be food deficits in the South, despite reasonable crops in some states. However these deficits are unlikely to be met by the commercial sector due to the high cost and limited availability of transportation, and the limited purchasi ng power of the population.

FOOD AVAILABILITY IN 1995/96 (NOVEMBER/OCTOBER)

On the other hand, more improved seed was used than ever before, particularly in the irrigated sector. During the season, the rainfall pattern was highly variable between regions but, generally, amounts were below last year's good rains, although w ell distributed. Weed competition has been severe, especially in mechanized sorghum, and grasshoppers have continued to damage the crop, together with sorghum midge late in the season. Most crops are late, with less than half the sorghum and millet crop cut at the time of the Mission's visit. Final yields will be drastically below last year in the case of millet but close to last year for sorghum. Compared to the 5-year benchmark average (1988/89-1992/93), 1995 yields are similar for millet and 15 percent lower for sorghum. Irrigated sorghum production will be 21 percent lower than 1994 due to the reduced area, but only 5 percent lower than the 5-year benchmark. Mechanized sorghum production (half of the total volume produced) is 25 p ercent down on last year because of the smaller areas planted, and 26 percent lower than the 5-year average. The biggest change however is in the traditional sector which enjoyed a record year in 1994. Traditional millet production is down 46 perce nt and traditional sorghum down 12 percent compared with last year, although the output is still higher than the 5-year average.

Overall, millet and sorghum production is forecast at 3.314 million tons -- 26 percent less than in 1994 but 2 percent more than the benchmark 5-year average. This includes new estimates of cereal production from the southern states which suggest a degree of under-reporting in the past. This statistical effect amounts to nearly 100 000 tons which, if eliminated, would imply a total crop very close to the 5-year average.

Land preparation for wheat, to be harvested in March/April 1996, is more advanced than usual due to strong price incentives (reflecting world prices) and efforts by Government to encourage planting in the irrigated areas. By mid-December, it is exp ected that 318 000 hectares will be planted, some 14 percent up on last year but not a record. Despite some limits on fertilizer supplies and a lower water table along the Nile, the early planting is expected to boost yields, given an average seaso n without abnormally high temperatures. On this basis, the Mission has tentatively forecast wheat production for 1995/96 at 0.531 million tons, 2 percent up on the 5-year average but still below the record 1991/92.

Total cereal production for 1995/96 is therefore forecast at 3.855 million tons, some 2 percent higher than the 5-year average or similar to this average if allowance is made for new approaches to estimating production from the South.

Table 1 shows the Mission's forecast of crop production by state and sector with 1994/95 comparisons and Table 2 indicates the longer time series.

	Sorghum 1/		Millet		Wheat		Total grains 1/		95/96 over 94/95 (%)
	94/95	95/96	94/95	95/96	94/95	95/96	94/95	95/96
Irrigated
Northern	14	15			114	145	128	160	26
Nile	70	47			42	68	112	115	3
Blue Nile	20	29					20	29	43
White Nile	36	26			15	11	51	37	-27
Gezira and Menagil	327	315			230	240	557	555	0
Rahad	63	56			21	24	84	80	-4
Suki	18	13					18	13	-27
New Halfa	35	25			23	39	58	63	8
Gash	62	27					62	27	-57
Tokar	9	4	2	2			11	6	-45
Khartoum	1	1					1	1	-41
Kassala (other)	60	4					60	4	-93
'Total irrigated production	715	562	2	2	445	527	1 162	1 091	-6
Total harvested area (000 ha)	484	328	4	3	275	314	764	645	-16
Mechanized rainfed
Kassala	18	93					18	93	431
Gedaref	916	518	4	5			920	523	-43
Damazin	129	122	1	3			130	124	-5
Sennar	432	405	1	1			433	406	-6
White Nile	250	201	3	1			253	202	-20
South Kordofan	121	62	1	1			122	63	-48
Upper Nile	68	41	0	0			69	41	-40
South Darfur	1	3					1	3	170
Total mechanized	1 935 1	444	10	11			1 945	1 456	-25
Total harvested area (000 ha)	3 953 3	35	32	30			3 985	3 064	-23
Traditional rainfed
Gezira	227	108					227	108	-52
Blue Nile	32	54	1	1			33	55	65
Sennar	7	45	3	15			10	60	514
White Nile	56	58	4	2			60	60	0
Kassala	18	26					18	26	45
Nile	18	32					18	32	80
North Kordofan	52	14	193	15			245	29	-88
South Kordofan	123	61	53	32			176	93	-47
West Kordofan	69	29	169	10			238	39	-84
North Darfur	15	0	180	16			195	16	-92
South Darfur	121	99	234	30	6 2	4	357	409	15
West Darfur	114	78	123	11	9		237	197	-17
Southern states	36	174	1	1			37	185	399
Total traditional prod.	888	788	961	51	6 2	4	1 851	1 308	-29
Total harvested area (000 ha)	1 856 1	835	3 201	2 61	5 3	4	5 060	4 454	-12
National prod.	3 538 2	795	973	52	9 447	531	4 958	3 855	-22
Nat. harvested area (000 ha)	6 294 5	198	3 237	2 64	8 278	318	9 808	8 164	-17

1/ Includes small amounts of maize and rice.

Note: Although production figures are given to the nearest 1 000 tons, percentage changes have been calculated on the basis of the nearest 10 tons.

Crop/Sector	Area ('000 ha)
	Average 88/89- 92/93	93/94	94/95	95/96
Sorghum 1/
Irrigated	415	373	484	328
Mechanized	3 248	3 316	3 953	3 035
Traditional	1 005	994	1 856	1 835
Total	4 668	4 684	6 294	5 198
Millet
Irrigated	3	1	4	3
Mechanized	52	68	32	30
Traditional	1 399	992	3 201	2 615
Total	454	1 061	3 237	2 648
Wheat	310	354	278	318
All cereals	6 433	6 098	9 808	8 164
Crop/Sector	Yield (kg/ha)
	Average 88/89- 92/93	93/94	94/95	95/96
Sorghum 1/
Irrigated	1 423	1 588	1 476	1 715
Mechanized	605	444	490	476
Traditional	397	321	478	429
Total	633	509	562	538
Millet
Irrigated	681	714	429	536
Mechanized	442	394	328	384
Traditional	195	194	299	197
Total	205	207	300	200
Wheat	1 674	1 304	1 610	1 669
All cereals	586	503	505	472
Crop/Sector	Production (000 tons)
	Average 88/89- 92/93	93/94	94/95	95/96
Sorghum 1/
Irrigated	591	593	715	562
Mechanized	1 964	1 473	1 935	1 444
Traditional	399	319	888	788
Total	2 954	2 385	3 538	2 795
Millet
Irrigated	2	1	2	2
Mechanized	23	27	10	11
Traditional	273	192	961	516
Total	298	220	973	529
Wheat	519	461	447	531
All cereals	3 771	3 066	4 958	3 855

1/ Includes small amounts of maize and rice.

1995 CROPPING SEASON

Irrigation
The country's two main delta schemes at Gash and Tokar both received less flooding than usual this year, resulting in a reduction of cropped area on both schemes. The high cost of mechanized levelling and earth-moving for flood-control has also led to inefficient use of the available water. The New Halfa scheme has had to limit its cropped area to accommodate the diminishing capacity of the dam at Khashm-el-Girba due to silting. The Rahad scheme has been partially constrained by the non-func tioning of several of its pumps. Water delivery at Gezira, however, has been satisfactory. On the pump schemes in White Nile State, shortages of lubricating oil, fuel and spare parts resulted in moisture stress and reduced yields. The area under ir rigated wheat in Northern State is to be expanded by approximately 20 000 hectares this winter. As yet, fuel and pumping capacity are considered to be adequate for the increased irrigation requirements through to March 1996.

Field conditions
Striga infestation has been locally more severe this year than usual, especially in areas of mechanized rainfed sorghum production. The high cost of weeding and the low availability of credit have frequently resulted in yield-limiting levels of inf estation by annual weeds. On the irrigated schemes, especially at Tokar, Gash and New Halfa, invasion of productive land by mesquite has been a serious problem this year.

Pests and diseases
1995 was a bad year for grasshopper damage throughout the country and at all stages of crop development. Some locust swarms appeared in Darfur and Red Sea states but these were effectively controlled with little resulting crop loss. In North and We st Kordofan and North Darfur rodent damage was particularly severe resulting in large areas being re-planted several times, and considerable crop loss. The large rodent population would appear to be the result of the unusually large amounts of grai n in the area following last year's extremely good millet harvest. Sorghum midge and blister beetle were significant in several areas. Millet headworm was important in the drier millet-producing areas, less so in areas of higher rainfall.

Levels of most cereal diseases were normal during 1995. The exception was downy mildew which contributed to the serious yield reductions of millet in the west.

Input supply
Fertilizer supplies were generally down on last year in most irrigated areas because of high prices and slow deliveries, but sorghum yields have benefited from other factors such as early planting. Some fertilizer deliveries have still to be receiv ed in the wheat-growing areas, but it is expected that the expanded wheat area will receive adequate amounts on time.

Seed was in good supply, following last year's good harvest, but in the drier and pest-affected areas, loss of seed due to repeated re-sowing was considerable. There was a marked increase in the use of improved varieties, especially in the irrigate d schemes.

Yields
National sorghum yields in 1995 were about 4.6 percent lower than those achieved in 1994, and 15 percent lower than the 5-year average for 1988/89-92/93. The main cause of reduced sorghum production in 1995 was the fall in cropped area.

National millet yields were only 66 percent of those of the previous year, and production was again further reduced by the smaller areas planted. Yield reductions were especially serious in North and West Kordofan and in North Darfur. However, desp ite the reduction on last year's exceptional yields, this year's national millet yields were close to the 5-year average (1988/89-1992/93), mainly because of good crops in West and South Darfur.

Wheat yields on established areas are expected to be higher in 1995/96 on account of earlier sowing and adequate fertilizer and seed supplies. Nationally, however, it is expected that the yield increase will be slight, since a large proportion of p lanting will be on new land where only moderate yields can be anticipated because of low organic matter content and possible yield reductions due to salinity.

Pasture and livestock
The poor rainfall distribution which contributed to serious grain yield reductions in North and West Kordofan and North Darfur did not have the same effect on pasture, and the pasture situation in these predominantly pastoralist areas is considered adequate, with the condition and health of livestock generally good at present. This is not the case, however, in much of Red Sea State where livestock numbers have built up again after the drought of 1991. Here, pasture and fodder are in very s hort supply and the avoidance of a serious livestock situation depends on the arrival of adequate winter rains.

Cereal Production Forecast
With the reduced area planted compared with last year and generally smaller yields, production will be down. The aggregate production of all cereals is forecast at 3.855 million tons -- 22 percent less than 1994/95 but 2 percent higher than the 5-y ear average, 1988/89-1992/93.

PRICES

Prevailing wheat prices also reflect world levels since half of national wheat consumption is normally imported. With world prices at record levels and a depreciating currency, internal wheat prices are approaching _Sud 200 000 per ton -- 30 percen t higher than the floor prices set by the Government two months ago to encourage wheat plantings. Farmers are responding to this strong incentive by planting large areas for harvest in March/April 1996.

CROP SITUATION BY REGION