• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1997/98
• 3.1 Rainfall During the 1997/98 Cropping Season
• 3.2 Area Planted
• 3.3 Agricultural Inputs
• 3.4 Cereal Yields and Production
• 3.5 Other Crops
• 3.6 Pastures and Livestock
• 4. SITUATION BY REGION/PROVINCE
• 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION FOR 1998/99
• 5.1 Cereal supply/demand balance
• 5.2 Emergency Food Aid Requirements

Although Afghanistan has been only around 70 percent self-sufficient in cereals during most of this decade, there is evidence of rising production in the last two or three years, as a result of greater security in some areas. Following the 1997 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which estimated last year’s national cereal production to be the highest for several years, an FAO/WFP Mission, supported by UNDP, was fielded to Afghanistan from 4-27 May 1998, to estimate the 1998 cereal harvest and cereal import requirements for the 1998/99 marketing year, to ascertain whether the rising trend towards self-sufficiency observed in 1997 was continuing and to assess the regional food situation within the country. Particular attention was to be focused on

Bamyan and Badakshan, traditional food deficit areas almost completely cut off from their normal supply routes. The Mission visited 15 of the 30 provinces, mostly in the west and the east of the country, including Bamyan and Badakshan. The north was not visited for security reasons and it proved impossible to include the south-west in the itinerary. However, the coverage was extended by a survey of 1 600 farmers conducted by the local missions, extending into a number of regions not visited by the Mission.

Extensive discussions were held with staff of UNDP, WFP, FAO and various NGOs, both in Afghanistan and in Islamabad and Peshawar. Various reports on Afghanistan were critically reviewed, including the results of the survey of farmers. The Mission used the statistical base formulated by the 1997 FAO/WFP Mission, when the regional cropped areas were estimated using an extrapolation of the 1968 agricultural census data with modifications based on two more recent satellite surveys and further adjustments by the team. Yield estimates were based on the field visits, the farmer survey results and discussions with many farmers, and on the various agronomic factors which have affected this year’s outturn. Cereal production estimates for both 1997 and 1998 were cross-checked against estimates of national consumption and imports, using a balance sheet approach.

The recovery of agriculture in peaceful areas of the country continued in 1998 and overall cereal production has again increased. The Mission has estimated the 1998 total cereal production at 3.85 million tonnes, 5 percent higher than last year, comprising 2.83 million tonnes of wheat, 450 000 tonnes of paddy, 330 000 tonnes of maize and 240 000 tonnes of barley. The 1998 harvest is the largest since 1978, although some localized areas suffered from extensive flooding which damaged both standing crops and irrigation infrastructures. The increase in harvest was due to farmers’ responses to high prices of last year (above US$300 per tonne) which encouraged farmers to plant relatively more areas of wheat, and to generally favourable precipitation during winter and spring. In addition, improved security in many areas and some limited progress in agricultural rehabilitation have also contributed to the good harvest.

However, above-normal humidity has led to high levels of Yellow Rust (Puccinia striiformis) in wheat, which has depressed yields considerably. The combination of localized flooding (e.g. in the south-west and sporadically in the north-west) and the widespread incidence of rust has resulted in a decline of yields of irrigated crops.

Whilst irrigated cereal production is slightly lower than last year’s good crop, rainfed wheat production is forecast to be up by 29 percent. This may as in 1997, lead to local surpluses in the North, since the traditional movement of grain to Kabul and the south is impeded by several front lines. Low wheat prices have already been reported in Kunduz. Such surpluses may well lead to exports into the CIS countries and to higher than normal carryover stocks. The eight northern provinces (North and Northeast in Table 1) are forecast to produce around 1.5 million tonnes of cereals this year (40 percent of the total) on the assumption of relative security over the next few months. However, if the intensity of military activities increases or the conflict widens, harvest could be interrupted and the forecast would have to be revised downwards.

Despite a favourable outlook for this year’s cereal harvest, large imports will be required to feed the growing population. Total imports are forecast at 740 000 tonnes for the 1998/99 marketing year (July/June), slightly higher than last year. The Mission has estimated the 1998/99 emergency food aid at 140 000 tonnes of wheat, as a result of an increase in emergency needs attributed to floods, earthquakes and blocked supply routes in some areas.
 

The country's natural resources include natural gas with reserves estimated at 150 billion cubic metres; oil, conservatively estimated at 100 million barrels, and coal. Only the latter is currently being exploited on any scale. Although the terrain is high, dry and rugged, there are productive valleys well suited to a range of crops under irrigation. Agriculture has always been a major sector of the economy contributing about 50 percent to GDP. Today, it is even more significant, being the main source of output, employment and incomes since the demise of industry and gas exports as a result of the war. Although handicapped by war damage and locally by mines, agriculture is recovering following the relative peace of the last three years in the south of the country.

However, the 19-year continuous civil conflict has taken a heavy toll on the Afghan people. At the peak of the unrest in the early 1990s, an estimated 30 percent of the population had fled the country or were internally displaced. Since 1992, about 3 million of the 6 million expatriate Afghans have returned. Much of the population suffers from the after-effects of civil unrest - the number of disabled, widowed, orphaned and unemployed are among the highest in the world. Afghanistan ranks almost last in the Human Development Index of UNDP, and it has some of the highest figures in the world for infant and maternal mortality, life expectancy, and lowest as regards access to health care and safe water. Coping mechanisms which have enabled the disadvantaged to survive and avoid a famine situation are becoming over-stretched in areas directly affected by the ongoing conflict.

The collapse of industry and the need to finance the military effort led to a serious fall in output and trade, very high inflation and a steep and continuous drop in the currency's value until recently, when the situation in the south of the country became more stable and food prices became less volatile. In Taliban-controlled areas, exports of horticultural produce to Pakistan have increased and there are signs of a return to more normal commercial life, particularly in the east and south, and in Herat. Kabul, where the infrastructure has been severely damaged, is only 25 km from the front line, and the flow of food from the north is no longer possible. In the north, where the conflict continues, the economy is more inflationary.

The international community has been extremely active in Afghanistan, not only in trying to broker a peace settlement, but also in relief, rehabilitation, de-mining and development (particularly in agriculture). At the World Food Summit in November 1996, a draft strategy for National Agricultural Development was presented and, since then, an International Forum on Assistance to Afghanistan was held in Ashgabat in January 1997, followed by a UN Consolidated Appeal for Assistance.

In terms of agriculture and food production, there is some return to normality in areas where there is security from conflict and banditry. In the Taliban-held areas, the freer movement of traffic has facilitated the operation of markets and commerce. Inputs are available and produce markets appear to be operating fairly efficiently. The 1998 growing season is one of the best in many years and livestock numbers are steadily recovering. Much remains to be done in the agricultural sector, but the evidence is that farmers are responding to the improved situation, except in areas where conflict and blockades disrupt trading channels and in those affected by natural disasters (i.e., earthquake, floods).

3.1 Rainfall During the 1997/98 Cropping Season

Floods in parts of Kandahar and Helmand provinces in March caused localized crop damage. Parts of Nimroz and Uruzgan also suffered flood damage. Floods have also affected crops in the northern provinces of Samangan and Jowzjan, where an estimated 3 000 hectares were destroyed. But the heavy rains benefited those areas which are at the end of canal irrigation systems and also rainfed wheat crops all over the country.

Rainfall in Herat was reported to be well distributed and ample for the rainfed wheat crop, also ensuring good crops in all irrigated areas. Rainfall continued up to harvest time in Kunar and Laghman provinces but stopped in time to permit harvesting in good conditions. In the north, heavier than normal rains are reported to have benefited most rainfed crops, including wheat.

3.2 Area Planted

On the other hand, competition for land with poppy is increasing. Poppy cultivation increased significantly in Nangarhar and in Badakshan. Lack of wheat seed in Bamyan following a disastrous harvest in 1997 in this area, allied to the effects of the blockade and of serious local flooding, reduced the area sown to wheat. Increasing use of land for vegetable cultivation in the East in particular, is reducing the amount of land available for irrigated wheat. The cold spring and consequent late melting of snow reduced spring wheat areas in Bamyan, and in parts of Paktika and Ghazni.

3.3 Agricultural Inputs

Fertilizers and Pesticides: Most farmers in Afghanistan are well aware of the value of fertilizers. However, lack of cash is a major constraint to increased usage of both urea and DAP, the main fertilizer types. Farmers thus tend to use much less than the recommended amounts. In 1998, supplies of DAP were reduced in much of the country. Traders in Ghazni reported that demand had slipped compared to the previous year, due mainly to the blockade on the supply of inputs to Bamyan Province, traditionally a large market. Fertilizer prices increased to about 6 200 Afghanis/kg (urea) in the eastern provinces. But in the blockade-affected Bamyan Province, prices for urea more than doubled, due mainly to increased transport costs caused by insecurity along the roads to the north and the blockade to the east. This severely reduced usage of fertilizer on wheat as farmers could not afford them at such prices. Farmers in Bamyan still continued to use some fertilizers on the potato crop, as they are aware that without them yields decline sharply. Poor quality of fertilizers was reported by some farmers, with salt being added to urea by unscrupulous traders.

The severe weed problems on many farms have prompted farmers to purchase herbicides from dealers. Farmers are not weeding fields of wheat by hand in the larger land holdings, presumably due to labour constraints. Some hand weeding was being done in parts of Ghazni, Bamyan and Wardak. However, weed control is absolute in poppy fields.

Tractors and Oxen: The use of tractors continues to increase, allowing ever larger areas, particularly of dryland wheat, to be cultivated in the East, Southeast, Southwest and West regions. No shortage of animal draught was reported by farmers. Mechanized threshing is now general in the east of the country, saving labour of both farmers and animals and allowing quicker land preparation for summer crops (maize, rice and mung beans).

Irrigation: Over half of the land area in Afghanistan receives less than 300 mm of rainfall annually. So, agriculture depends highly on irrigation and on the melted snow in the spring for the rainfed wheat in the north and west areas of the country. Due to climatic constraints, only an estimated 14 percent of irrigated land can be double cropped, mainly in Takhar, Kunduz, Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman, Kandahar and Helmand provinces.

Limited repair projects for irrigation infrastructures were carried out in 1998. However, routine maintenance and repair of canals and karezes continued in many areas of the country. Above-normal rainfall this year reduced the need for irrigation and moisture was sufficient for crops sown at the end of canal systems. Heavy floods in the major rivers caused damage to irrigation inlets and caused siltation of fields in several provinces, including Helmand, Kandahar, Kunar, Bamyan and Badghis.

In recent years, farmers in Ghazni province have begun to invest in diesel pumps to provide irrigation water from deep wells, but dealers reported that demand for pumps in 1998 was reduced, due to favourable rainfall.

Problems with blocked kareze irrigation systems were reported from Ghazni, Paktia and Paktika, resulting in farmers failing to produce enough food from their land and forcing them to seek other jobs in Pakistan to earn additional cash to meet family needs.

3.4 Cereal Yields and Production

Maize: Maize is grown as a summer crop following winter wheat in the Central, East and South-east regions and in some areas of Kandahar. Planting had only just begun during the mission’s visit and the planted area is expected to be similar to that of the previous year at about 200 000 hectares. The crop is sown at a very high seed rate, with the thinning being used as animal fodder. Water availability was better than usual, due to high river flows augmented by melted snow and this, together with good fertilizer availability, should ensure better than average crops.

Rice: The first rice fields for the summer crop were being planted during the mission’s visit. The main crop will be planted in June and water availability is above average. The availability of fertilizer and other inputs, including improved seed is also good. Rice is an important crop in Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman, Takhar, Kunduz and Herat.

Barley: Barley is mainly grown in the higher altitude areas of Bamyan, Badakhshan and Ghor, Takhar and Kunduz. Most is grown for livestock, but barley is also an important human food in Bamyan Province.

3.5 Other Crops

Vegetable production is becoming very important in Laghman and other provinces which are near to Pakistan and to the city markets of Kabul and Jalalabad. Onions and cucumbers are the main crops produced. Farmers can pay much higher rent for land for vegetable production than for wheat. Poppy cultivation increased substantially in 1998, due to a combination of factors, including the availability of credit for inputs such as fertilizer, which gives a major advantage to this crop compared to wheat. Some farmers in Nangarhar reported that the yields of the crop were low due to the damp cool conditions during the growing season.

Potatoes: Potatoes are a major crop in Bamyan, Wardak, Paktia, Logar, Ghazni, Herat, Farah, Kabul, Paktika, Nangarhar and Baghlan. The potato crop is also a major cash crop in Bamyan. Due to the blockade of the Hazarajat area, farmers in Bamyan were unable to sell potatoes outside the province, as they would normally do, with the proceeds being used to buy grain and other necessities. As a result, potato prices collapsed in Bamyan and many crops were damaged by the severe winter weather. Elsewhere, potato prices were also reported to be very low, following a very good 1997 harvest. No potato processing technology is used to preserve the crop, making it solely dependent on the fresh market. Grasshoppers were seen to be causing defoliation of potato crops in Laghman and Kunar Provinces and this will have an adverse effect on yields.

Pulse Crops: Mung beans are an important summer crop in many provinces, including Kunar, Nangarhar and Laghman. Chick peas, cowpeas, field peas and various types of beans are also important throughout the country.

3.6 Pastures and Livestock

There is a structural deficiency of livestock feed in Afghanistan. Crops of clover and alfalfa are widely grown for stock, but these compete with food crops for scarce land and so, production is very limited in many provinces. Wheat straw and chaff, together with various wild plants are the major sources of winter feed. This year, with the extended winter, feed supplies were exhausted and livestock suffered severe starvation. Some farmers reported outbreaks of abortion, but according to the FAO Livestock Project staff these could have been a result of malnutrition rather than being caused by Brucellosis. Large numbers of grasshoppers were seen damaging crops of alfalfa and clover in the East Region, but no insecticides were being used to control them. Good crops of alfalfa were being cut during the Mission’s visit in many provinces.

North-East Region: This Region consists of four provinces namely Kunduz, Takhar, Badakhshan, and Baghlan. It comprises 15 percent of the country’s population. The Mission did not visit this region due to the security situation.

North Region: This Region includes Balkh, Samangan, Jaozjan, Faryab. Fifteen percent of the total population lives in this region which was not visited by the Mission due to the security situation.

West Region: This Region consists of three provinces namely Herat, Farah, Badghis. Its population represents 9 percent of the total population. The Mission visited this region.

East Central Region: This Region comprises two provinces namely Ghor and Bamyan. Five percent of the total population lives in this Region. Each of the two provinces was visited by the Mission.

Central Region: This Region includes five provinces namely Kabul, Parwan, Kapisa, Wardak, Logar. It has 20 percent of the total population.

East Region: This Region comprises three provinces namely Nangarhar, Laghman, Kunar. Eleven percent of the total population lives in this province.

South Region: This Region includes four provinces namely Paktia, Paktika, Ghazni and Khost. Its population represents 10 percent of the total.

Southwest Region: This Region includes Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul, Nimroz, and Uruzgan. It comprises 15 percent of the total population.

North-East Region

The Mission paid particular attention to Badakshan. Rainfall in Badakshan was well distributed and adequate for the dryland wheat crop, which is usually planted in November/December and harvested in July. Erosion is a serious problem as the natural vegetation has been removed for firewood and building poles with no replanting being done. Infiltration of rain is reduced, leading to flash flooding which causes severe erosion in fields and deposition of stones, silt and gravel on the valley bottoms. In 1998, heavy rains caused some local flood damage to crops and siltation of fields.

Some potatoes, melons and vegetables are also planted in Badakshan. Due to conflicts and to landslides which continually cut the main supply route to the provinces of Takhar and Kunduz, normal trade patterns for fertilizer were disrupted during the year, resulting in much higher prices for urea. The road to Tajikistan in the north is closed to most trade. Most wheat crops were infested with weeds, partly because most labour was involved in weeding the more lucrative poppy crop and partly because young men were involved in military activities away from the farm.

The region has been hit by two severe earthquakes in 1998. The first, in February, severely damaged villages between 5 and 20 km east and south of Rustaq in Takhar province. The infrastructure and some irrigation works were damaged but the effect on crop production was relatively small, this being predominantly a rainfed area, and the event occurred before spring planting. The second earthquake occurred on 30 May 1998, just after the mission had left the country. Its epicentre was at Shar e Buzurg in Badakhshan some 30 km north east of Rustaq and a similar distance north west of Faizabad. But its effects were felt over a wider area than in February, and after-shocks continued for several days after the main event. Heavy loss of life occurred from Rustaq to the outskirts of Faizabad, and many villages were devastated in this well-populated area between the two towns and north to the Tajikistan border. International emergency services were immediately involved in air-lifting victims to available hospitals in the area, and providing medicines, tents and blankets. Food assistance was delivered to stranded communities who had lost stocks of food.

In Badakshan, food scarcity and very high prices for grain are also caused by lack of access to normal trade routes, including north to Tajikistan. Landslides caused by quickly melting snow and heavy rain have blocked the traditional supply routes to Takhar and Kunduz to the west. Prospects for the current wheat crop are reasonably favourable due the benefit of heavy rains on a largely rainfed crop. On the other hand, heavy weed infestations are a problem in wheat, and there is strong competition for labour from the lucrative and expanding poppy crop. Fertilizer use on wheat will also be down as supplies will be limited due to access problems. Areas planted to wheat will be up in Bedakshan, and yields may be slightly above average. But even with good provincial food production, deficits will continue to arise unless access and markets can be opened up later this year.

The effect of the second earthquake on 1998 food production will be greater than in February because of the wider area affected and the timing of the earthquake early in the growing season. The mission’s field survey had collected optimistic reports on expected irrigated wheat yields in Takhar and Badakhshan but these will now require some downward revision. Irrigation canals and karezes have been damaged and the output of irrigated crops will be severely affected locally on both sides of the Takhar/Badakhshan border.

The much more important rainfed crops will be less affected, and there may still be very good dryland wheat crops which have benefited from heavy spring rains. The problem may well be a shortage of labour for weed control and harvest in the affected areas where people have been displaced or are fully occupied in rebuilding their homes.

Overall, the yield of the main dryland wheat crop in North East region is expected to increase from 0.6 tonnes/hectare in 1997 to 0.7 tonnes/hectare in 1998.

North Region

Weather conditions were very favourable for the dryland wheat crop and estimated cropped area increased by 14 percent to 250 000 hectares, with yields estimated at 0.9 tonnes/hectare, compared to 0.7 tonnes/hectare in the previous season. However, severe storms were reported on 7 April in the surplus producing provinces of Jawzjan and Samangan. An estimated 3 000 hectares of wheat crops were reported to have been destroyed. Production of irrigated wheat is estimated at 420 000 tonnes, a decline of 10 percent compared to 1997, mainly due to a decline in yields caused by Yellow Rust and local storm damage.
 

West Region

This is an important region for wheat, with irrigated crops mainly along the rivers in Farah and Herat accounting for 15 percent of the national area, and dryland wheat, mainly in Badghis, representing 24 percent of the country’s rainfed wheat land. As in most of the country, winter snows have been heavy and spring rainfall well above average. Flooding has occurred in Farah from the Gulistan mountains, affecting crops in Bakwah, Balabaluk and Lash e Juwain districts where there have been heavy losses of crops. Floods in Herat have been more scattered, but on 18 May, a major storm caused considerable damage in Badghis to an area from Qadis to Turgundi and further west. Initial estimates put hail damage to wheat at 24 000 hectares (40 percent loss) around Qalinow. Despite this heavy precipitation, the net effect of above-normal rainfall this year has been beneficial. Irrigated crops mostly have had ample water flows (except storm-damaged irrigation structures), and rainfed crops will benefit from larger areas planted and better yields. Irrigated wheat in Herat appeared exceptionally good during the mission’s visit with a still larger incidence of improved varieties and good use of fertilizer (both DAP and urea are readily available in Herat city). Farmers were largely optimistic and the Survey suggests an increase in yield, mainly because of better water supplies. Yellow rust is less severe than in the east of the country. However, in the mountainous and food deficit district of Cheshti Sharif (160 km east of Herat), serious problems of rust and smut were reported during the Survey and yields will be reduced. Areas planted to rainfed crops were also well above average, especially in Badghis. White cumin plantings have risen but the total rainfed cropped area has increased so much that the area sown to wheat has also increased. There are still risks of Sunn pest in the dryland wheat crops and weeds are more prevalent this year, but crop disease is negligible. Dryland wheat farmers are predicting multiplication rates of 10 to 20 times - much higher than usual. Cereal prices in the main western markets (Herat and Farah) reflect import prices, plus transport cost to places like Qalinow and Obey. But prices for wheat grain are levelling off in anticipation of a good harvest from the end of May.

For the West region as a whole, the mission has forecast an increase in area sown to wheat (mainly rainfed) and higher yields than last year, especially for the rainfed crop. This generally favourable outlook should not overshadow the localized severe effects of flooding and storm damage in this year affected areas (SW Farah, Northern Herat and Western Badghis).

East-Central Region

The Mission paid particular attention to Bamyan. This province has been under blockades from the north and south for more than one year, leading to severe distortions to the local economy. This deficit area is dependent on imported cereals sold in exchange for livestock, potatoes and handcrafts. Very little of this trade has been possible, resulting in food scarcity, high cereal prices out of reach of most people, and surplus potatoes and livestock. Farmers who could not sell potatoes and cattle were reported to be exchanging at prices less than half of their normal value. Compared to flour, prices of livestock have fallen much more. As most families have only very few livestock, this is a ruinous situation, which is worst in the southern districts of Panjau and Waras. In these districts, heavy flooding occurred in May which damaged an estimated 500 hectares of crops in Panjau, together with a large number of irrigation inlets and other structures. This is a major disaster for the landowners and sharecroppers concerned. In addition, the current crop will suffer from an estimated 60 percent fall in fertilizer use as farmers were unable to purchase normal amounts due to lack of cash and very high fertilizer prices for smuggled supplies. Prospects for 1998/99 are therefore unfavourable for Bamyan generally and, in addition, some high valleys have suffered flooding and landslides this spring.

In the East-Central region as a whole, the better than average rains have assisted the dryland wheat crop and yields are expected to be up from 0.5 tons/hectare in 1997 to 0.7 tons/hectare this year. Irrigated wheat yields are also expected to be improved due to the heavy snowfall which protected crops from the extreme cold and provided moisture for growth in the spring.

Central Region

On the positive side, the use of improved varieties has again expanded, with 100 tonnes of improved wheat seed being distributed in Kabul and 50 tonnes of wheat seed distributed in both Wardak and Logar, respectively. Fertilizer consumption seems to have held up despite the increase in prices. The price ratio of fertilizer to wheat grain is currently favourable (one kg of wheat is 33% more expensive than that of urea) and farmers have continued to apply fertilizers this year as long as cash was available to purchase these inputs. Wheat crops appeared vigorous, except where affected by rust, and farmers were generally optimistic. However, the mission expects wheat yields to be down from last year’s levels mainly because of rust, weed competition and storm damage. With areas unchanged from last year, wheat production is forecast to fall by 15 percent to 135 000 tonnes for the region as a whole. Most of this production is consumed on the farm and in the rural areas, leaving Kabul almost solely dependent on flour and rice imports from Pakistan through Torkham, for which markets remain firm.

East Region

Prospects for summer crops of maize, mung beans and cotton in all three provinces of East Region are favourable, with good water availability from higher than average snow accumulations in the mountains above the fields and high water levels in the Laghman and Kunar rivers and in other local streams.

South Region

The winter of 1997/98 was reported to be one of the harshest for 40 years in this region. In Ghazni, 187 cm of snow fell and temperatures dropped to -22 degrees Celsius in January, with lowest temperatures in February and March of -19 degrees and -13 degrees Celsius, respectively. These low temperatures decimated some winter wheat crops and the continued cold conditions postponed the planting of spring wheat for about two weeks until the first week of April. Rainfall in Ghazni was well up to average at 180 mm for the period from October to 20 May. Significant hail damage to irrigated wheat crops was reported to have occurred in Khost District, but the Mission did not visit this area. Most of South Region produces only a single crop each year, due to the short growing season. Overall, wheat production is expected to be at the same level as last year.

Southwest Region

Production of irrigated wheat is forecast at 459 000 tonnes, a slight increase from last year’s production of 457 000 tonnes. Yields are expected to be reduced by about 5 percent to 1.7 tonnes/hectare. Rainfed wheat production is expected to increase by 12.5 percent to 81 000 tonnes, due to an increase in yield to 0.9 tonnes/hectare.

Farmers are becoming increasingly aware of the advantages, in terms of yield and quality, of planting improved varieties. However, due to the temporary withdrawal of the UN system from the southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand and Nimroz, crops of seed wheat, which are normally monitored on a regular basis by national FAO staff, cannot be monitored properly and the new crops cannot be declared officially as "Quality Declared Seed" for the 1998/99 season. Seed producing farmers are also deprived of the higher prices obtainable from the very successful FAO/WFP/UNDP "Food For Seed" Scheme, whereby each unit of seed wheat is exchanged for 1.25 units of food wheat. This situation will soon be resolved and it is hoped that up to 1 500 tonnes of seed may be retrieved for sale to farmers in the coming season. Poppy cultivation continued to increase, supplanting wheat on some irrigated land.

5.1 Cereal supply/demand balance

Cereals for animal feed are at low levels in Afghanistan comprising most of the barley and more than half of maize production (both are minor cereals). Livestock numbers are still recovering and the amount of feedgrain utilized is still below levels of the 1970s. Seed requirements have been estimated from the areas planted, using the high seed rates commonly practised by farmers in Afghanistan. Post harvest grain losses are assumed at 10 percent for wheat, maize and barley, and 7 percent for the more valuable rice.
 

A tentative estimate of 170 000 tonnes of cereal exports has been built into the demand on domestic supplies. This represents the Mission’s preliminary estimate of exports from the north and north east, resulting from surplus production which has no access to the heavily populated centre and east of the country. It assumes the existing military situation remains unchanged with front lines blocking north/south trade. The grain exported from northern provinces is likely to be sold relatively cheaply in grain deficit areas of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Allowing for some build-up of stocks, the total import requirement, including food aid, is 740 000 tonnes, some 16 percent of total utilization and 4 percent higher than last year.

Imports from Pakistan by private traders are currently coming in normally for wheat flour, rice and wheat, despite an export ban by Pakistan. Imports originating from the Islamic Republic of Iran are also considerable, while some CIS wheat also occasionally reaches Herat on an irregular basis. In total, private sector cereal imports average some 500 000-600 000 tonnes annually. Hence, unless trading arrangements change, the private sector appears to have the capacity to import commercially 600 000 tonnes.

5.2 Emergency Food Aid Requirements

The largest part of the wheat consumed in the cities of Afghanistan is imported through commercial channels. An important part of the city population though, remains dependent on food aid to supplement their rations. This applies in particular to such groups as female headed households and internally displaced people among the vulnerable people, who do not have a sufficient income to pay for the wheat/bread at the high market price. During the past year, WFP has had large scale bakery projects in the major cities of Afghanistan mostly during the winter months, emergency distributions to returnees, IDPs, victims of natural disaster as well as institution feedings to be necessary in the coming year.

The overall requirements for food aid have been estimated at 140 000 tonnes for 1998. Over 105 000 tonnes of this quantity is to be provided by the WFP, with the balance to be derived by other means. An estimated 69 000 tonnes of the food aid supplied by WFP will be used for relief purposes, while 36 000 tonnes will go to rehabilitation projects:
 
 

*Including 1 304 tonnes of mixed food commodities.

Two special areas of concern exist for WFP in 1998: the Hazarajat and Badakhshan. The Hazarajat has been adversely affected by a combination of factors, including a Taliban blockade from the south and rampant insecurity/inaccessibility on the north. Due to the blockade, with the exception of some smuggling, no goods enter the region, nor do goods leave the region to traditional markets in the cities of Ghazni and Kabul. The two major mountain routes from the Northern city of Mazar-i-sharif to the Central Highlands are effectively also cut, as a result of continuing conflict there. This blockade, in combination with yield losses in 1997, brought about by early snow during the harvesting season, resulted in an acute food shortage in this chronically food deficit region. WFP’s estimates of the population at risk of starvation are set at around 167 000 requiring about 7 500 tonnes of food to support the most needy.

The traditionally food deficient northeastern province of Badakhshan used to obtain its cereals from the neighbouring provinces of Kunduz and Takhar. In mid-1997, Kunduz was captured by the Taliban movement. Reports suggest that limited quantities of wheat and rice are still entering Badakhshan from Kunduz and Takhar, but this supply route is highly insecure during summer and blocked during the long winter period. This not only endangers the food supply for the inhabitants of Badakhshan, but also makes it impossible for the Badakhshan men to pursue their usual seasonal migration to these two provinces. Here they assist in the harvesting, which allows them to earn the necessary income to pay for the additional food for their families.

In general WFP food aid beneficiaries (over 1.1 million) consist of the most vulnerable people in rural and urban areas in Afghanistan. WFP’s relief operations are targeting:
 

- Female headed households with no source of income
- Orphans
- IDPs
- Sick and elderly/institution feeding
- Victims of natural disaster

On the other hand, rehabilitation activities are mainly implemented through:

- Food for seeds
- Food for work
- Repatriation and settlement of returning refugees
- Vocational training and income generation

Food Aid Logistics

Since Afghanistan is a landlocked country immersed in civil strife, delivery of food aid is a complex challenge. For one thing, the span of time from a pledge to the actual delivery of food aid into Afghanistan can stretch over many months. Moreover, due to the combined ravages of war, underdevelopment, terrain, and climate, poor infrastructure, and inaccessibility by overland routes from the south or high cost of transport to areas in the north - such as Mazar-e-Sharif and Badakhshan. In addition, the distances between ports and destinations are vast. Moreover, parts of north and north-central Afghanistan are just not accessible by road from outside in winter, including Badakhshan and Bamyan. Finally, intermittent insecurity and blockades can also interrupt supply lines, as has been the case in the Hazarajat for one full year (1997-1998).

WFP delivers food aid to Afghanistan through both southern and northern routes. Two-thirds of the food aid comes through the southern route via Port Qasim in Karachi, Pakistan; it is then transported overland to Peshawar or Quetta. This southern route then supplies the Jalalabad (East), Kabul (Central), Kandahar (Southwest), and sometimes Herat (West) regions using both UN and commercial convoys. (see Table 3 on Food Aid Logistics below)
 

On the northern route, vessels dock at the Baltic ports of Riga, Tallin and Ventspils, from where some of the food is transported by rail over 4 500 kilometres through the former USSR to three locations. Part goes to Kushka in Turkmenistan, and is then forwarded to Torgundi in the Herat (West plus Ghor province) region. Another part of the northern pipeline goes to Termez in Uzbekistan when it is forwarded across the border to Hairatan for use in northern Afghanistan including Mazar-i-Sharif, Jawzjan (North and part of Northeast region), Bamyan (East-Central), etc. Finally, the third segment of the northern pipeline transits Osh, Kyrgystan to supply Faizabad in remote Badakhshan province (part of Northeast region).