Urea prices recovered somewhat in February, reversing the
downward trend since October 1998. Nevertheless, prices remain below those a
year earlier, particularly in eastern Europe where February levels were 20 percent
down compared to the same period in 1998. Prices could continue to strengthen
through March as seasonal demand evolves. Future price developments will continue
to remain sensitive to changes in supply capacity from producers in the CIS.
Although producers in the Ukraine have fully restored production capacity, both
the Ukraine and the Russian Federation have domestic delivery programmes that
limit their export availabilities. Black Sea producers have been selling to
Mediterranean and Latin American destinations. In Asia, Indonesian producers
have already committed about 50 percent of their export allocation. Viet Nam
has recently entered the market with the rice-planting season approaching in
the south of the country. Availability in the Near East is limited due to temporary
maintenance of production plants. Exports from the Near East normally supply
Latin America, Viet Nam and Thailand. In the United States, the domestic market
is stable. Mexico's urea and ammonium nitrate plants have increased production
to meet export commitments as well as satisfy the domestic market. Importers
in India await government decisions on import allocations and tender conditions,
however, purchases of 400 000 to 500 000 tonnes are expected.
Ammonia prices from most origins have risen in response to limited supplies,
which coincides with increased demand expected from Morocco, the Netherlands
and France to meet spring planting requirements. Also India is tendering for
a considerable amount. Although between 14 to 60 percent lower than a year ago,
prices for ammonium sulphate remained stable or increased slightly in
February. Ammonium sulphate import demand from India is 50 000 tonnes and
16 000 tonnes from Viet Nam. In the Republic of Korea, the availability
for export is tight due to the high domestic demand.
Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices remained stable over the past weeks, apart from those in the US Gulf which fell marginally. Prices are similar to those during the same period last year. Recent strong demand for DAP in Australia has helped to support prices while some strengthening may be witnessed in the coming weeks when China and Pakistan enter the market. India's imports have been postponed due to uncertainties regarding a recently imposed import duty on fertilizers and fertilizer raw materials. In the United States, domestic demand is slow but is likely to pick-up as the planting season approaches. Exports from CIS countries are scheduled for Europe, Brazil and Uruguay and increasingly also for the South East Asian market due to lower freight rates. Ethiopia is expected to import about 75 000 tonnes from Lithuania, Morocco and Jordan.
Prices of triple superphosphate (TSP) from North Africa remained stable in early 1998, while those for suppliers from the US Gulf fell slightly. For both these origins prices are about 3 to 4 percent below those a year ago.
Average spot prices of muriate of potash (MOP) remained unchanged in February. Prices were about 12 percent up from a year ago in eastern Europe, and slightly up in Vancouver. Iran has arranged imports of 140 000 tonnes from Jordan and CIS producers. Demand for MOP in Europe is forecast to increase in March/April. In China, production of potassium fertilizers was 48 percent higher in 1998 than in 1997. Contract sales into China and strong sales into southeast Asia have added to upward pressure on prices. Importers in Japan have reached an agreement on supply arrangements with Canadian exporters. The Philippines has imported 20 000 tonnes MOP from CIS producers. In the United States, the price of imported potash has increased, however, domestic demand has been weak due to unfavourable weather. Demand for potash in Brazil, Bangladesh, Colombia, Ecuador and Honduras may support present levels of potash prices.
|
1999
|
1998
|
Change from
|
||
|
January
|
February
|
February
|
last year 1/
|
|
|
( . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . )
|
( percentage )
|
|||
|
Urea
|
||||
|
eastern Europe
|
63-65
|
66-68
|
78-89
|
- 20.0
|
|
Near East
|
79-82
|
84-87
|
82-94
|
- 2.2
|
|
Ammonium Sulphate
|
||||
|
eastern Europe
|
31-34
|
31-35
|
13-29
|
+ 58.3
|
|
U.S. Gulf
|
45-55
|
45-55
|
85-90
|
- 42.9
|
|
western Europe
|
41-46
|
48-52
|
33-36
|
+ 43.5
|
|
Far East
|
50-51
|
50-51
|
42-47
|
+ 13.5
|
|
Diammonium Phosphate
|
||||
|
Jordan
|
205-209
|
205-209
|
211-217
|
- 3.4
|
|
North Africa
|
201-207
|
200-206
|
210-216
|
- 4.8
|
|
U.S. Gulf
|
201-203
|
199-201
|
191-194
|
+ 3.8
|
|
Triple Superphosphate
|
||||
|
North Africa
|
158-162
|
155-162
|
162-165
|
- 3.2
|
|
U.S. Gulf
|
163-170
|
162-167
|
170-174
|
- 4.3
|
|
Muriate of Potash
|
||||
|
eastern Europe
|
95-108
|
95-108
|
86-94
|
+ 12.4
|
|
Vancouver
|
115-129
|
115-129
|
114-126
|
+ 1.3
|
|
western Europe
|
129-137
|
129-137
|
128-138
|
-
|
