SPECIAL REPORT

CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION IN SUDAN

14 June 2000

1. OVERVIEW

2. WHEAT PRODUCTION IN 1999/2000

3. REVIEW OF THE 1999/2000 CEREAL PRODUCTION

4. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

• 4.1 Current market situation
• 4.2 Cereal supply/demand balance for 1999/2000

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/GIEWS Crop Assessment Mission visited Sudan from 19 to 30 May to estimate the outcome of the 2000 wheat harvest, review estimates of the main coarse grain crop and update the cereal supply/demand balance for 1999/2000. An earlier FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited southern Sudan in October/November and northern Sudan in November/December 1999 had provided preliminary estimates of cereal supply/demand outlook in Sudan for the current marketing year. The present mission visited all major wheat producing areas in the country, including Gezira, New Halfa, Northern and River Nile states, as well as the major coarse grains producing and marketing areas, including Gedaref and North Kordofan.

In 1999/2000, despite near optimal weather conditions, area planted to wheat declined drastically due to the liberalisation of wheat production and the removal of Government support programmes to encourage wheat production in the Gezira, Rahad and New Halfa irrigation schemes. In 1999, Government directives for farmers to commit a proportion of their land under wheat cultivation were removed. This, together with the abolishing of the repayment arrangements for seeds and fertilizer, prompted many farmers to either drastically reduce wheat cultivation and switch to more lucrative cash crops, such as vegetables and oil seeds, or leave land fallow. As a result, area planted under wheat declined further from the reduced 355 000 feddans (149 000 ha) in the 1998/99 season to merely 243 000 feddans (102 000 ha) this year - representing a decrease of some 32 percent. However, a combination of favourable weather conditions during the growing season and relatively low incidence of pest attacks have resulted in a substantial increase in yields. Consequently, wheat production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 214 000 tonnes, some 20 percent above last year's poor crop but about 60 percent below the previous five years average of about 532 000 tonnes.

The final estimate of sorghum production for 1999/2000 has been revised down to around 2.35 million tonnes compared to 3.11 million tonnes estimated by the FAO/WFP mission late last year, mainly due to lower yields and pest damage, especially sorghum midge, rats, grasshoppers and birds. At this level, the sorghum crop is some 45 percent below the previous year's bumper harvest and about 24 percent below the average for the previous five years. Final estimates of the millet production remain unchanged from the preliminary estimates of the FAO/WFP mission at 499 000 tonnes. The aggregate production of cereals in 1999/2000 is, therefore, estimated at 3.14 million tonnes, including small quantities of maize and rice. This represents a drop over last year and the previous five years of some 39 percent and 24 percent respectively.

Reflecting lower cereal harvests in 1999/2000 and the drawing down of stocks due mainly to a surge in exports during 1999, cereal prices have risen sharply since November 1999.

With an estimated cereal production of about 3.14 million tonnes, commercial cereal imports forecast at 912 000 tonnes and food assistance of about 104 000 tonnes, the country's cereal utilization requirement estimated at about 4.7 million tonnes in 1999/2000 would require heavy drawdown of stocks. It is estimated that cereal stocks will need to be drawn down by 538 000 tonnes, resulting in their virtual depletion by the end of the current marketing year.

The food supply situation remains highly precarious in southern Sudan, mainly due to insecurity, and in some pockets in the states of Kordofan, Darfur, and Red Sea and Kessela in the north where crop losses and population displacements have affected large number of people. The conflict between the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and Eritrea has also resulted in tens of thousands of refugees crossing the border into Sudan adversely affecting the food supply situation in these bordering areas. The Government of Sudan has already appealed to the international community for relief and emergency assistance to the refugees.

Early prospects for the 2000/01 coarse grains, planting of which is about to start, are promising. Current high cereal prices in the country and growing export opportunities to neighbouring Eritrea and Ethiopia have prompted farmers for early preparation of land and likely increase in area sown which were also helped by early start of rains in some parts. The Government has also embarked on a strategy of early delivery of necessary agricultural inputs, including seeds, fertilisers, fuel and pesticides.

2. WHEAT PRODUCTION IN 1999/2000

Wheat production, which is almost entirely irrigated, has been declining over the past few years due to diminishing yields and soaring input costs. Since last year the Government liberalised the wheat production regime and removed all support programmes, in particular the repayment of costs seeds and fertilizer, that were designed to encourage wheat production in the Gezira, Rahad and New Halfa irrigation schemes. These moves have prompted many farmers to either drastically reduce wheat cultivation or switch to more lucrative cash crops, such as vegetables and oil seeds. As a result, in the current season, area planted under wheat declined further from the already low 355 000 feddans (149 000 ha) in 1998/99 to merely 243 000 feddans (102 000 ha). Compared with the previous five years average (1993/94 - 1997/98), the area cultivated in 2000 was nearly 78 percent lower. In addition, the overall "area harvested" this season is about 11 percent below the area planted compared to an average of about 4 percent in previous years, due mainly to the relatively high cost of harvesting.

As most of the crop is irrigated, other important determinants of production are temperature and irrigation supplies. The optimum time for planting wheat is November. The relatively cool temperatures that prevailed during November and December 1999 in almost all wheat growing areas allowed for the completion of nearly 90 percent of the plantings on time. The availability and supply of fuel for pump irrigation allowed farmers to provide crops between five and eight irrigations. No significant outbreaks of pests and diseases were reported and the fertilizer availability was satisfactory throughout the country, though a slight shortage of super-phosphate in Gezira reduced its application, which did not appear to have a significant impact on yields.

A combination of the above favourable factors and better and more timely land preparation have, therefore, resulted in higher yields. Average yields estimated at around 2.35 tonnes/ha are almost double of last year's level and about 3 percent above 1998. Wheat production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 214 000 tonnes, some 20 percent above last year's reduced crop but about 60 percent below the previous five years average of about 532 000 tonnes. Estimates of 1996/97 wheat production by zone are given in Table 1.

Table 1 - Sudan: Estimated Wheat Production in 1999/2000

¹ All area, rounded to the nearest thousand

3. REVIEW OF THE 1999/2000 CEREAL PRODUCTION

Cereals are the main staple crops of Sudan with sorghum providing nearly 60 percent of the total cereal consumed. Only in the Southern States are other carbohydrate foodstuffs, particularly cassava and sweet potatoes, used in significant quantities. Sorghum, millet and maize are grown throughout the country during the rainy season from April to October. During the winter months from November to March, wheat is grown in irrigation schemes and small, but locally significant, areas of maize are grown under traditional hand-cultivation systems in riverine areas in the south from the residual moisture left by receding floods.

In 1999, the area under sorghum dropped by about 50 percent compared to last year as large scale mechanized farmers in the central-eastern clay plains and traditional farmers in all areas, except Kordofan, have reduced their planting due to poor financial returns in 1998. Such poor returns were particularly discouraging for the cultivation of land in the transition zone and in conflict areas in the east where cropped areas have fallen by some 70-90 percent. Elsewhere in the east there was a marked increase in sesame planting as farmers sought better returns following high prices of sesame in 1998.

The area under millet has also declined compared to the previous year as traditional farmers in North Kordofan and West Darfur, who were badly hit by millet head worm in 1998, suffered again in 1999.

Despite favourable rainfall patterns in most parts of the country in 1999, average yields of the main cereals are estimated to have fallen as large scale farmers cut costs by reducing the number of cultivation passes and weedings. Such decisions have increased weed competition and enhanced the already favourable microclimate for plant pests and diseases caused by quantities of straw and stover left in the fields following extensive planting in 1998. This residual material and the late heavy rains in 1998 coupled with the exceptionally good growth of vegetation in 1999, has encouraged infestations with headworm, seriously reducing yields of the harvestable millet crop in the west, and sorghum midge reducing yields of mid-season sown sorghum throughout the east.

Regarding summer irrigated cereals, of which sorghum is the most important, the 1999 season had been better. Water management on the schemes was improved as the rainfall, although as high as 1998, was more evenly distributed. Fertilizers were available on time at lower prices so their level of use, although lower than desirable, was sustained. Due to the enforcement of rotational cropping patterns and direct and indirect (cotton-based) spraying campaigns, the pest problems observed in the rainfed sector were not as severe in the formal irrigated sector. However, low sorghum prices in 1998 were reflected in the reduced area sown, which is 12 percent lower than 1998; larger areas of groundnuts and cotton were sown instead. Area reduction notwithstanding, the overall production from the formal irrigation sector is some 10 percent higher than the previous year, due to increased yield. In the informal irrigated sub-sector, less planting and lower yields in the demira (flood recession) areas due to lower floods has decreased production. However, improved water management has sustained production in the spate irrigation schemes in Gash and Tokar.

The final estimate of sorghum production for 1999/2000 has been revised down to 2.35 million tonnes compared to 3.04 million tonnes estimated by the FAO/WFP mission last year mainly due to lower yields and pest damage, especially sorghum midge, rats, grasshoppers and birds. At this level, the sorghum crop is some 45 percent below last year's bumper harvest and about 24 percent below the average for the previous five years.

Final estimates of the millet production are unchanged from the preliminary estimates of the FAO/WFP mission at 499 000 tonnes. The aggregate production of cereals in 1999/2000 is, therefore, estimated at 3.14 million tonnes, including small quantities of maize and rice. This represents a drop compared to last year and the previous five years average of some 39 percent and 24 percent respectively.

The revised estimate for total area, production and yield of cereals in 1999/2000, including maize, is shown in Table 2, whilst the comparison of output with previous years is shown in Table 3. Total cereal output estimated at 3.14 million tonnes, is about 20 percent lower than the estimate made by the FAO/WFP mission in December. The production of sorghum and wheat is some 23 percent and 26 percent lower than earlier projected.

Table 2 - Estimate of Total Cereal Production 1999/2000

¹ All area, rounded to the nearest thousand

² Includes some 2 000 tonnes of rice

Table 3 - Cereal area and production by sector, from 1993/94 - 1999/2000¹

¹ Includes small amounts of rice and maize.

²Harvested area, rounded to the nearest thousand.

4. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

4.1 Current market situation

In contrast to 1998 when cereal prices were high and fluctuating, 1999 has seen a remarkably stable and relatively lower price situation in most parts of the country. This was mainly due to the bumper sorghum and millet harvest in 1998 and subsequent high levels of stocks in 1999, due to generally favourable climatic conditions and a 3-year ban on sorghum exports. The Figure below indicates that the average monthly prices of sorghum in 1999 in Gedaref, the major sorghum producing area, were relatively smoother than in 1998, with an average spread of just under SP 15 000 per 90kg bag from May to September, and substantially lower than the previous year's. Exceptions were, however, found in the south, where prices are affected by supply shortages due to insecurity and market fragmentation and extremely low purchasing power.

Lower cereal harvests (sorghum and millet) in 1999 compared to the previous year and the depletion of stocks due mainly to a surge in exports led to a jump in prices in November and December 1999 which continued through 2000. Sorghum prices, for instance, increased from an average price of SP 14 000 per 90kg bag in October 1999 to more than SP 23 000 in November and December and SP 32 000 currently. At the present level, sorghum prices have more than doubled compared to the same period last year and are about 30 percent above the same period in 1998. Price of millet (the main staple in Kordofan) is around SP 46 000 per bag compared to 30 000 for the same period last year and 35 000 in 1998. Further price rises are anticipated in the coming months until the next harvest from November 2000. Such an increase in prices will have an adverse effect on the poorer segments of the population, but is expected to be an incentive for farmers to increase planting of cereal crops next season. Correspondingly, cattle trade is firm with livestock prices generally high and there were no reports of distress selling.

4.2 Cereal supply/demand balance for 1999/2000

In deriving the revised cereal supply and demand balance for 1999/2000, the same assumptions on opening stocks, seed and other uses were used as in the FAO/WFP Assessment Mission in November/December 1999. However, adjustments were made on food and feed uses as a result of the large drop in sorghum production. More recent information on the level of expected wheat imports was also accommodated. Table 4 shows the Mission's forecast national cereal balance for 1999/2000. Underlying assumptions are given below:

• Opening stocks of cereals at the beginning of the marketing year 1999/2000 are estimated at a high 572 000 tonnes, of which about 87 percent is sorghum, reflecting the good crop of 1998.
  
  
• The aggregate cereal production is estimated at about 3.14 million tonnes which together with carryover stocks of 572 000 tonnes gives a domestic availability of 3.71 million tonnes of cereals.
  
  
• The Mission took account of regional differences in diets, food production and availability, historical trends, as well as conditions created by the ongoing civil conflict. For northern states and garrison towns in the south, the per caput cereal consumption in the year 1999/2000 is estimated at 145 kg, comprising 82 kg of sorghum, 18 kg of millet, 41 kg of wheat, and 4 kg of other grains. This compares with an historical norm of 140 kg, but below the much higher levels of 1998/99, when lower prices due to a bumper harvest resulted in increased cereal consumption. With an estimated population of 26.3 million in northern states and garrison towns in the south, cereal consumption would amount to about 3.813 million tonnes. For the rural areas in southern Sudan, with higher intake of cassava and other root crops, per caput mixed cereal intake is estimated at 69 kg, including 12 kg of maize. On the basis of a population of about 5.67 million, cereal requirement in rural areas of southern Sudan amounts to about 391 000 tonnes.
  
  
• During 1998/99, the use of sorghum for animal feed rose with increased availability and relatively low prices. The sharp rise in livestock exports, mainly sheep, to Middle Eastern countries has also contributed to increased use of sorghum for fattening. The allowance for waste was increased last year reflecting the abundant sorghum supplies. However, in 1999/2000 the reduced sorghum crop and possible increase in prices later in the year are expected to result in less use for animal feed.



• Seed rates are estimated at 7.5kg/ha for sorghum, 5kg/ha for millet and 150kg/ha for wheat. A lower percentage of crop losses are calculated this year, due to the reduced area and production which decreased losses, particularly during harvesting.
  
  
• The Mission observed that, except for a limited amount of sorghum exports at the beginning of this year, cereal exports have virtually stopped. In 1999/2000, the drop in production and the increase in sorghum prices have reduced the competitiveness of Sudan's crop thus limiting exports.



• Imports of wheat have risen nearly fivefold from 1990 to 1999. This may reflect a change in consumer taste fostered by urbanisation and income increase in some segments of the society. Wheat consumption, estimated at 1.08 million tonnes in 1999/2000 is well above the anticipated domestic production of 214 000 tonnes. Thus, about 924 000 tonnes of wheat need to be imported to meet consumption requirements. Commercial wheat imports are estimated at nearly 875 000 tonnes. The remaining 50 000 tonnes are expected to be covered by food aid, some of which is already on the pipeline. Total food aid imports, mainly for the southern sector, are estimated at about 104 000 tonnes of cereals. Another relatively minor but growing cereal import is rice, which increased from a mere 5 600 tonnes in 1990 to about 35 000 tonnes in 1998/1999.

The revised national cereal balance for 1999/2000 is shown in Table 4.

Table 4 - Sudan: Cereal Balance Sheet for 1999/2000 (`000 tonnes)

Although the overall food outlook for 2000 is stable, in certain provinces and states the food supply situation remain highly precarious. This is especially so in southern Sudan, mainly due to insecurity, and in some pockets in the states of Kordofan, Darfur, and Red Sea and Kessela in the north where crop losses and population displacements have affected large numbers of people. Reflecting lower cereal harvests in 1999/2000 and the depletion of stocks due mainly to a surge in exports during 1999, cereal prices have risen sharply since November 1999, affecting the poorer sections of the population. The conflict between the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and Eritrea has also resulted in tens of thousands of refugees crossing the border into Sudan adversely affecting the food supply situation in these bordering areas. The Government of Sudan has already appealed to the international community for relief and emergency assistance to the refugees.

Early prospects for the 2000/01 coarse grains, planting of which is about to start, are promising. Current high cereal prices in the country and growing export opportunities to neighbouring Eritrea and Ethiopia have prompted farmers for early preparation of land and likely increase in area sown which were also helped by early start of rains in some parts. The Government has also embarked on a strategy of early delivery of necessary agricultural inputs, including seeds, fertilisers, fuel and pesticides. A Government body, headed by the Ministry of Finance, was formed recently to oversee the establishment of a Strategic Cereal Reserve, to boost the country's drive towards food security.