SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO AFGHANISTAN

16 August 2002

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2001/02
• 4. AGRICULTURAL SITUATION BY REGION
• 5. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE
• 6. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION, 2002/03
• 7. FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS FOR 2002/03
• 8. MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM MEASURES

MISSION HIGHLIGHTS

1. OVERVIEW

During the past three years, Afghanistan has suffered severe droughts which compounded the impact of more than two decades of conflict and exposed millions of people to extreme hardship. In addition, military and political upheavals that followed events of 11 September 2001, a devastating earthquake in northern parts of the country in late March and floods and Moroccan locust infestation during the 2002 cropping season, raised serious humanitarian concerns.

Against this background, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Afghanistan from 15 June to 13 July 2002, to estimate the 2002 cereal harvest and cereal import requirements, including food aid needs, for the 2002/03 (July/June) marketing year. The Mission's findings are based on discussions held with Government officials, UN agencies, multilateral and bilateral donors, local and international NGOs and field visits to 21 out of the 32 provinces of the country. To support the work of the Mission, FAO and WFP jointly carried out pre-Mission surveys in all provinces to collect detailed information on crop production, livestock situation and food consumption. The Mission also benefited from USAID and United States Geological Survey (USGS) expertise in food security and agro-meteorology, respectively. Available relevant reports and documents were reviewed and satellite based normalised difference vegetation indices (NDVI) and Snow Depletion Curves were analyzed and adjusted, where appropriate, following Mission field inspections, spot-check crop-cuts, transect based field scoring and household surveys.

The Mission found that, improved precipitation in the current cropping season in major producing areas have resulted in a significant recovery of cereal production compared to the previous three years, in both rainfed and irrigated sectors.¹ Exceptions were provinces in the south and south-west where drought conditions have persisted. The effect of the military operation in Afghanistan, following the events of 11 September 2001, on agricultural production was rather limited. Effective control of the Moroccan locust outbreak in northern parts of the country also limited its impact on crop yields.

Overall, the Mission forecasts the 2002 total cereal production in Afghanistan at about 3.59 million tonnes, comprising 2.69 million tonnes of wheat, 345 000 tonnes of barley, 298 000 tonnes of maize and 260 000 tonnes of rice (the latter two to be harvested from September). At this level, cereal production is about 82 percent above last year's drought affected crop but about 4 percent below the good crop of 1998. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2002/03 (July/June) marketing year is estimated at 1.38 million tonnes, about 38 percent below the previous two years' volume. Commercial imports are estimated at 911 000 tonnes, similar to the average level of the previous three years. Emergency food aid in pipeline and pledges amount to 219 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of about 249 000 tonnes.

With improved national cereal production, better movement of goods across the country and strong appreciation of the Afghani currency, sharp declines in cereal prices were observed in several main markets. Wheat retail prices, for instance, have averaged at about Afg 35 000 per seer (7 kg) through most of the country in June/July 2002 compared to an average of Afg75 000 per seer at the same time last year.² Such a decrease in prices is expected to have increased access to food for large segments of the population.

The previous three years of drought had a devastating effect on range vegetation, as well as on the availability of feed from grain and crop residues, especially in rainfed areas. The drastic fall in feed led to a widespread decimation of livestock. Recent estimates indicate that the total livestock population in Afghanistan may have declined by about 60 percent since 1998, particularly after the massive deaths and distress selling of animals during the summer and autumn of last year. Improved rains this year, however, are beginning to change the situation for the better. Replenished pasture and better availability of feed, with substantially reduced livestock population, resulted in healthier conditions for the remaining animals. Domestic sale of livestock is estimated to have dropped by some 50 percent while animal prices increased by at least 30 percent in all areas. Such a situation has caused a scarcity in the availability of meat, draught animals and breeding stock which prompted increased imports of large ruminants and poultry from neighbouring countries, particularly from Pakistan. These imports without the proper border controls and quarantine procedures may entail severe veterinary risks, especially given the weak veterinary services and lack of vaccination programmes. Imaginative flock reconstitution subsidies, whereby pastoralists and settled farmers are encouraged to retain breeding females, should be considered to facilitate rapid recovery of small ruminants.

The establishment of the new Government, lifting of UN sanctions and renewed commitment by the international community for the development and reconstruction of Afghanistan, have all resulted in a new sense of hope and relative stability in most parts of the country. As a consequence, in July 2002 over 1.4 million Afghan refugees were estimated to have returned, mostly from Pakistan and Iran. More than 200 000 IDPs were also back home with the help of international humanitarian agencies while a further 400 000 IDPs have returned on their own. A considerable number of these returnees has gone back to rural and agricultural areas.

Despite the recovery in this year's agricultural production and the renewed sense of hope, millions of Afghans, particularly pastoralist Kuchis, have little or no access to food due to serious erosion of their purchasing power and/or loss of productive assets. Effects of successive years of drought, deteriorating irrigation and other infrastructure, inability of farmers to access necessary agricultural inputs, lack of employment within and outside agriculture, and a vicious rural indebtedness among others, render a timely and effective intervention all the more essential. Sustained investment in the agricultural sector, particularly the rehabilitation, upgrading and maintenance of the irrigation infrastructure is also essential for a speedy recovery of the Afghan economy.

The resurgence of poppy production this year signals the need for a strategic approach of providing opportunities for alternative income sources for poppy farmers and workers, and/or for support measures by the authorities. Poppy growing this year is estimated to have reduced the area of irrigated wheat by some 10 percent.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT

2.1 General

Over two decades of war, civil strife, and a severe drought in the last three years have devastated Afghanistan. Afghanistan's physical infrastructure is severely eroded or destroyed due to continuous neglect and destruction. Public and private institutions are mostly in disarray with extremely limited resources at their disposal. The human capital is highly depleted due to mass exodus of people with technical and professional skills. The continuous disruption in the educational and technical institutions has meant that the younger generation was ill-prepared to assume full national responsibilities. With one of the highest child and maternal mortality rates; one of the lowest literacy and life expectancy rates; and one of the highest proportions of disabled people in the world Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world.

2.2 Macroeconomic review

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates the current per capita GDP in Afghanistan to be only about US$200, resulting in an aggregate GDP of US$4.6 billion. According to the latest available estimates, national production consists of agriculture and forestry products (53 percent), followed by mining and light industry (28 percent), trade (8 percent), and construction (6 percent). Transport, communications, and services account for the remaining 5 percent.

According to the ADB, the total export volume in 1999 was estimated at US$235 million and total import volume at US$900 million, showing a trade deficit of US$665 million or close to 10 percent of the GDP in that year. The national debt in the mid-nineties was estimated at US$5 billion. Presently, fruits and nuts, carpets, wool, sheep skin, and cotton are exported to Pakistan, India, Belgium, Germany, Russia, and United Arab Emirates. Capital goods, food commodities (including grains, sugar, and vegetable oil), textiles, petroleum products, and tires are imported from Pakistan, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Turkmenistan, and India.³

Public expenditure in the early 1990s was almost 13 percent of the GDP and the recorded revenues were about 3 percent excluding levies on opium and other narcotics. The fiscal deficit of 10 percent was covered largely through external assistance from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Since the late 1990s the budgetary system has broken down with public finance taking place off-budget. Now the IMF is providing technical assistance to restore the budgetary system and also to establish a credible macroeconomic framework that can restore the revenue system and enable the country to qualify for substantial external assistance.

The Afghan currency has appreciated more than 100 percent since last year both against the Pakistani Rupee and the US dollar. In June 2002, the Afghani was trading at Afs35 000 to US$1 and Afs600 to Pakistan Rs1 compared to Afs80 000 to US$1 and Afs 1200 to Rs1 in June 2001. Substantial appreciation in the Afghani was observed following the removal of the Taliban and it was apparent that the international community was committed to allocate financial, human, and technical resources for the intermediate and long term reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.

The international community has pledged US$4.5 billion to address the country's urgent reconstruction and development needs. The Preliminary Needs Assessment, jointly conducted by ADB, United Nations Development Programme and World Bank, estimates that reconstruction requirements will be US$1.7 billion in the first year (2002) and about US$5 billion in the first 2.5 years including 1.8 billion to cover the recurrent costs of the Interim Government. The 10-year figure for reconstruction is estimated at US$15 billion. It is likely that Afghanistan will experience rapid economic growth over the next few years provided that a transparent governance and financial system that has the capacity to deploy efficiently and effectively foreign assistance is set in place; there is security and stability; and external economic relations are restored to boost the productive capacity of the country.

2.3 Population estimates

Population estimates varied greatly and ranged between 20 million and 28 million. However, the Central Statistics Office of the Interim Government of Afghanistan in 2002 undertook a review and estimated the current population at 21.8 million people comprising of a settled population of 20.3 million and 1.5 million nomads. A further 800,000 refugees are expected to return before December 2002. Of this population, 85 percent have been traditionally involved directly in the agricultural sector

2.4 Agricultural sector

About 12 percent of the country's total land is arable, 3 percent is under forest cover, 46 percent is under permanent pastures, and the remaining 39 percent is mountainous. Agriculture has been the mainstay of the Afghan economy although decades of war and three years of drought have depressed agricultural activities and contributed to the degradation of the natural resource base.

Given highly variable rainfall and concomitant variations in production from the rainfed sector, the irrigated sector traditionally provided 85 percent of all crops. However, since 1978, the irrigable area has declined by some 50 - 60 percent turning a country that was approaching self-sufficiency in crop production into a major importer of food grains, fruit and vegetables.

Land holding size and type vary both between and within provinces, with average farm size ranging between 1-2 hectares. Absentee landlords are common following emigration of families or family members to neighbouring countries and share-cropping is seemingly expanding in most provinces, with sharing arrangements between the landowner and the cropper varying from 75:25 to 50:50 according to contributions made to farm inputs.

Wheat is the staple crop, accounting for about 70 percent of total cereal consumption in Afghanistan. Other grains include rice, maize, barley, and pulses. Potatoes, onions, and several fruit crops including melons, water melons, apricots, pomegranates and grapes are also produced both for domestic consumption and exports. Exports of dried fruits and nuts, mainly apricots and almonds, are still a significant source of foreign exchange but they are nowhere near the levels of the 2490s when Afghan dried fruits accounted for almost 60 percent of the world market share.

2.5 Resurgence of poppy production

Poppy cultivation, that was virtually halted last year, has resumed once again in most poppy growing areas of Afghanistan. It is estimated that the area under cultivation for poppy this year is very close to the record level of 90 000 hectares set in 1999. A pre-assessment survey conducted by the Office for United Nations Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) in February 2002 conservatively estimates that the area sown to poppy in the south-west (Helmand, Uruzgan, Kandahar) and south-east (Nangarhar, Kunar) regions could range between 41 000 to 60 000 hectares. These estimates are based on surveys of only 6 percent of the villages that were growing poppy in 2000 and they do not include other provinces such as Badakhshan, Balkh, Farah, Juzjan and Talkh that are also known to produce poppy in relatively significant quantities.

The Afghan Interim Administration banned opium production in January 2002 but by then most opium fields were already sown. The subsequent Poppy Eradication Program (PEP) largely failed to achieve its objectives. The success rate of the program was informally reported to be minimal. Based on an average national yield of 41 kg/ha, and assuming that the PEP has succeeded in destroying about 20 percent of the estimated 90 000 hectares cultivated this year, it is estimated that 2 952 tonnes of opium will be produced. Farm-gate price varies between US$ 350 and US$ 400 per kg. The prognosis is that a larger area will be cultivated next year as the returns and employment opportunities are high and the risks are seen to be low given the large numbers of farmers involved and the perceived improbability of prosecutions.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2001/02

The extraordinary events in Afghanistan following the terrorist attacks on September 11^th, which led to the ousting of the Taliban Government, were both short-lived and territorially limited.

The extensive bombing campaigns and artillery exchanges which continued into this spring were conducted in remote areas far from the zones of agriculture production. Consequently, the core farming communities reduced by the previous exodus of economic and political refugees and accustomed to working in extreme circumstances, appear to have been able to continue to farm as "usual" despite the surrounding mayhem.

3.1 Rainfall and irrigation

Afghanistan is an arid/semi-arid country whose agriculture production depends on the availability of water, either as direct rainfall or in the form of irrigation. The past three years have demonstrated rainfall patterns differing significantly from the long-term average (LTA). The last time when rains were well distributed and conformed to the normally expected quantities was 1998, when heavier than usual snowfalls were also experienced. Since then, precipitations have been substantially lower than normal. This year, following a late start in some areas, better rains than last year were noted throughout most provinces. However, due to the administrative disruption caused by war and change of government, rainfall data have been very difficult to access. The Institute of Meteorology, Kabul, is not functioning, weather stations have been looted and rainfall data are, apparently, not being collected at the military weather stations. Consequently, the Mission received only two sets of data; one from agricultural office in Herat province and another from the FAO regional office in Nangarhar province. Such data are included in Figure 1 which compares this year's performance with the LTA and the last two years' data, noting precipitation levels higher than the LTA at the two sites mentioned. Qualitative assessment of the rains elsewhere was provided through key informants.

Figure 1: Rainfall in Two Regions of Afghanistan, 2001/02 Crop Season

The results note more and better distributed rain in 2002 than in 2001 from all but two informant groups, who, referring to spate irrigation systems in Kunar province (East), reported a later start to the stream and river flows this year. "Better than usual" rains were only reported in the North region where observations ranged from best for the last five to twenty-five years, depending on location.

Snowfall, upon which most of the country's irrigated sector depends, was variable in 2001/02 and for most part was noted to be better than last year. A review of 13 river basins in the northern regions (7), the west (2), the central (2), the east (1) and the south (1), show that snow cover depletion was quicker and, therefore, less sustained than the LTA. Warmer temperatures in April increased melt and, therefore, irrigation water in six of the catchments benefited crops at the grain filling stage in the command areas concerned.

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) profiles reflecting biomass levels on a regular 10-day basis from the beginning of the growing season in March to the end of May, suggest better vegetation than last year in the north, north-east and west provinces, these being the provinces contributing most to national rainfed cereal production. In the remaining provinces, where irrigation predominates, similar conditions to last year pertained until late spring-early summer precluding significant rainfed cereal production. However, late spring rains appear to have boosted pasture production throughout the grazing areas in the provinces concerned.

3.2 Factors affecting area planted estimates

Wheat

Wheat, the main staple, is grown each year under irrigated and rainfed conditions, the contribution from the latter changing according to climatic conditions. This notwithstanding, significant areas of rainfed wheat are sown each year as farmers plant optimistically in winter and early spring, however even in the best years the irrigated sector provides 60 percent of the supply, rising to 95 percent when the rains fail

For the last two decades or so, there has been no systematic collection and analysis of agricultural statistics. Any records that were collected in the Soviet, post-Soviet and pre-Taliban eras were apparently destroyed as part of the "purification process" introduced by the last administration. These elements, plus the fact that the Ministry of Agriculture, from headquarters to district level, is completely bereft of resources, create a vacuum of information causing analysts to rely on any remaining archives; the Land Cover Atlas produced by FAO-UNDP in 1993; FAO/WFP Mission reports; short-term consultant Mission reports and the experience of local and expatriate agriculturalists familiar with the country and its practices. In this regard, the corporate memory of provincial agricultural specialist teams, still functioning against overwhelming odds, is a precious resource. In order to estimate area planted this year, the Mission referred to the usual sources and obtained informal estimates of last year's planted area from Ministry of Irrigation and Ministry of Agriculture assessors. Provincial Agriculture Offices were made the key entry point to the provinces at each available opportunity where in-depth discussions were held with local specialists regarding area planted. Use was also made of the returns from the FAO/WFP Crop Survey conducted just before the arrival of the Mission from which extrapolations to provincial level have been made with regard to areas of barley, rice, maize and pulses.

Regarding the irrigated sector, the demise of state-run schemes means that traditional systems now predominate. Of the 2.5 million hectares estimated to have been irrigated regularly in 1978, only some 44 percent are now thought to be productive. These include the central core of the valley oasis served by rivers, streams and springs; karez systems served by catchments that have withstood three successive poor rainfall years; and the head-middle command areas of traditional canal schemes serving the large agricultural plains. Omitted from the reckoning are the outer fringes and extensions down-stream of the valley-oasis systems; the middle-tail command areas of the canal systems, the aforementioned state schemes and areas where the karez systems are known to have failed last year and have not recovered. Given that availability of water is the controlling factor, the Mission estimates that the first season irrigated area is similar to last year. Area planted to winter wheat is estimated to have fallen by 8 percent due to re-emergence of poppy as a significant crop in Nangarhar, Badakhshan, Kandahar and Helmand.

Improved rainfall in the main rainfed cereal growing provinces this year encouraged a resurgence of interest in late winter-early spring planting. Such activities added to the normal level of winter wheat planting connected to the traditional rainfed farming communities. Mission observations in recognized rainfed cereal growing areas in the west and north, suggest some farmers have diverted from the traditional practice of only sowing 50 percent of their land and leaving the remainder fallow, and increased the cultivated area up to 60-70 percent. Reports from other areas in the north and west, inaccessible to the Mission, point to a similar response from the rainfed farming communities elsewhere. These responses connect to an increase in rainfed wheat area of some 11 percent over last year's estimates. However, the estimated area remains substantially below Mission estimates for 1998 (73 percent), 1999 (83 percent) and 2000 (83 percent) due to reduced rainfed farming in the southwest and central provinces.

The robust nature of the residual traditional schemes is further evinced by the fact that despite the shocks, multiple cropping is still prevalent. Cropping patterns noted include summer season water melons, maize and pulses following wheat in the western and central provinces. In addition to the above patterns, the Mission also noted significant areas of rice following wheat in the east, north and lower altitude north-east provinces, and summer vegetables following winter vegetables in peri-urban localities.

Other grains

Other crops of national importance include barley, maize, rice, pulses; limited areas of foxtail millet are grown in north-eastern and eastern provinces. Barley is grown as a winter/spring sown crop in both the irrigated and rainfed sectors. Maize is an irrigated crop, late spring sown following winter fallow and both maize and rice are grown as second season crops in ex-wheat fields where irrigation water is available. Except for barley for which a larger area is noted, area estimates for other grains are similar to last year, but lower than areas reported in 1998 and 1999.

Regarding barley, regional estimates have been extrapolated from FAO/WFP 2002 Crop Survey returns, indicating high levels of barley growing in the north, north-east and western provinces, similar to the informal MoA assessments of barley areas in 2001. The increased area also connects to Mission assessment of the supplementary feed requirements for livestock that are usually met by domestic production and is noted to be 236 000 hectares, some 15 percent more than the barley area estimated in 1998.

The importance of winter and summer cereals notwithstanding, the role of pulses both as a staple food in highland areas and as supplementary foods in lowland areas, is considerable. In the absence of historical or recent time-series data, the Mission has also derived estimates for area under pulses from the recent survey returns. Pulses in this regard, comprise mung beans, grown as second season crops throughout the country; field peas grown as cereal substitutes in the high altitude irrigated areas; grass peas and chick peas grown under both rainfed and poorly-irrigated conditions and a wide variety of beans grown in most irrigated gardens. The Mission estimates that 118 000 hectares of pulses have been planted this year. This area when added, in part, to 135 000 hectares for rice and 100 000 hectares for maize suggests that 30 percent of the irrigated area was double cropped to field crops. The 1993 land cover analysis would suggest that this is probably a low estimate but the Mission figure does not include vegetables, perennial crops such as alfalfa and orchards and areas of cotton and potatoes that will not be harvested until the autumn.

3.3 Factors affecting yield estimates

Seed supply

Secondary sources and successive Mission findings have identified that more than 90 percent of the farmers carryover seed from one year to the next from their own harvests as the simplest, safest and cheapest method of seed security. If such a policy fails, localized borrowing of seed stock, or purchase from the local market are the next preferred options. In most cases, the farmers identify the seeds they prefer and although they may not distinguish between seeds and grains for consumption, they select those samples that are suited to their situation and with which they are familiar. In the irrigated wheat sector, the Mission notes that these are almost exclusively seeds of varieties released in the last decade or so. They are known to the farmers by name or by origin and include, among others, Kauz, Pamir 94 and Roshan 96. Such seeds have become established and were noted to be used in all provinces visited. They are recognized as being responsive to fertilizer applications provided water is available. Wheat yields, measured by and reported to the Mission from 2.5-6.0 tonnes/hectare, are much higher than those previously reported for "local seeds". Such yields would appear to confirm the predominance of the use of such releases and their continuing effectiveness.

Given the provenance of seeds described above, there is clearly a lack of seed selection, cleaning and dressing. Consequently seed rates are much higher than recommended as farmers compensate for potential germination failure, attempt to smother their ever-increasing weed populations and follow traditional practices that suggest that if the conditions are right, the greater the sowing rate, the greater the returns. Seed rates for wheat noted by the Mission in the irrigated sector ranged from 125 kg/ha (recommended) to 280 kg/ha where water security is high and farmyard manure and chemical fertilizers are used.

In the rainfed sector different situations pertain. Non-shattering local landraces identified by colour are evident, as are new releases for rainfed areas such as the Lalmi varieties. The Mission also noted that seeds released for the irrigated sector are used in the rainfed sector in some instances. The former seed types connect to village communities in rainfed areas with long established traditions and practices. The less selective approach to seed choice was noted in groups of farmers enjoying rainfed land concessions from local authorities, which may well reflect seed availability rather than preference.

Seed rates for rainfed wheat matched recommended and previous reported levels of 70-120 kg/ha with an average application of 73 kg/ha. Yields measured by and reported to the Mission were similar and ranged from 0.5 to 1.4 tonnes/ha throughout the recognized rainfed areas visited in the north, north-eastern and western provinces.

Alternative seed supplies from agencies, responding to the emergency, were distributed in both the irrigated and rainfed sectors. The Mission noted a mixed reaction to the initiatives from both farmers and local agriculturalists. Impact assessments on the interventions have yet to be conducted.

Mission estimates for seed use next year (2002/03) for all the main cereal crops are given in Table 1. Variations from last year's estimates include higher overall sowing rates for wheat and barley but lower rates for rice as it is apparent from Mission field visits that most rice is transplanted. Consequently, seed requirements for wheat and barley are higher than last year and whilst appropriate seeds are likely to be available, access to such seeds may well be limited particularly for IDPs, indebted settled farmers and smallholders with no assets to sell and insufficient grain to conserve seed stocks. For such farmers, sharecropping appears to be the locally available solution and seems to be a survival route taken by a substantial proportion of the farmers encountered by Mission teams.

Table 1. Anticipated seed use (2002/03)

Fertilizer use

The use of chemical fertilizers in Afghanistan is estimated to be 170 000 -180 000 tonnes (IFDC, 2002) and includes some 52 000 tonnes of urea from the Mazar-e-Sharif fertilizer factory. The balance comprising both diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea, is imported from both Turkmenistan and Pakistan, the former having the reputation of being of dubious quality and of little nutrient value. As no fertilizer is used in the rainfed sector, this approximates to an average use of combined fertilizer products of around 130 kg/ha at current area estimates which is significantly below the nutrient requirement for irrigated wheat, rice, maize and potatoes but is close to the average use in Asia. This average figure does, however, mask a wide pattern of use noted by the Mission ranging from zero, in fields at the tail-end of the canals where water supply is uncertain, to 500 kg/ha of urea and DAP where water supply is guaranteed. As a rule of thumb, in water-secure areas, use of fertilizer on wheat is noted to be guided by seed rates, with seed rate equivalents of DAP being used at sowing time as a basal dressing and seed rate equivalents of urea being used as a top dressing in one or two applications later in the season.

In most cases, fertilizer is sold by the 50 kg bag. Prices recorded by the Mission cover a wide spectrum ranging from US$ 18.0 to US$ 8.5 a bag for DAP and from US$ 15.7 to US$ 7.9 a bag for urea. The variation was affected by region, with the lowest prices noted in the north. Time of purchase and source, with associated quality implications, also affected price. There is clearly a well-organized network of traders making fertilizer available on-time in all agricultural areas. However, as formal credit systems do not exist and informal credit arrangements may require an increased payment of up to 50 percent, access to fertilizer is not universal and is likely to have been more restricted this year as the purchasing power of marginal farmers declined with the sale of most disposable assets in 2000/01.

Farm power

The past three years have seen a progressive decline in area under cultivation in both the rainfed and irrigated sectors. While at the national level this is due to access to water either in the form of irrigation or direct rainfall, at the individual household level, access to farm power is likely to have reduced the capacity of the poorer families to make independent use of their own land. Poorer farmers have sold draught animals last year to buy food and tractor hire prices, at a fairly standard US$ 5-6 per hour (at current exchange rates) are regarded as expensive for those with no cash to pay. In such cases where water was available it is noted that share-cropping arrangements, leasing and even outright sale of land occurred. This suggests that area cultivated is sustained but the resulting production being redistributed to the disadvantage of the poorer households.

Cultivation methods this year have generally followed local traditions in terms of the power source. Many fields in the core of the valley-oasis are still dug by hand; animal traction using pairs of oxen and in some cases, donkeys, is practised in all provinces in both the rainfed and irrigated sector. Pairing up of oxen, by single oxen owners, is a common mechanism to overcome oxen shortages, as is borrowing or hiring from neighbours in return for labour services later in the year. The use of tractors is also very apparent in both the irrigated and rainfed sectors. This year fuel was readily available when needed, with prices ranging from US$ 0.22 to 0.31 per litre depending on location. Within this general picture, however, the Mission noted that for economic reasons (in water insecure irrigated areas) and for reasons associated with the timing of sowing, cultivation practices had often been reduced, in the most extreme cases, to a single pass that neither prepares a suitable seed bed or buries the weeds.

By contrast, meticulous land preparation involving ploughing, levelling and post-seed harrowing was also noted in the water secure components of the irrigation schemes and in the valley bottom fields in the rainfed sector.

Pests and diseases

With the exception of farmers in nine northern provinces, the main pests this year in the irrigated sector were weeds. With wage labour rates ranging from US$ 2 - 3.50 a day, larger scale farmers, with land beyond the capacity of the family to weed, are purchasing herbicides from the local markets and employing knapsack sprayer contractors to spray the fields. However, these remain the exceptions rather than the rule. More generally, weeding is either conducted regularly until weed competition to the crop is sufficiently reduced, or, if the weeds are considered to have a value of their own either as animal feed or fuel, they are harvested in their own right by the farmers themselves or by landless livestock owners in the community. Weeds of wheat are rye and wild oats. Plant parasites such as orobanche (dodder) affecting potatoes and alfalfa among other species are also considered to be of significance and are overcome by judicious crop rotation.

Outbreaks of Moroccan locust were major causes for concern during the spring and early summer in Saripol, Juzjan, Faryab, Badakhshan, Takhar, Buglan, Samangan, Balkh and Kunduz. Community action and the combined resources of FAO and the NGOs GOAL, FOCUS and ICRC, working with the MoA, successfully overcame locust attacks through mechanized control of hoppers and widespread spraying of adults.

This year the main fungal disease of wheat, rust, although in evidence, was not considered to be a serious hazard to production, for although the rainfall was generally better than last year, it was still not high enough to support widespread infestations. Similarly, although smut was reported to the Mission as present in both rainfed and irrigated crops, the level was said to be mild. Nevertheless, the near total absence of seed dressing suggests that the wheat crop is vulnerable to serious smut attack, when the technology exists to prevent such outbreaks.
The only other pest of significance this year was chickpea pod borer. Serious losses of chickpeas, at farm level, are noted in Herat and Badakhshan. However, it is hard to judge how widespread the attacks may have been. In the cases noted, no remedial action had been taken.

3.4 Cereal production 2002

The previous sections have outlined factors affecting the Mission estimates of area and yield for the wheat and barley crops. This year, the estimated irrigated wheat area is 10 percent below the low level estimated under cultivation in 2001, due to the resurgence of poppy production. The rainfed wheat area is estimated to have increased by 12 percent as farmers took advantage of the much better growing conditions in the western and northern provinces.

Higher wheat yield estimates this year in the irrigated sector connect to the universally higher yields reported in the FAO/WFP 2002 Crop Survey returns, the Mission's own spot-check crop cuts, Mission windshield scoring of fields and reports from FAO and provincial agricultural specialists living in the regions visited. Such increases still only result in an average yield of 2.0 tonnes/ha, which given the seed type and fertilizer use noted, may be conservative.

Higher yield estimates for rainfed wheat this year measured by and reported to the Mission at 0.5-1.4 tonnes/ha, connect directly to the much better rainfall in the west, north and north-eastern provinces. However, performance of rainfall crops in the central, south and south-western provinces is noted to be lower and reduces the overall average to 0.75 tonnes/ha. National area and production Mission estimates for the past five years for all major cereals are provided in Table 2 for comparison purposes.

Table 2. Afghanistan: Area (`000 ha) and Production (`000 tonnes) of cereals in 1998 - 2002

*Combined rainfed and irrigated

**Irrigated summer season crops .

As rice and maize harvests do not take place until September 2002, production figures are highly speculative having been calculated from theoretical yields for similar systems, multiplied by area estimates derived from informal MoA assessor predictions adjusted by the FAO/WFP Crop Survey returns. Maize area figures refer to maize grown for grain only.

Aggregate wheat production is estimated at 2.69 million tonnes, some 67 percent more than was achieved last year and due to improved wheat yields in both the rainfed and irrigated sectors. Wheat data, disaggregated by province are provided in Table 3. This table, prepared by the Mission for the first time, requires careful scrutiny. As more information becomes available during the coming year the table should be updated to form a realistic basis for next year's estimates.

Table 3. Irrigated and rainfed wheat production estimate for 2002 by province*

* Names of provinces are spelt differently in different publications. The spellings followed here are from the recent publication of the Central Statistical Office of the Interim Government of Afghanistan.

**Areas not available for Nooristan

A similar exercise of dis-aggregation by province was not possible for barley, maize and rice, but regional statistics were available and are presented in Table 4 for comparison.

Table 4. Estimates of area (`000 ha), production (`000 tonnes) and yield for other cereals by region

Paddy rice of 388 000 tonnes is equivalent to 266 000 tonnes in milled basis.

3.5 Other crops

Vegetables

Grown by most farm families for home consumption, an estimated 6 percent of the total irrigated area was noted last year to be planted with vegetables. Mission observations this year suggest that the area is higher in the peri-urban areas. Water melons, melons and okra were noted to be the most common summer vegetables. Specialist areas for onions and potatoes were noted in the central and eastern and north-eastern provinces respectively. Potato yields from 17 to 35 t/ha were reported from areas as diverse as Badakhshan and Wardak. In the latter case, the higher yields are achieved by farms augmenting the traditional irrigation schemes with water from nearby shallow wells.

Fruits

The core of the traditional valley-oasis structures contain a variety of fruit trees with apples, pomegranates, apricots, mulberries, grapes and almonds accounting for some 87 percent of the planting. The trees are regularly intercropped with cereal-pulse combinations or alfalfa. In both Kandahar and in Wardak (Nirk district) the Mission noted that orchards had died from lack of water in the past three years. In the same locations, small fruits this year signalled reduced yields and lower income for the market gardeners. By contrast, almonds and mulberries noted at other localities in the central and northern provinces appeared to be performing well.

Cotton

With the collapse of the cotton industry over the past 20 years, cotton planting has declined to the level of cottage industry support in three northern provinces and Nangarhar.

Poppy

The commercial cultivation of poppy resumed this year in the main poppy growing provinces of Nangarhar, Kandahar, Helmand and Badakhshan. Levels of production are noted to be back to those noted in the late 1990s at some 90 000 ha or above. As a very profitable irrigated winter crop, it is in direct competition with wheat and is the main reason for a reduced estimate of irrigated wheat area this year. During the visits the Mission noted that some 1-3 percent of the land of several villages in Wardak province in the central region, contained poppies, apparently for the first time.

4. AGRICULTURAL SITUATION BY REGION

In keeping with previous Mission reports, agricultural conditions are described below according to eight regional groupings of provinces: North (Faryab, Juzjan, Sar-i-pol, Balkh, Samangan); North-East (Bughlan, Kunduz, Takhar, Badakhshan); West (Herat, Farah, Badghis); West-Central (Ghor, Bamyan); Central (Kabul, Parwan, Kapisa, Logar, Ghazni, Wardak; South-East (Paktya, Paktika, Khost); East (Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman (plus Nooristan)); Southwest (Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul, Nimroz and Uruzgan).

The Mission visited 21 of the 32 provinces. Information regarding provinces not visited has been obtained from other sources including the FAO/WFP 2002 Crop Survey returns and agricultural reconnaissance surveys conducted by resident and visiting FAO specialists.

North

From an agro-ecological point of view, the North Region provinces present a comparatively homogeneous profile encompassing vast tracts of hilly cultivable land for rainfed cereal production and level plains suitable for large-scale irrigated field crop production. This year much better rains from November and December encouraged farmers to hold or increase their areas under rainfed wheat production in spite of last year's abysmal harvest. Fortunately, the rainfall was sustained throughout the spring, resulting in an estimated production of 180 000 tonnes, which although considerably higher than production in 2001 and 2000 is still 20 percent less than the good performance in 1998. The irrigated wheat sector is estimated to have returned to levels of production similar to those of 1998 at 449 000 tonnes, through enhanced yields from the head and middle command areas of the canal based irrigation schemes. Distinct differences in attitudes are noted between farmers in the water-secure irrigation command areas and those where water supply is intermittent and risky. In the former case high levels of inputs are noted, in the latter case, low-cost production tactics comprising minimal cultivation (one pass with bullocks or tractor), no fertilizer use and no weeding, are being applied in order to save money with a concomitant lowering of yield. In some of such areas, there were complaints against local commanders, who are apparently diverting water resources for their own land, even after NGO-sponsored action to clean the canal had been conducted by the community.

Problems in the region during the year included locusts that were effectively controlled by community action and FAO-NGO spraying programmes. The absence of credit and increasing labour prices are also noted as local causes for concern.

Crop prices collected in Balkh, Juzjan and Samangan indicated a substantial reduction from prices reported the year before. Most dramatically the price of one camel load of straw had fallen from US$ 14 to less than US$ 2 over the year. At the same time animal prices have doubled, reflecting changed selling patterns related to an abundance of pasture and the need to restock.

North-East

Continuing the extension of the northern plains to the mountainous province of Badakhsan, the North-East Region includes irrigated areas of high cropping intensity supporting two crops per year as well as substantial areas of rainfed production. This year better rains have boosted rainfed wheat production to 170 000 tonnes, a level similar to that achieved in 1998. The irrigation wheat sub-sector has also increased production over 1998 levels to 452 000 tonnes, due to the universal utilization of locally established improved varieties released in the past decade, control of the locust outbreak, no other major incidents of pests and diseases, and fertiliser availability. Although prices of fertilizers were noted to be higher than in the North Region, use of chemical fertilizers, particularly of urea is noted to be high, linked with good farming practices noted by the Mission. Such generalities mask a different story in the remote areas of Badakhshan where both improved seeds and fertilizers are noted to be in short supply. Notwithstanding the foregoing, even in Badakhshan crop prices were falling as communities were expecting a better harvest.

Although disastrous for the poppy eradication programme, poppy levels have risen again to 1999 levels at the expense of irrigated wheat production, with an associated boost to farm incomes.

West

The West Region comprises a rich mixture of agro-ecological zones encompassing intensely cultivated irrigated areas, rainfed based production, deserts-oasis and oasis-pasture land complexes. As usual, wheat is the predominant winter crop in both the irrigated and rainfed sectors. This year the Mission estimates that rainfed and irrigated wheat production is approximately equal to the harvest achieved in 1999 at 170 000 tonnes, and 358 000 tonnes respectively. In the irrigated sector, farmer carryover or locally purchased wheat seed stocks are noted to have been universally drawn from improved varieties released in the past ten years. Seed rates varying from 120kg/ha to as high as 240 kg/ha are supported with DAP and urea fertilizer applications at around 100 kg/ha for each type. As noted elsewhere, no fertiliser is used in the rainfed sector.

Apart from weeds, the only serious pest noted by the Mission was chickpea pod borer in Herat. Other problems noted connect to shortage of funds for inputs, an absence of credit, increased wage rates for farm work and some delays in gaining access to tractors in the spring, which caused farmers to reduce the number of cultivation passes from twice to once in the rainfed sector and from four to three times in the irrigated sector.

During field visits, Mission teams identified the importance of two alternative crops, white cumin grown under rainfed conditions as a cash crop, and "ing" an indigenous plant whose roots are tapped for an exudate which is exported to India. Both are of local significance with regard to income generation in the rainfed farming communities. Cereal prices exhibit the similar decreases observed throughout the country and animal prices are increasing monthly to levels 100 percent higher than last year

West-Central

The provinces of Ghor and Bamyan, high in the Hindu Kush, are made up of networks of high valleys and plateaux. Irrigated agriculture is conducted in the valley bottoms and rainfed agriculture on the plateaux. Planting is usually later than in other regions due to altitude related delay in the arrival of spring. This year wheat production is expected to be similar to production obtained in 1998 in both the irrigated and rainfed sectors at 87 000 t and 31 000 t respectively. This is expected to have occurred, despite possible disruption to early-season planting due to population movement as a result of post 11^th September events, through an extension of the regular sowing of wheat in April for September harvesting. No serious pest or disease outbreaks were noted on any of the major crops. Potatoes, an important crop in Bamyan are expected to yield around 24 t ha^-1 this year. As in other regions, crop prices are noted to be falling and livestock prices increasing as pastoralists and farmers are encouraged, by better pastures, to keep their stock.

Central

This region comprises six provinces surrounding Kabul city. As such the influence of Kabul market is noted in the specialist production of potatoes (Wardak), onions (Kabul) and general vegetables (Kabul). The foregoing notwithstanding, as elsewhere the principle winter crop is wheat. Summer crops of maize are also important for both fodder and grain planted in April on land fallowed in winter. This year, Mission estimates an irrigated wheat crop of 178 000 tonnes which is higher than previous estimates due to a revised appreciation of wheat yields in an area well supplied with fertilizers and improved varieties of seeds released in the last decade.

Rainfed wheat growing in the area is a highly opportunistic venture. In 1998 some 18 000 tonnes of rainfed wheat were estimated to have been produced but no real harvest has occurred since that time. Mission field visits suggest that although planting was conducted in Wardak and Kabul province this year, no significant grain production is expected.

This year no specific pest or disease problems were noted in the irrigated cereal crops, however, vegetable crops and fruit trees are being regularly sprayed in the orchards and gardens in valley-oasis irrigation areas to control a range of insect pests. The diverse nature of the region, depending on distinct water catchments, is epitomised by the difference between Jelriz and Nirk, both villages are located in Wardak and are barely 20 km apart. Jelriz has a vibrant agricultural economy this year with 100 percent double cropping, Nirk is still suffering from drought and the successful production units are mostly the ones being supported by water from deep wells and boreholes at a high cost to their owners.

South

The South Region provinces comprise forest-pasture areas, rainfed production-pasture areas, and low cropping intensity irrigation areas in about equal proportions, plus a limited area of irrigated high cropping intensity in east Khost. Early season rainfall was disappointing in the region this year. Although precipitation picked up in late spring and noticeably improved pasture in the rangelands, it is likely to have been too late to have influenced rainfed production, which is estimated at zero. Mission visits to the Region were limited and secondary sources suggest a poor agricultural performance this year. Consequently, conservative estimates of wheat area under irrigation have been used due to the level of uncertainty associated with the low-intensity irrigation schemes and reported non-return of many karez water supply systems. No significant pest and disease attacks were reported to the Mission for the region, therefore, as the areas that have been cropped, in the limited high intensity areas, have involved the use of the locally available improved seeds and fertilizers, yields are expected to be higher than last year's estimates resulting in a wheat production of 87 000 tonnes, similar to the estimates for the 2000 harvest. Stone-fruits and nuts for sale as well as timber production from conifers and oak forests offer livelihood alternatives in the region.

East

The East Region has the highest proportion of high cropping intensity irrigated land in the country. The riverine farms, situated along valley bottoms of varying widths, produce a range of crops throughout the year. Double cropping is the rule rather than the exception and triple cropping is noted in lowland areas offering 365 growing days per year. Wheat is the main autumn crop, although poppies are estimated to have been planted on 23 000 ha in Nangarhar alone this year, in a reversal of last year's decreasing trend. Rainfed cereal production is not practised in the Region.

Rainfall in Laghman and Nangarhar was not only thought to be .better than last year, but was also noted to be better than average precipitation in the last decade. Kunar appears to have been less fortunate with late starts to spate flows noted in districts visited by the Mission with an associated reduction of wheat production from such systems reported by the farmers.

For the riverine wheat crop throughout the region, seeding practices and fertilizer use conform to norms noted elsewhere. Local seed established from earlier releases is used at rates from 120 kg ha ^-1 to 250 kg ha^-1 and fertilizer use follows seed rates. No significant pests and diseases of field crops were noted. Aphids, cutworms and caterpillars were said to be regular pests for vegetable growers and a range of sprays are noted for sale in local markets and in Jalalabad. The use of herbicides for weed control is becoming established as a means of lowering production costs by reducing labour demand on all crops. Yields of wheat within the riverine systems ranged from 2 - 5 tonnes/ha resulting in an estimated harvest of 125 000 tonnes, which is lower than last year because of the poppy effect.

During the Mission visit transplanting of rice was noted to be well advanced and second crops of maize were being planted. Regarding maize production, unusually high sowing rates of 35 kg/ha are noted as high plant density plots are intentionally sown to be thinned progressively through the season to reach plant populations of 50 000-60 000 plants/ha. The thinnings are an important source of fodder for the draught animals.

In the areas visited in all three provinces, Laghman, Kunar and Nangarhar, cultivation practices are noted to be well-conducted as is in-field water management and canal maintenance.

South-West

Comprising deserts, steppe and high cropping intensity irrigated river systems, the south-west is the largest and most arid region in the country. Wheat sown in autumn is the main staple. Double cropping with maize, pulses and vegetables following wheat, is possible where water is available. Extensive irrigation schemes established thirty years ago are largely dysfunctional and agriculture is concentrated around the traditional riverine systems associated with a wide range of fruits and poppy production.

Three years of drought have severely challenged the vineyards and orchards. Stem borer of fruit trees has exacerbated the problem and is noted to be the major pest. Irrigated field cropping has been reduced to a stable core, based on the head-middle command areas of the canal systems. Private wells and boreholes have been drilled to support the perennial crops and higher value vegetable production.

Given the concentration on water-secure areas, the use of established varieties of wheat seeds and the availability of fertilizer, yields are estimated to be higher than last year's estimates in Helmand and Kandahar. A more variable performance is expected in the other provinces. Consequently, wheat production is estimated at 374 000 tonnes from the irrigated sector which is 9 percent less than last year from a much reduced area estimate. Greater stability in the coming year may allow accurate area estimates to be made, which, as elsewhere, are long overdue.

Given that the northern areas of the region, where rainfed production is possible, did not benefit from the rains as much as the northern and western provinces of the country, rainfed wheat production from Uruzgan and Nimroz is estimated at 24 000 tonnes, which is 60 percent of the production of 1999 and 29 percent of the production of 1998, but is higher than the last two years when virtually no crops were reported to have been harvested.

5. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE

The CFSA Mission in May 2001 estimated that the total livestock population in Afghanistan had declined by about 40 percent since 1998. A recent FAO survey (March 2002) suggests that this figure may well be in the order of 60 percent following continued distress selling of animals during the summer and autumn of last year. However, improved rains since this spring are changing the situation with a concomitant effect on animal condition and livestock selling patterns.

Table 5. Comparison of livestock population in selected villages before and after the drought

Source: Survey for feed distribution in the Northern Regions during 25 March to12 April 2002

The NDVI profiles for Afghanistan show that the vegetation cover in 2002 is almost similar to the pre-drought levels of 1998. Figures and satellite imagery indicate that the drought has eased tremendously with the exception of a few provinces in the southern part of the country. The satellite data is also supported by Mission field observations and verbal communication with pastoralists, farmers, livestock traders and butchers. All note that the pasture this year is better than last year with the exception of Kandahar and surrounding areas, where the pasture has not recovered but it is certainly not worse than in the last two years.

Consequently, the Mission notes that the condition of livestock both in the fields and markets is much better than last year. A ranking exercise conducted by the Mission, where animals in the poorest condition are ranked as 1 and best as 5, showed that livestock condition varied between 2 and 4 in all regions, last year the most common ranking was 1. The conclusions of the current ranking exercise are also supported by the Head of the International Dutch Committee and the NGOs running the various veterinary services in four provinces of the western Afghanistan. The number of livestock available for sale in the livestock markets has declined by more than 50 percent from last year. Livestock traders and butchers attribute this decline to more availability of pasture this year. Last year livestock in the market were emaciated and a mixture of young, old, female and male animals. This year the market has returned to normal with most of the livestock for sale being old stock for culling or surplus males. Most of the young females are being retained for breeding. Consequently, the price of livestock has increased by more than 30 percent from last year. Last year the price of a goat was 28 kg of wheat, while this year it is 140 kg. Furthermore, improved pasture conditions have reduced fodder costs, a camel load of wheat straw in Balkh province that cost Afg 1 million last year has dropped to Afs 60 000 this year. In other markets the price of barley, alfalfa, and other fodder crops has declined to 10 percent - 30 percent of the prices last year.

The scarcity of meat and livestock for butchering has lead to an influx of cattle, buffalo and poultry from Pakistan. Last year, during the Mission, sheep and goats were being exported through the border town of Spin Boldak, the main gateway between southern Afghanistan and Pakistan, while large quantities of fodder were moving into Afghanistan. This year the picture has changed drastically with cattle and buffalo moving from Pakistan into Afghanistan at an average rate of 150 animals per day and no apparent movement of fodder.

The steady importation of large ruminants for meat, draught animals and breeding stock from Pakistan, where rinderpest is an endemic, could pose serious problems in the future. The short-term advantages of livestock imports for consumption and restocking have to be carefully weighed against the long-term affects of a rinderpest outbreak in Afghanistan at a time when veterinary services are in not in good condition. Re-instituting effective quarantine procedures at border crossing points would help to alleviate the problem.

5.1 Animal diseases and veterinary services

The reduction of veterinary services and vaccination programmes combined with the effects of drought and civil strife have resulted in widespread reporting of animal disease outbreaks. The following are some of the diseases that are prevalent in Afghanistan:

• Peste des petits ruminants (PPR): The existence of PPR is confirmed in 18 provinces of Afghanistan by the FAO. The Mission was informed by various sources that the disease, which has a high mortality rate, might actually exist in every district of the country.
• Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD): This disease is endemic in Afghanistan and occurs as an annual epizootic. It has a direct effect on food security as it drastically reduces milk production in dairy cows, breeding bulls and oxen are incapacitated, and infertility rate in cows increase. Previously, Afghanistan had two types of FMD viruses but since March 2001 a new strain (Asia 1) has also been found. There has been no FMD vaccination for years and currently the vaccine is not available.
• Rinderpest: The last reported case of rinderpest in Afghanistan was in Khost in 1995. The unmonitored import of livestock from Pakistan where rinderpest is endemic poses a potential risk of reoccurrence of this disease.
• Sheep pox, Anthrax, Blackleg, Enterotoxaemia: All these disease are found throughout Afghanistan and individually they each impact on food security. Vaccination is necessary to reduce this risk.
• Newcastle: This disease seriously affects village poultry production and can cause heavy poultry losses.
• Gumbora: The first outbreak of this disease was reported in 1995. The veterinarians in the MOA blame the uncontrolled importation of live poultry for the introduction of the disease to the country. It seems that the local poultry breeds are resistant to Gumbora.
• Fowl pox, Spirochitosis, Pallurum and CRD have also been heavily reported this year.
• In addition to animal diseases, the Mission also notes the presence of the following zoonoses which give cause for concern:
• Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF): The virus causing CCHF is transmitted to humans by sheep and cattle ticks. The last confirmed cases of CCHF in Afghanistan were in 1999, whereas both Iran and Pakistan have reported confirmed CCHF cases this year.
• Brucellosis: Transmitted from cattle to human through milk consumption, brucellosis is thriving in Afghanistan because there are no facilities to detect it in either livestock or humans. Brucellosis causes abortion in livestock and a chronic disease (Malta fever) in humans.
• Rabies: More than 20 cases of human rabies in the provinces of Faryab, Parwan, Kabul, and Balkh were reported between January and July 2002. The number of livestock bitten by rabid dogs and the resultant fear in the rural community has not been assessed. Pamphlets on rabies are displayed alongside minefield warnings throughout the country, indicating the seriousness of the disease.
• Echinococcus granulosa: Hydatid disease is quite common in man and animals throughout the country.

Veterinary clinics are the highest development priority for the Kuchi (nomadic) population and remain high on the priority list for all settled farmers. FAO and UNDP established 255 veterinary field units in the mid nineties, however lack of funding, drought and wars have constrained the operational capacity of these units. A few of these units are being run by the MOA and some by the NGOs including the Dutch Committee, MCI, ADA, VARA, and PRB. Unfortunately, most units are dysfunctional and need rehabilitation and financial support to provide the services needed if animal diseases are to be brought under control.

5.2 Livestock production in 2002

The impact of three years of drought on livestock production cannot be overcome by one season's good rainfall. This year's calving and lambing rates ranged between 25-75 percent and 30-80 percent respectively, indicative of the effects of last year's drought on body condition and conception rates. Although individual animals are now in a far better condition, producing more than last year in terms of milk or live-weight gain, overall production remains low as herds and flocks have less numbers per se and fewer productive animals within groups.

Conception rates during the coming breeding seasons for cattle, sheep and goats are expected to be better than last year given the improved physical condition of the livestock and increased availability of pasture. However, the results will depend on the availability of sufficient males for mating that may not be the case in all settled communities. An enhanced artificial insemination service in these areas may be necessary to capitalise on the improved conditions. By the same token, incentives for farmers to retain as many breeding females as possible should be considered in order to expedite restocking of the sheep flocks and goat herds.

Increased production estimates of barley during this year, suggest that relatively more grains will be available for supplementary feeding of cows, horses and donkeys. The expected feed utilisation for each class of stock, including poultry, is presented in Table 6. It is expected that these requirements will be met by local production and the rations will vary according to the local availability of barley, maize, wheat bran, wheat, rice straw, alfalfa and clover.

Table 6. Livestock feed requirement 2002/03

* rounded figures

5.3 Draught animals

The main draught animal, oxen, are used both as the main farm power source for ploughing, hauling, and threshing as well as an auxiliary power source to tractors for tasks that are more suitable for animals due to the terrain, size of the fields, and the systems of planting. Numbers of draught animals have declined over the last three years and the price of one oxen has risen to at least 12 million Afs (US$340). The bullock sharing strategy, whereby single oxen owners join with other single oxen owners to plough each other's fields, is commonplace. Other methods of sharing noted include oxen borrowing, oxen hire for about US$10 per day, and bartering oxen use for wage labour. Such methods, which often mean that farmers must wait to cultivate, cause delayed sowing and lowered tillage standards as farmers reduce the amount of ploughing due to lack of time and money.

Given the apparent risks associated with the importing of livestock from neighbouring countries and the current shortage of oxen within the country, other alternatives to oxen ploughing may have to be considered. In this regard, the introduction of two-wheeled hand tractor may be appropriate and timely. Such hand tractors may be imported from the neighbouring countries at prices that are likely to be cheaper than a pair of oxen. Servicing and maintenance is unlikely to be a problem in an environment that is already mechanized and fuel is readily available at reasonable costs. The size and manoeuvrability of these units will also suit the average field sizes under most circumstances.

5.4 Current status of pastoralists

The largest concentrations of the Kuchi and semi-nomadic populations of Afghanistan are in the provinces of Ghazni, Zabul, Kabul and Kandahar. Some households of Beluch nomads also reside in the sandy deserts of the southern provinces of Helmand, Kandahar and Nimroz.

About 60 percent of the Kuchi households have completely lost their livestock and the remainder have suffered considerable losses. These losses may be as high as 90-95 percent for sheep and goats and 85 percent for camels. Few households currently have the means to sustain themselves without acquiring additional income through casual labour. When labour opportunities are limited, household expenditure are met by borrowing, resulting in high debt burden and hardly any assets to sustain such debts. Flock reconstitution will, for many, depend on outside assistance.

6. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION, 2002/03

6.1 Cereal markets and prices

Market prices of cereals have declined generally by an average of 100 percent to 500 percent since last year. Even adjusting for the appreciation of the Afghani, cereal prices in some provinces have declined by as much as 250 percent from last year.

Market prices of wheat and barley, in June/July, averaged at about Afs 35 000 per seer (7 kg) (US$0.14 per kg) through most of the country with the exception of Badakhshan province where these prices were about 20 percent higher. The current price of rice varies from Afs 50 000 per seer (US$0.20 per kg) to Afs 120 000 per seer (US$0.49 per kg) depending on the quality and location.

• Factors contributing to these lower prices include:
• Collapse of the frontlines between various fighting factions across the country has improved food availability, access, and transportation both within and between provinces as well as across borders.
• Over a 100 percent appreciation of the Afghani against the Pakistani Rupee and the US dollar has strengthened the purchasing power of the Afghan population and hence began to attract more imports.
• Better crop harvests (both food and cash crops) compared to the last three years have replenished overall supply.
• Food assistance programs, through food for work or free distribution.

Farmgate prices of cereals are noted to be depressed in some food surplus provinces such as Kunduz, Takhar, Bughlan, Balkh, and Helmand. Limited local purchases to meet local food aid needs may be an option in some surplus areas. However, the timing and amount of the grains purchased off such markets needs to be carefully examined so as not to inflate grain prices for the rest of the consumers.

6.2 Food availability and access

Traditionally, traders in Afghanistan do not keep large amounts of food stocks, but rely on revolving stocks whose quantities are determined on the basis of expected demand and the purchasing capacity of their clients. The Mission observed that there were no shortages of food and non-food commodities in the wholesale and retail markets at provincial, district, and village levels.

In addition to income from agricultural production, whether crop or livestock, wage-labour, petty trade, localised brick-making, mining and poppy-opium trading, remittances from abroad (Pakistan, Iran and the UAE), constitute a significant part of household income. Wage rates across the country range from Afs40 000 (US$1.15) to Afs 120 000 (US$3.40) per day depending on the location and type of work. In the rural areas labour demand is mostly seasonal, more regular work and higher wage rates are presently observed in the cities and areas close to the centres of the districts.

The debt burden in the rural areas is particularly worrisome, where levels of debt for individual farmers range from US$50 to $500. Such debts have been accumulated over the last few years linked to the purchase of agricultural inputs and food when crops failed. Purchases on credit usually cost as much as 40 percent higher than cash purchases. The farmers who purchase food commodities or agricultural inputs on credit are expected to clear their accounts at harvest, when traditionally the prices of agricultural commodities are at their lowest. Later in the year they have to repurchase at higher prices necessitating the sale of assets including diminishing numbers of livestock. This cycle may revolve until the families finally arrive at either share-cropping, leasing or selling their land to others.

6.3 Food consumption and nutrition

A rapid survey of household food consumption during the Mission's field visits identified slight variations in diet depending on regions and agro-ecological zones. Cereals, predominantly wheat and rice are the staple food with average per capita consumption of 474g per day and account for an average of 80 percent of daily energy intake. The energy content of the food basket in almost 56 percent of households surveyed was below the recommended requirements for populations in emergencies. The protein content varied widely, averaging 53g per day per person. Calcium and iron intake in all households was much below the recommended levels, but vitamin C consumption was adequate due to increased availability of home-grown fruits and vegetables.

FAO and WFP nutritional surveys conducted in 2001/02 estimate that stunting (low height-for-age) or chronic malnutrition rate is over 50 percent. Wasting or acute malnutrition (low weight for height) does not appear to be a major problem in most areas, however, micronutrient deficiencies are widespread mainly due to the lack of minerals and most vitamins in the diet. According to UNICEF over 50 percent of adult women and children under-two have anaemia and up to 50 percent of adults and children suffer from goitre. Cretinism and outbreaks of scurvy are also reported to be prevalent in the West and Northern regions.

6.4 Cereal supply/demand balance

The cereal balance sheet for 2002/03 (summarised in Table 7) is based on the following assumptions:

• Mid-year 2002/03 (December 2002) population is estimated at 22.8 million. This figure is based on the 2002/03 population estimate prepared by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on a decree by the Interim Government of Afghanistan. The figures reported by the CSO include 20.3 million settled and 1.5 million nomadic populations for a total of 21.8 million. This total was then projected six months forward using an annual growth rate of 1.92 percent-also used by the CSO. In addition, an estimated 800 000 refugees expected to return between July and December 2002 were also included in the total population figure.
• Per caput cereal consumption is estimated at 170 kg per year. This includes 152 kg wheat, 12 kg rice, 4 kg maize, and 2 kg barley.
• Cereal stocks are assumed to have no change during the current marketing year i.e. stocks at the beginning of the marketing year are assumed to be retained at the end of it. Commercial stocks are largely small and fast revolving.
• Feed use is estimated at 157 000 tonnes of maize and 240 000 tonnes of barley for cattle, horses, donkeys, and chicken.
• Seed use is estimated at 175 kg/ha for irrigated wheat, 73 kg/ha for rain-fed wheat, 30 kg/ha for rice, 35 kg/ha for maize, and 110 kg/ha for barley.
• Post harvest losses are assumed to be 10 percent for wheat and barley, 15 percent for maize and 7 percent for rice.

Table 7. Afghanistan: Cereal Balance Sheet, 2002/03 ('000 tonnes)

Note: paddy has been converted to rice at a conversion rate of 67 percent.

The total cereal import requirement in 2002/03 is estimated at 1.38 million tonnes, 37 percent lower than last year's estimated requirements. The decline in the import requirement is primarily explained by the significant increase in domestic cereal production that is estimated to have increased from 1.97 million tonnes last year to 3.59 million tonnes.

The commercial cereal import capacity is estimated 911 000 tonnes comprising of 865 000 tonnes of wheat and 46 0000 tonnes of rice. In view of the recent positive developments including the lifting of the UN sanctions against Afghanistan; over a 100 percent appreciation of the Afghani against the Pakistani Rupee and the US Dollar; and the relatively improved purchasing power of the Afghan population, it is likely that barring any major political or economic incident, these levels of cereal imports are well within the range of the Afghan traders. In addition, WFP has 75 000 tonnes in the pipeline and an additional 144 000 tonnes in outstanding deliveries for the 2002/03 marketing year. This leaves an uncovered deficit of 249 000 tonnes of wheat that will have to be met by additional external assistance.

7. FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS FOR 2002/03

Despite the reported increase in agricultural production during 2002 and the increased access to food through non farm incomes and lower food prices, a large number of people still remain highly food insecure. Years of conflict and drought have resulted in loss of assets and accumulation of debts, internal displacement or out-migration, huge loss of livestock, the destruction and/or deterioration of irrigation and other infrastructure, loss of family members and war-disabilities during the previous successive years of drought and conflict.

A quick recovery from these devastating losses and from overall impoverishment is made all the more difficult by the structural weaknesses of the Afghan rural socio-economic setting, which is characterized by: a low productivity of much of the agricultural land, tiny farm sizes and an archaic system of landholdings with a high proportion of sharecroppers or landless farm labourers. Therefore for the overwhelming majority of the rural population in Afghanistan food security - apart from home production - means adequate access to additional income possibilities outside the agricultural sector.

The extremely tight food security situation is reflected in the fact that the majority of the Afghan population has to spend about 90 percent of its entire farm and non-farm income for securing meagre daily meals, often only consisting of bread and tea. This does not allow adequate care of other essential daily needs, let alone does it permit a rebuilding of assets lost during the crisis. Development cannot take hold when the daily struggle for food exhausts all economic and human resources.

The predominant role of food aid during a recovery period - apart from improving the diet - will therefore be to assist the poorest of the rural population in rebuilding an asset base for their livelihood by spending less of the cash resources on basic food, which will allow them to repair the damages caused by the war, to restock their livestock and to repay the debts.

7.1 Targeting of food assistance

The allocation of food resources during the ongoing emergency operations followed closely the methodology and regional priorities set by the extensive Vulnerability and Mapping exercise (VAM) carried out by WFP during July-August 2001. A joint Food Security Unit now has been set up by WFP and FAO and a Food Aid Secretariat under the leadership of WFP is under discussion to assist the interim government in the planning and coordination of food aid programmes.

A Rapid Emergency Food Needs Assessment (REFNA) carried out in April/May 2002 assessed the impact of the past emergency food distribution and the still uncovered household food deficits. A new cycle of VAM assessments for the 2002/2003 agricultural year has now been initiated. It will, apart from assessing food availability and food deficits, also reflect more in detail the other income sources of poor households, which are essential for their food security. The targeting during the coming 2002/2003 season will follow the same approach: geographic targeting in line with the VAM results followed by a vulnerability targeting which is carried out by the community leadership according to guidelines set by WFP. Since the inherent pride in the Afghan society favours own efforts in complementing outside assistance and since free handouts always bear a larger risk of misuse, adapted Food-for- Works schemes and community self-help schemes should now become the principal targeting strategy. Particularly vulnerable groups like returnees internally displaced and destitute nomadic populations will have privileged access to these programmes.

During the last year's crisis, food aid agencies faced enormous challenges of not only meeting large food assistance requirements with minimum delays under tremendous logistical and security difficulties, but also had to re-build targeting and implementing structures essentially from scratch. Since the main objective was to save lives, cost-efficiency and targeting precision was of secondary importance.

Now most of the targeting structures are in place, large portions of the displaced populations have now returned and food assistance will shift its focus from survival to rehabilitation. The main objective for the food aid programmes in 2002/2003 will be to refine further the targeting mechanisms in order to not only cover assessed regional deficits, but also to transfer sufficient income as food allocations to the most needy households in such a way that will allow them to improve their longer term income possibilities.

As in the previous programme, the two main elements of the food assistance will remain: relief to drought and conflict affected rural population and special support to particularly vulnerable groups. The current approach for the assistance provided to returning refugees and internally displaced is part of a mechanism agreed with UNHCR, which has the lead role as programme secretariat for returning refugees and IDPs. The strategy involves a one time assistance package on return, including cash, food and non-food, followed by the implementation of FFW in return areas to facilitate re-integration and reduce pressure on local resources. The mission gained evidence that free food distribution as a single return package for returnees in areas near to the borders of Afghanistan or the distribution in camps for the displaced has not been sufficiently effective in targeting the most vulnerable and has led in some cases to a misuse of food aid. Therefore, a higher share of the programme resources should be directed to a longer-term assistance after return.

One particular challenge for targeting will remain the distinction between chronically vulnerable areas or population groups and the acute and only temporarily food insecure ones, since logically the effects of the past droughts and conflicts were most felt in the traditionally poor and food deficit regions of the country. A VAM-analysis could determine the regions where food security has returned to the pre crisis situation, where food aid interventions continue to be needed to assist in recovery or where other forms of assistance would be more adequate to address problems of structural deficits. Chronically food deficit areas, e.g. many parts of Badakhshan province, depend to a large extent on migration labour for their food security. Changing conditions in the labour market, both inside and outside Afghanistan, need to be monitored in order to assess household food security.

The most complex targeting issue will become the now proposed assistance to the nomadic Kuchi population, since food assistance by itself will never be sufficient to compensate for the immense loss of livestock suffered by these people. Food aid can only help in the transition to other forms of livelihood or at best avoid a further depletion of assets when essential breeding stock would have to be sold to cover urgent food needs.

Priorities for Geographic Targeting will be the following zones in Afghanistan:

• High altitude mountainous areas, in particular in Bamyian province, where a sedentary population has lost much of its livestock due to displacement or drought
• Population groups who have lost their agricultural income due to the destruction of irrigation systems and those who need transitional support until their destroyed perennial crops can bear fruits again (e.g. grape farmers in Kabul province, fruit growers in Kandahar province)
• Remote mountainous areas, e.g. in Badakhshan, Bamyian, Ghor, North-Uruzgan) where an improved road infrastructure through FFW-activities would effectively improve food security by creating better marketing opportunities
• Areas where through shorter term FFW-programmes (e.g. improvements of water supplies) a partially sedentary nomadic (Kuchi) population could be assisted in reconstituting their breeding stock of animals
• The particularly vulnerable Social Groups who should be given priority food assistance are:
• Internally displaced persons/former refugees at the outset and following their return to their places of origin or to new resettlement areas
• Populations displaced by the ongoing ethnic tensions in some areas of the country
• Families who have lost one or more essential wage earners during the conflict or who have to take care of a larger number of destitute relatives
• Kuchi whose main source of income still is derived from livestock and who would have to further reduce their essential breeding stock in order to avoid starvation

The targeting of social groups and of destitute persons has to be entrusted mainly to the community itself. In order to avoid social conflicts and to guarantee a minimal transfer value to the most needy, a certain "inclusion error" has to be taken into account for all programmes with community targeting.

7.2 Coping mechanisms

Coping mechanisms at macro as well as at individual level have significantly improved in 2002 compared to previous years in some, but not all regions of Afghanistan. International aid money, the effects of a large international presence on the local economy and significant investments for reconstruction by Afghanis who live abroad have contributed to a revival of the economy in some urban areas, in particular in Kabul but also in the provinces bordering Pakistan.

This development is reflected in increased wages (1.15 US$ on average in rural areas with relatively few work opportunities, but above 2. - US$/day in urban/peri-urban areas and in some southern provinces) as well as a real increase in purchasing power. Much better rains, also in the north and north-west, boosted agricultural activities and thus created employment for the many landless or marginal farmers who depend on additional income through employment in the richer irrigated production zones in the country. A better food production, more secure roads and the price stabilizing effect of food aid also in remote areas kept food prices relatively low or leveled local price differences and thus improved economic access to food for many poor.

However, coping mechanisms are still poor for the rural population living far away from trade routes and from rich agricultural districts. For those, the predominant coping mechanism will remain to become migration labourers within Afghanistan or to seek temporary employment in Pakistan/Iran. A continued access to trade and employment in these neighbouring countries will be of crucial importance for Afghanistan, not only as a labour market for the excess Afghan labour force but because they are also a relative low cost source for most of the imports of food and of other essential goods into Afghanistan.

7.3 Food distribution

During the 9 months period between October 2001 and June 2002 approximately 550 000 tonnes of food aid was distributed, out of which the share of WFP was about 90 percent. After the events of 11 September 2001 food aid shipments substantially increased. During the winter and spring of 2001/02 an average of about 60 000 tonnes per month was being distributed. Food assistance combined with enormous efforts undertaken by the special logistic teams in reaching the remotest areas avoided severe starvation and possibly death of thousands of people at risk of being cut off from food supplies.

With the immediate winter crisis successfully overcome - the programme quickly shifted the main focus of the food aid distribution to Food-For-Work (FFW). As common with humanitarian operations, a less rigorous type of FFW, called FoodAC (Food for Asset creation) was used in order to reach as many beneficiaries as possible with less rigorous work standards than the original FFW (which was continued in less drought/conflict affected areas).

WFP-food distribution has been carried out with the help of more than 60 NGOs as implementing partners (IP), out of which about half were national NGOs. All IP entered into cooperation agreements with WFP, in which each activity and the norms for beneficiary selection were stipulated. Allocations to the various regions followed the recommendations of the VAM analysis. Rapid Emergency Food Needs Assessments (REFNA) followed up on the original VAM-analysis and adjusted distributions in line with changing needs or alterations in the pipeline.

Although FFW-projects met their objectives much better in areas with a long-standing presence of implementing partners (e.g. in the North-East), the need to establish new structures in many new drought and conflict affected areas caused some problems. These mainly were:

· A "road based" and "administrative centers based" spread of the activities
· The need - in the absence of cash resources - to finance public works programmes outside the target areas, which shifted the focus from beneficiary needs to administration/community needs.
· Often low technical standards of work execution
· Inclusion of regular workers into FFW near some urban centres or highly productive agricultural zones with the consequence, that higher FFW-rations had to be allocated in some cases in order to match the value of local wages.

The near total absence of government cash resources prompted - at the request of UN-Afghanistan office and of some donors - a food-aid support programme targeted to government employees, although such type of food assistance is not normally within the framework of humanitarian assistance. These distributions however are limited until September 2002.

During the recent months, WFP has started - within the framework of its Emergency Operation 10155.0. - to expand its Food for Education programme including the two years pilot school feeding project in Badakhshan province. It also comprises components for enhancing girls' enrolment, teacher training, non-formal/vocational education and FFW for classroom and other school infrastructure rehabilitation/construction.

A WFP support programme for urban poor through a bakery project is at the moment under scrutiny in order to adapt this programme to the new economic circumstances. WFP has also implemented a "food for seed" exchange programme. The programme was highly successful in acquiring seeds and transferring them to poor farmers, but since the best conditions for reproducing seeds are in rather productive areas, food was exchanged with seeds from relatively better off farmers.

7.4 Estimates of food aid requirements for 2002/2003 and programme implementation

Through spot checking and interviews carried out in a limited number of households, the Mission found:

• a barely sufficient calorie intake combined with a very inadequate dietary composition of the food basket
• about 80 percent of the calories are derived from cereals
• each household on average consists of at least 8 family members
• poor households spend 90 percent and more of their overall income on food
• most households in the food insecure areas can cover their food needs out of own production only for a period of 4 to 6 months even in normal years
• the most important source of cash income of poor households stems from work on farms and construction sites in nearby areas, although temporary migration to Pakistan and Iran as well as remittances from relatives living permanently abroad are common
• the recent severe losses of livestock have very negatively affected the diet, the household cash income as well as the capacity for soil preparation
• food aid had a significant effect on stabilizing market prices in remote areas. Local purchases of larger quantities of food for the food aid programme bear the risk of causing sudden price rises, negatively affecting the purchasing power of the poorer population

The findings of the missions were consistent with the findings of the rapid assessments carried out by the VAM-unit of WFP during April/May 2002 and therefore the VAM-database was used for the interpretation of needs for the areas not visited by the mission. Since a severe lack of purchasing power has to be seen as a main reason for the inadequate food intake and since other pressing needs often compete with food purchases, an income transfer as food aid has a double purpose: it improves caloric intake and frees resources for other necessary expenditures.

The predominant Role of Food Aid for Afghanistan therefore will be to allow an income transfer large enough in order to enable the beneficiaries to recover their losses (or repay debts) as well as to save cash for investments in their agriculture. Food aid programmes therefore need to set as an objective a minimum "transfer value" per household in the form of food allocations. A policy of giving a little to everyone has to be avoided. Since "poverty targeting" within a community is difficult to achieve anywhere in the world, only a strict geographic targeting of the interventions as a first step will allow a sufficient transfer of food to the most needy.

In estimating the food aid requirements for the 2002/2003 season for the drought/conflict affected sedentary rural population, the mission used the VAM-database, its own household interviews as well as the newest findings of FAO on agricultural production and recovery as a basis to arrive at a percentage of vulnerable households per district. An average food transfer per family (8 persons) of 600 kg has been set as target. This transfer corresponds to about 44 percent of the yearly cereal needs and is considered as the minimum which will allow the beneficiary households to achieve the necessary income transfer mentioned above.

Due to problems in the resource pipeline starting in June 2002, WFP food distributions have dropped between half and one third of the estimated requirements. So far this reduction-with a few exceptions-has not had immediate serious consequences in view of better harvest and increased seasonal work opportunities. The programmes most seriously affected by this break in pipeline include food distribution to returning refugees and the IDP programme.

With winter months rapidly approaching and the consequent need for advanced deliveries to remote areas becoming inaccessible during winter, donors must now speed up the deliveries of outstanding pledges in order to allow the pre-positioning of stocks in time. Although the country looks relatively stable at this moment, any deterioration of security conditions either internally or externally could easily lead to the interruption of normal market supplies, to sudden rises of food prices and consequently to additional emergency food needs. These possible events would have catastrophic effects during the winter months and would lead to extremely costly special operations during winter. Since the normal programme activities require advanced deliveries as well and therefore cannot be used as buffer stocks for possibly large additional needs, a contingency stock for unforeseen events has to be placed in critical food deficit areas with difficult winter access (e.g. Badakhshan).

At the beginning of the 2002/2003 marketing year (July/June), WFP had about 75 000 tonnes of food as in country/regional stocks and outstanding deliveries from EMOP 10155.0 amounted to 195 000 tonnes until December 2002.
The WFP-emergency response for 2002/2003 should have the following components:

• Relief food assistance (including FoodAC programmes and community self-help activities) for areas considered most food insecure according to VAM wherever possible
• Food distribution to returning refugees and IDPs, including an assistance after return to their intended destinations
• Support to IDPs at their place of origin or resettlement
• Pilot programme for Kuchi-nomads
• School-Feeding programme
• Assistance to vulnerable urban population
• Strategic Reserve for the winter months and for unforeseen new emergency situation

Table 8 presents the estimates of regional allocations and beneficiary numbers for the Relief Component for Food Insecure Areas

Table 8. Afghanistan: Estimates of Food Aid Requirements to Vulnerable Rural Populations in 2002/03

Food assistance to returning refugees

As a general statement it can be said that amongst the millions displaced by war and drought during the recent years, many who found refuge in neighbouring countries are in general better off and have more means for reintegration than most of the internally displaced.

However, it is believed that a significant number of returnees in need for a much larger and longer-term assistance than the previous one-time return package of 150 kg of wheat/family (reduced to 100 kg /family from July 1^st, 2002 onward) could provide. For them it will be important to extend the assistance over a longer period following their return.

UNHCR assumes that on July 1, 2002 there are still about 800 000 refugees remaining in Pakistan and an estimated 400 000 in Iran who might return within the next 12 months, possibly a very large portion of them to urban areas. It is suggested that a larger assistance package be provided to an estimated third of the refugees - about 50 000 families (400 000 persons) - who are considered to be in greatest need. The total assistance package, including enhanced assistance to the neediest, would amount to 32 000 tonnes of wheat during 2002/2003.

Food assistance to internally displaced

Compared with the refugee population, the Internally Displaced until now have received much less assistance and attendance from the international aid community. UNHCR has now been entrusted to take care also of the IDP issue, which is part of a single strategy to avoid disparities and potential community tensions in the integration areas. Most IDP had to leave their home for the same reasons as the refugees and many of them just did not have the funds to seek safety in neighbouring countries. It therefore could be said that the IDPs are in relatively greater need.

For the 2002/2003 season, a WFP support to IDPs therefore should have a high priority. There is an estimated 1 million IDP still in Afghanistan. However, about 60 percent of them are Kuchi nomads who have lost most of their livestock and therefore concentrate in IDP-camps close to cities or to other places where they can find income. Because of the particularity and complexity of assistance to the Kuchi, the mission recommends a separate programme for this population group. As a result of ethnic tensions in the north of Afghanistan, the IDP-population is at the moment increasing and a further deterioration of this situation cannot be excluded.

It is estimated that 400 000 IDPs ( 50 000 families) are in urgent need for a continued and significant assistance through food aid. Assistance should be provided at their places of return/resettlement through preferential inclusion in work programmes. The rations should cover 50 percent of their needs for a period of 6 months.

Food assistance to Kuchi-nomads

More than half of the entire Kuchi population is estimated to have lost their livestock and now depend on other sources of livelihood. Food assistance or any other form of relief to them on one hand must avoid creating a dependency but on the other hand should either support a transition to a non-nomadic livelihood or help to rebuild the essential breeding stock of animals. Many of the Kuchi have already found employment in the construction and transport sectors.

There are however Kuchi who want to continue their traditional form of life but due to drought or expulsion from their traditional grazing areas have lost many of their animals. In order to avoid that these Kuchi are forced to sell the rest of their breeding stocks in order to obtain food, a food assistance programme which allows them to maintain their traditional lifestyle whilst providing them with temporary work opportunities might be a solution to their problems. Since access to water is an utmost priority for the Kuchi, FFW programmes, which create water retention basins for animals or wells for human water consumption, could be carried out close to the grazing areas.

Since special food distribution points would attract the Kuchi in expectation of food hand-outs (which would be disastrous with a large number of animals), more decentralized food distribution mechanisms should be considered. About 200 000 Kuchi (25 000 families), for whom a transitional food assistance would offer a way out of permanent destitution, could benefit from such a programme. Approximately16 000 tonnes of food would be required.

Assistance to urban poor/bakery project

This is a long standing WFP-project, which now will be adjusted to the new economic circumstances in Afghanistan. A review of this project will be taking place during 2002 to revise the current caseload of 350 000 requiring 42 000 tonnes of wheat flour on an annual basis.

Food assistance for schools

A WFP pilot- programme supporting school children as well as teachers, which also includes an incentive programme for the enrolment of female students, has been operating successfully in Badakhshan province for the last two years. This programme will now be considerably enlarged and be extended to other areas. About 50 000 tonnes of cereals will be required for this programme.

Salary food-supplement for civil servants

This project has no cereal components and therefore is not part of this assessment. This special component under WFP's emergency operation will be terminated in September 2002.

Contingency reserve for winter operation and for possible new conflicts

Since most of the regions of Afghanistan are to a large degree food insecure, they depend on uninterrupted supply lines from other regions or from neighbouring countries for their essential food supplies.

A still highly volatile security situation within the country and also the possibility of supply interruption from neighbouring Pakistan will have to be considered when drawing a contingency plan. The winter period is the most critical, because apart from the usual supply route disruptions caused by severe weather, any additional stress situation can lead to a possibly life threatening crisis.

During the critical winter period, food reserves for the ongoing programmes need to be pre-positioned. As no significant borrowings for additional needs will be possible, a security reserve should be established. In case some of the reserve is not utilized, the food stocks will be carried over into the next programme cycle. The security reserve should cover the needs of about 2 million people over 2 months. Approximately 60 000 tonnes of wheat will therefore be required. The pre-positioning should be done in places with difficult winter access, which might be affected by conflict or where sudden additional needs due to natural calamities could arise.

Table 9. Afghanistan: Estimates of Food Aid Requirements in 2002/03

8. MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM MEASURES

• Rehabilitation of the irrigation systems continues to be a high priority for the entire country. However, new investments should be concurrent with institutional and policy reforms to ensure equal access to water for all sections of society.
• Livestock populations throughout Afghanistan has seriously declined resulting in increased vulnerability for livestock dependent populations. There is an urgent need to rebuild livestock by investing in the following initiatives:
• Developing a breeding strategy that makes the best use of the limited artificial insemination system currently available for cattle.
• Ensuring the survival of the breeding stock by enhancing veterinary care and feed supplement provisions.
• Providing assistance for the expansion of veterinary programs for the Kuchi, through training community members in primary animal health care provisions.
• Encouraging pastoralists to keep maximum numbers of sheep and goat female breeding stock, through flock reconstitution subsidies.
• Sustained rural recovery is a necessary condition for improving security and stability in Afghanistan. The focus of interventions in Afghanistan has to shift from the short-term emergency phase to a more medium and long-term development plan with intermediate interventions designed to provide the necessary enabling environment. In this regard, it is noted that effective rural rehabilitation policies depend on a realistic understanding of existing production levels of all major farming systems.

1 Irrigated area is currently estimated at about 40 to 50 percent of its level in 1978.

2 The exchange rate in July 2002: US$1 = Afg40 000.

3 It should be noted that these statistics do not reflect either the cultivation of poppy or the production of narcotics known to be a major source of revenue.