ANNEX TABLES:

I. Food Availability, Prevalence and Depth of Undernourishment and Access to Food (1996-1998)

II. Health and Sanitation

III. Food : World Production, Utilization, Trade and Stock Changes

I. SUMMARY

1. Responding to recommendations expressed by the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) at its 25^th session, the document presents latest estimates of the number of undernourished persons and related information about the food, health and nutrition situation worldwide. This is followed by a brief review of the current situation as regards access to food and food availability at global and national level. Finally progress in developing a set of core indicators and indices that can be used to monitor trends for both outcome and vulnerability factors is summarised.

2. Revised databases have been used to prepare updated estimates on the number of the undernourished. They are discussed in section II of the document. In addition, estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment (proportion of undernourished people in a country's population) that were derived from these figures are presented. Since neither measure gives information on the severity of food insecurity, these figures are complemented by new data on the depth of undernourishment. Furthermore, by classifying countries according to the degree of food deprivation - a measure that combines prevalence and depth - progress of countries toward the goals of the World Food Summit can be better monitored. First results of this new approach are also reported in this section. Finally, a brief summary of the current situation as regards health and nutritional status, which are the desired outcomes of food security, is presented.

3. Section III refers to current conditions with respect to food availability and access to available food that are likely to affect the number of the undernourished in the world. In this context, overall economic performance as measured by GDP per caput are used to capture developments on the access side. As regards food availability, the current supply and demand situation for the main food commodities is outlined. Following this, changes in selected market-based food security indicators are monitored and information on the prevalence of food emergencies as well as changes in food aid flows is discussed. Finally, the current situation with regard to the cereal import bill of developing countries is summarised.

4. The final section IV contains a brief discussion of progress in selecting core indicators for use in monitoring food insecurity and vulnerability at global level. In recent years, it has been repeatedly proposed to develop one or more composite indices that could be used together with single variable indicators in future assessment reports. Following this suggestion, a conceptual framework for developing a food access index is presented in this document.

II. MONITORING THE NUMBER OF THE UNDERNOURISHED, THE PREVALENCE AND DEPTH OF UNDERNOURISHMENT, AND HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS OUTCOMES

A. ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF THE UNDERNOURISHED AND THE PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT

5. Latest estimates of undernourishment indicate that 792 million people in the developing world and 34 million in the developed world remain undernourished in 1996-98 (see Annex Table I and Figure 1). The total of 826 million undernourished people in the world represents no change from last year's estimate. Also on the regional level the picture has altered little since last year. This suggests that the trend in the decline in undernourishment observed in the first half of the nineties (an average 8 million reduction each year), was interrupted in 1998. The probable explanation for this is the particularly severe economic and climatic conditions that affected large areas in the developing world (financial crisis, el Nino) in that year.

6. The past declining trend was already far below the rate required to reach the Summit target, and the recent slowdown means that the rate of decline will have to be even higher in future years to compensate. New projections for 2015 and 2030 show that the reduction in the number of undernourished persons in the developing world by 2015 would still be far short of the World Food Summit goal, although the projection is now somewhat more optimistic than at the time of the Summit. According to these latest projections, the number of undernourished in the developing world could fall to around 580 million by 2015 (see Figure 1). However, the Summit target of no more than 400 million persons undernourished would only be reached towards 2030.

Undisplayed Graphic

7. A region-by-region analysis shows that the number of undernourished persons could decline by 2015 to levels close to the Summit target in South and East Asia, while sub-Saharan Africa and Near East / North Africa would still be far from the target with Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean being in a middle position.

8. Overall, the new projections reflect mainly the continuation of long-term declines in the prevalence of undernourishment in Asia that began in 1969-71 in East Asia and in 1979-81 in South Asia. In the two largest countries in the world - India and China - slowing down of population growth and strong growth of GDP would bring about significant increases in food availability per person between 1995-97 and 2015. The weighted average of the proportion of the undernourished for these two countries combined is projected to decline from 17 percent in 1995-97 to 7 percent in 2015.

9. In sub-Saharan Africa, prospects are not so favourable. Most of the world's poorest countries, where prevalence of undernourishment is high and opportunities for economic growth limited, are found in this region, particularly in the central, southern and eastern parts of the continent. While prevalence of undernourishment is projected to decline from 33 percent in 1995-97 to 22 percent in 2015, the high rate of population growth means that the actual number of undernourished persons could increase slightly between now and 2015. Some very poor countries in East Asia, the Caribbean and the Near East exhibit similar characteristics and also have poor prospects for halving the number of undernourished by 2015.

B. ESTIMATES OF THE DEPTH OF UNDERNOURISHMENT

10. The measures "number of undernourished" and "prevalence of undernourishment" do not provide information on the severity of food insecurity. Within countries having the same percentages of undernourished people, the situation among the individuals belonging to the group of the undernourished can differ significantly. Thus, for a more comprehensive evaluation of food insecurity, estimates of the prevalence should be complemented by measures reporting the depth or severity of undernourishment. The methodology established for this purpose is to calculate the average dietary energy deficit per person of the undernourished. This shows the shortfall in dietary energy supply of an average undernourished person, compared to the average minimum dietary energy requirement.

11. It has to be taken into account that the minimum energy requirement represents only the amount needed to sustain life and undertake light physical activity. Therefore, the measure yields a conservative estimate of the dietary energy deficit of the undernourished. According to the calculations, average deficits of the undernourished lie within the range of 130 to 490 kcal per person per day, with figures varying considerably across countries of different regions and sub-regions (see column 4 of Annex Table I). For a first evaluation of the results obtained, the 151 countries observed have been grouped according to the following classification:

Low depth of undernourishment: average dietary energy deficit per person < 200 kcal/day
Moderate depth of undernourishment: average dietary energy deficit per person between 200 and 300 kcal/day
High depth of undernourishment: average dietary energy deficit per person > 300 kcal/day

A low depth of undernourishment (average dietary energy deficit per undernourished person below 200 kcal per day) was found for 68 countries (most of them developed countries), whereas moderate and high dietary energy deficits resulted for 60 and 23 countries, respectively. Amongst countries with a high depth of undernourishment, 3 are found in Asia and the Pacific, 1 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1 in the Near East/North Africa, and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Among the latter, 11 countries have an average deficit per person of 310 - 350, 4 of 360 - 400, and 3 of over 400 kcal per day.

C. CLASSIFYING COUNTRIES AND MEASURING PROGRESS ACCORDING TO THE DEGREE OF FOOD DEPRIVATION

12. In order to give a more equal weight to both the prevalence and the depth of undernourishment in monitoring progress toward the Summit goals, a method for classifying countries according to the degree of food deprivation has been developed. To do this, three prevalence classes have been established, low (percentage of the undernourished
< 5 %), moderate (percentage of the undernourished between 5 and 19 %) and high (percentage of the undernourished � 20 %). Then, in a second step, these have been combined with the three classes of depth of undernourishment mentioned above, and a matrix has been developed showing the number of countries for each of the nine possible combinations of prevalence and depth of undernourishment (see Table 1).

Table 1: Number of countries, classified according to the degree of food deprivation¹

	Average food deficit of the undernourished (kcal per person per day) 1996-98
Prevalence of undernourishment 1996-98 (%)	< 200 (Low)	200-300 (Moderate)	> 300 (High)	TOTAL
< 5 (Low)	51	0	0	51
5-19 (Moderate)	17	29	0	46
� 20 (High)	0	31	23	54
TOTAL	68	60	23	151

13. From the 9 possible combinations shown, the case of low prevalence and low depth of undernourishment marks undoubtedly the least severe situation, whereas the combination of high prevalence and high depth of undernourishment is the worst case. For countries belonging to the latter category, particular efforts are necessary in order to achieve significant improvements for the undernourished populations.

14. Normally, progress toward the target of reducing the number of undernourished will also bring with it a reduction in the size of the dietary energy deficit per undernourished person. However, from the standpoint of the wellbeing of the undernourished, significant improvement could be achieved by reducing the deficit per undernourished person in countries where it is currently moderate to high, even without achieving a significant reduction in the number of undernourished persons in the short-term.

D. A BRIEF LOOK AT HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS

15. Country-by-country information about health and nutrition status is presented in Annex Table II. The table presents three indicators of nutritional status (percentage of children under five years old who were wasted, stunted or underweight at the time of the most recent survey), and three indicators of health status (life expectancy at birth, mortality rate for children under five and percentage of the population with access to adequate sanitation). The occurrence of high levels of all these indicators together obviously indicates severe health and nutritional problems, and conversely, when all indicators are low, the situation is much more benign.

16. Among the approximately 80 countries that have been examined, nine achieved excellent scores for all indicators, while 16 scored very badly on all six of them. These 16 countries also suffered from moderately high or very high prevalence of undernourishment.

17. In general, it is expected that nutritional status of children would be associated with food intake, health status and sanitary conditions of the population as a whole. Although this association is quite common, there are some instances where high percentages of children are underweight even where prevalence of undernourishment is low or access to sanitary facilities is very high. This confirms that nutritional status is determined by a combination of many different factors. Improved understanding of the interplay among these factors requires more systematic data collection and more sophisticated analysis. Developing these tools represents a high priority challenge for FIVIMS.

III. MONITORING CURRENT UNDERLYING CONDITIONS

A. OVERALL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

18. As discussed in Section IV below, GNP per capita, although highly imperfect, does provide some indication of the extent to which a country's population will be able to afford the food needed to meet minimum dietary energy requirements for a normal and healthy life. Country-by-country information on this indicator is thus provided in Annex Table I.

19. At the global level, latest estimates are available only for GDP.² Forecasts of GDP per person for 1999 and 2000 (using market exchange rates) indicate positive economic growth world-wide (see Table 2). These show that in 2000 highest growth rates can be expected for sub-Saharan Africa, where due to their expanding mining industry Mozambique, Botswana and Angola will be the best performing countries. Slower, but still strong growth rates are expected for North Africa and the Middle East. As the Brazilian economy recovered from its financial crisis in 1998 and 1999, regional GDP growth of Latin America and the Caribbean region increases from 0.0 % in 1999 to 3.4 % in 2000. While slightly recovering from the severe financial crisis in 1998, with an average annual GDP growth of 2.7 % in 2000, Asia is still far from the growth patterns observed in the early 1990s. Slow progress in economic growth is expected for countries in transition, among which Moldova, Slovakia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Czech Republic, Belarus, Croatia and Kazakhstan are belonging to the group of the 20 slowest-growing countries.

20. Preliminary projections³ of growth in regional GDP per capita income to the year 2005 suggest that the positive trend observed for the current period is likely to continue, although the rates of economic growth projected for Africa, while generally satisfying, may still not be sufficient to lift desperately impoverished countries on a level where the economic situation of their entire populations will improve significantly.

Table 2: Forecast of regional growth rates in GDP per person for 1999 and 2000⁴

Region	GDP growth (in %)
	1999	2000
Asia	2.8	2.7
Latin America & Caribbean	0.0	3.4
North Africa/Middle East	2.1	3.5
Sub-Saharan Africa	2.0	3.9
Countries in Transition	0.7	2.1
World	2.5	2.8

B. CURRENT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR MAJOR FOOD COMMODITIES

21. Regular monitoring and assessment of global market conditions for basic foods is an integral part of FAO's activities related to providing early warning information on economic variables that have considerable impact on the status of food security at the national, regional and global level. Annex Table III provides an overview of the current outlook for food staples (cereals, roots and tubers) and other basic foods. It should be noted that in order to improve the capability of FAO to provide early warning information on changing status of food security of vulnerable groups, the Secretariat has already begun a programme of work that entails development of techniques that would eventually allow linking its work on commodity market analysis at the country level to the assessment of food security status of vulnerable groups. Until the completion of this work programme, however, this document will continue to present a summary of FAO's latest assessment of the market conditions of basic foodstuffs for the current and forthcoming crop years.

22. Global production of food staples in 2000 is forecast to rise by about 1 percent from the previous year to 2,059 million tonnes. Most of that gain is expected in the developed countries while production is likely to remain unchanged from the previous year in the developing countries. Among the Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), production of food staples could even decline slightly.

23. World cereal output in 2000 is forecast to rise by about 1.3 percent from last year to 1896 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), about 1 percent above the estimate for 1999. The expected increase is due to an anticipated expansion in coarse grains while wheat output could remain virtually unchanged from the previous season and rice production may decline below the record output in 1999. Low international prices and changes in national policies are reported as the main causes for the reduction in rice output in 2000. Based on current forecasts, total cereal utilisation in 2000/01 would exceed production and cause global cereal stocks to be drawn down for the second consecutive year. Consequently, the overall supply and demand balance for the coming season begins to look somewhat tighter than in the past two seasons and this could eventually result in higher prices. To avoid any further deterioration of the cereal supply and demand balance, a more significant increase in cereal production would be necessary in 2001.

24. World production of roots and tubers in 2000 is forecast at 652 million tonnes (in fresh roots equivalent) of which 72 percent is produced in developing countries, mainly in the LIFDCs (59 percent). Potatoes, cassava and sweet potatoes account respectively for 45, 26 and 20 percent of the global production, the remainder being other roots and tubers such as taro, yautia and cocoyams. Only a small proportion of roots and tubers production is traded internationally mainly because most production occurs in developing countries for on-farm use, while the high degree of perishability and bulkiness makes the transportation costs very high. International trade is largely limited to processed cassava (chips and pellets) for feed and for potatoes.

25. Global production of oils and fats has continuously increased over the 1990s, reaching an estimated 114 million tonnes in the 1999/2000 season. All regions, except the group of CIS countries, participated in this increase. The world's leading producing region is Asia, which in 1999/2000 was estimated to account for almost 40 percent of global production, followed by North and Central America (23 %), Europe and South America (respectively 15% and 13%). At 50 million tonnes, Asia is also the world's leading consumer of oils and fats, followed by North and Central America and Europe. In recent years, consumption growth has been fastest in Asia and North/Central America. With regard to trade, in the last decade, Asia has consolidated its leading position in both the global export and import market for oils and fats. The region's imports have increased by almost 50 percent since the mid 1990s, reaching 23.5 million tonnes in 1999/2000. The world's second most largest importing region is Europe (about 12 million tonnes), while the other two major exporting regions are North and South America (respectively, 11 and 10 million tonnes).

26. The growth in global meat production is expected to be constrained to 2 percent in 2000, as low meat prices in 1999 dampen red meat output prospects in major producing and exporting countries. Hog inventories contract and herd rebuilding commences in the cattle industry of developed regions. The resulting decline in total meat production in these regions is, however, expected to be offset by growing supplies in the developing countries. The reduced meat supplies in the developed countries, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of meat shipments in 1999, is adversely affecting the volume of trade in meat products in 2000, expected to increase by only one-percent. Further determining factors are slightly higher red meat prices than in 1999 and limited prospects for new meat food aid to the Russian Federation. Asian meat imports in 2000, while not expected to replicate their double-digit surge in 1999, are likely to remain robust, while shipments to North America, the second largest import market after Asia, are likely to be supported by lower domestic meat output. However, growth in these markets is not expected to offset declining Russian imports. Exports by the United States in the context of lower supplies and higher domestic prices are set to increase only slightly. Likewise, EC exports will be compromised by a reduction in the WTO export ceiling for all meat exports and the prohibition on rolling over unused subsidies as of July 2000. By contrast, the lower relative prices in South America, generated by the devaluation of the Brazilian currency in 1999 and maintained by strong trading links between Mercosur countries, should facilitate exports from this region in 2000. Product movement from this region into the United States could be further bolstered by their improved animal health status, particularly the regions in Brazil likely to be declared free of foot and mouth disease in 2000.

27. Global milk output is expected to rise by 2 percent during 2000, with production increasing in most countries. Positive growth is forecast for most regions of the world, in particular Oceania, South America and South Asia. Nevertheless, the likely expansion in production of milk among the major exporting countries may not be sufficient to meet the anticipated faster rise in world import demand in 2000. If this were to happen, supplies of some dairy products to the world market, especially skimmed milk powder, could be in short supply. As a result, average prices for 2000 are expected to be higher than the previous year.

C. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY INDICATORS

28. Table 3 shows seven individual food security indicators that have been in use since the mid-1970s. These indicators, while confined to cereals, shed light on the present and future global food situation. The analysis of the developments in 1999/2000 and the forecast for 2000/01 are provided below.

Table 3. Changes in Food Security Indicators⁵

	Average 1993/4 - 1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000	2000/01*
1. World Cereal Stocks as a percentage of World Cereal Consumption Trends	16.70	18.20	17.4	16.60
2. Ratio of Five Major Grain Exporters Supplies to Requirements**	1.14	1.18	1.17	1.16
3. Closing Stocks as a percentage of Total Disappearance of Major Cereal Exporters :
Wheat **	16.90	22.90	21.40	20.90
Coarse Grains **	13.20	19.60	18.00	18.60
Rice #	9.70	10.20	10.70	9.40
Total	13.30	17.60	16.70	16.30
	Annual Trend Growth Rate	Percentage Change from Previous Year
	1990-1999	1998	1999	2000
4. Changes in Cereal Production in China, India and CIS	-0.12	-4.25	1.32	-1.38
5. Changes in Cereal Production in LIFDC	1.74	2.88	-0.01	-1.22
6.Changes in Cereal Production in LIFDCs less China and India	2.38	4.78	0.29	1.32
		Percentage Change from Previous Year
		1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000
7. Export Price Movements † (Annual Averages)	Wheat (July/June)	-21.20	-15.80	-6.30
	Maize (July/June)	-16.90	-15.60	-3.90
	Rice (Jan./Dec.) �	-8.50	0.50	-10.70
* Forecast. ** Argentina, Australia, Canada, EC and the United States. # China , Pakistan, Thailand, United States and Vietnam. † Wheat : U.S. no.2 Hard Winter; Maize: U.S. no.2 Yellow; Rice Thai Broken (A1 Super). � Rice Prices are based on the calendar year of the first year shown.

29. The first indicator provides information about global stocks in relation to the likely level of market demand. In general, the FAO Secretariat considers that a 17-18 percent ratio of end-of-season cereal stocks to trend utilisation for the coming marketing year is the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security. This consists of a 12 percent working stock and a 5-6 percent reserve stock element. World cereal stocks by the close of the seasons ending in 2000 are put at 331 million tonnes, down 15 million tonnes, or slightly more than 4 percent below the previous year. All of the anticipated reduction is in stocks of wheat and coarse grains, as rice inventories are expected to increase for the second consecutive year. Overall, the ratio of global cereal carryovers to trend utilisation in 2000/01 is put at 17.4 percent, which is within the 17-18 percent minimum safeguard range. Based on the latest production outlook for 2000, world cereal stocks would have to be reduced further in order to meet the expected global utilisation in 2000/01. Therefore, by the end of countries' marketing seasons in 2001, the level of global cereal stocks is forecast to be around 321 million tonnes, some 10 million tonnes, or 3 percent, below the already reduced opening level. Stocks of nearly all major cereals are forecast to be smaller and this possible draw-down of cereal stocks could lower the stocks-to-use ratio to 16.6 percent, which is slightly below the minimum safeguard level

30. The second indicator measures the ability of the five major grain exporting countries to meet the import demand for wheat and coarse grains. It is the ratio of the sum of their production, imports and opening stocks to the sum of their domestic utilisation plus exports⁶. This ratio for 1999/2000 is estimated at 1.17, down slightly from the previous year but higher than the long-term average of 1.14. Based on the preliminary supply and demand indications for 2000/01, this ratio could decline to 1.16 percent. On the supply side, the total grain production in major exporting countries is forecast to increase in 2000 but their combined opening stocks are lower than in the previous year. On the demand side, both domestic utilisation and exports are likely to show an increase over the previous year.

31. The third set of indicators refers to the ratio of the volume of closing cereal stocks held by the major exporters of wheat, coarse grain and rice to the total disappearance of these cereals (domestic consumption plus exports). Based on the latest estimates for 1999/2000, these ratios, except for rice, reflect a slight decline from the previous season. The main factor driving the ratios down in 1999/2000 is lower ending wheat and barley stocks in the EC, following last year’s decline in their production. Looking further ahead into 2000/01, a likely increase in coarse grain production in Canada, the EC and the United States could result in a small recovery in the ratio for coarse grains. By contrast, smaller wheat production, especially in Canada and United States, could pull down the overall wheat ratio below the previous year. The ratio for rice is also expected to fall below the previous year’s level, as production in China is likely to be smaller.

32. The fourth indicator measures changes in cereal production among the major cereal importing countries of China, India and the CIS against the trend and the preceding year. For 1999, this indicator points to a significant improvement over the previous year, rising by 1.32 percent as compared to over 4 percent decline in 1998. For wheat, all the countries included in this category registered an increase in their output. Also for rice, the overall performance was a positive one as China’s production was nearly the same as in the previous year while India harvested even bigger crops compared to 1998. For coarse grains, however, the recovery was mostly confined to CIS, as production in China and India fell. With regard to 2000, the overall change is expected to be negative, falling by 1.38 percent from the previous year, although cereal output is forecast to rise in India and the CIS. The reason is entirely China, where the latest forecasts for cereal production in 2000 point to a drop in output of some 12 million tonnes. It should be noted that, except for the CIS, cereal imports by China (mainland) and India have remained relatively small. Growing cereal production in China in recent years has made China a net-cereal exporting country while imports by India have also been on decline in response to bumper domestic crops.

33. The fifth indicator focuses specifically on changes in aggregate cereal production of the Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs). For 1999, total cereal production in this group of countries fell only marginally compared to the previous year. The decline may prove more significant in 2000, with total output falling by about 1.22 percent compared to 1999. However, because production in China and India could heavily influence the overall effectiveness of this indicator, the sixth indicator measures the changes in aggregate cereal production of the LIFDCs, excluding China and India. In fact, for 1999, total cereal output for this group of countries are up slightly while, for 2000, it is forecast to show a 1.32 percent expansion; this compares to 1.22 percent decline when China and India were included.

34. The seventh indicator provides a comparison of export prices for the major cereals. Except for rice, international cereal prices continued to trend downward in 1998/99. Further drops in prices were registered for nearly all types of cereals during the 1999/2000 season. The main factor behind weak prices in recent years has been the large volume of export supplies, especially among the traditional cereal exporting countries, in view of only a modest growth in commercial trade of cereals (i.e. net of food aid).

35. Overall, the seven indicators point to a generally positive situation for the cereal importing countries in aggregate terms during the past marketing year. For 1999/2000, cereal supply proved adequate and prices were generally weak. Nevertheless, the outlook for 2000/01 suggests a somewhat tighter situation, with the general supply and demand picture pointing to a further reduction in stocks by the end of seasons in 2001. Currently, more than 100 million people in 26 countries in all regions of the world are drought affected. Although not all of these countries have declared formal food emergencies, the effects of widespread drought on the food security situation of both consumers and producers in affected countries, combined with the relatively low level of global cereal stocks, suggest that the coming year may be more difficult.

D. FOOD EMERGENCIES AND FOOD AID

36. Food and agricultural emergencies, caused by civil conflict and natural or man-made disasters, far too often result in food insecurity in one part of the world or another. In 1999, natural disasters have been an important factor contributing to a decline in cereal production in developing countries which, estimated at an estimated 1,026 million tonnes, is about 2 percent below the previous year. In addition, many people lost access to income and markets were disrupted in a number of locations affected by conflict. As of November 1999, the number of affected persons worldwide was 52 million people.

37. As of end May 2000 thirty-six developing countries faced serious food shortages, primarily due to drought, but also due to civil strife and floods, particularly in Africa. In addition several countries in transition also faced considerable difficulties in ensuring that all segments of their populations were adequately fed.

Locations of particular concern include:

In Africa (16 countries), Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.
In Asia (11 countries), Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, East Timor, Georgia, Iraq, Jordan, Korea DPR, Mongolia, Syria, Tajikistan.
In Latin America (7 countries), Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela.
In Europe (2 countries), Russian Federation, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

38. Based on the latest information from the World Food Programme, total cereal shipments as food aid in 1999/2000 (July/June) reached 7.5 million tonnes, down substantially from 10.8 million tonnes in 1998/99. Reduced shipments to the Russian Federation accounted for most of this decline. Estimates of potential food aid shipments for 2000/01 (July/June) are rendered difficult as information on food aid budget allocations and intentions provided to FAO by individual donor countries to-date is proving harder to obtain. This owes in part to the nature of the new Food Aid Convention (FAC). The new Convention, which came into effect in July 1999, calls for a more flexible approach to food aid by expanding the list of eligible commodities and the method of contributions⁷. Therefore, forecasting food aid shipments is becoming increasingly difficult.

E. CEREAL IMPORT BILLS

39. The cereal import bill of the developing countries in 1999/2000 is expected to be close to US $ 21 billion, which is about US $ 600 million, or 3 percent, below the previous year's value in spite of a likely reduction in food aid deliveries from the previous year. Weak international cereal prices during the course of the 1999/2000 trade season largely compensated for the rise in import volume. For the LIFDCs, the overall cereal import bill is seen to fall by at least 7 percent, to below US $ 9 billion, with imports at 70.5 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from last year's estimated volume. The decline in imports is due to reduced purchases by a few countries where production increased.

IV. MONITORING TRENDS AND MEASURING VULNERABILITY: LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

A. SELECTION AND MONITORING OF CORE INDICATORS

40. As reported to the 25^th Session of the CFS, the monitoring of trends has two purposes. One is to capture the longer-term trends in indicators that are important measures of food security and nutritional wellbeing. The other is to pick up changes that may be occurring in underlying structural factors that cause vulnerability and thus to foresee what may lie ahead with respect to achievement of Summit goals.

41. Last year’s report provided information for two status indicators (average dietary energy supply per capita and GNP per capita), which are directly related to food availability and food access, and seven vulnerability indicators (share of rural population in total, arable land per capita, share of agriculture in GDP, proportion of roads that are paved, yields per hectare for major cereal crops, proportion of countries that experienced an emergency situation, and under 5 mortality rate), representing five major domains considered relevant for food security, i.e., demographic conditions, environmental conditions, economic conditions, political conditions and social conditions.

42. This year, the number of information domains from which key indicators have been selected has been expanded from seven to fifteen. This is based on the transformation of the FIVIMS conceptual framework contained in CFS:98/5 "Guidelines for National FIVIMS", into a set of information modules, for each of which a menu of relevant indicators is being developed by the Inter-Agency Working Group (IAWG) for inclusion in the Key Indicators Database System (KIDS) (see CFS: 2000/6 for more details). These fifteen modules, or information domains, are shown in Table 4, together with those indicators for each module that the FAO secretariat has previously used for preparing past CFS assessment documents and The State of Food Insecurity in the World 1999. This list does not constitute a set of recommended indicators. Rather it simply indicates the range of indicators that are needed for adequate analysis for food insecurity and vulnerability.

43. Both the secretariat and other IAWG members have noted on several occasions that KIDS should not be restricted to only those core indicators that are considered most relevant for monitoring progress toward various social goals. Thus, the complete KIDS system will provide access to a large number of relevant indicators, each of which can be found in existing international or national database. This will give users flexibility to choose which indicators to use for different monitoring and assessment objectives. Furthermore, the IAWG has repeatedly stressed that for national FIVIMS, the selection of indicators must be dictated primarily by national needs, and must include appropriate sub-national and household level indicators that are relevant for specific vulnerable groups within the country.

44. Nevertheless, recognising that for purposes of cross-country comparison, a short list of core indicators for monitoring World Food Summit Follow-up was needed, the IAWG subgroup on Indicators, Assessment and Mapping has developed a preliminary list of eight indicators that it considers could be used for monitoring purposes at global level. These are shown in Table 4 with an asterisk, and data for all but two of them (index of food production variability and percent of income spent on food) are included in the tables annexed to this document. They are:

Food Availability

Dietary energy supply per person

Food Access

GNP per caput
Percent of income spent on food

Stability of Food Supplies and Access

Index of variability of food production

Health and Sanitation

Access to safe water

Food Consumption Status

Percent of population undernourished

Health Status

Under 5 mortality rate

Nutritional Status

Percent of under 5 children underweight

45. CFS:2000/2/Sup.1 compares the proposed FIVIMS core indicator list with other core indicator lists that have been developed through inter-agency co-operation by OECD under the "Progress toward International Development Goals" programme, and by the United National Development Group in the UNDAF (UN Development Assistance Framework) programme, especially in the CCA (Common Country Assessment) component of that joint monitoring, evaluation, and planning effort at country level. The comparison was made to see whether the indicators from the OECD and UNDAF efforts (which overlap to a great extent) would suffice for the FIVIMS core list or whether these needed to be supplemented in order to account for variables of specific relevance to Summit follow-up monitoring. The document concludes with a recommendaton for a core list of indicators for FIVIMS that builds on the existing international concensus, adding only a few new indicators to those already agreed, in order to ensure adequate coverage of World Food Summit goals and food security processes.

46. Monitoring results for the core indicators can be presented for each indicator individually as has been done this year, as well as in past assessment reports. The potential significance of each of the five main indicator categories, with special reference to the preliminary list of eight core indicators and others reported in this document (shown in bold), is discussed briefly below.

Structural, or contextual factors (column A in Table 4) are the external factors that determine livelihood systems and general living standards of a country. These factors may change positively or negatively over longer time periods with socio-economic development or other structural shifts (out-migration, adoption of new technology, discovery of new resources, investment in new physical or social infrastructure, improvement in education levels, etc.). Levels of these indicators are often associated with outcome indicators but direct causal relationships are often more difficult to establish.
Factors that reflect the performance of the general economy (column B in Table 4) and the food economy enable the analyst to assess current conditions with respect to food availability and food access. Reasonably good estimates of food availability, expressed as dietary energy supply per person, can be obtained from the national food balance sheets that FAO maintains. Good indicators of food access at national level are harder to come by. For example, in general GNP per caput is strongly associated with the proportion undernourished. Due to differences in distributional patterns from one country to another, this association is not a perfect fit. But when combined with an indicator of poverty and its impact on food consumption, such as the percent of income spent on food, GNP data can be relevant. Althouth widely-recognised as an important determinant of food security status for many poor people, indicators that can are/be used to monitor stability of supplies, prices and incomes are not readily available. Use of an index of production variability has been recommended as a proxy for both stability of supplies and of farm income.
Factors representing immediate or proximate causes of problems of food insecurity and vulnerability are best monitored at household level. An approach for doing this is discussed in more detail in CFS:2000/5 "Who Are the Food Insecure?" The most critical areas for monitoring are: (a) household characteristics and livelihood strategies (b) health and sanitation status of households, and (c) care and feeding practices of households. Internationally comparable indicators are less readily available for these categories since they deal with highly decentralised and differentiated behaviour at the household level (column C in Table 4). Only those that reflect national-level interventions such as access to safe water and access to sanitation are easily monitored at national level. However, under the right information collection conditions, the causal relationships between household-level indicators and the outcome are very clear and strong. These relationships are also the ones that can be immediately affected by specific food, income, nutrition practice, health, and sanitation interventions.
Outcome indicators are the focus of targets of specific summits and conferences. In reporting progress, the intermediate outcomes (column D in Table 4), are represented by percent of population undernourished (food consumption), and by life expectancy at birth and under 5 mortality rate (health status, which affects the biological utilisation of food).
Finally, information is provided on proportion of children under 5 that are underweight, stunted or wasted – all good indicators of the ultimate outcome of nutritional status (column E in Table 4).

Table 4. Indicator Categories proposed for Inclusion in KIDS, and Preliminary Core Indicator Proposals

VULNERABILITY INDICATOR CATEGORIES			STATUS INDICATOR CATEGORIES
A. National and sub-National Context	B. National Food Economy	C. Household Context	D. Intermediate Outcomes	E. Final Outcome
1. Demographic Conditions Population growth rate Urban/rural population shares	7. Food Availability Food production index Dietary energy supply per person*	10. Household Characteristics Average household size (for different population categories) Average household income and expenditure patterns (for different population categories	13. Food Consumption Status Percent of population undernourished* Major food group as % of diet	15. Nutritional Status Proportion of children under 5 that are underweight*, stunted or wasted Proportion of adults with low body mass index
2. Environment Conditions Arable land per capita Severely degraded land as % of total area	8. Food Access GNP per person* Gini-index of income distribution Percent of income spent on food* Food prices index Paved roads as % of total road mileage	11. Health and Sanitation Access to safe water* Access to adequate sanitation	14. Health Status Life expectancy at birth Under 5 mortality rate*
3. Economic Conditions Share of agriculture in GDP Cropped area as % of total Yields per hectare for major cereals Growth in cereal yields Growth in staple food yields, by commodity Growth in GDP	9. Stability of Food Supplies and Access Index of variability of food production*	12. Care and Feeding Practices Weaning age Number of meals eaten in a day
4. Political Conditions Proportion of countries facing an emergency
5. Socio-Cultural Conditions Literacy rate
6. Risks, Hazards, Shocks Rainfall variability

* Indicates that this indicator has been suggested by the IAWG subgroup for inclusion in the list of core indicators for FIVIMS. Current information on these indicators has been reported in one of the Annex Tables included in this document, except for the index of variability of food production, and the percent income spent on food, which are not readily available. The indicator for access to safe water has been replaced with the indicator for access to sanitation.

B. INDICES AND OTHER ALTERNATIVES IN THE ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS OF VULNERABILITY

47. In the last ten years a number of development indices, particularly the UNDP Human Development Index (HDI), have received an increasing amount of attention. Some analysts have wondered whether the development of a similar "vulnerability index" might be a fruitful area for development in the context of FIVIMS and for reporting to the CFS, and the CFS itself has repeatedly suggested to develop a composite measure, or index, instead of comparing single indicators.⁸

48. In the field of development, most indices report on the results of the development process rather than on the means or the process itself. For example the HDI is the average of three outcome components of human development: longevity (as measured by life expectancy); knowledge (as measured by adult literacy, weighted 2/3, and by mean years of schooling, weighted 1/3); and standard of living (measured by GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity). Similarly, the poverty gap index is a two variable outcome index which combines the prevalence of those who are poor and the average size of their income shortfall below the poverty line.

49. One area that could be explored for future CFS assessment reports relates to the development of an index to express the overall degree of food deprivation in a country. Another possibility could involve developing an index that reflects current underlying conditions with respect to the proximate causes of food insecurity and poor nutrition. Such indices would provide additional tools for monitoring the current situation, with special emphasis on cross-country comparisons of developments on the food access side to complement those already reported on the food supply side.

50. For example, a food access index might be composed of indicators linked to income, food prices and health, reflecting both the capacity of individuals to obtain access to sufficient quantities of food for an adequate diet, and their physiological capacity to utilise effectively the foods consumed.

51. The relevance of income, price and health indicators for food access is supported by field observations reported in the context of interdisciplinary and participatory brainstorming sessions initiated by FAO in 12 countries (Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Guatemala, Liberia, Mauritania, Namibia, Nicaragua, Somalia, Tonga, Turkey and Vietnam), where these indicators were frequently cited as important causes of vulnerability.⁹

52. Indices do have some advantages over looking sequentially at the relationships between explanatory factors and outcome indicators. Indices can present in one figure the combined influence of several explanatory factors. Once constructed, indices can be used for comparisons and, ultimately for outcome ranking.

53. However, the construction of an index can be very complicated. First, the variables that are included in an index must be established as being important, in explaining and predicting the outcome, and the way the variables are combined must also be meaningful. When a number of variables are combined, the appropriate mathematical relationship must be established. This can be additive, multiplicative, or expressed as a ratio.

54. In addition to the developmental work on indices that might be used as part of the CFS monitoring process, work is also underway to investigate the possibility of developing a composite measure of vulnerability for use by national FIVIMS. The work done thus far has led to the following conclusions:

Indices make sense when they are constructed in relationship to homogeneous problems. Since FIVIMS is dealing with a series of nutritional problems which vary by region, level of development, and by primary causal explanation, the first step is to define reasonably homogeneous problem domains;
Indices need to be constructed of variables whose importance in the primary causal relationship has been conclusively demonstrated, usually through the use of appropriate statistical methods. This needs to be the second step in the process; and
From the perspective of intervention, the causes of most of the nutritional problems affecting population groups in developing countries are generally well known. The problems are more in conducting appropriate information collection to reveal the incidence of a problem with particular groups, organised by household characteristics and location, and determining the priority areas on which available resources should be focused to deal with problems that are of particular importance for specific groups or locations within the country.

55. In taking further steps for developing status and vulnerability indices, one has to take into account the fact that composite indices never replace information provided by single indicators, but give additional information on countries’ food insecurity and vulnerability situations.

ANNEX TABLE I

Food Availability, Prevalence and Depth of Undernourishment and Access to Food (1996-98)

REGION, SUB-REGION, COUNTRY	FOOD AVAILABILITY	PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT		DEPTH OF UNDER-NOURISHMENT	ACCESS TO FOOD
	Average per capita dietary energy supply 1996-98 (kcal/day)	Proportion population undernourished 1996-98 (%)	Number of under-nourished 1996-98 (million)	Average food deficit per person 1996-98 (kcal/day)	GNP per capita 1996-98 (constant US $)
DEVELOPING WORLD	2716	18	791.9	255	1205
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC	2791	17	515.2	263	866
East Asia	2946	12	155.0	245	1156
China (Mail and Taiwan) [3]	2940	11	140.1	250	667
China,H.Kong SAR [1]	3200	*	0.1	140	22778
Korea DPR [5]	1860	57	13.2	340	...
Korea Rep [1]	3120	*	0.5	130	11422
Mongolia [5]	1960	45	1.1	310	397
Oceania	2140	29	1.3	260	1023
Papua N Guinea [4]	2140	29	1.3	260	1023
Southeast Asia	2385	13	64.7	233	1280
Cambodia [4]	2060	33	3.4	270	279
Indonesia [3]	2470	6	12.3	200	1019
Laos [4]	2190	29	1.5	280	411
Malaysia [1]	2430	*	0.5	140	4278
Myanmar [3]	2300	7	3.1	200	...
Philippines [4]	2060	21	15.2	270	1150
Thailand [4]	2880	21	12.2	260	2760
Viet Nam [4]	2120	22	16.5	280	309
South Asia	2778	23	294.2	291	425
Bangladesh [5]	2890	38	46.8	330	347
India [4]	2830	21	207.6	290	424
Nepal [4]	2390	28	6.2	270	219
Pakistan [4]	2440	20	28.9	270	489
Sri Lanka [4]	2410	25	4.5	260	763
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN	2683	11	54.9	224	3841
North America	2420	5	5.1	210	4149
Mexico [3]	2420	5	5.1	210	4149
Caribbean	2333	31	9.6	330	1282
Cuba [4]	2270	19	2.1	220	...
Dominican Rep [4]	1840	28	2.2	260	1612
Haiti [5]	2660	62	4.8	460	367
Jamaica [3]	2690	10	0.2	200	1579
Trinidad & Tobago [3]	2750	13	0.2	230	4214
Central America	2387	20	6.6	237	1472
Costa Rica [3]	2540	6	0.2	160	2647
El Salvador [3]	2180	11	0.6	200	1681
Guatemala [4]	2340	24	2.5	240	1483
Honduras [4]	2190	22	1.3	270	681
Nicaragua [4]	2450	31	1.5	300	384
Panama [4]	3130	16	0.4	230	2961
South America	2809	10	33.6	221	4146
Argentina [1]	3150	*	0.4	140	8011
Bolivia [4]	2200	23	1.8	230	916
Brazil [3]	2960	10	15.9	250	4465
Chile [2]	2820	4	0.6	150	4524
Colombia [3]	2580	13	5.2	220	2341
Ecuador [3]	2710	5	0.5	160	1496
Guyana [3]	2450	18	0.2	230	753
Paraguay [3]	2570	13	0.7	220	1872
Peru [3]	2390	18	4.4	240	2498
Suriname [3]	2640	10	0.0	190	933
Uruguay [2]	2810	4	0.1	150	5762
Venezuela [3]	2360	16	3.7	200	3444
NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA	2907	10	35.9	177	1952
Near East	2738	13	30.3	165	2358
Afghanistan [5]	1620	70	14.6	470	...
Iran [3]	2830	6	4.1	190	1276
Iraq [3]	2340	17	3.5	210	...
Jordan [3]	2790	5	0.2	170	1470
Kuwait [2]	3050	4	0.1	180	...
Lebanon [1]	3270	*	0.1	160	2926
Saudi Arabia [2]	2860	3	0.6	150	6814
Syria [1]	3350	*	0.2	160	1063
Turkey [1]	3500	*	1.2	170	3150
United Arab Em [1]	3370	*	0.0	140	19342
Yemen [5]	2050	35	5.7	290	226
North Africa	3180	4	5.6	195	1297
Algeria [3]	2980	5	1.4	190	1438
Egypt [2]	3280	4	2.6	200	1113
Libya [1]	3250	*	0.0	130	...
Morocco [3]	3130	5	1.4	210	1311
Tunisia [1]	3260	*	0.1	130	2097
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA	2205	34	185.9	291	297
Central Africa	1898	50	38.5	344	300
Cameroon [4]	2190	29	4.1	260	592
Central African Rep [5]	2000	41	1.4	310	325
Chad [5]	2070	38	2.7	330	218
Congo, Dem R [5]	1750	61	29.3	380	118
Congo, Rep [4]	2170	32	0.9	290	661
Gabon [3]	2540	8	0.1	160	3986
East Africa	2010	42	79.9	306	207
Burundi [5]	1640	68	4.3	410	143
Eritrea [5]	1650	65	2.2	370	210
Ethiopia [5]	1850	49	28.4	340	110
Kenya [5]	1970	43	12.2	290	329
Rwanda [5]	2030	39	2.3	330	210
Somalia [5]	1550	75	6.6	490	...
Sudan [3]	2430	18	5.1	240	250
Tanzania [5]	2000	41	12.7	300	174
Uganda [4]	2140	30	6.0	280	324
Southern Africa	2024	42	34.5	337	449
Angola [5]	1910	43	5.0	320	167
Botswana [4]	2210	27	0.4	240	3440
Lesotho [4]	2230	29	0.6	280	717
Madagascar [5]	2010	40	5.8	310	229
Malawi [4]	2170	32	3.2	310	176
Mauritius [2]	2940	6	0.1	180	3837
Mozambique [5]	1860	58	10.7	420	163
Namibia [4]	2130	31	0.5	260	2196
Swaziland [3]	2490	14	0.1	210	1540
Zambia [5]	1960	45	3.9	340	375
Zimbabwe [5]	2140	37	4.2	340	662
West Africa	2570	16	33.0	238	316
Benin [3]	2540	14	0.8	220	381
Burkina Faso [4]	2160	32	3.5	290	250
C�te d'Ivoire [3]	2610	14	1.9	230	733
Gambia [3]	2520	16	0.2	240	341
Ghana [3]	2670	10	1.9	210	392
Guinea [4]	2310	29	2.1	320	564
Liberia [5]	2000	46	1.1	390	...
Mali [4]	2150	32	3.4	290	257
Mauritania [3]	2630	13	0.3	240	452
Niger [5]	1940	46	4.5	350	205
Nigeria [3]	2760	8	8.6	210	231
Senegal [4]	2290	23	2.0	240	557
Sierra Leone [5]	2050	43	1.9	380	162
Togo [3]	2460	18	0.8	260	332
COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION	2890	6	26.4	167	1956
COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES	2776	8	22.8	175	1575
Armenia [4]	2350	21	0.7	210	836
Azerbaijan [4]	2190	32	2.4	240	400
Belarus [1]	3160	*	0.1	140	2031
Estonia [3]	2950	6	0.1	180	3645
Georgia [4]	2320	23	1.2	210	682
Kazakhstan [3]	2860	5	0.7	160	1266
Kyrgyzstan [3]	2490	17	0.8	230	806
Latvia [2]	2930	4	0.1	150	2217
Lithuania [1]	3110	*	0.1	140	2037
Moldova Rep [3]	2690	11	0.5	210	666
Russian Fed [3]	2840	6	8.6	170	2125
Tajikistan [4]	2160	32	1.9	250	333
Turkmenistan [3]	2620	10	0.4	290	504
Ukraine [3]	2830	5	2.6	160	834
Uzbekistan [3]	2550	11	2.6	180	980
EASTERN EUROPE	3165	3	3.6	148	2874
Albania [2]	3030	3	0.1	150	800
Bosnia Herzegovina [3]	2660	10	0.4	230	...
Bulgaria [3]	2700	13	1.1	220	1320
Croatia [3]	2610	12	0.5	180	4632
Czech Rep [1]	3280	*	0.1	130	5140
Hungary [1]	3350	*	0.1	140	4514
Macedonia [3]	2790	7	0.1	170	1311
Poland [1]	3330	*	0.3	130	3649
Romania [1]	3280	*	0.3	140	1394
Slovakia [2]	2960	4	0.2	150	3632
Slovenia [2]	2970	3	0.1	140	10277
Yugoslavia [2]	3040	3	0.3	150	...
NOTES: TABLE 1 Figure in brackets [ ] denotes prevalence category, i.e. proportion of the population undernourished in 1996-98. Category [1] <2.5% undernourished [2] 2.5-4% undernourished [3] 5-19% undernourished [4] 20-34% undernourished [5] = or > 35% undernourished * : percentage of undernourished below 2.5% … Data unavailable
SOURCES: TABLE 1 Average dietary energy supply (DES) FAO estimates. Average food deficit per person FAO estimates. GNP per capita (in constant US$) World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2000 Edition. Number of undernourished FAO estimates. Undernourished in total population FAO estimates.

ANNEX TABLE II

Health and Sanitation

REGION, SUB-REGION, COUNTRY	HEALTH AND SANITATION			NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF CHILDREN UNDER FIVE
	Access to adequate sanitation 1990/97 (%)	Life expectancy at birth 1995 (years)	Under 5 mortality rate 1995 (per '000)	Underweight around 1995 (a) (%)	Stunted around 1995 (a) (%)	Wasted around 1995 (a) (%)
DEVELOPING WORLD
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
East Asia
China [3]	24	69	47	17	34	5
Korea DPR [5]	...	72	30	...	...	...
Korea Rep [1]	100	72	9	...	...	...
Mongolia [5]	86	65	74	12	26	2
Oceania
Papua N Guinea [4]	83 (b)	57 (b)	95(b)	30	43	6
Southeast Asia
Cambodia [4]	19	53	174	52	56	13
Indonesia [3]	59	64	75	34	42	13
Laos [4]	18	52	134	40	47	11
Malaysia [1]	94	71	13	20	...	...
Myanmar [3]	43	59	150	31	45	8
Philippines [4]	75	67	53	30	33	8
Thailand [4]	96	69	32	25	22	5
Viet Nam [4]	21	66	45	40	36	10
South Asia
Bangladesh [5]	43	57	115	56	55	18
India [4]	29	62	115	53	52	18
Nepal [4]	16	55	114	47	49	11
Pakistan [4]	56	63	137	40	50	9
Sri Lanka [4]	63	73	19	33	20	13
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
North America
Mexico [3]	72	71	32	14	23	6
Caribbean
Cuba [4]	66	76	10	...	...	1
Dominican Rep [4]	78	70	44	6	11	1
Haiti [5]	25	58	124	28	32	8
Jamaica [3]	89	74	13	10	10	4
Trinidad & Tobago [3]	79	72	18	7	5	4
Central America
Costa Rica [3]	84	77	16	5	6	2
El Salvador [3]	90	67	40	11	23	1
Guatemala [4]	83	66	67	27	50	3
Honduras [4]	74	69	38	25	39	1
Nicaragua [4]	35	68	60	12	25	2
Panama [4]	83	73	20	7	9	1
South America
Argentina [1]	68	73	27	2	5	1
Bolivia [4]	58	60	105	8	27	1
Brazil [3]	70	67	60	6	11	2
Chile [2]	...	74	15	1	2	0
Colombia [3]	85	70	36	8	15	1
Ecuador [3]	76	69	40	17(b)	34(b)	2(b)
Guyana [3]	88	...	...	18	...	...
Paraguay [3]	41	71	34	4	14	0
Peru [3]	72	67	55	8	26	1
Suriname [3]	...	...	...	...	...	...
Uruguay [2]	...	73	21	4	10	1
Venezuela [3]	58	72	24	5	15	3
NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Near East
Afghanistan [5]	8	45	257	49	48	16
Iran [3]	81	69	40	16	19	7
Iraq [3]	75	67	71	12	22	3
Jordan [3]	77	69	25	6	16	3
Kuwait [2]	…	75	14	2	3	1
Lebanon [1]	63	69	40	3	12	3
Saudi Arabia [2]	86(b)	71	34	...	...	...
Syria [1]	67	68	36	13	21	9
Turkey [1]	80	68	50	10	21	3
United Arab Em [1]	92	74	19	...	...	...
Yemen [5]	24	51	110	30	44	13
North Africa
Algeria [3]	91	68	61	13	18	9
Egypt [2]	88	65	51	12	25	6
Libya [1]	98	64	63	5	15	3
Morocco [3]	58	65	75	10	24	2
Tunisia [1]	80	69	37	9	23	4
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Central Africa
Cameroon [4]	50	57	106	15	26	3
Central African Rep [5]	27	50	165	23	28	6
Chad [5]	21	49	152	39	40	14
Congo, Dem R [5]	69	51	108	24	28	6
Congo, Rep [4]	18	52	185	34	45	10
Gabon [3]	...	55	148	...	...	...
East Africa
Burundi [5]	51	51	176	38	47	6
Eritrea [5]	13	52	195	44	38	16
Ethiopia [5]	19	49	195	48	64	8
Kenya [5]	77	55	90	23	34	8
Rwanda [5]	...	47	139	26	56	4
Somalia [5]	...	48	211	...	...	...
Sudan [3]	51	54	115	34	34	13
Tanzania [5]	86	52	160	31	43	7
Uganda [4]	57	44	185	26	38	5
Southern Africa
Angola [5]	40	48	292	…	…	…
Botswana [4]	55	66	52	...	...	...
Lesotho [4]	38	62	154	16	33	2
Madagascar [5]	40	58	164	40	48	7
Malawi [4]	3	45	219	30	48	7
Mauritius [2]	100	71	23	15	10	14
Mozambique [5]	54	47	275	26	36	8
Namibia [4]	62	60	78	26	29	9
Swaziland [3]	59	...	...	10(b)	30(b)	1(b)
Zambia [5]	71	48	203	24	42	4
Zimbabwe [5]	52	52	74	16	21	6
West Africa
Benin [3]	27	48	142	29	25	14
Burkina Faso [4]	37	47	164	33	33	13
C�te d'Ivoire [3]	39	50	150	24	24	8
Gambia [3]	37	46	110	15	14	6
Ghana [3]	55	57	130	27	26	11
Guinea [4]	31	46	219	...	...	...
Liberia [5]	30	56	216	...	33	9
Mali [4]	6	47	210	40	30	23
Mauritania [3]	32	53	195	23	44	7
Niger [5]	17	48	320	50	41	21
Nigeria [3]	41	51	191	39	39	21
Senegal [4]	39	50	110	22	23	7
Sierra Leone [5]	11	40	284	28	35	8
Togo [3]	41	56	128	25	22	12
NOTES: TABLE 2 Figure in brackets [ ] denotes prevalence category, i.e. proportion of the population undernourished in 1996-98. Category [1] <2.5% undernourished [2] 2.5-4% undernourished [3] 5-19% undernourished [4] 20-34% undernourished [5] = or > 35% undernourished … Data unavailable (a) Refers to results of national surveys conducted from 1987 - 1998 (b) Period other than the one specified in the column heading
SOURCES: TABLE 2 Health and sanitation UNICEF, The State of the Worlds Children, 1997 and 1999. Nutritional status of children under five Results of surveys compiled by WHO (Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition) and FAO (Nutridat)

ANNEX TABLE III

FOOD: WORLD PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION, TRADE AND STOCK CHANGES¹⁰

	PRODUCTION						UTILIZATION ^a												TRADE ^b						CHANGE IN STOCKS ^c
							TOTAL						FOOD
	1998	1999		2000 f'cast		1998/99		1999/2000		2000/01 f'cast		1998/99		1999/2000		2000/01 f'cast		1998/99		1999/2000		2000/01		1998/99		1999/2000		2000/01 f'cast
	( ………………………………………………………………………………million tonnes…………………………………………………………………………)
BY COMMODITY
Staples ^d	2060.20		2032.60		2052.60		2038.00		2054.90		2066.60		1054.90		1072.00		1079.40		224.20		233.50		229.70
Total Cereals ^e	1898.40		1869.80		1889.50		1876.20		1892.10		1903.50		964.90		981.40		988.70		215.60		224.80		221.00		14.60		-14.10		-10.10
Wheat	597.10		589.40		588.10		589.50		595.00		593.90		417.20		422.80		425.80		98.00		103.80		101.50		4.70		-6.90		-4.10
Rice (milled)	390.10		403.20		398.00		391.70		401.20		402.10		351.90		360.60		364.10		24.50		22.10		22.50		1.60		3.30		-3.80
Coarse Grains	911.20		877.20		903.40		895.00		895.90		907.50		195.80		198.00		198.80		93.10		98.90		97.00		8.50		-10.60		-2.20
Roots and Tubers ^f	161.80		162.80		163.10		161.80		162.80		163.10		90.00		90.60		90.70		8.60		8.70		8.70
Meat	223.00		227.20		230.00		223.00		227.20		230.00		223.00		227.20		230.00		15.10		15.80		15.80
Oils and Fats ^g/h	105.00		110.00		114.00		106.00		109.00		114.00								45.00		47.00		49.00		-1.50		1.00		.0.20
Milk ⁱ	555.00		560.00		571.00		555.00		560.00		571.00		458.00		462.00		472.00		35.00		36.00		37.00
STAPLES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Developed countries	903.70		889.30		908.20		784.40		789.70		797.50		185.60		186.20		187.33		59.30		64.40		61.30		5.90		-13.30		5.20
Developing countries	1156.50		1143.30		1144.40		1253.60		1265.20		1269.10		869.30		885.80		892.10		164.90		169.10		168.40		8.70		-0.80		-15.30
LIFDC	906.80		901.60		891.30		957.30		962.10		964.20		710.60		722.80		727.30		75.20		73.80		71.50		9.30		0.10		-13.70
LIFDC< ^j	372.80		369.60		373.80		427.10		430.60		430.10		314.60		321.20		322.60		66.50		63.90		61.40		14.10		1.20		-23.50
a. Utilization refers to the marketing year following production. For meat, milk, roots and tubers it is the calendar year of the first year shown. b. The trade year is a split year for wheat, coarse grains, oils and fats and a calendar year for the other commodities (first year shown). c. The change between opening and ending stocks during the crop season. d. Includes cereals, roots and tubers. e. Cereals include rice converted from paddy to milled basis.															f. In grain equivalent g. For oils and fats, the data refer to the split years 1997/98, 1998/99 and 1999/2000. h. Trade is defined as the sum of trade in oil and the oil equivalent of oilseeds. i. Trade is in milk equivalent. j. Excluding India and China.

______________________________________

1 Source: FAO

2 GDP equals GNP minus net receipts of primary income from non-resident sources.

3 See IMF (May 2000), World Economic Outlook

4 Source: Economic Intelligence Unit 2000, World Outlook 2000

5 Source : FAO

6 If the calculated value of the ratio is equal to 1, this indicates that the 5 major exporting countries would have completely exhausted their cereal inventories during the course of their marketing year.

7 The commodity list has been expanded to include edible oils, root crops (cassava, potatoes, etc.), skimmed milk powder, seeds for eligible crops, sugar, products which are part of the traditional diet of vulnerable groups or a component of supplementary feeding programmes, and micro-nutrients and fortified food products. These food items, in aggregate, will be limited to no more than 20 percent of any donor’s commitment, with individual commodities limited to 3-7 percent of the total donation, excluding transportation and other operating expenses. Overall, the total volume of commitments under the 1999 Convention is 4.895 million tonnes, in wheat equivalent, compared to 5.35 million tonnes under the 1995 Convention. The difference is accounted for by the pledge by the EU to provide 130 million ECU in cash, or about 588 000 tonnes, which includes transportation costs. At current prices and transportation costs, the food aid volume commitment under the new Convention is roughly equivalent to the previous one.

8 See CL 116/10, p. 5; CFS:99/2, p. 12.

9 See CFS:99/Inf. 6.

10 Source : FAO (totals computed from unrounded data)

COMMITTEE ON WORLD FOOD SECURITY

Twenty-sixth Session

Rome, 18-21 September 2000

ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

Table of Contents