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Simulating rising undernourishment during the COVID-19 pandemic economic downturn

Technical note











​Conti, V., Cafiero, C. & Sánchez, M.V. 2020. Simulating rising undernourishment during the COVID-19 pandemic economic downturn. Rome, FAO.



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    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast in January that the global economy would grow by 3.3 percent in 2020, however its latest outlook, in April, now forecasts a contraction of 3.0 percent, with no upside scenarios and numerous risks. The scenario presented in this brief predicts that if the anticipated global recession, due to the effects of COVID-19, were to trigger a reduction in the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) of between two and ten percentage points in all countries in 2020, then the number of undernourished people in net food-importing countries would increase by 14.4 million to 80.3 million, with the majority of the increase coming from low-income countries. Economic stimulus in all countries must be focused on keeping the food supply chains functioning, while also protecting access to locally-, regionally- and globally-produced food. Stimulus measures that tackle the current menace to food access should emphasize efforts to build resilience into food systems to safeguard them against future economic slowdowns and downturns.
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    The COVID-19 pandemic will have an unprecedented impact on global and regional trade. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), world merchandise trade in 2020 could fall by as much as 32 percent. The current situation is unlike any other food or health crisis in modern times, with simultaneous supply and demand shocks that are global in nature. Labour shortages due to curtailed mobility are affecting all aspects of the food and agriculture supply chains, from production, to processing and retailing, leading to both immediate and longer-term risks for food production and availability. At the same time, the significant scale of the economic recession, amid widespread job losses and reductions in income and remittances is raising serious concerns about hunger and malnutrition. The most vulnerable groups are already poor and food insecure, particularly in countries affected by multiple crises (extreme weather variability, the locust plague and plant and animal disease), which are seeing significant currency depreciation (notably commodity-dependent economies), and those affected by conflict, where supply chain distribution and logistics links are already fragile. All this has prompted many countries to take various measures to protect their populations from the crisis. Addressing policy barriers and physical constraints will also be crucial for importing countries, especially net food-importing developing countries, small island developing states and landlocked developing countries, to address domestic supply disruptions, improve food availability and stabilize local prices. Countries may also lack the necessary policy and regulatory frameworks to promote social inclusion and ensure that the benefits of trade reach all.
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    As a middle income country, Indonesia has made tremendous progress in terms of economic development and poverty reduction income growth has reached over 5 percent per year and the prevalence of undernourishment has drastically declined This pace of economic growth has brought with it inevitable changes, such as urbanization (the urban population increased from 49 8 percent in 2010 to 53 3 percent in 2015 and is projected to reach 60 percent in 2025 and dietary transitions (an increased consumption of processed foods with high salt, fat and sugar content), which continue to affect food security, nutrition and the availability of healthy diets Despite the economic growth and improved welfare, stunting in children under five years of age remains above 30 percent (the World Health Organization’s threshold for very high prevalence) and obesity rose by 75 percent between 1990 and 2013 As a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( and a signatory to the declaration by ASEAN Heads of Government to end all forms of malnutrition, Indonesia recognizes that nutrition is a multisectoral issue and requires a systemwide approach for greater political coherence Moreover, Indonesia can benefit from incorporating the lessons learned in other countries that have undergone a similar economic and dietary transition as it seeks to identify, prioritize and design policies and interventions that deliver transformative changes to support the country’s pursuit of SDG 2 ,,“End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture,” as well as the other SDGs An efficient food systems approach can contribute to ensuring the sufficient supply, good storage, and preservation of food, in addition to the reduction of food loss and waste It can also support the distribution of essential nutrients, especially those that are not consumed in adequate quantities, as opposed to only focusing on calories.

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