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Comparing crises: Great Lockdown versus Great Recession











​Schmidhuber, J. And Qiao, B. 2020. Comparing crises: Great Lockdown versus Great Recession. Rome, FAO. 




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    FAO and EU Food Facility. Ex-Post Economic Impact Assessment 2012
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    In 2007-2008, agriculture commodity prices skyrocketed worldwide. The 2009 financial crisis extended the global recession. As of 2012, prices continue to remain higher than at pre-crisis levels and trends are marked by volatility. These shocks have had both short- and long-term adverse affects on the earning capacity and prospects of the poor, especially net food buyers. The combined effect of the high food prices and the global financial crisis of 2009 have driven an estimated 105 million peopl e into hunger and malnutrition. Although the effects have been pronounced in urban areas, of the 1.1 billion people living in poverty, an estimated 70 percent reside in rural areas and depend on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods1. Many of these rural poor are smallholder farmers whose opportunities to benefit from higher food prices are constrained by a lack of access to inputs, such as improved and quality seeds, chemicals, fertilizers and adequate mechanization, as well as a ppropriate technical advice and access to markets. The European Union (EU) allocated EUR 1 billion for a food price crisis response facility to deliver emergency assistance in a manner that would provide immediate relief for those adversely affected by high food prices and improve the capacities of vulnerable rural people to: (i) increase agricultural productivity; (ii) generate more income; and (iii) secure livelihoods against future food price shocks. The idea was to support effective transiti ons between humanitarian action and development processes, focusing on programmes that would have both a rapid and lasting impact on food security.
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    FAO COVID-19 Response and Recovery Programme - Trade and food safety standards
    Facilitating and accelerating food and agricultural trade during COVID-19 and beyond
    2020
    The COVID-19 pandemic will have an unprecedented impact on global and regional trade. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), world merchandise trade in 2020 could fall by as much as 32 percent. The current situation is unlike any other food or health crisis in modern times, with simultaneous supply and demand shocks that are global in nature. Labour shortages due to curtailed mobility are affecting all aspects of the food and agriculture supply chains, from production, to processing and retailing, leading to both immediate and longer-term risks for food production and availability. At the same time, the significant scale of the economic recession, amid widespread job losses and reductions in income and remittances is raising serious concerns about hunger and malnutrition. The most vulnerable groups are already poor and food insecure, particularly in countries affected by multiple crises (extreme weather variability, the locust plague and plant and animal disease), which are seeing significant currency depreciation (notably commodity-dependent economies), and those affected by conflict, where supply chain distribution and logistics links are already fragile. All this has prompted many countries to take various measures to protect their populations from the crisis. Addressing policy barriers and physical constraints will also be crucial for importing countries, especially net food-importing developing countries, small island developing states and landlocked developing countries, to address domestic supply disruptions, improve food availability and stabilize local prices. Countries may also lack the necessary policy and regulatory frameworks to promote social inclusion and ensure that the benefits of trade reach all.
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    Book (series)
    Realigning policy interventions on agricultural prices
    Monitoring incentives in low- and middle-income countries during the first wave of COVID-19
    2022
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    COVID-19 has resulted in a shock to agrifood systems around the world, with the potential for low- and middle-income countries to be particularly affected. Although policy responses were more muted than during the 2007–2008 world food crisis, efforts to insulate from supply shocks and ensure local availability during COVID-19 have generally included export restrictions and import tariff reductions, among other responses. In an effort to enable rapid market monitoring and realignment, we develop a new indicator defined as a monthly nominal rate of protection “express” which seeks to isolate as much as possible the effect of trade and market policies on domestic prices in real-time in order to understand how they responded. This analysis examines changes to this indicator during the first wave of the pandemic in 27 low- and middle-income countries for the most-consumed staple cereals of the poor and food insecure. We show that agricultural price incentives declined by 12.6 percentage points compared to the same months in previous years, suggesting that retail domestic price spikes may have largely been mitigated or avoided. However, impacts varied across countries and commodities, and this indicator can serve as a tool for examining primary drivers of changes and conducting causal analysis to facilitate adequate agrifood policy responses to support economic recovery in the post-COVID-19 era.

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