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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #4, 11 May 2022

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends











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    Prices of all major cereals increased in February. Wheat and coarse grain prices were pressured upward by supply uncertainties amidst potential disruptions to exports from the Black Sea Region. Crop condition concerns in South America continued to lend support to maize prices. Although international rice prices also edged up during February, they remained below their year-earlier levels. In most of West Africa, prices of coarse grains continued to increase and were at near-record levels. In the Sahel, prices were underpinned by reduced outputs and conflicts, while in the coastal countries, they were supported by strong export demand and currency depreciation. Reduced cross-border trade flows and higher international prices, particularly of maize, added upward pressure on domestic prices. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in February and were generally well above their year-earlier levels across the subregion. Exceptionally high levels prevailed in South Sudan and the Sudan. In Far East Asia, in Sri Lanka, prices of rice and wheat flour continued to increase, reaching record levels in February due to further depreciation of the national currency. Expectations of a below-average main “Maha” crop added to the upward price pressure in the case of rice, while upward trends in international markets provided additional support to wheat prices.
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    International prices of grains increased overall again in May although they began to fall towards the end of the month on improved production prospects. International prices of rice held steady in May, with logistics problems and high shipping costs keeping trading activity subdued throughout the month. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains remained at near-record to record levels in the Sudan and South Sudan, underpinned by insufficient supplies and severe macro-economic difficulties, including currency weakness sustaining food inflation. Prices of maize grain in South Africa climbed moderately in May and remained up on a yearly basis, as the effects of higher prices on the international market have outweighed downward pressure from a substantial maize crop estimated for 2021. In South America, prices of yellow maize increased further in the key producing countries, Argentina and Brazil, remaining well above their year-earlier levels reflecting upward pressure from record export sales and adverse dry crop conditions, respectively. Markets in both countries were also supported by the strong upward trends in international price quotations.
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    International prices of wheat rose in October after declining during the past few months due to strong demand for exports and lower production prospects in key producing countries of the Southern Hemisphere. Prices of maize also increased, supported by reduced supplies in the United States of America and a pick-up in sales from Argentina and Ukraine. By contrast, slow demand and harvest pressure caused international rice prices to subside. In Southern Africa, tight supplies and currency weakness in several countries continued to support prices of the main food staple, maize, which remained at high levels across the subregion. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains in October were at levels well above those a year earlier in several countries of the subregion, mainly due to reduced harvests. In the Sudan and South Sudan, prices of coarse grains remained stable or declined slightly but were still high due to the difficult macroeconomic situation. In CIS Asia, prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan recorded atypical increases in October, after several months of relative stability, mainly underpinned by higher price quotations in the regional export market.

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