FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia

Crop forecasts updated for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan

New data and FAO forecasts for the leading crops in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are now available online.

Overview data and forecasts are regularly updated and published by FAO through its Global Information and Early Warning System. The purpose of the System is to monitor the food security situation at global, regional and national levels, issue reports on the world food situation, and provide early warning of impending food crises or possible threats to food security.

Cereal production declined sharply in Kyrgyzstan last year, where below-average rainfall during the growing season led to an 18 percent decrease in wheat, maize and barley yields. Tajikistan fared better, despite some irrigation shortages. Cereal production in 2014 remained largely steady near the five-year average for 2009-2013.

The Central Asia region experienced favorable weather during the winter cereal crop planting season, and early indications point to stable or increased production levels in 2015. But both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are heavily dependent on cereal imports, which are also forecasted to increase this year.

Wheat flour prices reached record or near-record levels in December due to currency depreciation in late 2014 as well as high domestic fuel and transport costs. The price of potatoes, another important staple in the regional diet, also increased in both countries. In Tajikistan, potato prices rose more than one third in just a year.

Households in both countries often feel the impact of fluctuations in crop yields and prices. Approximately 35 percent of each population lives below the poverty line, and families spend around 60 percent of their budget on food.

About the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System

Products of the System include the periodic publications and web resources including:  Crop Prospects and Food Situation, Global Food Prices Monitor, Food Prices Tool, Food Price Monitoring and Analysis.  

For countries facing a serious food emergency, FAO and the World Food Programme make on-the-ground assessments in what are called “Joint Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions.” The visiting team of experts reviews the situation, analyses possible implications for food supply and the impact on people. The aim is to provide timely and reliable information and recommendations that can be acted on by national governments, the international community and others.

To produce the Country briefs, FAO uses many sources of information – about weather and other natural conditions for agriculture, as well as domestic and international economic, social and political factors. Sources include meteorological centres, agencies operating satellites for earth observation, news services such as Reuters and Associated Press, information from international and national institutions, and various reports and studies. Questionnaires sent to various partners (FAO offices, government agencies, NGOs) are also utilized.

23 January 2015, Budapest, Hungary