New data and FAO forecasts for the leading crops in Turkey are now available online.

Overview data and forecasts are regularly updated and published by FAO through its Global Information and Early Warning System. The purpose of the System is to monitor the food security situation at global, regional and national levels, issue reports on the world food situation, and provide early warning of impending food crises or possible threats to food security.

Turkey’s winter crop prospects for 2015 appear favourable, thanks to heavy rainfall and mountain snowfall during the planting period in December. February’s relatively high temperatures are expected to revert back to cooler average temperatures, which will keep winter crops from breaking dormancy too early and ensure that the crop calendar stays on schedule.

High expectations for 2015 present a stark contrast to the impact of erratic weather in 2014. Drought and cold temperatures affected the national wheat crop and brought a 12 percent decrease in cereal production, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Wheat and barley in particular experienced a dramatic decline, with a 14 and 20 percent decrease in production, respectively.

Turkey’s cereal imports are forecast to reach 7.2 million tonnes in the 2014/2105 marketing year, a 23 percent increase over last year’s 5.8 million tonnes. Meanwhile, cereal exports are expected to fall to 2.8 million tonnes, some 25 percent below average. Turkey will maintain its position as one of the major exporters of wheat flour in the world, mostly exporting to neighbouring markets in Syria and Iraq. But rising security concerns in the region have precipitated increased transport costs and reduced exports.

The latest figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute indicate that the annual food inflation rate is 10.9 percent – below the May 2014 peak of 14.7 percent but still high enough to cause concern. In response to the trend, the Government of Turkey established a committee last December in order to evaluate national food and agricultural markets.

About the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System

To build a complete picture, the Global Information and Early Warning System consolidates periodic publications and web resources, including:  Crop Prospects and Food Situation, Global Food Prices Monitor, Food Prices Tool, and Food Price Monitoring and Analysis.

For countries facing a serious food emergency, FAO and the World Food Programme make on-the-ground assessments in what are called “Joint Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions.” The visiting team of experts review the situation, analyses possible implications for food supply and the impact on people. The aim is to provide timely and reliable information and recommendations that can be acted on by national governments, the international community and others.

To produce the Country Briefs, FAO uses many sources of information – about weather and other natural conditions for agriculture, as well as domestic and international economic, social and political factors. Sources include meteorological centres, agencies operating satellites for Earth observation, news services such as Reuters and Associated Press, information from international and national institutions, and various reports and studies. Questionnaires sent to various partners (FAO offices, government agencies, NGOs) are also utilized.

13 February 2015, Ankara, Turkey