Family Farming Knowledge Platform

Cotton production areas are at high risk of invasion by Amrasca biguttula (Ishida) (Cicadellidae: Hemiptera): potential distribution under climate change

The cotton jassid, Amrasca biguttula, a dangerous and polyphagous pest, has recently invaded the Middle East, Africa and South America, raising concerns about the future of cotton and other food crops including okra, eggplant and potato. However, its potential distribution remains largely unknown, posing a challenge in developing effective phytosanitary strategies. We used an ensemble model of six machine-learning algorithms including random forest, maxent, support vector machines, classification and regression tree, generalized linear model and boosted regression trees to forecast the potential distribution of A. biguttula in the present and future using presence records of the pest and bioclimatic predictors. The accuracy of these algorithms was assessed based on the area under the curve (AUC), correlation (COR), deviance and true skill statistic (TSS).

Title of publication: Pest Management Science
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Author: Abdelmutalab AG Azrag
Other authors: Saliou Niassy, Adin Y Bloukounon-Goubalan, Elfatih M Abdel-Rahman, Henri EZ Tonnang, Samira A Mohamed
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Year: 2025
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Geographical coverage: Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Near East and North Africa
Type: Article
Content language: English
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