本版《粮食及农业状况 2015》指出，当社 会保护措施与更广义的农业及农村发展 措施相互结合时，它将有助于打破农村贫 困和脆弱性的恶性循环

全球约有44%至57%的温室气体（GHGs）排放来自粮食系统，其中农业和由农业造成的森林砍伐占到了26%到33%，这让农业成了造成气候变化的主要因素。化肥是这些危险气体的主要来源。中国是世界上化肥使用量最多的国家，约占目前全球化肥使用总量的三分之一，其中大多数是以煤为原料的氮肥。在中国，普通农民平均每公顷土地施用化肥超过600千克。在巴西和美国，化肥的使用也是一个日益严重的问题，但中国的平均化肥施用量却是巴西平均值的三倍还多，几乎达到美国的五倍。此外，中国农民给小麦和水稻作物施的化肥仅三分之一被植株吸收，其余都进入了河流和大气之中。

大力发展的中国农业发展不仅为城市居民提供了充足的粮食，而且帮助成千上百万的农村人口脱离了贫困。但这也同时造成了很大的环境问题。在一些本应该是鱼米之乡的丰沃地区，生态系统已经被严重破坏，有些地区的生态系统甚至已经到退化到了无法恢复的程度。由英国和中国的科学家共同组成的研究团队最新的研究成果表明，农业产量的提高是长期以牺牲环境为代价的。在东部的一些省份，如安徽，江苏和上海，粮食和渔业的产量在过去的60年内都有显著的提高。但是这些产量的提高同时伴随着一系列的环境问题， 比如水污染， 空气污染以及水土流失。也许有些人会说这未必是个多么严重的问题。毕竟，粮食产量的提高是使中国几亿的农村人脱离贫困的一个主要因素。与这些相比，自然环境在一定程度上的恶化也许算不了什么。

粮食生产与气候条件保持着高度的因果联系。今后20 年至50 年间农业生产将受到气候变化的严重冲击，进而严重影响全球的粮食安全。总体而言，气候变化对农业生产的影响，既有负面的，也有正面的。当前负面的影响大于正面影响，需要相应的应对措施。

“生态农业提供了双赢的解决方案，既提高了生产力，又提升恢复力，还能更有效地利用自然资源”，联 合国粮农组织总干事何塞·格拉齐亚诺·达席尔瓦在 2014 年于罗马主办的“生态农业与粮食和营养安全” 国际研讨会上表示。本次曼谷的多方政策磋商会旨在进一步深化罗马会议上对相关问题的讨论。 来自亚太地区二十多个国家的公共部门、学术界、农户以及民间组织的代表们出席了本次研讨会。经过协 商，与会代表提出了一揽子建议以进一步推进本地区的生态农业发展。下面，我们将重点介绍磋商过程中 形成的最具代表性的建议。

本文陈述了联合国粮食及农业组织也全球农村咨询服务论坛关于农技推广今天站在何处及今后将需要走向何处的立场。本文所述的研究结果的意图是在考虑农业科研促进发展的前途时，改进对推广的定位。本文写入了从倡议的一些利益相者以及其他方面得到的反馈意见，也写入了一些案例的研究概况。 陈述这些案例，是为了阐述如今多元化推广系统特点的经验与途， 也是为了提高人们对推广为持续农村发展和减贫作出贡献贡的多种方式的认识。

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