HIGHLIGHTS

Food commodity markets are set to be more balanced in 2013/14, in particular cereals. The global food import bill is forecast to reach USD 1.09 trillion in 2013, 13 percent below the record of 2011 but close to the 2012 estimate, as higher bills for fish and livestock products are anticipated to offset lower expenditures on most other commodities, especially sugar.

WHEAT

Record world wheat production in 2013 will boost supplies and help increase inventories. With world trade contracting in 2013/14 on lower import demand by several countries, due to their higher domestic production, global wheat markets are likely to experience more stable conditions under generally lower prices.

COARSE GRAINS

World production of coarse grains is set to rebound strongly in 2013. While the overall utilization is also projected to increase, total supply would exceed demand, helping in replenishing the heavily depleted stocks and resulting in a more comfortable world supply and demand balance than witnessed in recent years.

RICE

International rice prices were generally stable in the first five months of 2013. The market attention is now focusing on future decisions regarding releases from public stocks in Thailand and on India’s availabilities for export. The pace of China’s imports is also becoming critical.

OILSEEDS

Expectations of a marked rebound in global oilseed output for 2012/13, combined with a slowing consumption growth, have led to a softening in world prices. Positive early production forecasts for 2013/14 suggest a more balanced world supply and demand situation and thus a general easing of prices.

SUGAR

World sugar production is estimated to reach a new record in 2012/13 – one that will be more than sufficient to cover projected global consumption. On the other hand, world sugar trade is anticipated to contract reflecting expectations of falling import demand from the traditional importing countries.

MEAT

World meat production is anticipated to grow by only 1.4 percent in 2013, to 308.2 million tonnes. Meat prices remain at historically high levels which, as of May, have not shown signs of decreasing in spite of reduced feed costs.

DAIRY

International prices of dairy products have risen in the face of limited export supplies. Milk production continues to increase steadily in 2013 in many countries, especially in Asia, but growth in the main exporting countries is anticipated to be limited.

FISHERIES

Tight supply and higher feed costs for several key traded species such as salmon and shrimp are pushing international seafood prices higher. Overall supply is still growing thanks to aquaculture, with strong local and regional demand sustaining production growth in the developing countries.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Quinoa

The special feature on Quinoa examines the fundamentals of this ancient Andean commodity with the potential for becoming a new important food crop. The growing global demand and booming exports from Bolivia and Peru have benefitted the smallholder producers, but also pose new challenges as market dynamics change.

Commodity Hedge Funds in Retreat?

The special feature “Commodity hedge funds in retreat?”, examines the declining performance of this sector following multiple years of profitability. It reviews the factors that helped propel the growth of commodity hedge funds against those surrounding today’s trading environment.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

ISSN: 1560-8182 (PDF)

E-ISBN: 978-92-5-107792-4 (MOBI)

© FAO 2013

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Trade and Markets Division. The report is prepared under the overall guidance of David Hallam, Director; Boubaker BenBelhassen, Principal Officer; Concepcion Calpe, Senior Economist; and Abdolreza Abbassian, Senior Economist and Food Outlook Team Leader. It is written by a team of economists, whose names and email contacts appear under their respective market summary contributions. The report benefited from research support by many staff, namely, David Bedford, Claudio Cerquiglini, Julie Claro, Berardina Forzinetti, Grace Karumathy, David Mancini, Patrizia Mascianá, Marco Milo, Fiorella Picchioni, Barbara Senfter and the fisheries statistical team.

Special thanks go to Rita Ashton for compiling the report and overall administrative support, as well as to Claudio Cerquiglini, for preparing the charts and statistical tables. Additionally, the team is grateful to Nancy Hart for her editorial assistance.

CONTENTS

MARKET SUMMARIES

MARKET ASSESSMENTS

Wheat

Coarse grains

Rice

Oilseeds, oils and meals

Sugar

Meat and meat products

Milk and milk products

Fish and fishery products

SPECIAL FEATURES

Quinoa

Commodity hedge funds in retreat

MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

Grains

Rice

Oilseeds

Sugar

Meat

Dairy

STATISTICAL TABLES

MARKET INDICATORS

Investment flows

Ocean freight rates

Food import bills

The FAO price indices

Other market indicators

CEREALS

Latest indications point to a more comfortable world cereal supply-and-demand balance in the new 2013/14 marketing season. After a relatively tight situation in 2012/13, characterized by reduced grain supplies and high prices, good production prospects and a likely replenishment in world stocks could pave the way for calmer markets and some easing of prices in the new season.

World cereal production in 2013, including rice on a milled basis, is forecast to reach a record 2 460 million tonnes. This is up 6.5 percent from the previous year’s reduced level, mainly due to higher wheat output and a sharp expected rebound of maize production in the United States. Rice production is also set to increase in 2013, although concerns over diminishing prices may dampen growth.

Global cereal utilization is forecast to reach 2 402 million tonnes in 2013/14, 3 percent above 2012/13. Much of the growth would stem from higher use of maize for feed and industrial purposes in the United States. Total feed use of coarse grains is forecast to be greater in developing than developed countries for the second consecutive season. The increase in utilization of wheat and rice would be broadly in line with the population growth, a factor that would keep average per capita consumption of cereals stable at around 153 kg per year.

Based on current supply and demand prospects, by the end of seasons in 2014, world cereal inventories could register an 11 percent recovery to 569 million tonnes, the highest level in twelve years. The buildup of stocks is forecast to affect all the major cereals, with coarse grains increasing the most. The projected recovery in world inventories would lead to higher 2014 stock-to-use ratios, especially for maize.

World trade in cereals is forecast to reach 306 million tonnes in 2013/14, similar to 2012/13. A reduction in wheat trade is expected to offset a rebound in maize while rice trade in 2014 is forecast to change little.

[1]Rice in milled equivalent.

[2]Trade refers to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat and coarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice.

[3]Low-income Food-Deficit countries.

Contact:

Abdolreza.Abbassian@fao.org

Paul.Racionzer@fao.org

WHEAT

FAO’s latest wheat production forecast for 2013 has been raised by 7 million tonnes since May, to a new record level of 702 million tonnes. At this level, world production of wheat would be 6.5 percent higher than the reduced harvest in 2012. The bulk of the recovery is forecast to be concentrated in some of the major producing countries that harvested poor crops in 2012, in particular in Europe and the Black Sea region. The anticipated higher production is a welcome development, especially as the 2012/13 run-down took global inventories to their lowest level since 2009. FAO’s first forecast for global stocks at the end of the seasons in 2014 points to a strong rebound from the reduced opening levels which, given the current expectations regarding global utilization in 2013/14, would result in a higher world stock-to-use ratio. The largest increases in world inventories are forecast for China, which is heading towards another record crop, and for the EU and the Russian Federation. Although total wheat utilization is forecast to resume its growth after a decline in 2012/13, the increase would only concern wheat consumption as food, since feed utilization, which rose sharply in 2011/12 as a result of very tight supplies and high prices of coarse grains, is likely to remain close to the 2012/13 level. FAO’s first forecast for world wheat trade in 2013/14 points to a reduction of 2.5 percent from 2012/13. This contraction mainly reflects reduced imports by countries expecting improved supplies in 2013/14, which include some traditional exporting countries, such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Based on this preliminary supply and demand assessment for 2013/14 and barring any major unexpected developments, especially with regard to production, global markets are likely to face more stable conditions, with prices retreating from the highs seen during the 2012/13 marketing season.

[1]Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.

[2]Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States.

[3]Derived from the International Grains Council (IGC) wheat index.

Contact:

Abdolreza.Abbassian@fao.org

Paul.Racionzer@fao.org

COARSE GRAINS

At 1 259 million tonnes, world production of coarse grains is forecast to reach a record in 2013 on the back of a strong rebound in maize production in the United States from its 2012 drought-reduced level. A number of other major producers are also expected to harvest bigger crops this year, most notably China, where maize production could hit a record for the fourth consecutive season. The projected recovery in world production of coarse grains in general, and of maize in particular, would lead to a rebuilding in global inventories to their highest level since 2000. The recovery is expected to be pronounced and, hence, result in a rise of the world stock-to-use ratio from the historic low of 14.2 percent in 2012/13 to 17.1 percent in 2013/14. Again, the bulk of this anticipated improvement in global supply and demand balance in 2013/14 assumes current positive production prospects for maize in the Unites States materialize. The recovery in the United States is also seen as the main driver behind renewed growth in the industrial use of coarse grains in 2013/14 after a decline in the 2012/13 season. In addition, feed utilization is projected to exhibit a strong increase in 2013/14, in both developed and developing countries, supported by more ample supplies and the likelihood of lower prices. Against the background of rising export availabilities and increased world demand, world trade in 2013/14 is forecast to expand by 3 percent, with maize exports reaching 103 million tonnes, a new record.

[1]Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.

[2]Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, EU, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States.

Contact:

Abdolreza.Abbassian@fao.org

Paul.Racionzer@fao.org

RICE

International rice prices have been stable since January, but still averaged higher in the first five months than in the corresponding period in 2012. However, prices have followed different directions, depending on the type of rice and its origin. World rice production is forecast to expand by 1.9 percent in 2013, reaching close to 500 million tonnes (in milled rice equivalent), on expectations of improved weather conditions in Asia. Low returns are encouraging farmers to cut plantings, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, North America and the EU, a tendency likely to dampen production growth. Weakening import demand is behind expectations of a 2.8 percent contraction in international rice trade in 2013. Among exporters, India is anticipated to cut shipments most, but will nonetheless remain the leading rice exporter again this year. Much of India’s export shortfall is anticipated to be filled by Viet Nam, but also by Egypt, Pakistan, Myanmar and the United States. Thailand is anticipated to keep sales abroad at about the same level as last year, thus falling well short of the 2011 record performance. On the import side, reduced purchases by Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines and Thailand are behind the expected decline in trade. China’s imports, on the other hand, are anticipated to remain close to the highs witnessed last year, reflecting a wide differential between domestic and international prices.

[1]Calendar year exports (second year shown).

[2]Major exporters include India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.

Contact:

Concepcion.Calpe@fao.org

Shirley.Mustafa@fao.org

OILSEEDS

Even if crops suffered from unfavourable weather in several countries, a marked rebound in global oilseed output is forecast for 2012/13. While current crop estimates should allow a conspicuous year-on-year rise in meal output, oil production growth is likely to remain below trend. Global supplies are expected to grow at a slower pace than production, due to low stock levels at the beginning of the season.

Subdued global economic growth is likely to slow demand for oils and meals in 2012/13. Oils/fats consumption could also be affected by weaker demand from the biodiesel sector, whereas persistently high meal prices are expected to result in an unusual contraction in global meal/cake utilization. End-of-season stocks of oilseeds and derived products are anticipated to increase, both in absolute terms and relative to consumption. Nonetheless, stock-to-use ratios are likely to remain low compared to previous years, in particular for meals.

International trade in oilseeds and sub-products is forecast to decline, especially in meals/cakes, mirroring weak growth in domestic consumption in some of the worlds major importing countries. As for meals, near-record prices have lowered appetite for imported material.

In general, international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals have softened since the start of this season, amid improved production prospects and weak consumption growth. The decrease has been less marked for meals, whose values remained close to all-time highs reflecting the market’s concerns about persistent supply tightness during the first half of the season. During the second half, prices in the oilseed complex could ease further as South America’s record harvests enter the market and provided the positive forecasts for next season’s Northern Hemisphere crops are confirmed. Combined with continued weak consumption growth, the production gains anticipated for next season should permit global stocks levels and stock-to-use ratios to rise further in 2013/14, especially in the meals/cakes subsector, thus suggesting a further general relaxation of prices.

NOTE: Refer to table 9 for explanations regarding definitions and coverage.

Contact:

Peter.Thoenes@fao.org

SUGAR

World sugar production in 2012/13 is set to increase by 4.8 million tonnes, or 2.8 percent, to 180 million tonnes. For the second consecutive season, production is anticipated to surpass consumption, with the surplus expected to hover around 6.5 million tonnes, contributing to a rebuilding of sugar stocks to relatively comfortable levels. The growth in world output is mainly attributed to an upturn in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, where sugar production is set to recover from the sharp fall of the previous season. The expansions in Brazil, but also in the United States, Australia and China, are anticipated to offset declines in India, the EU and Thailand. World sugar consumption is forecast to grow by about 2 percent in 2012/13, amid falling domestic sugar prices. World sugar trade is anticipated to contract in 2012/13, reflecting expectations of lukewarm import demand from the traditional importing countries, which are holding large supplies.

* As measured by the International Sugar Agreement (ISA)

Contact:

Elmamoun.Amrouk@fao.org

MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS

World meat production is anticipated to grow modestly in 2013, when it is forecast to reach 308.2 million tonnes, an increase of 4.3 million tonnes or 1.4 percent compared to 2012. In many countries, producers continue to struggle against elevated feed prices; however, although remaining high by historical standards, they began to fall during the second half of 2012 and continued to diminish during 2013. This has offered greater scope for profitable meat production, particularly in the pig and poultry sectors, which are the most dependent on concentrated feed. Meat production is anticipated to grow most vigorously in the developing countries, which are the main centres of demand expansion.

Meat prices have remained at historically high levels since the early part of 2011. The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 179 in May 2013, having moved within the narrow band of 177–179 since October 2012. Export reference prices for the different types of meat have followed varying directions so far this year, rising marginally for poultry and pork, remaining largely stable for beef and falling for ovine meat.

Meat trade is expected to grow more slowly in 2013 than in recent years, as a result of adequate national supplies in a number of importing countries and a reduction in production among some of the major exporters. Global meat exports are anticipated to reach 30.2 million tonnes in 2013, an increase of 1.1 percent over 2012.

Contact:

Michael.Griffin@fao.org

MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS

International dairy products prices registered strong growth during the first four months of 2013, particularly in March and April. Although prices fell back in May, they remained at elevated levels, substantially above a year earlier. The main cause of the leap in prices was a steep fall-off in New Zealand’s milk production. The FAO Dairy Price Index reached 259 points in April, close to its historic peak in late 2007, before dropping to 250 points in May. The absence of substantial growth in milk output in the principal exporting countries implies that supplies to the international market will be finely balanced until at least the latter part of 2013, indicating that the current elevated prices are likely to remain for some months.

World milk production in 2013 is forecast to grow by 2.2 percent to 784 million tonnes – a similar rate to recent years. Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to account for most of the increase, with only limited growth elsewhere.

World trade in dairy products is expected to expand in 2013; however, supply limitations are anticipated to stem growth. Consequently, trade is forecast to increase by 1.9 percent, compared with an average of 7 percent in recent years, to reach 54.7 million tonnes of milk equivalent. Asia will remain the main market for dairy products, accounting for some 54 percent of world imports, followed by Africa, with 16 percent.

Contact:

Michael.Griffin@fao.org

FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS

Buoyant demand in developing countries has driven world aquaculture production to new heights, yet, at the same time, consumption has slackened in many traditional developed country markets. Capture fisheries have registered a small rebound after the 2012 downturn related to the El Niño. As a result, global production is expected to reach another record level in 2013, topping 160 million tonnes for the first time. Fish for direct human consumption will also increase significantly during 2013 as a smaller share of captures is destined for fish meal production. On a per capita basis, overall fish consumption is approaching 20 kg, with aquaculture contributing close to half.

World trade continues to grow, thanks to strong demand from emerging markets, with both volumes and values progressing in 2013. Prices on a number of farmed species, including salmon, shrimp and selected bivalves, have risen sharply, due to supply problems and higher feed costs. Some capture fisheries species, including tuna, have also registered sharp increases. As a result, the Fish Price Index has risen to the record levels witnessed during the summer of 2011. In the coming months, supply constraints for several important species are likely to keep world fish prices on the rise.

[1]Data source: Norwegian Seafood Council

Contact:

Audun.Lem@fao.org

WHEAT

PRICES

Good crop prospects for 2013 put downward pressure on prices

Compared with the first half of the current marketing season, international wheat prices were generally weaker during its second half, which began in January 2013. A poor harvest in Argentina and concerns over winter wheat conditions in the United States plus a strong increase in the use of wheat for feed (as a result of the tightness in maize) provided some support. However, favourable prospects for 2013 harvests, especially in the Black Sea, slower trade activity and large supplies of old crop (2012 production) in non-traditional exporting countries, such as in India, continued to put pressure on prices. The benchmark United States wheat, No.2 Hard Red Winter, f.o.b. Gulf, averaged USD 329 per tonne in May, some 5 percent below its level at the start of the year but still almost 18 percent higher than in May 2012.

Wheat futures also weakened during the second half of the season. Although less than ideal weather conditions in Australia, parts of Europe and the United States were supportive, the US quotations were depressed by the continued slow pace of exports, weakness in maize prices and the forecasts for a large increase in world wheat production in 2013. In May 2013, wheat futures in Chicago for September delivery averaged USD 260 per tonne, down 11 percent from the beginning of 2013, but ten percent higher than the corresponding period last year.

PRODUCTION

Global wheat output could reach record high in 2013

Based on indications as of late May, FAO’s forecast for global wheat production in 2013 has been raised to a new record level of 702 million tonnes, 6.5 percent up from last year’s reduced harvest. Increased plantings for the 2013 crop, in response to strong prices, are largely behind the expected growth, although a recovery of yields in some areas affected by drought last year is also contributing to the positive outlook. The upward adjustment in the past month largely reflects increased forecasts for the EU and China, but also for several smaller wheat producing nations.

In North America, latest indications for wheat production in the United States confirm the possibility of a sharp decline in output this year. Although winter wheat plantings for 2013 were estimated marginally up from last year, the rate of abandonment is expected to be above normal, reflecting the impact of drought. As a result, the harvested area of winter wheat is forecast to drop by about 4 percent compared with 2012, with yields also expected to be below average in areas where drought persists. Regarding spring wheat, farmers’ intentions pointed to increased plantings, but the slow pace of fieldwork as of late May raises some doubt over the final planted area. Based on latest indications, the country’s total wheat production in 2013 is forecast at 56 million tonnes, some 9 percent down from 2012. In Canada, the main spring wheat crop planting was underway as of April and, based on an official survey, the area is expected to increase sharply by some 12 percent, largely at the expense of canola, the major oilseed crop.

In Europe, the 2013 spring growing period got off to a slow start in northern and central areas where temperatures have been below the long-term average, with consequent delays in winter crop development and spring planting. Although it is still too early to judge the impact of the adverse weather, it likely precludes anything better than average yields in the affected areas. In the EU, the aggregate wheat area is estimated some 2 percent higher than last year and, assuming yields are average, output is forecast to increase by about 6 percent, to 139 million tonnes. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat plantings were down from the previous year due to dry weather but winter survival rates are estimated above normal after generally favourable winter conditions. The spring wheat area is expected to increase in response to high price prospects but the prolonged winter weather in many parts could impact on the final area sown. In the main producing southern regions, above-normal temperatures and reduced precipitation in recent weeks have raised concern over yield prospects for winter crops and could impact spring sowing in these areas. At this stage, assuming conditions return to normal for the remainder of the season, aggregate wheat output is forecast to recover sharply from last year’s drought-reduced level to about 55 million tonnes. In Ukraine, the winter wheat conditions are also reported to be generally good, and spring planting is progressing well. Wheat output in 2013 is forecast to recover from the previous year’s reduced level to 20 million tonnes.

[1]Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.

[2]Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States.

[3]Derived from the International Grains Council (IGC) wheat index.

[*]Countries listed according to their position in global production (average 2011-2013)

In Asia, where harvesting of the 2013 wheat crops in the Far East subregion is already underway or due to start soon, prospects are mostly good in the main producing countries following generally favourable weather. In China, the latest official forecast points to a wheat crop of 121.8 million tonnes, surpassing by 1 percent last year’s record. Apart from satisfactory weather, the good outcome is attributable to subsidized inputs, including high-quality seeds, fertilizers and fuel. In India, the official forecast for 2013 wheat production has been raised to 93.6 million tonnes, a good harvest, although down by 1.4 percent from last year’s high. In Pakistan, a record 2013 harvest is expected – officially forecast at 26.3 million tonnes, it will be some 10 percent above the 2012 reduced harvest.

In the Asian CIS subregion, Kazakhstan is the major wheat producer and the bulk of its crop is spring sown from April to May. Plantings are forecast at about 13 million hectares, slightly down from 2012, but a return to normal yields after last year’s reduced levels is expected to lift production back up, to some 14 million tonnes.

In North Africa, weather conditions remain favourable for harvesting the 2013 winter wheat. In Egypt, the 2013 wheat crop is officially forecast at a record 9.4 million tonnes. In Algeria and Tunisia, outputs are forecast to be similar to last year’s satisfactory levels while, in Morocco, wheat production is set to recover sharply to 6.5 million tonnes, after a reduction in the previous year due to adverse weather.

In the Southern Hemisphere, winter wheat sowing is underway in Australia. Early indications point to about a 4 percent increase in plantings in response to attractive prices. Assuming average yields, this could lift output to 24 million tonnes. However, as of mid-May, soil moisture was still lacking in many parts of the eastern grain belt. Without good rains in the coming weeks, this would impact the final area sown. In Argentina, early indications for the 2013 wheat crop, to be planted from June, suggest an increase of area from last year’s sharply reduced level to about 3.5 million hectares. Assuming normal weather conditions and a recovery in yields from last year, production is tentatively forecast to increase to 11 million tonnes. In Brazil, where planting of the 2013 crop was underway as of May, output is officially forecast to increase by about 25 percent from last year’s poor level to 5.5 million tonnes, remaining still below average. Planted area is expected to increase only marginally, while yields are seen to recover by almost 18 percent from the low levels of 2012.

TRADE

Wheat trade to decline in 2013/14 for the second consecutive season

FAO’s first forecast for world wheat trade in 2013/14 (July/June) is put at 136 million tonnes, 3.5 million tonnes less than the latest estimate for 2012/13 and almost 11 million tonnes, or 7 percent, below the all-time high of 146.8 million tonnes registered in 2011/12. The anticipated decline in world trade is mainly attributable to projected lower import demand by several countries in Asia and Europe, mostly due to higher domestic production.

In Asia, aggregate imports in 2013/14 are forecast at 63.2 million tonnes, down 1.6 million tonnes from 2012/13. Smaller purchases are foreseen for the Islamic Republic of Iran, which had doubled imports in 2012/13 to replenish stocks. As a result, the country is estimated to import only 1.5 million tonnes in 2012/13, down from 4.7 million tonnes in 2012/13. Feed wheat imports by the Republic of Korea are expected to decline by at least 400 000 tonnes as larger maize supplies in the new season may encourage a switch to maize instead. By contrast, larger purchases are forecast for Saudi Arabia, given the falling trend in domestic production associated with the gradual phasing out of subsidies to domestic producers. In China, in spite of the projected record wheat crop this year, imports of high quality wheat could increase by around 500 000 tonnes should prices remain favourable. China surprised the market in April when it purchased almost 1 million tonnes of soft red winter wheat from the United States. This came after a sharp price decline in international markets, which put the US prices below the domestic prices of China’s Juangsu red wheat.

In Europe, total imports in 2013/14 are projected to reach 10 million tonnes, down more than 2 million tonnes from the estimated imports in 2012/13. Most of this decline is expected in the Russian Federation where this year’s anticipated recovery in production could result in a decline of 2 million tonnes in imports. While still a net exporter in the 2012/13 marketing season, in April the country suspended its 5 percent import duty on wheat until July 2013 to check rising domestic prices. Wheat imports by Ukraine, another net-exporting country, are also forecast to decline sharply, by at least 800 000 tonnes, given the current prospects for a strong rebound in domestic production. By contrast, wheat imports by the EU are expected to increase by 500 000 in the new season despite the projected increase in production. Larger imports may be required by the UK, where crops have been negatively affected by prolonged cold and wet weather conditions.

In Africa, aggregate wheat imports in 2013/14 could increase slightly from the current season’s reduced level. In North Africa, wheat purchases by Morocco are set to decrease by 900 000 tonnes because of the anticipated recovery in domestic production. Lower imports are also forecast for Algeria. However, in Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, they may increase to 9 million tonnes on growing demand. Most countries in the sub-Saharan region are forecast to import as much as in the current season. Only Kenya may buy significantly more wheat in 2013/14, due to rising demand.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, total imports in 2013/14 are forecast to change little with most countries keeping their imports at about 2012/13 levels. Wheat imports by Brazil, the world’s second largest wheat importer after Egypt, are forecast at 7.5 million tonnes, unchanged from the estimated purchases in the current season, during which, in April, Brazil doubled the non-Mercosur import quota (to 2 million tonnes) and waived the 10 percent tariff until July 2013. This was intended to facilitate imports from non-traditional suppliers so as to offset reduced exports from Argentina, which had harvested a poor crop in 2012/13.

Regarding exports, the expected recovery in wheat production could boost shipments from the Russian Federation and Ukraine in the new season. Slightly higher exports are also forecast for Canada, but sales from a number of other major exporters are expected to decline, in particular from Argentina, Australia and the United States due to reduced crops, and from the EU, largely on assumption of rising competition with Black Sea-origin wheat and shrinking demand in world wheat markets in 2013/14. Among the non-traditional exporters, shipments from India could remain at the same level as in 2012/13 (7 million tonnes), given the large surplus generated by consecutive years of bumper crops.

UTILIZATION

Modest growth in world wheat utilization projected for 2013/14

Following a small decline in 2012/13, total wheat utilization in 2013/14 is forecast to increase to 694 million tonnes, 1 percent higher than 2012/13 but still about 1 percent below the 10-year trend.

Strong demand for feed lifted world wheat utilization to a record high of 697 million tonnes in 2011/12. The sudden increase in the feed use of wheat in 2011/12 was driven by very tight supply and high prices of maize and barley. While supplies of coarse grains have been short again in 2012/13, and their prices also very high, feed wheat use is not expected to increase as much as it did in 2011/12 largely because of the overall difficult macro-economic conditions. These very same conditions are expected to weigh on feed demand in 2013/14.

Total feed use in 2013/14 is projected at nearly 134 million tonnes, well below the peak of 147 million tonnes registered in 2011/12 and up slightly from 2012/13. Contrary to the situation in 2012/13, the EU, the largest user of wheat for animal feed, is anticipated to account for much of the world increase in wheat feed use in 2013/14. By contrast, feed use of wheat in the United States is forecast to decline sharply from the peak registered this season, provided the expected strong recovery in domestic maize supply in 2013/14 is confirmed.

World utilization of wheat in 2013/14 for direct human consumption is expected to reach 480 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent from 2012/13. At this level, world wheat consumption, on a per capita basis, would be steady at around 67.00 kg per annum. Per capita wheat consumption is expected to remain at around 60 kg in the developing countries and at 96 kg in the developed countries.

STOCKS

Higher production pushing up world inventories in 2013/14

Based on the latest production forecasts for 2013 and the projected utilization in 2013/14, FAO’s first forecast for world wheat stocks by the close of crop seasons in 2014 stands at around 173 million tonnes, representing a 5 percent, or 8.4 million tonnes, rebound from their opening levels. The bulk of this increase is projected for China (+3.9 million tonnes), the EU (+3.5 million tonnes) and the Russian Federation (+ 3.2 million tonnes), more than offsetting possible declines in a few countries, most notably, Egypt (- 600 000 tonnes), Ukraine (-800 000 tonnes) and the United States (-1.6 million tonnes). In India, inventories are again likely to be above normal levels given the consecutive years of bumper crops.

At the current forecast levels, the world wheat stocks-to-use ratio in 2013/14 would reach 24.6 percent, up from 23.5 percent in 2012/13 and well above the historical low of 19.9 percent registered in 2007/08. Furthermore, the ratio of major wheat exporters’ closing stocks to their total disappearance (defined as domestic utilization plus exports) is set to increase from 14.2 percent in 2012/13 to 15.5 percent in 2013/14. This ratio would be 2.6 percentage points higher than in 2007/08 when international prices surged on growing supply concerns. Given the importance of wheat as a food staple, the increase in these ratios is a positive development for global food security.

COARSE GRAINS

PRICES

Expectation of improved supplies in 2013/14 weighs on prices

Tight supplies, mainly due to drought-reduced 2012 maize crops in the United States, continued to underpin prices of major coarse grains throughout the 2012/13 season. International prices moved higher in the early months of 2013, influenced also by currency movements and faster pace in exports. However, prices weakened slightly in recent months with newly harvested crops from South America reaching world markets and the expectation of a very strong recovery in production in the United States.

The benchmark US maize prices (yellow, No. 2, f.o.b.) averaged USD 295 per tonne in May, down 11 percent from the start of the season in July 2012 but still 10 percent above May last year. Export prices of sorghum (Argentina and the United States origins) closely followed maize although, in recent weeks, Australian sorghum prices rose sharply on supply concerns. Barley prices, especially Black Sea quotations, were underpinned by strong international demand earlier in the year, while unfavourable conditions for spring plantings in Europe were also supportive. Barley values (feed barley) weakened as crop conditions improved and trade activity slowed down.

Good prospects for a strong recovery in coarse grains production in general, and maize in particular, have put downward pressure on prices in the futures markets. In May, the Chicago maize futures for December delivery averaged USD 223 per tonne, 8 percent below their nearby (July) values. This situation is very much a reflection of tight supplies of the old crop while markets anticipate prices to drop below current levels by the end of year with the arrival of a bumper new crop in the United States.

PRODUCTION

Global output of coarse grains could recover strongly in 2013

FAO’s latest forecast for world production of coarse grains in 2013 stands at 1 259 million tonnes, 8.5 percent up from last year and a new record level, well above the previous high of 1 167 million tonnes in 2011. The bulk of the increase is anticipated in the United States, the world’s largest producer, where a sharp expansion in maize plantings is forecast, but it also reflects record crop prospects in China and good harvests already underway in South America.

Global output of maize in 2013 is forecast at about 963 million tonnes, 10 percent up from 2012. In the United States, the world’s largest maize producer, the early pace of maize planting was much slower than normal due to adverse weather. However, weather improved in mid-May and farmers made up quickly for the lost time. If weather conditions remain clement, survey data indicates that producers intend to plant the largest area since 1936. If these intentions are realized and yields return to normal after last year’s drought-reduced levels, the country’s maize output could increase to about 340 million tonnes. In China, the world’s second largest maize producer, 2013 production is expected to increase 2.8 percent above last year’s level to a new record of 214 million tonnes. In the EU, maize plantings are forecast to increase slightly this year and, assuming yields recover, output could increase by some 16 percent or 9 million tonnes to about 65 million tonnes.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the main 2013 maize harvests are underway or already complete in some countries. In South America, in Brazil, harvesting of the 2013 first maize season is progressing, while planting of the second season crop was completed in March. Official forecasts point to an aggregate production in 2013 of 77.8 million tonnes, a new record level, 9 percent above last year’s peak. This mainly reflects an expected 9 percent increase overall in the area harvested, driven by higher market prices. In Argentina, where harvesting of the 2013 maize crop is almost complete, production is officially forecast to increase by 21 percent from 2012, reaching 25.7 million tonnes. Higher yields in the key growing areas have more than offset a reduction in the area planted caused by excessive rains at sowing time. In Southern Africa, where the main maize harvest is already underway, aggregate output is forecast to decrease for the third year in succession, albeit slightly, to about 23 million tonnes, which would still remain above the short-term average. In South Africa, the subregion’s main producer and exporter, prospects have deteriorated since earlier in the season mainly because of dry conditions in western areas of the country’s maize triangle, predominantly a white maize producing region. Growing conditions remain more favourable in the yellow maize growing eastern areas. Based on latest indications, the country’s aggregate maize output is expected at 12.1 million tonnes, about 5 percent below the 2012 harvest, which was recently revised upwards.

[1]Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.

[2]Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, EU, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States.

[*]Countries listed according to their position in global production (average 2011-2013)

World output of barley in 2013 is forecast at about 138 million tonnes, 4.9 percent up from 2012. Larger harvests are expected in all the major barley producing countries throughout the world, but the most significant increases would be in North Africa and the CIS countries in Europe, where outputs are forecast to recover from last year’s drought-reduced levels.

TRADE

World trade in coarse grains to increase in 2013/14

FAO’s first forecast for world trade in coarse grains in 2013/14 (July/June) points to a 3 percent (4 million tonnes) expansion from the 2012/13 estimated level to an all-time high of 133 million tonnes.

The anticipated increase would be largely on account of a larger volume of maize trade, which is forecast to reach a record 103 million tonnes, up 3.5 percent (3.5 million tonnes) from 2012/13. The bulk of the increase is expected in Asia, where total maize imports could rise by 11 percent and reach 55.6 million tonnes. Imports by China alone are forecast to climb by 3 million tonnes in 2013/14 in spite of anticipated record production this year. China’s imports have been on the rise since 2010/11 and, while recent episodes of animal diseases slowed the pace of China’s feed grains purchases from world markets, the overall trend still points to further increases. Larger maize imports are also forecast for the Republic of Korea as the country is expected to take advantage of lower maize prices and reduce its purchase of feed wheat instead. Maize imports in Africa are forecast to increase significantly as well, from 13.2 million tonnes in 2012/13 to 15 million tonnes in 2013/14. Most of this increase is expected in Egypt where this year’s maize production could fall short of 2012/13 levels. Also in Latin America and the Caribbean, maize imports are forecast higher, especially in Mexico where, despite an increase in production, they could rise to 9 million tonnes in order to meet the growing demand from the feed sector. By contrast, imports into Europe are expected to fall sharply in 2013/14, mostly in the EU, given this year’s anticipated recovery in the production of wheat, a major feed grain in the Union. Elsewhere, imports by the United States are likely to return to a normal level of less than 1 million tonnes, down from an exceptionally high level of 3 million tonnes in 2012/13.

World barley trade is likely to remain steady at 19 million tonnes. Countries in Asia are expected to account for 81 percent of the world import volume with Saudi Arabia alone accounting for half of the volume flowing into the region. In Africa, current indications point to a small reduction in barley imports to just above 1 million tonnes with most of the decrease in Algeria, facilitated by higher domestic production. Likewise, in Europe, imports by the Russian Federation and Ukraine are seen to decline slightly, given the anticipated recovery in domestic supplies in 2013/14.

Global trade in sorghum is forecast to reach 7.5 million tonnes in 2013/14, up 500 000 tonnes from 2012/13. Purchases by Mexico, the world largest sorghum importer, are forecast to increase by 1 million tonnes, bringing total purchases to 3 million tonnes to meet rising domestic demand. Mexico’s increase will be partially offset by lower EU imports, now forecast to be halved to 300 000 tonnes in 2013/14. Global trade in other coarse grains (millet, rye and oats) is anticipated to total 3.5 million tonnes in 2013/14, unchanged from 2012/13 level.

Regarding coarse grains exports, a recovery in supplies of maize in the United States is expected to boost its shipments to over 34 million tonnes, which would be at least 10 million tonnes higher than the current season’s reduced level. Of this total, maize exports are put at 30 million tonnes. Coarse grains exports by Argentina are forecast to decline to 23.5 million tonnes on lower shipments of barley. Maize exports from Brazil may reach 23 million tonnes. In 2012/13, Brazil became the world’s largest maize exporter, with total shipments of 27 million tonnes, surpassing even the United States. However, the forecast decline in Brazil’s exports to 23 million tonnes would place the country as the second largest maize exporter in 2013/14, after the United States. Among the other major coarse grains exporters, total shipments from the EU are forecast to rise slightly, to 6.2 million tonnes, of which barley would account for 72 percent. While exports from Canada and Australia are likely to decline somewhat, maize exports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine are anticipated to increase. However, exports of barley from the two countries could remain close to 2012/13 levels.

UTILIZATION

Falling prices could boost feed and industrial utilization of coarse grains

Based on early indications, total utilization of coarse grains in 2013/14 could be heading for the first significant year-on-year expansion in more than five years. FAO’s first forecast for global utilization of coarse grains points to a 4 percent increase from the 2012/13 stagnated level, to an all-time high of 1 217 million tonnes. In contrast to the situation in the current season (2012/13), when total utilization in the developed countries is estimated to have contracted by over 2 percent against an expansion of 3.6 percent in the developing countries, the forecast growth in 2013/14 is likely to be shared equally between the developed and developing countries, with their use increasing by around 4 percent in each group. The expansions are mostly driven by expectations of much higher feed use, largely reflecting the anticipated rebound in maize supplies in the new season.

Total feed utilization of coarse grains is forecast to reach 686 million tonnes in 2013/14, some 5.6 percent higher than in 2012/13. In the developing countries, as a group, the aggregate feed use is projected at 349 million tonnes, 6 percent higher than the latest estimate for the current marketing season and exceeding the projected feed use in the developed countries for the second consecutive season. However, most of this increase is expected to be concentrated in few countries, primarily in the emerging markets such as Brazil and China. In the developed countries, where total feed use in 2013/14 is projected to rise by 5 percent (about 17 million tonnes) to 337 million tonnes, the bulk of the growth is expected in the United States, where a recovery in maize production and falling prices could boost its domestic feed utilization by as much as 16 percent (18 million tonnes) to 130 million tonnes.

World food consumption of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent in 2013/14, to 208 million tonnes. Although globally, direct human consumption of coarse grains may seem far less significant than that of rice or wheat, coarse grains do account for an important share of human food consumption in Central America and the Caribbean as well as many countries in Africa. At the global level, the anticipated rate of increase in food consumption of coarse grains would closely trail growth in world population, thus leading to a stable average per capita consumption of around 29 kg. In Africa, per capita consumption is projected at 78 kg while, in Central America, it is put at 99 kg.

Total industrial use of coarse grains is forecast to reach at least 292 million tonnes in 2013/14, up 3 percent from the estimated level in 2012/13. Globally, nearly one-half of total industrial utilization of coarse grains is concentrated in the United States (at over 150 million tonnes), of which at least 117 million tonnes will be used for production of ethanol in 2012/13 (October/September) according to the official estimates. This would be down 8.2 percent from 2011/12 as high prices weigh on ethanol production. However, based on the expectation of a record US maize crop this year, early projections point to a significant (5.4 percent) rebound in the US use of maize for production of ethanol in the new marketing season (2013/14), increasing to 123 million tonnes, which is still below the 127 million tonnes record hit in 2010/11.

STOCKS

Inventories to rebound from a 2-year low to highest in 14 years

Assuming current production forecasts for 2013 materialize and based on FAO’s early projections for total utilization in 2013/14, global inventories of coarse grains are likely to reach 214 million tonnes by the close of seasons in 2014. This is as much as 24 percent (41 million tonnes) above their 2-year low opening levels of only 173 million tonnes and the highest level since 2000. This will lift the global stock-to-use ratio from the historically low level of 14.2 percent in 2012/13 to at least 17 percent in 2013/14, signalling a notable improvement in the global supply and demand balance in the new season after an exceptionally tight situation in 2012/13. This improvement is also evidenced by the sharp increase in the major exporters’ stock-to-disappearance ratio (i.e. domestic consumption plus exports), which is forecast to rebound from the historical low level of 8 percent in 2012/13 to 12.5 percent in 2013/14 – the highest level since 2009/10.

The bulk of the recovery in world stocks of coarse grains is expected in the United States, where maize stocks, having fallen to a critically low level of 19 million tonnes in 2012/13, are forecast to more than double and reach at least 45 million tonnes, their highest since 2005/06. Significantly larger inventories are anticipated in China, where based on current expectation of another record maize crop this year, inventories could reach 67 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes higher than their opening levels. Brazil is also expected to end the new season with much larger maize stocks, given this year’s bumper harvest and reduced export prospects compared to 2012/13. Larger carryovers, driven by the projected strong recovery in maize production this year, are also forecast for the EU.

RICE

PRICES

International rice prices stable around high levels

International rice prices were generally stable in the past five months, as indicated by the FAO All Rice Price Index (2002-04=100), which averaged 240 points in May 2013, unchanged from a revised January value. However, on average, prices still were about 2 percent higher than in the corresponding period in 2012. Across the various rice types, the lower quality Indica Rice index was quoted at 238 in May, same as in January, while the higher quality Indica dropped 4 points, or 1.8 percent, over the five-month period. Japonica rice prices were more volatile, dipping in the first quarter, amid growing competition among suppliers, before recovering in May to its January value. By contrast, aromatic rice varieties gained 6 percent between January and May 2013, reflecting thin supplies amid strong buying interest.

Seen from an origin perspective, prices have followed diverging trends since the beginning of the year. Large supplies exerted downward pressure on quotations in Thailand and Viet Nam, although the reduction or removal of minimum export prices also contributed to the drop in Viet Nam. For instance, the benchmark Thai white rice 100% B eased by 6.1 percent to USD 574 per tonne between January and May, and by 6.4 percent from May 2012 to May 2013, in spite of continued large government purchases under the rice pledging programme. The hefty public stocks held in Thailand also weighed on market sentiment, prompting Viet Nam to lower its own prices ahead of a possible offloading of large volumes of Thai rice on world markets. On the contrary, prices of regular Indica rice moved up in India, reflecting lower availabilities and large government purchases, and in Pakistan, on strong import demand from China and African countries. Prices also strengthened in the United States and in the chief exporters in South America, including Argentina and Uruguay, reflecting thin supply availabilities. In the United States, the high quality Indica US N.2 4% rice was quoted at USD 652 per tonne in May 2013, 5.8 percent higher than in January and almost 20 percent higher than in May last year.

In the next few months, the market attention is likely to focus on Thailand, regarding the possible release of large volumes of pledged rice from public stocks, but also on India, where the planned widening of the subsidized rice distribution programme may have an impact on export availabilities and prices. The pace of rice imports by China will also be critical, as the country emerged as one of the leading rice importers in the last year.

PRODUCTION

Preliminary forecasts for 2013 point to stronger production growth

Since the May 2013 release of global rice supply and demand balances, the only critical revision to the 2012 world rice production estimate concerned India, where output was officially raised by 2.4 million tonnes. India’s new production figure implies that the losses caused by the 2012 erratic monsoon rains were much less severe than originally believed. The revision lifts the 2012 global production aggregate to nearly 490 million tonnes, in milled rice terms, resulting in a 1.0 percent increase from 2011, equivalent to about 4.6 million tonnes, a relatively modest performance if compared to the 13 million tonne and 16 million tonne gains recorded by the sector in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The global pattern of the 2012 season follows closely the outcome of crops in Asia, where 444.5 million tonnes were harvested, some 4.4 million tonnes more than in 2011. The increase was supported by large gains in China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam, which more than compensated for shortfalls in India, Nepal and Pakistan, where crops were hit by unfavourable weather. In Africa, some 17.5 million tonnes are estimated to have been harvested, 5.4 percent more than in 2011. Much of the gain originated in Egypt, where high prices induced farmers to exceed their official cultivation limits, but also in Guinea, Madagascar, Mali and Senegal. In most of the region, the sector continued to benefit from special development programmes, as well as renewed investor interest. By contrast, output fell in Nigeria, reflecting excessive precipitation and flooding, and in Tanzania, because of delayed and erratic rainfall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, 2012 production contracted by almost 7 percent to 18.3 million tonnes, following weather and price-induced reductions in Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador and Uruguay. In the other regions, output in 2012 rose by 30 percent in Australia and by 8 percent in the United States, but stagnated in the EU and the Russian Federation.

With the 2012 rice season now concluded, the market attention is shifting to the 2013 crops. While countries along and south of the equator are already harvesting their main crops, in the Northern Hemisphere, countries have just completed the sowing of their 2013 first (or single) crop, or are still waiting for the rains to come to start planting. The bulk of production will only be garnered in the second half of the year. Still tentatively, and assuming normal weather conditions prevail in the coming months, FAO forecasts world rice production in 2013 to reach 499.1 million tonnes, which is 1.9 percent, or 9 million tonnes, more than in 2012. The expected increase falls short of those realized in 2010 and 2011, largely because of the existing global supply overhang, which could depress world prices and, ultimately, farm prices. However, the effect on plantings of a possible drop in world quotations is likely to be uneven, as many governments, especially in Asia, guarantee relatively high support price levels to producers, shielding them against international price dips. Farmers are more exposed in the Americas and Europe, where the transmission of prices from international to domestic markets looks stronger.

Under more regular climatic conditions, production in Asia is forecast to grow by 1.9 percent, or 8.6 million tonnes, to 453.0 million tonnes in 2013. Monsoon rains, which determine much of the outcome of the season in the region, have been predicted to reach 98 percent of their long-run average in India. If confirmed, they could support a 2 percent upturn of production in the country to a record 106 million tonnes, with much of the increase likely to be concentrated in the seven eastern states that have been targeted for production expansion under India’s “Extending the Green Revolution to Eastern States” programme. The raising of official paddy procurement prices and/or other support measures are expected to foster a continued expansion of outputs, especially in Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. However, at this preliminary stage, virtually all producing countries in the region look set to harvest larger crops, with the possible exceptions of Japan, which last year benefited from exceptionally favourable weather conditions, and Viet Nam, where official forecasts point to a slight decline of output. In 2013, 18.1 million tonnes of rice are expected to be harvested in Africa, 3.9 percent more than in 2012, with the largest absolute gains expected in Egypt, Mali, Nigeria and Tanzania. In Egypt, the recent decision to raise the permitted area for rice cultivation is foreseen to boost output by 4 percent. Large investments in the sector are also expected to underpin production in Western and Eastern Africa. However, prospects are negative for Madagascar, where the 2013 main crops are already at an advanced growing stage, reflecting mainly the possible negative effects of locust outbreaks on yields. Likewise, production in Mozambique has been hit by excessive precipitation and floods, which may result in a 15 percent shortfall from last season. In Latin America and the Caribbean, where the 2013 crops are already at the harvesting stage, production is forecast to rebound to 18.5 million tonnes, still remaining short of the 2011 record, as many producers cut rice planting in favour of more remunerative crops. In the other regions, prospects for 2013 are positive for Australia, with a 15 percent increase forecast by the Government, but remain downbeat in the United States and the EU, where adverse weather and unattractive price expectations may result in a contraction of the rice area.

TRADE

Weak import demand to result in a 2 percent contraction of rice trade in 2013

FAO has raised its previous forecasts of international rice trade in 2013 by about 200 000 tonnes to 37.6 million tonnes (milled basis). The revision mainly accounts for larger than previously forecast imports by China. On the supply side, it reflects more buoyant expectations for exports by India, Myanmar and Viet Nam, which more than offset downward adjustments for Thailand and the United States.

Compared to the 2012 record, the volume of rice trade in 2013 would be 2.6 percent lower, but still the second highest in history. The international trade in rice is now approaching 8 percent of world production, up from less than 7 percent in the previous decade. Much of the expected contraction of rice trade in 2013 would be associated with reduced purchases by Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines and Thailand, partly the result of good crops and, in the last three countries, of their efforts to thwart illegal rice inflows. Imports by the Islamic Republic of Iran and Egypt may also decline, following their fast paced purchases last year, which enabled them to refurbish stocks. On the other hand, official imports by China are predicted to remain at last year’s level of 2.4 million tonnes, as domestic prices are still substantially above nearby exporter’s quotations, making imports particularly attractive. China’s import figure does not make provision for unofficial inflows, which have been reported to be rising.

* January-May average for prices

As for exports, India is anticipated to ship 8.6 million tonnes this year, much less than the 10.3 million tonnes delivered in 2012 , but still sufficient for it to retain its leading position among international suppliers. The anticipated decline reflects rising prices in India and anticipation of larger domestic requirements, once the National Food Security Act, which guarantees very cheap rice supplies to a widened set of the population, is implemented. Reduced availabilities could also hinder exports from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. A large part of these shortfalls is expected to be covered by Viet Nam, which may see exports rising by 6 percent to 8.2 million tonnes. Indeed, the country has taken an aggressive stance to buoy sales, first by reducing or suspending its minimum export prices, fearing a reversal of policies in Thailand will result in a large release of supplies from stocks in the country and, hence, falling international prices. Egypt, Pakistan and the United States are also forecast to step up exports. Among the other important sources, Thailand is foreseen to export around 7 million tonnes, a similar level to last year, as the high prices guaranteed to Thai producers under the rice pledging programme continue to translate into export quotations far above those of competitors. However, shipments from Thailand could rebound sharply, should government procurement purchases under the pledging programme be discontinued or large supplies from public stocks be downloaded on the market.

UTILIZATION

Demand for food consumption continues to underpin world rice utilization

Global rice utilization in 2012/13 is estimated to hover around 478 million tonnes, almost 2 percent more than in the previous year, with most of the increase sustained by growing demand for food. Overall, this is gauged at close to 403 million tonnes, 7.5 million tonnes more than in 2011/12, which lifts the average world rice food intake per capita from 56.4 kg in 2011/12 to 56.8 kg in 2012/13. Rice remains a major staple for developing countries, where consumption is now estimated at 67.6 kg per person in 2012/13 compared to 12.3 kg per person in the developed countries. The increase in average rice food consumption is being facilitated in various countries by declining retail prices (Table 7) and, in others, by special subsidized distribution programmes targeting vulnerable population groups. However, retail prices remain high, exceeding USD 1.00 per kg in several markets, and have shown a tendency to rise in important countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Myanmar.

Based on expectations for a large increase in world supplies, under current prospects for a good 2013 production turnout, global rice utilization in 2013/14 is anticipated to expand strongly, by 2.7 percent or almost 13 million tonnes, to 491 million tonnes. Much of the increase would correspond to rice utilization as food, which will contribute to lifting per capita food consumption further. Demand of rice for food, however, could be affected by the very recent news regarding the detection of cadmium in rice produced in China’s Hunan province. Cadmium is a carcinogenic metal that can cause severe damage to kidneys and bones. This event could have implications at the national level, and divert a wider share of the country’s supplies towards feed and other utilizations, which include rice post-harvest losses. Based on current expectations, world rice per capita food consumption is anticipated to average 57.1 kg in 2013/14, up 0.4 percent from the previous year – rising in the developing countries, albeit by only 0.1 percent to 67.7 kg, and falling in the developed countries by 2.4 percent to 12.0 kg.

STOCKS

Exporting countries to account for the increase in world stocks

FAO’s forecast of global rice carryover stocks at the close of crop seasons in 2013 have been raised by about 2 million tonnes since May, to 173.7 million tonnes, mainly reflecting upward revisions for India, following the release of new production figures for 2012, and for Thailand, on lowered export prospects. At that level, inventories would be 7 percent larger than their opening level, with much of the increase concentrated in China and Thailand where inventories are bulging. The Chinese and Thai Governments are actively purchasing rice from the market to support producer prices. Based on the current estimates, the increase in carryover stocks would lift the world rice stock-to-use ratio from 33.8 percent in 2012 to 35.3 percent in 2013. Seen from a trade status perspective, inventories held by exporting countries are set to end close to 10 percent higher at 145 million tonnes, while importing countries may cut their reserves by 3 percent to 28.1 million tonnes. Large supplies are expected to be carried forward to next season by the major exporters, especially Thailand and India, where public stocks are reaching very high levels. Overall, the five major rice exporters (India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States and Viet Nam) are anticipated to increase their end-of-season inventories from 41.2 million tonnes in 2012 to 44.9 million tonnes in 2013, resulting in their stock-to-disappearance ratio rising from 25.2 percent to 26.8 percent over the two years.

[1]Calendar year exports (second year shown).

[2]Major exporters include India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.

Based on the current forecasts for 2013 production and very early prospects for 2014 trade, global rice carryover stocks at the close of marketing years in 2014 are anticipated to reach 182.0 million tonnes, an increase of 5 percent from their opening levels. This would lift the world stock-to-use ratio further to 36.3 percent in 2014.

/1Quotations in the month specified in the fourth column were compared to their levels in the preceding three, twelve and twenty-four months. Price comparisons were made in nominal local currency units.

[*]Wholesale prices.
Sources: FAO/GIEWS Food Price Data and Analysis Tool; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); Associazione Industrie Risiere Italiane (AIRI).

OILSEEDS, OILS AND MEALS[1]

PRICES[2]

As the 2011/12 season (October/September) drew to a close, international prices for both, oilseeds and meals/cakes started to ease, ending a spell of steady price rises. However, during the first seven months of the current 2012/13 season, oilseed quotations were, on average, above the level recorded during the corresponding period of the last three seasons, while those of meals remained close to all-time highs. In the meantime, oils/fats values continued to lose strength, following the downward path that commenced in 2011.

Oilseed prices eased, as forecasts of a full rebound and possibly a record performance in total oilseed production in 2012/13 allayed market concerns regarding global supply tightness. In particular, the prospect of record South American soy crops brought relief to the market, making up for the poor US soybean harvest. Additional factors contributing to the easing of soybean prices include relatively weak demand growth in China and the EU, the softening of international grains prices and forecasts of a possible bumper 2013/14 soy crop in the United States. However, a number of factors prevented oilseed prices from falling more markedly, notably unexpected weather problems in parts of South America, the market’s protracted, strong reliance on thinning old crop supplies from the United States and, more recently, the emergence of logistical bottlenecks in Brazil and sluggish sales of soybeans by Argentine farmers.

The world market for protein meals/cakes, which is dominated by soybean meal, largely followed the dynamics of the soybean market, with increasingly tight global fishmeal supplies also lending support to prices.

Regarding the slide in oils/fats prices during 2012/13, in addition to softening soybean values, developments in the palm oil market played a major role. A period of unusually high palm oil production combined with a temporary slowdown in import demand led to an exceptional surge in inventories in key producing countries, exerting downward pressure on prices. Furthermore, subdued economic growth worldwide has affected demand from the food and oleochemical industries, and, at the same time, demand from the biodiesel sector has reportedly weakened due to reduced profitability and growing uncertainty about the direction of future bio-energy policies.

Prices in the oilseed complex could ease further during the remainder of the season, with 2012/13 closing stocks and stock-to-use ratios for oils and meals anticipated to improve, plus there are encouraging, though still preliminary, crop forecasts for 2013/14. In addition, the gradual softening in CBOT soybean futures prices, which, since mid-March, have ranged below the corresponding values of the last two years, seems to point in the same direction.

OILSEEDS

Record 2012/13 production estimate

Global oilseed production is forecast to rebound strongly in 2012/13 – up 5 percent from last season’s depressed outcome and 2 percent higher than the historic record set in 2010/11. The rise is mainly due to the production forecast for soybeans, now expected to climb to a record 266 million tonnes – 11 percent more than in 2011/12. Soybean production gains are largely driven by expansion in area cultivated, given that, in several growing regions, unfavourable weather conditions have affected yields. As the season progressed, forecasts had to be successively lowered due to extreme weather conditions, first in the United States and then in some key production areas of South America, in particular in Argentina. In the United States, the crop suffered from an exceptional drought, driving down production for the second consecutive year. In Argentina, production prospects deteriorated as a result of excessive rainfall towards the beginning of the growing season. Despite spells of dry weather, Brazil and Paraguay reported record harvests thanks to further expansion in plantings and near-record yield levels. With the decline in US production, Brazil’s output should – for the first time – almost match that of the United States. Meanwhile, in Asia, China has reported a further production drop, due to additional cuts in area planted, whereas India has harvested a bumper crop, thanks to a yield increase that followed average rainfalls.

Note: The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown. For tree crops, which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.

Record outputs are also expected for rapeseed, groundnut and palmkernel. For rapeseed, production declines – caused by bad weather in Canada and planting reduction in Europe – should be more than offset by production gains in India, China and the United States. Higher global palmkernel production is largely based on further expansion of mature oil palm area in Indonesia, whereas the projected rise in groundnut mainly comes from record yields in the United States and from higher plantings combined with productivity increases in China.

By contrast, a noticeable production drop is forecast for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. The projected decrease in cottonseed output is mostly driven by lower plantings and yields in Brazil, India, Pakistan and Australia, which are only partially offset by good harvests in China and the United States. With regard to sunflowerseed, less favourable weather in the Russian Federation and the Ukraine prevented a repeat of last season’s bumper crop.

[1]Includes oils and fats of vegetable, animal and marin origin.

[2]Production plus opening stocks.

[3]Residual of the balance.

[4]Trade data refer to exports based on a common October/September marketing season and relate to the sum of trade in oils (meals) plus the oil (meal) equivalent of oilcrops traded.

[5]Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States.

[6]All meal figures are expressed in protein equivalent; meals include all meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as meals of marine and animal origin.

[7]Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay and the United States.

OILS AND FATS[3]

Growth in global oils/fats supplies to remain below trend

Current crop forecasts for 2012/13 translate into a year-on-year increase of 3 percent in global oils/fats production. Although above last season’s rate, the expected expansion remains well below trend growth. The fact that much of this year’s oilseed production rise comes from soybeans, which is a low oil-yielding crop, together with the prospect of only a moderate increase in palm oil production, explains the relatively modest growth in global output. Palm oil gains continue to be concentrated in Indonesia, thanks to expansion in mature oil palm area. However, compared with the past two years and given the absence of significant yield improvements, Indonesian production growth is poised to slow. In Malaysia, where unfavourable weather curtailed output last year, production should rebound thanks to a recovery in yields and small rises in mature area.

Global oils/fats supplies, which comprise 2012/13 production and 2011/12 ending stocks, are forecast to increase by less than 3 percent. Commodity-wise, robust growth in soy and palm oil supplies is to be partially offset by a contraction in global rape, sunflower and olive oil. Much of the projected rise in soyoil availabilities (referring to oil obtained from domestic crops) is expected to occur in Brazil, Argentina and China. Palm oil supply growth remains concentrated in Indonesia and Malaysia, the reduction in global rape oil availabilities originates in Canada, and the fall in sunflower and olive oil supplies concerns primarily the CIS region and the EU.

Oils/fats consumption growth to slow down in 2012/13

Estimated at 188 million tonnes, global consumption of oils/fats is predicted to expand by only 2 percent, compared with an average growth rate of over 4 percent for the last four years. The slowdown mainly reflects subdued global economic growth as well as weak demand from the biodiesel sector. The growth leader is palm oil, given its competitive price relative to soy and other oils. With palm oil demand expanding by a steady 5–6 percent per year, its share of total oils/fats consumption is set to approach 30 percent in 2012/13. By contrast, consumption growth should slow down in the case of soy and sunflower oil, while an absolute fall is forecast for rapeseed oil.

Consumption growth occurs almost exclusively in developing countries, in particular in Asia, where continued economic growth keeps stimulating demand for food and oleochemical products. The expansion of oils and fats consumption is expected to concentrate in China, India and Indonesia, partly reflecting national policy measures in support of domestic crushing and refining industries. In South America and Africa, consumption growth could slow down relative to previous years. Meanwhile, among developed nations, oils/fats consumption is bound to stagnate due to poor economic growth.

Demand from the biodiesel industry will continue contributing to global consumption growth, though considerably less than before. Unlike past years, industrial demand is expected to grow primarily among developing nations, where biodiesel production capacities have expanded and national policies continue to encourage biofuel production for either domestic use or export. Countries where biodiesel production should keep expanding include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, with Paraguay, Honduras, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Cuba standing ready to join the list of biodiesel producing countries. By contrast, among developed countries – which include the world’s leading biodiesel producers and consumers – oils/fats demand for biofuel production is forecast to grow only modestly. Several developed economies, notably within the EU, are considering to cap mandatory blending requirements and to limit subsidies granted to crop-based or “first generation” biofuels, due to concerns over the environmental footprint of such fuels. The exception is the United States, where domestic consumption targets for the current year have been raised and the tax break granted to blenders extended. The practice of producing biodiesel from imported feedstock or directly importing biodiesel is expected to continue in several developed countries.

2012/13 end-of-season stocks anticipated to rise

Based on the above supply and demand forecasts, 2012/13 global closing stocks (which comprise oil/fat inventories plus the oil contained in stored oilseeds) are anticipated to rise to about 33 million tonnes, up almost 4 percent from last season. The increase concerns primarily palm oil and, to a lesser extent, soy and rapeseed oil, while a sizeable reduction in inventories is anticipated for sunflower and olive oil. With regard to individual countries, China remains by far the largest stockholder. By the end of the season, China’s private and public stocks, comprising the oil contained in stored oilseeds, are expected to top 11 million tonnes. As for other major importers, India’s inventories should grow, whereas EU stocks are expected to drop below the level of past years. Among exporters, Malaysia is set for a reduction in its record palm oil inventories, while Indonesia is likely to expand its reserves. Among the world’s leading soy exporters, the United States should draw down inventories for the third consecutive year, dragging them to the lowest level in nine years. National stocks continue to be released to meet growing export demand. The same situation applies to Canada regarding rapeseed. By contrast, a replenishment of stocks should be possible in Argentina and especially Brazil.

Considering the relatively modest growth in world oils/fats consumption currently anticipated, the global stock-to-use ratio should improve slightly compared with last season. This, in part, explains the recent easing of international oils/fats prices.

Trade in oils/fats to expand further during 2012/13

After growing by 5 percent on average during the last five years, global trade in oils/fats is forecast to expand in 2012/13 by 3 percent to 101 million tonnes (including the oil contained in traded oilseeds). The slowdown mirrors this season’s sluggish consumption growth. Shipments of the two most traded oils, palm and soy, are estimated to rise by, respectively, 8 and 5 percent, while global trade in rape and sunflower oil should drop markedly – a pattern that reflects the prevailing price structure. Concerning exports, Indonesia and Malaysia are responsible for the expansion in palm oil shipments. Incremental soyoil sales should originate mainly in Argentina, where reduced domestic demand from the biodiesel industry (caused by lower EU biofuel imports) should raise export availabilities. The prospective drop in world sales of rapeseed oil mainly reflects Canada’s poor crop outturn, while the decline of sunflower oil trade is related to poor harvests in various parts of Europe, which have curbed export availability in the region.

As for global oils/fats imports, the three leading buyers, China, India and the EU, are forecast to expand their purchases. In China, the increase in domestic supplies is not sufficient to meet growing consumer demand, which is expected to boost the country’s imports to a record 23 million tonnes (including the oil equivalent contained in oilseed purchases). China could also take advantage of easing import prices to replenish domestic stocks. In India, the stagnation in domestic supplies is forecast to push imports above 11 million tonnes. In both countries, reliance on foreign purchases to satisfy domestic demand is bound to rise further. Regarding other Asian importers, a slowdown in domestic consumption growth is anticipated to curb aggregate purchases. The EU’s imports are expected to grow, even within the context of a stagnating domestic consumption, as they will be needed to compensate for the supply drawdown caused by poor rapeseed harvests. In Africa, where numerous countries are import-dependent, only a marginal increase in imports is expected, mirroring subdued consumption growth.

MEALS AND CAKES[4]

Global meal supplies to recover only partially in 2012/13

Current crop estimates translate into a conspicuous year-on-year rise in overall meals/cakes production. Estimated at 118 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents), global production should recover almost entirely from last year’s decline, almost matching the 2010/11 record. Soymeal will be the main source of growth, although production of rapeseed, groundnut and palmkernel meal would also improve. By contrast, production of sunflower and cottonseed meal is likely to fall, following poor crop outturns. The rise in total output concerns primarily soymeal producing countries in South America, notably Brazil, whereas sizeable year-on-year drops are expected for some other major players, in particular the United States and the EU.

Global supplies of meals/cakes, which comprise 2012/13 production plus 2011/12 ending stocks, are forecast to grow by less than 3 percent. Due to last season’s sharp drawdown in stocks, 2012/13 availabilities will only recover partially from last season’s significant drop. In the United States, the world’s leading meal producer, domestic availability is set to shrink for the second consecutive season, pushing supplies to a multi-year low. While sizeable supply drops are also expected in the EU and Canada, global availability of meals/cakes will still increase, thanks to massive improvements in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.

Global meal consumption to contract slightly in 2012/13

Persistently high meal/cake prices combined with weak economic growth world-wide should lead to an unusual contraction in global meal consumption, involving primarily soybean meal. Estimated at 116 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents), global utilization in 2012/13 will still be the second highest on record. Consumption falls are expected primarily in developed nations, whereas developing countries are likely to face a slowdown in growth. In Asia, the world’s major consuming region, demand is estimated to increase by merely 1 percent, which compares with an average of 8 percent in the last three years. In China, utilization is forecast to grow by no more than 2 percent, due to reduced growth in meat production. In India, meal demand may fall by 2–3 percent. By contrast, across South America, the steep rise in domestic availabilities should stimulate meal consumption. As a whole, developing countries should account for over 60 percent of global utilization compared with 53 percent only five years ago. In many developed countries, high feed costs eroded profitability in livestock production, eventually driving down meal demand. In the EU and the United States, meal consumption is projected to contract by, respectively, 4 and 9 percent, dragging meal utilization to multi-year lows.

Partial recovery in meals/cakes inventories likely

This season’s recovery in global production combined with the slowdown in consumption should allow a rebuilding of global meal/cake stocks. Led by soybeans, end-of-season stocks are forecast to rise to 18 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalent and comprising meal contained in stored oilseeds), up 6 percent from their opening level. Considering that global stocks dropped by 21 percent last year, the recovery expected for this year would only be a partial one. It is important to note that, among key stockholding countries, only Argentina and Brazil are expected to rebuild stocks. In the United States, as the country strives to satisfy demands of both domestic users and foreign buyers, inventory levels are set to shrink for the second consecutive season, falling to the lowest level in nine years. As to meal importing countries, China and the EU are expected to cut down their reserves for the second season in a row, reflecting efforts to compensate for stagnating or falling imports.

If realized, the anticipated reconstitution in global stocks would lead to an improvement in the global stock-to-use ratio. However, the ratio would still remain well below the level prevailing in past years, which explains the relative firmness of international meal prices during the past months.

Global meal trade unchanged from last season

After years of steady expansion, the 2012/13 global trade in meals/cakes is anticipated to remain mostly unchanged. Higher soymeal shipments should be offset by lower transactions of rape, sunflower and fish meal. The stagnation in total trade is directly related to subdued meal consumption in the world’s key importing countries. In China, imports (comprising the meal contained in imported seeds) should remain virtually unchanged, much in contrast to the steady expansion observed in previous years. The halt mainly reflects the unusual slowdown in domestic meal consumption. The EU is expected to cut its imports further, despite the anticipated drop in domestic supplies. For the developed country group, purchases could fall below 25 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents), a 3-year low, while developing country imports might reach 47 million tonnes, exceeding last year’s record by a small margin. Clearly, the record high international meal prices prevailing since the middle of 2012 have dampened the global appetite for imported meals.

The bulk of the world’s export supplies continues to come from the Americas. South America is expected to expand its shipments by only 2 percent, which, considering ample domestic availabilities, leaves sufficient room for the reconstitution of national stocks. In Brazil, limitations in domestic transport and port facilities are also behind the country’s weak export performance. In the United States, falling domestic supplies will force overseas sales down for the third consecutive year.

2013/14 PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

With the 2012/13 season still on-going, it is too early to provide supply and demand projections for 2013/14. The only preliminary, though incomplete, information that can be offered is based on planting intentions in the Northern Hemisphere, where preparations for the next oilcrop campaign are underway.

Although relatively firm world prices for oilseeds should stimulate plantings of crops for harvest in 2013/14, the competition for land remains strong due to the fact that also prices of other crops, in particular maize, are historically high. Accordingly, with regard to soybeans, in the United States, only minimal expansion is expected in area planted. Output is nonetheless projected to climb to a new record, as yields are assumed to return to trend levels. While production could also grow in India, a further drop in output is expected in China, due to cuts in area planted. In South America, a recovery in yields is expected to boost Argentina’s output. In Brazil, persistently high transportation costs are likely to continue weighing on farmers’ returns, possibly limiting expansion in area planted and, in turn, production gains. On the whole, a steep rise in global soybean production seems possible, provided normal weather conditions prevail. A similar picture is emerging for rapeseed production. A return to average yields should lift Canada’s harvest to near-record levels, despite a likely reduction in planted area in favour of wheat. In the EU, production is anticipated to rise on account of higher plantings, provided weather conditions continue to be favourable. Conversely, China’s production is forecast to drop as farmers increase plantings of wheat and other grains at the expense of rapeseed. By contrast, global sunflowerseed output should recover only partially from last season’s drop. Production gains would be led by the EU and Ukraine, mostly based on a recovery in yields. World cottonseed production is forecast to remain unchanged from last season, with reduced crops in China and the United States offsetting larger harvests in Brazil and India. Aggregate groundnut output is projected to fall, mainly reflecting likely reductions in planted area and yields in the United States.

Together, the above tentative forecasts point to a conspicuous increase in total oilseed production in 2013/14, led by soybean production gains in the United States and Argentina. As the anticipated production may outstrip consumption, the current supply and demand tightness could come to an end. This would mean that during 2013/14, the United States, Canada, the EU and China will be in a position to reconstitute their inventories, further improving the stock-to-use ratios and, potentially, facilitating a general easing of international prices for oilseeds and oilseed products.

[1]Almost the entire volume of oilcrops harvested worldwide is crushed to obtain oils and fats for human nutrition or industrial purposes, and to obtain cakes and meals which are used as feed ingredients. Therefore, rather than referring to oilseeds, the analysis of the market situation is mainly undertaken in terms of oils/fats and cakes/meals. Production data for oils (cakes) derived from oilseeds refer to the oil (cake) equivalents of national production of the relevant oilseeds, i.e. they do not reflect the outcome of actual oilseed crush in individual countries. Furthermore, the data on trade in and stocks of oils (cakes) refer to the sum of trade in and stocks of oils and cakes plus the oil (cake) equivalent of oilseed trade and stocks.

[2]For details on prices and corresponding indices, see appendix table 24.

[3]This section refers to oils from all origins, which – in addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds – include palm oil, marine oils as well as animal fats.

[4]This section refers to meals from all origins. In addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds, this also includes fish meal and meals of animal origin.

SUGAR

PRICES

International sugar prices easing

World sugar prices, as measured by the ISA daily prices (for raw sugar), have been on a declining trend since the release of the November 2012 issue of Food Outlook. Prices averaged US 19.31 cents per pound in December 2012 and fell to US 18.26 cents per pound in February 2013. They rose slightly to US 18.46 cents per pound in March, reflecting short-term supply tightness, but then retreated to US 17.80 cents per pound in April, when a larger than expected harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, was announced. Overall, from January to April 2013, sugar quotations were 22 percent lower than in the corresponding period in 2012, confirming the steady decline initiated in January 2011. The downward trend is attributed to an expansion of production in response to an historically low global stock-to-use ratio, which underpinned the market between 2008/09 and 2010/11. Prices in the second half of 2013 are likely to remain under downward pressure, given prospects of a second consecutive world production surplus which would bring the global stock-to-use ratio to a comfortable level of 40 percent.

* As measured by the International Sugar Agreement (ISA)

PRODUCTION[1]

World sugar production to reach a new record level in 2012/13

With most of the 2012/13 sugarcane and sugar beet crops already harvested in the main producing areas, FAO’s current estimate for world sugar production in 2012/13, at 180 million tonnes, is becoming firmer. The figure points to a new record production which surpasses the November 2012 preliminary forecast by 2.7 million tonnes. Much of this upward revision is due to production in Brazil, China, Mexico and the United States, which is more than compensating for the reduced forecasts in, mainly, EU, India and Thailand. World production is predicted to increase 2.8 percent over the previous season, with most of the gain stemming from developing countries, in particular Brazil, Mexico and China, which are predicted to harvest 137 million tonnes overall, 4.3 percent more than in 2011/12. By contrast, output in the developed countries is anticipated to contract by 1.8 percent to 42.5 million tonnes, mostly on account of the EU. Under the current forecast, world production in 2012/13 will be more than sufficient to allow for an increase in total consumption and a rebuilding of world inventories. The surplus is currently predicted to reach 6.5 million tonnes, although it is likely to be subject to revisions as the new season progresses in the southern hemisphere.

The expected expansion in world sugar production in 2012/13 season is attributed to an overall increase in area planted to sugarcane in response to the relatively high sugar returns witnessed over the past three seasons. In addition, attractive prices encouraged the use of fertilizers and other inputs, which boosted sugar crop yields. In South America, production is anticipated to increase by 5.9 percent, amid generally favourable weather conditions and larger plantings. The expansion in the region would be mainly on account of Brazil, where the sector is set to rebound by 6.8 percent to 38.6 million tonnes. Sugar production also responds to changes in the ethanol/sugar price ratio, which eventually determines how much of the two products will be produced out of sugarcane. The higher the price ratio, the larger the amount of cane converted into ethanol at the expense of sugar. The Government of Brazil recently introduced two measures that have the potential to divert a greater share of sugarcane output into ethanol. First, it increased the mandatory amount of ethanol to be blended into gasoline back to 25 percent beginning in May 2013. The blending rate had been cut to 20 percent in October 2011, following a poor 2011/12 sugarcane harvest. Second, after keeping gasoline prices unchanged since 2006 to check inflation, it raised them by 7 percent, a move that improves the competiveness of ethanol against gasoline at the pump. Sugar production is also expected to increase in Colombia, the second largest producer in the region, but it will remain about unchanged in Argentina, where less than favourable weather, mostly in the main producing region of Tucuman, prevented expansion in sugarcane production.

In Central America, revised forecasts for 2012/13 indicate that sugar production in Mexico will increase, prompted by favourable rains and the introduction of high-yielding plant varieties. In Guatemala, higher than expected sugarcane yields boosted sugar output in 2011/12, no further increase is anticipated for the new season. In Cuba, sugar production is expected to continue its moderate recovery, driven by investment in increasing sugar productive capacities at farm and factory levels. A series of policy measures, including higher official support to cane prices, also helped incentivise farmers. In Africa, 2012/13 sugar production is projected to rise on the back of largely favourable weather conditions. South Africa, Swaziland and Sudan are set to harvest larger crops, while output is expected to remain at last year’s level in Egypt. In Swaziland, area planted under sugarcane has increased 20 percent since 2000, driven by investment in irrigation and price incentives provided under the EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) introduced in 2009. Sugarcane production is expected to benefit from improved climatic conditions in South Africa, the largest producer in the region, after the country was hit by the worst drought in 20 years in 2010/11 and 2011/12, affecting yields and reducing harvested areas.

In Asia, sugar output is expected to increase by 1.7 percent compared to the 2011/12 marketing season, sustained by expansions in China and Pakistan.

At the same time, production is set to fall in India and Thailand. In India, relatively attractive returns in 2010 and 2011 encouraged farmers to increase their sugarcane plantings and use of fertilizers. However, below average monsoon rains during the cane’s critical growing stage hindered yields. As a result, sugar production in the country is anticipated to decline by 5 percent to 26.6 million tonnes. In April 2013, the government approved a partial deregulation of the sugar industry, abolishing the required 10 percent levy on sugar mills and deregulating sales in the open market. These measures are likely to moderate the amplitude of the production cycles which characterize the sugar subsector in India. Latest estimates indicate that 2012/13 sugar output in Thailand, the world’s second largest sugar exporter, could fall below the all-time high recorded in the previous season, as less than favourable weather conditions led to weaker sugar extraction rates. Still, sugar output is to remain around the relatively high levels of the past two seasons, sustained by recent expansions in harvested areas and investments at factory level. Sugar production in China is expected to surge in 2012/13, notably in Guangxi, China’s largest sugar producing province, and Yunnan, its second largest. Financial assistance, as well as the subsidized inputs that sugar mills provided to farmers, were major contributing factors in boosting plantings. In Pakistan, sugar output is expected to reach a record in 2012/13, following favourable monsoon rains, which lifted yields and harvested areas. Outputs in 2012/13 are also likely to increase in Indonesia and Vietnam, but may remain stagnant in Turkey and Japan.

In Europe, the latest estimates for the EU point to a decrease in sugar production, largely due to unfavourable weather conditions hampering beet yields, notably in France and Germany. Nonetheless, the EU’s ending stocks are foreseen to return to historic levels, as about 900 000 tonnes of sugar are expected to be carried over from the 2011/12 season into 2012/13. The final decision regarding the elimination of sugar production quotas and minimum sugar beet prices, which would likely foster an expansion in sugar production, is expected sometime in June 2013. The EU Commission, Parliament and Council are all proposing different years for their abolition. Production in 2011/12 is expected to fall in the Russian Federation, as a result of delays in planting due to cold weather. The decline would also reflect the decision by farmers not to expand area, given the scarcity of storage facilities – an issue they dealt with last year when they harvested a record-level crop. Sugar production is expected to remain relatively unchanged from last season in Ukraine, despite further contraction of beet plantings. Beet prices are less competitive than alternative crops such as maize, sunflower and wheat. In Australia, sugar production is set to rise by 12.5 percent, spurred by favourable growing conditions as well as favourable sugarcane prices, which stimulated sharp increases in sugarcane area. Gains in average sugarcane yields to about 85 tonnes per hectare also helped boost production, as compared to 2011/2012. In the rest of the world, production in the United States is forecast to surpass its 2011/12 level and reach a record high, sustained by increases in both beet and cane sugar outputs, amid conducive weather conditions.

UTILIZATION

World sugar consumption sustained by lower prices

Global sugar consumption is anticipated to reach 173.5 million tonnes in 2012/13, 3.7 million tonnes, or 2.2 percent more than in 2011/12, perfectly in line with the 10-year trend. Large supply availabilities and lower international and domestic prices are expected to support increases in per capita sugar intake in 2012/13. Falling domestic sugar prices were witnessed in all the major markets, including Brazil, China and India. Under current prospects, world per capita sugar consumption is anticipated to rise slightly, from 24.3 kg in 2011/12 to 24.6 kg in 2012/13. In developing countries, aggregate sugar utilization is estimated to expand by 2.6 percent, or 3.1 million tonnes, to 121.8 million tonnes, equivalent to 70 percent of global consumption. In the generally more mature markets of developed countries, consumption is to increase by 1.1 percent, to 51.7 million tonnes. However, a deterioration of the 2013 global economic prospects could undermine demand expansion, as manufacturing and food preparation sectors, which account for the bulk of aggregate sugar consumption, are highly influenced by the economic environment. Also, the depreciation of the currency of several major sugar importers against the US dollar – which makes imports in domestic currency more expensive – could lead to weaker intake of sugar in these countries, which include Egypt, Syrian Arab Republic and Japan.

TRADE

Weaker import demand behind a contraction of world sugar trade in 2012/13

The forecast for world sugar trade in 2012/13 (October/September) stands at 51.1 million tonnes, 2.6 percent less than in the previous season. The main feature of sugar trade in the 2012/13 season is the rebounding of deliveries from Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, which had fallen in 2011/12 amid tight domestic supplies. Brazil is expected to supply 50 percent of world trade in 2012/13. However, the final volume sold abroad by the country will very much depend on the quantity of sugarcane production processed into ethanol, especially considering the recent increase in the mandated blend ratio and gasoline prices, as explained in the production section. Demand for ethanol will also be driven by the need of the United States to meet its advanced mandate requirements through imported ethanol-based sugarcane from Brazil.

Likewise, Thailand, the second largest exporter, is expected to expand sugar deliveries, but only slightly above last year’s record, spurred by abundant supply availability. The bulk of the country’s exports is forecast to be shipped in raw form (about 60 percent) to neighbouring countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia and the Republic of Korea. Exports to China are expected to contract given the increase in Chinese production. Thailand is also expected to fill its 2013 tariff rate quota (TRQ) with imports from the United States of 15 027 metric tonnes (raw value). Due to the expected reduction in sugar output, shipments from India are estimated at 800 000 tonnes, down from 3.7 million tonnes last season. India’s competitiveness on the international market is being constrained by rising production costs and falling world prices, which may depress exports below last’s year level, despite relatively comfortable supply availability. Supported by greater domestic production and exportable surplus, deliveries from Australia, the world’s third largest supplier, are set to rise, to just below the country’s historic high of 3.61 million tonnes. A bumper crop is also expected to raise deliveries by South Africa, with the bulk of shipments directed to the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) market, and to the United States to fill its 2013 TRQ allocation. Exports by Guatemala are foreseen to hover around the same level as last year, given ample supply availabilities and competitive pricing. Sugar has become a key source of foreign exchange earnings for the country, with large investments targeting refined sugar export markets, especially in the United States, the Republic of Korea and Canada, the main destinations of Guatemala’s sugar export. Sales by Mexico are anticipated to increase in 2012/13, due to greater production. The Government of Mexico recently established a trust fund to facilitate exports of sugar surplus to NAFTA and international markets, in an attempt to lift internal prices. However, the final amount of shipped sugar still will depend on the extent to which high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) substitutes for domestic sugar use. Production gains are also anticipated to enable Cuba to step up exports, with the bulk of the sales directed to China.

Imports by Asian countries are forecast to decline somewhat in 2012/13 as a result of higher sugar production. Much of the reductions would result from lower purchases by China, reflecting expectations of an increasing domestic output and a slowdown in state purchases as stocks return to comfortable levels. After being the main driver of imports between 2009 and 2011, and with shipments growing by 41 percent per year, China is expected to rely less on international markets in 2012/13. On the other hand, shipments into Japan and Malaysia are predicted to change little, while imports into Indonesia may increase, as demand from the food and beverages industry remains steady. In Europe, shipments to the EU are forecast to fall due to ample domestic availabilities. However, estimates for imports may be revised upwards considering the conclusion of a free trade agreement between Colombia, Peru and the EU. The agreement took effect provisionally for the EU and Peru on 1 March 2013, and the agreement with Colombia will follow at a later date. A similar agreement between the EU and six countries in Central America – Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama – also could take effect next year, which would add pressure for EU’s imports to increase further. These free trade agreements will allow additional duty-free TRQs, amounting to 264 000 tonnes of sugar and increasing at annual rate of 3 percent. As a result of falling domestic production, imports by the Russian Federation, once the world’s largest sugar market, are expected to rise from 800 000 tonnes in 2011/12 to about 1 million tonnes in 2012/13, far below the 2.8 million tonnes imported in 2010/11. In the rest of the world, purchases by the United States, about half of which are managed through a TRQ system of 1.4 million tonnes, may drop somewhat in light of expected higher output while, overall, African countries are expected to import 2.7 percent more, as increasing population and per capita income triggered strong increases in demand.

[1]Sugar production figures refer to centrifugal sugar derived from sugar cane or beet, expressed in raw equivalents. Data relate to the October/September season.

MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS

Moderate meat production growth; trade to slow

World meat production, is anticipated to grow modestly in 2013 to 308.2 million tonnes, an increase of 4.3 million tonnes or 1.4 percent compared with 2012. In many countries, producers continue to struggle against elevated feed prices; however, although remaining high by historical standards, they began to fall during the second half of 2012 and have continued to diminish during 2013. This has offered greater scope for profitable meat production, particularly in the pig and poultry sectors, which are the most dependent on concentrated feed. Meat production is anticipated to grow the most vigorously in the developing countries, which are the main centres of demand growth.

Meat prices have remained at historically high levels since the early part of 2011. The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 179 in May 2013, having moved within the narrow band of 177–179 since October 2012. Export reference prices for the different types of meat have followed varying directions so far this year, rising marginally for poultry and pork, remaining largely stable for beef, and falling for ovine meat.

Meat trade is expected to grow more slowly in 2013 than in recent years due to adequate national supplies in a number of importing countries and a reduction in production among some of the major exporters. Global meat exports are anticipated to rise to 30.2 million tonnes in 2013, an increase of 1.1 percent over 2012.

BOVINE MEAT

Herd rebuilding over the past two years promotes production growth in 2013

Bovine meat production is forecast to reach 68.1 million tonnes in 2013, representing a further increase over 2012, which had followed two years of stagnation in 2010 and 2011. The resurgence in output is being led by the developing countries, which collectively account for almost 60 percent of the world total, while climatic factors have restrained beef production in many developed countries.

In South America, cattle availabilities and slaughter have been rising, particularly in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, following two years of herd rebuilding. For Argentina, this process may be amplified in 2013, due to an augmentation of slaughter rates in the face of higher production costs. In addition, as a result of government-imposed restrictions on exports, external market demand is less of a factor in expanding meat production than in neighbouring Paraguay and Uruguay. In Brazil, the world’s second largest beef producer after the US, production is expected to reach a record 9.5 million tonnes, as pasture conditions are good, the industry is improving its management practices, and international demand is strong.

In Asia, India, the fifth largest bovine meat producer, is anticipated to show additional production growth, as is Vietnam, thanks to its investments in new processing operations. Beef output is forecast to continue to increase in the Republic of Korea, reflecting government slaughter subsidies and challenges to profitability in the light of low-priced domestic pork. In China, production is expected to remain around 6.5 million tonnes, which is similar to the previous three years, as the sector comes to terms with labour shortages and high production costs that have led many small-scale producers to cease operations.

For Africa, bovine meat production in Egypt could show limited recovery in 2013, following extensive culling due to a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in 2012. Output in South Africa is also anticipated to increase. Elsewhere in the region, weather conditions have generally been favourable for pasture growth and feed grains – presenting the prospect of rising beef production for the continent overall.

In developed countries, production of bovine meat is anticipated to be constrained in a number of the principal producers, offsetting some of the growth in the developing countries. In the United States, the world’s largest beef producer, output is expected to fall by 3 percent. This is due to a drop in cattle slaughtered – a situation that stems from a decline in the production of calves linked to drought-related herd reduction. US producers also have had to cope with elevated feed costs. The same factors are expected to cause a similar decline in production in neighbouring Canada. In the EU, the world’s third largest beef producer, production is expected to contract to 7.6 million tonnes. However, it will be at 0.5 percent, a much slower rate than the 4 percent fall in 2012, which perhaps represents a slowing of the long-term decline in the Union’s cattle herd amidst some indications that production may grow in 2014. In Oceania, dry conditions in recent months and the carryover effect of higher feed costs in 2012 are anticipated to raise slaughter rates and boost production in both Australia and New Zealand. In the Russian Federation, reduced profitability is expected to lead to further herd reduction, with a resultant increase in beef production. In Japan, bovine meat output is projected to remain stable at around the 0.5 million tonne mark.

Trade in bovine meat to rise: Brazil and India vie for premier exporter position

Although for the past two years, prices have been at the highest levels of the past two decades, trade in bovine meat increased in 2012 and is expected to register further growth in 2013, with world exports expanding by 4 percent to 8.6 million tonnes. A shortage of domestic supplies in a number of countries has been an important contributor to the trade expansion.

Marked increases in imports are expected for the United States, the world’s largest beef importer (and a major exporter) and, to a lesser degree for Canada, to compensate for domestic shortfalls. Demand from China is also anticipated to remain firm and imports may increase by over 20 percent compared to 2012 levels – especially as some consumers switch from poultry to other meat, following an outbreak of avian influenza. Elsewhere in Asia, imports by Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam are expected to increase moderately, while purchases by the Republic of Korea are anticipated to remain depressed, as a consequence of ample domestic supplies and price competition from other types of meat. Deliveries to the Russian Federation, the second largest importer, could also be below those of the previous year, as a result of a rise in domestic supplies. In the EU, 2013 imports are expected to be similar to 2012.

The development of buffalo meat exports by India is boosting the country’s deliveries to Asian neighbours and to the Near East and North Africa. India’s principal markets are Vietnam and Malaysia; however, the meat has found a ready outlet in many other countries. Overall, India’s 2013 bovine meat exports may grow by as much as 15 percent to 1.6 million tonnes. At this level, sales would equal those of Brazil, and be above those of the other two principal beef exporting countries, Australia and the United States. In total, these four countries together supply 65 percent of bovine meat trade.

Higher production means that increased shipments are expected for both Brazil and Australia, by 6 percent and 4 percent, respectively. At the same time, limited domestic supplies will keep United States’ trade at a level similar to 2012. Elsewhere, and in order of volume of trade, New Zealand, Uruguay, Paraguay, Mexico and Argentina, which together represent approximately a further 20 percent of trade, are all anticipated to increase sales, while shipments by the EU, Canada, Belarus and Nicaragua are forecast to remain stable or dip slightly lower.

PIGMEAT

Growth in Asia to sustain world pigmeat production

Production of pig meat is expected to grow by 1.5 percent to a record level of 114.2 million tonnes in 2013. However, the rate of growth will be slower than in the previous year, as a result of higher slaughter rates in 2012 in response to the elevated price of feed and, in some cases, abundant stocks, which depressed prices. Almost two-thirds of pig meat production originates in the developing countries, which is where most of the increase in output is forecast. Conversely, composite production by the developed countries is expected to show a small decline. Asia is the principal region, accounting for almost 60 percent of world pig meat production. Strong consumer demand and government support policies are anticipated to result in China’s pork output reaching 53.8 million tonnes, or almost half of the world total. Recovery from FMD-depletion should boost production in the Republic of Korea. Elsewhere in Asia, listed by magnitude of production, output is forecast to be moderately higher in Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, Thailand and Indonesia – in some instances, growth in the sector is being limited by competition from other types of meat.

In the Americas, Brazil, the world’s fourth largest producing country, is expected to see pigmeat output increase, stimulated by improved pig prices. In Mexico, production continues to expand, underpinned by improved genetics and productivity, which are translating into more piglets per litter and higher animal weights.

In the EU – at 22.4 million tonnes, the second most important pork producer after China – compliance with animal welfare requirements relating to the housing of sows is expected to depress output for a second year, with an anticipated fall of 2 percent. In the United States, the third largest producing country, lower feed costs and increased slaughter, associated with an expansion of the breeding herd could lead to limited growth. In Canada, producers’ struggles to remain profitable have resulted in a number ceasing operations –consequently a small decrease in output is anticipated. In the Russian Federation, where a sustained 4 percent growth is forecast, the industry is being assisted by reduced feed prices and is benefitting from government policies favouring large-scale farms

Pig meat trade stalls in the face of reduced demand in Asia and lower export availabilities

Reduced output among some of the principal exporting countries and a decrease in demand by several major importing countries are expected to result in a decline in pig meat trade during 2013. Shipments are anticipated to fall by 4 percent to 7.2 million tonnes. Pig meat imports by Asian countries, which as a group represent approximately half of world demand, are expected to fall for a second year: after being down by 4 percent in 2012, a 6 percent decrease is anticipated for 2013. Procurement by the Republic of Korea is forecast to register a substantial drop for the second year in a row, decreasing by around 150 000 tonnes, or 30 percent. This reflects a build-up of stocks and a fall in domestic prices stemming from a strong recovery of production following the 2011 FMD outbreak. Japan, the largest importer, is anticipated to cut purchases by 2.5 percent, reflecting expanding production and strong competition from poultry and imported beef. Imports by China are expected to be stable, following notable growth in recent years, as a consequence of a rise in production. Elsewhere, the Russian Federation, Mexico, the United States and Canada are anticipated to maintain purchases at a similar level to last year, while Ukraine’s purchases may fall due to restrictions on imports established in favour of national producers.

In terms of exports, reduced availability in the United States, the EU and Canada – which account for 75 percent of world trade – is expected to constrain sales, especially in the EU, where shipments are anticipated to fall by 10 percent. Brazil, the fourth largest exporter, is facing restrictions on pig meat trade in some markets, such as the Ukraine, and thus may also see a decline in sales. Moderate growth in shipments by smaller scale exporting countries will go some way to counterbalance reduced exports by the main trading countries. Sales by non-traditional exporters, such as Chile and Mexico, are expected to rise, especially in Mexico due in part to its newly recognized status as free of Classical Swine Fever. Shipments from Belarus are also set to increase, facilitated by a newly negotiated customs union with the Russian Federation.

POULTRY MEAT

Production growth continues despite disease outbreaks

Global poultry production is anticipated to increase 1.8 percent to 106 million tonnes in 2013. While growing, output remains constrained by the cost of feed, although this may fall further during the year. Unlike bovine and pig meat, production growth is foreseen in both developing and developed country groupings. Competitive pricing of poultry relative to other meats is an important element in its momentum. Estimating 2013 output for China – currently the second largest producer, but on trend to replace the United States as the main producing country in the next few years – remains difficult because of culling and limitations on the retail sale of live poultry following an outbreak of H7N9 influenza strain in March. Furthermore, consumer confidence in poultry meat has diminished and sales are reported to have suffered. Consequently, China’s poultry output has been provisionally set as unchanged from 2012, in contrast with the 2.6 percent increase originally projected. An outbreak of the H7N3 strain in Mexico in April is also causing concern. In the United States, a 1.6 percent increase in output is anticipated as production has recovered from the 2012 slump, aided by improved prices and a reduction in feed costs. Elsewhere, production growth is anticipated for the EU, Brazil and the Russian Federation, which collectively account for 26 percent of world production. Continued rapid expansion is forecast for India, where output may rise by 8 percent. Among the top 20 producing countries, apart from the uncertainty surrounding China, only Japan is expected to register a fall in output, which could decline by 0.7 percent in response to oversupply and associated reduced prices stemming from a sharp increase in production in 2012 and a subsequent build-up of stocks.

Trade slows

Poultry, the most traded category of meat, represents almost 45 percent of world commerce. Although the volume of sales doubled over the past decade, growth has stalled since 2010. This slowdown is expected to continue in 2013, when trade is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent to 13.3 million tonnes. Purchases by Asia, the main importing region, are anticipated to increase by 0.6 percent, due to growth in purchases by Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan, among others. However, abundant domestic supplies in Japan and the Republic of Korea, and concerns over avian influenza that have led to decreased consumption in China, are expected to curb imports. Compared to other regions, imports for Africa as a whole are forecast to show strong growth in 2013, increasing by 6 percent. Among the main importing countries, South Africa, Angola, Benin, Ghana and Egypt are all anticipated to purchase more, as income growth strengthens demand. In Egypt, culling associated with avian influenza, combined with FMD-induced high beef prices, will provide an additional stimulus to imports. Deliveries to the Russian Federation in 2013 are expected to increase moderately, in part due to the recent customs agreement with Ukraine and Belarus. Imports by the Federation remain at less than half what they were in the mid-2000s, because of a considerable increase in domestic production. Rising poultry production within the European Union could lead to reduced purchases in 2013, while imports by Mexico and Canada are anticipated to change little, amid stable domestic demand.

Subdued import demand and reduced margins are expected to restrain overall world poultry exports; however, a rising trend in medium-sized exporting countries’ trade is discernible. The most important trading countries, Brazil, the United States and the EU, which together account for almost three-quarters of global trade, have had little expansion in sales in recent years. Instead, most growth has come from second-tier exporters, including Thailand, China, Argentina, Turkey, Chile, the Ukraine and Belarus. This pattern is expected to be maintained for 2013, with the exception of China. Shipments from Thailand to the EU are forecast to rise vigorously, supported by competitive pricing and EU’s lifting of an eight-year AI-induced ban on fresh and chilled products. Likewise, exports from Turkey, which have benefited from a rising regional demand, especially from Iraq, are forecast to grow by over 15 percent. Government investments are supporting record Argentine exports, particularly to regional markets, including Venezuela and Chile.

OVINE MEAT

Production rising steadily

Production of ovine meat continues to show modest growth, following a period of stagnation, and is forecast to rise 1.2 percent, to 13.8 million tonnes, in 2013. Developing countries account for three-quarters of output, with the largest producers in this grouping being China, India, Sudan and Nigeria. Furthermore, ovine meat is an important element in the markets of many countries in North Africa and the Near East. Satisfactory pasture conditions have set the basis for flock rebuilding for many of the major producing areas of Asia and Africa. In developed countries, the main production growth is expected to come from Australia and New Zealand. Output in Australia is anticipated to register a particularly strong rise – increasing by 10 percent. In the EU, the long-term decline in output is expected to continue, as a result of high production costs and limited returns to producers.

Demand rising in China and the Near East

Import demand for ovine meat is expected to register a second strong year, growing by over 6 percent to 850 000 tonnes in 2013. Most of the increase is anticipated to come from China, but will also encompass the EU and a number of countries in the Near East, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar. Almost 90 percent of world trade is supplied by Australia and New Zealand. Of the two countries, Australia is anticipated to record the strongest growth in sales, although those of New Zealand are also expected to grow substantially. A shift in market demand to China and the Near East is also leading to a change in the type of meat shipped, with a movement towards whole carcasses, including offal, as opposed to a preference for only the higher value cuts which characterizes the markets of the EU and the United States.

MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS

PRICES

International prices surge in the face of limited availability

International prices of dairy products registered strong growth during the first part of the year, particularly in March and April. Although prices fell back in May, they still maintained elevated levels substantially above 2012. The main cause of the leap in prices was a steep fall-off in New Zealand’s milk production, due to an abnormally prolonged dry period at the start of the year. This led farmers to dry-off or cull milk cows early which, in turn, caused a reduction in milk production and in the processing of dairy products. Consequently, spot prices for New Zealand dairy products moved ahead sharply, particularly for milk powders, as buyers bid against each other for limited supplies. New Zealand’s output for the 2012/2013 (June-May) production year is projected to finish only slightly below the previous season – which itself was a record. Thus, the scale of the jump in prices reflected the absence of commercial stocks able to cater for an unexpected reduction in availability, rather than a more profound shortage of world supplies.

The FAO Dairy Price Index reached 259 points in April, almost the same level as the historical peak in late 2007, before dropping to 250 in May. Even with the reduction, prices are still substantially above a year ago, particularly for milk powder compared to May 2012. Whole milk powder (WMP) has risen by USD 2 210 per tonne or 74 percent; skimmed milk powder (SMP) by USD 1 930 per tonne, or 69 percent; butter by USD 1 175 per tonne, or 38 percent; and cheddar cheese by USD 975 per tonne or 27 percent.

A further easing in dairy prices is anticipated during the coming months as milk production moves into full swing in the Northern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, as production in exporting countries in this region will barely increase, much of the tenor of the international market for the remainder of the year will depend on how Oceania shapes up in the new season. With publicly-financed inventories at minimal levels in the EU and the United States, and almost non-existent elsewhere, the international market remains exposed to sudden changes in milk production and availability of milk products, as seen so far this year, and which may become a common feature in the future.

PRODUCTION

World milk production to show steady growth in 2013

World milk production in 2013 is forecast to grow by 2.2 percent to 784 million tonnes – a similar rate to recent years. Asia is expected to account for most of the increase, with output in India, the world’s largest milk producing country, forecast to rise by 5.3 million tonnes to 139 million tonnes: per capita milk consumption is estimated to have grown by almost 30 percent in the past decade, while India’s population increased by 17.6 percent from 2001 to 2011. This dynamic domestic demand is providing the main impetus for growth, as India is largely absent from the international dairy markets. Unlike in many countries, expansion in herd size, in addition to a rise in productivity, is an important engine in the development of India’s milk production. Increased output is also anticipated in China, Pakistan and Turkey, spurred by steady growth in consumer demand. The Republic of Korea is slowly recovering from the 2011 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak which required the slaughter of 8 percent of its dairy herd and led to a corresponding drop in milk production.

In Africa, a moderate increase in milk output is anticipated for 2013, assisted by overall favourable weather conditions. Expansion in output is anticipated for Algeria, Morocco and Uganda, where government policies in support of dairy development and an expansion of processing capacity have contributed to the increase. In Uganda, restocking in the conflict-affected northern parts of the country has also aided growth. For East Africa overall, a good start to the rainy season has assisted pasture growth in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. For Kenya, it is unclear whether the January introduction of a ban on the sale of raw milk, the common way of retailing milk, will reduce overall demand. In South Africa, where milk production has been running below 2012 levels as producers struggle to remain profitable, a fall in maize prices may provide some respite for the remainder of the year.

Rising incomes and firm regional and international demand have favoured dairy production growth in several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Additionally, most South American countries had very good pasture conditions during the 2012/2013 production year. Overall, South American milk production is foreseen to expand by 3 percent in 2013, a rate similar to 2012, to 72 million tonnes. Gains are forecast for Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay. In addition to rising domestic demand, a number of these countries stand to benefit from the prevailing elevated prices for dairy products in both regional and international markets. The overall positive outlook has stimulated investment in new technology and improved animal genetics. In Argentina, although there has been substantial investment in new processing capacity, milk output has stagnated in the past two years, in the face of falling domestic demand and limitations on exports – with no growth foreseen in 2013. For Central America, milk output in Mexico, the largest producer in the subregion, is expected to be constrained by chronically dry to drought conditions in many parts of the country, leading to herd reduction and the withdrawal of a number of small-scale producers from the industry. Production in Costa Rica is expected to show a moderate increase.

In North America, milk production in the United States is forecast to increase by only 0.7 percent to 91.5 million tonnes. Sustained dry conditions, during the first part of the year, lingering from 2012, have affected pastures in central and western parts of the country. Furthermore, a prolonged unfavourable milk/feed price ratio has caused some farmers to cut back on output and may lead to a reduction in cow numbers. Production in Canada is set to remain stable at 8.5 million tonnes, within the limits set by the milk quota system.

In Europe, EU milk production is forecast to remain unchanged in 2013 at 156 million tonnes, as improved milk yields per cow continue to compensate for reduced cow numbers. Output within the EU suffered from exceptionally bad weather conditions in some areas in 2012. It was both unusually dry, especially in Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria, and excessively wet, in the case of Ireland, the United Kingdom and northern France – both had a negative impact on grass production for silage, as well as yields of feed grains grown on-farm. This raised the cost of milk production, as affected producers had to purchase high-priced grains and concentrate, which coincided with falling milk prices. EU production quotas were raised by 1 percent in April, in preparation for their abolition in 2015; however, the experience of recent years has shown that most countries have failed to fully utilise their quota, with the short-fall for the Union overall being around 5 percent. Milk production in the Russian Federation is anticipated to show a second year of modest increase in 2013, following declines in 2010 and 2011, supported by improved profitability and a concomitant slowing in dairy herd contraction. In neighbouring Ukraine and Belarus, milk production is on an upward trend, subsequent to a prolonged period of decline. In both countries, government incentives are provided to promote farm-level efficiency and the use of modern technology; however, as in the case of the neighbouring EU, producers have faced similar challenges in maintaining profitability in the face of increases in the cost of feed and reduced prices for milk.

In Oceania, sustained high prices for dairy products on the international market and associated levels of profitability have stimulated the dairy sector; however, both Australia and New Zealand experienced prolonged hot, dry weather at the start of 2013, which led to a sharp fall-off in milk production. In New Zealand, up until January, output was running 6 percent ahead of the 2011/12 season, itself a record, but subsequently plummeted. As a result, the current season is expected close slightly down, at 19.6 million tonnes. Abundant rain in April helped pastures re-establish themselves and set the basis for a reasonable start to the 2013/2014 season. In Australia, the 2012/13 milk year opened with less than favourable, cool and wet weather, only to experience widespread hot and dry conditions at the start of 2013. Consequently, for 2012/13, milk output is forecast to be moderately lower than the previous season, at 9.3 million tonnes. As a consequence of the unfavourable climatic conditions, herd rebuilding in both Australia and New Zealand was temporarily suspended in 2012/2013.

[*]Excluding trade between the EU Member States. From 2007: EU-27

TRADE

Trade to grow in 2013, but limited export availability drives up international dairy prices

World trade in dairy products is expected to continue to expand in 2013 sustained by strong import demand, although supply limitations are anticipated to place a brake on growth. Consequently, trade is forecast to grow by 1.9 percent, compared with an average of 7 percent in recent years, to reach 54.7 million tonnes of milk equivalent. Demand remains firm and, in the context of limited supplies, has led to a substantial rise in prices during the first part of the year. Asia will continue to be the main market for dairy products, accounting for some 54 percent of world imports. In 2013, imports are expected to rise in China, the United Arab Emirates, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Oman. Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand should also remain important markets, but the level of their imports is not expected to rise. Elevated international prices are projected to reduce imports by Africa as a whole. The principal importers that may be affected include Egypt, Algeria and Libya. A number of significant milk powder importing countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Mexico, Venezuela and Brazil, may also see purchases constrained by high prices. Finally, imports by the Russian Federation are anticipated to increase, stimulated by strong demand for butter and cheese, while those of the United States are forecast to be unchanged.

International prices are expected to remain at elevated levels until at least the latter part of 2013, as limited growth in milk production and strong demand cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future availability of milk products. In this context, exporting countries will have to strike a delicate balance between maintaining core markets and pursuing long-term market development, and adjusting their product mix to ensure maximum returns. For imports, some lower income countries and those that purchase milk products for social programmes may reduce the scale of their acquisitions in the light of elevated prices. In general, processing industries which rely on imports are likely to seek means of substituting less expensive ingredients, such as whey powder or vegetable fat, where possible. Furthermore, the elevated cost of imported products will provide a fillip to domestic milk production in many countries.

Whole milk powder (WMP) – Prices surge on supply concerns

World exports of WMP are projected to register only a small increase 2013, rising by 1 percent to 2.5 million tonnes. This compares with average annual growth of 6 percent in the previous three years. High international prices will lead many countries to re-evaluate their import needs, including the potential for substitution. Sustained demand is forecast for Asia, the main market. However, some importers in North Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean may limit or reduce purchases in the face of elevated prices. China is expected to retain its position as the principal importer of WMP and may see further expansion in purchases, although processors may also seek to utilize lower value ingredients, such as whey powder, where possible, for recombination. Elsewhere in Asia, increased purchases are expected for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Conversely, in Algeria and Venezuela, which are second and third, respectively in terms of world imports, social programmes are an important driving force behind demand, and the countries may see imports reduced as a result of budgetary restrictions. In Brazil, rising domestic production could lead to imports being displaced. Demand for WMP is very geographically diverse, stemming from its wide use in both the processing industry and for direct retail sale. As for the exporters, New Zealand, Belarus and Uruguay will supply most of the increase in trade, as restricted milk supplies and a move into producing other milk products are expected to curb WMP export availability from the EU, Australia and Argentina. As a group, the above six countries supply 85 percent of the international WMP market.

Skim milk powder (SMP) – Prices also up markedly

Trade in SMP is anticipated to record limited growth in 2013, rising by 1.5 percent to 1.9 million tonnes, and contrasting with an average annual increase of 11 percent for the previous three years. In the face of tight export availability, SMP prices have risen alongside those of WMP. Supplies of SMP to the world market are expected to be constrained, as manufacturers juggle with finite milk supplies. SMP is central to the milk processing industry in many countries and, as such, market demand is widespread. The principal markets are (in order of volume) Mexico, China, Indonesia, Algeria, the Philippines and Malaysia, followed by the Russian Federation, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Thailand. Overall demand is expected to remain firm in these markets; however, should the current high prices continue, this will inevitably affect the level of purchases. China, in particular, is anticipated to increase imports substantially, by 13 000 tonnes, although this would be less than the increment for 2012. Augmented purchases are also possible by (in order of volume) Mexico, Indonesia, Algeria and Malaysia. Conversely, imports by the Russian Federation may decline. Over 80 percent of world exports are supplied by (in order of volume) the EU, the United States, New Zealand and Australia. For 2013, much will depend on the coming season’s milk production in Oceania, as SMP production in the EU and the United States is anticipated to decrease as emphasis is placed on the production of other milk products. A new development, first evidenced in 2012, is India’s larger-scale participation as an exporter of SMP – supplying neighbouring Bangladesh and markets in the Near East and North Africa. Under current market conditions, and given the scale of India’s domestic dairy industry, there would be potential to expand its SMP exports during 2013.

Butter – Follows the milk powders higher

Trade in butter is forecast to grow by 2.7 percent in 2013, to 923 000 tonnes, based on increased sales by the EU, Belarus, Australia and the United States. Sales by New Zealand are foreseen to remain close to last year’s, as more emphasis is being placed on using milk for WMP and cheese production. At the same time, the country remains the world’s predominant supplier of butter, accounting for half of trade. Current high prices have created the opportunity for greater EU and United States participation in the international marketplace – as they have the possibility of drawing upon the substantial supplies available in their respective domestic markets. Demand for butter imports comes principally from Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Russian Federation, although, as with many other milk products, China has substantially increased purchases in recent years. Additionally, as a result of trading agreements, the EU is both an important butter importer (ranking fourth) and exporter (ranking second). Purchases by most of the main importing countries – the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Iran and China – may increase in 2013, while those of the EU are anticipated to be unchanged.

Cheese – Less volatile than other dairy commodities

Among the dairy commodities, cheddar cheese was least affected by the surge in international prices for milk products. Even in the case of a generic cheese, differences in taste, consumer preference and the use of branding mean that prices are not as volatile as for milk powder and butter fat, which are destined mainly for reconstitution and other processing and, thus, are not generally visible to the individual consumer. Trade in cheese is forecast to grow by 3 percent in 2013, to 2.7 million tonnes, sustained by robust import demand. However, the rate of increase is expected to be less than in recent years, as processors in the main exporting countries struggle to balance strong international demand for dairy products with limited supplies of milk. The international cheese market is the most difficult dairy market to classify. One apparent anomaly is that a number of major cheese producing and exporting countries are also important importers, including (in order of volume) the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the EU, Australia and Switzerland. Most often, purchases by this group of countries reflect import quotas under trade agreements and also the highly specific nature of some cheeses, including those with restrictions on the use of their names and areas of origin. Another group of the most significant importing countries, which includes the Russian Federation, Japan, Mexico, the Republic of Korea and Iraq, focuses more on industrial cheese, both for direct consumption and for use by the processing industry, although each market has its specific requirements and preferences. Overall, four importers, the Russian Federation, Japan, the United States and Saudi Arabia, account for almost 45 percent of purchases. The EU remains the major cheese exporter, supplying 30 percent of world trade, not including the substantial amount of cheese that is traded among the EU countries themselves. Other important exporters are Saudi Arabia, New Zealand, the United States, Australia, Egypt, Belarus, Switzerland, the Ukraine, Argentina, Uruguay and Turkey.

FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS

GLOBAL FISH ECONOMY IN 2013

Overview

The lingering economic crisis in the major seafood importing markets of northern Europe and North America has contributed to generally sluggish growth in seafood imports, although with some exceptions where demand for specific products has remained strong, namely salmon and tuna. Fluctuating wild catch landings, mid-season quota adjustments and major incidences of disease in aquaculture facilities have contributed to supply uncertainty. As a result, the direction of international prices and import volumes of fish and fishery products in 2013 remains unclear.

A combination of chronic disease in Southeast Asian shrimp farms and low wild shrimp catches continue to put upward pressure on shrimp prices. Despite record high prices, demand for tuna remains strong in the US and EU. Canned tuna prices are expected to remain stable in the face of low supply relative to demand. Cephalopod prices have stabilized, despite falling or weak demand in key markets of Europe and Japan. Tilapia demand in Europe and North America remains stable with good supplies from China, the main producer, while farmed tilapia production has expanded in some developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean to meet growing domestic demand. Abundant supplies of cod and a parallel drop in cod prices in European markets have had negative effects on cod fishers and producers who find cod farming less profitable.

Weak demand for seabass and seabream in key markets and credit problems in southern Europe encouraged some producers to harvest early, resulting in smaller-sized fish reaching the markets. Strong salmon demand, despite rising salmon prices, implies a structural shift in consumer demand, which is positive for salmon producers. Mackerel demand increased in response to the lower prices last season, and price is expected to rise, although gradually, in 2013. The situation remains difficult in the mackerel fishery due to overcapacity of fishing fleets and the recent failure to regulate the South Pacific jack mackerel fishery, which is the world’s largest fishery. Pressure on fishmeal prices remained strong in 2012 as a result of South American supply constraints in an El Niño year, coupled with strong demand in European and Asian markets. Despite the economic crisis, firm consumer demand for carnivorous fish (which feed on other fish species) and shrimp continue to support fish oil prices. Scallop catch levels in the United States for 2013 are expected to drop by 30–35 percent, which could lead to rising prices in the main import markets. Oyster prices are expected to remain strong in 2013, after more than doubling over the last three years.

[1]Data source: Norwegian Seafood Council

REVIEW BY FISH PRODUCT

Shrimp

Shrimp prices continue to rise, given expectations of lower supplies due to delays in the start of the season in Southeast Asia. Disease stands as a major issue for the shrimp market in the coming year. Shrimp farmers in Thailand sustained heavy losses due to early mortality syndrome (EMS), a continuation of EMS problems experienced across Southeast Asian – from China to Malaysia – in 2012 EMS affected 80 percent of shrimp farms in the Mekong Delta with a major impact on Vietnamese producers. News that a research team at the University of Arizona has identified the pathogen causing the syndrome may pave the way for a recovery of the Southeast Asian shrimp industry. On the other hand, the industry also has to overcome the problem of the presence of high levels of the antioxidant ethoxyquin used in fishmeal fed to shrimp. The new Japanese regulations introducing maximum levels of ethoxyquin, have resulted in quarantine of shrimp from Viet Nam and India and restricted their exports to Japan.

Source: NMFS; GLOBEFISH

Source: GLOBEFISH

The supply of vannamei and black tiger shrimp from Indian farmers is also expected to be lower due to conservative production decisions and the lack of brood stock. White spot disease in Latin America is affecting production. Meanwhile, wild shrimp landings along its Pacific coast have been disappointing.

Price pressure from low global supply has been slightly offset by the weak yen impacting Japanese import demand, a major import market. Import demand from the United States and European markets has been sporadic, making for uncertain demand and supply conditions in 2013. Given the recent decision by the US International Trade Commission to investigate shrimp production in seven countries, namely China, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam, the future for US demand is uncertain, as countervailing duties and higher import prices could be applied. The main EU markets, Spain and Italy, saw sharp drops in demand, at 15.4 percent and 12.4 percent respectively. With the EU’s new Generalized System of Preferences to be implemented in January 2014, the tariff on Argentine shrimp imports will no longer receive specialized treatment in the EU market and will increase to 12 percent from the current rate of 4.5 percent. This price rise will likely put further strain on EU import demand and negatively impact Argentine shrimp producers.

In Southeast Asia, the combination of chronic disease in farms and low wild catches will continue to put upward pressure on prices. However, import volumes are expected to fall in all major markets, especially the United States and EU-27, causing uncertainty about the future of shrimp prices in 2013.

Tuna

The sashimi tuna market in Japan remained firm in early 2013, mainly in anticipation of the spring festival in April/May. The United States market for non-canned tuna also remains stable, despite the high price of USD 2 000 per tonne. In early 2013, the EU agreed to increase the annual import quota for pre-cooked tuna loins to 22 000 tonnes from 15 000 tonnes at zero duty for the next three years. European canners, mostly from Spain, quickly snapped up almost all the allotted duty-free quota in the first quarter of 2013, mainly for supplies from Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Indonesia and the Philippines. Evidence shows that the record high tuna prices are not hindering import demand in the major markets. However, frozen yellow fin tuna steaks and loins treated with carbon monoxide (CO) and exported to the US market could face a tariff charge in the future, if US Customs reclassifies CO-treated tuna as a prepared or preserved product. If so, the tariff would escalate from the current zero tariff for raw fish or fillets up to 12.5 percent, with negative effects on imports.

Tuna supplies to Asian canners are down this year, leading to rising prices for canned tuna. The US remains the largest buyer of Thai canned tuna, despite the fact that US canned tuna imports had fallen over the years and remain flat, as does EU imports. Eco-labeled canned tuna, indicating pole-and-line fisheries and absence of fish aggregating devices (FAD-free fishing), are expected to become available in European and North American supermarkets later this year. This may lead to a rebound in demand for canned tuna in these eco-friendly markets, although overall volumes from pole-and-line fisheries are limited. EU importers are also looking for alternative suppliers of canned tuna with lower import duties. For example, ACP countries such as Mauritius, Cote d’Ivoire and Papua New Guinea can export to the EU at zero tariffs. Canned tuna prices are expected to remain strong in the face of low supply relative to demand.

Groundfish

Abundant supplies of cod and falling prices in European markets have boded badly for fishermen and cod farmers who find that cod farming is becoming less profitable. While the increasing supply may be a sign of successful management of cod catch fisheries, it could also indicate the need for structural adjustments in the cod industry to reach a stable equilibrium in the market. From an optimistic point of view, it could also present an opportunity to market white fish as an alternate meat, given its relatively lower price, and to increase overall consumption of white fish. Hake prices are following cod in a downward trend, along with other substitute white fish. Haddock prices, currently lower than cod, are likely to catch up as haddock landings are not expected to increase in the near future.

Seabass and seabream

Weak demand for seabass and seabream in key markets and credit problems encouraged some producers to harvest early, resulting in smaller sized fish reaching the markets. This has implications for future supplies and may put upward pressure on prices in 2013. This price pressure is in addition to normal price rises for seabass and seabream in spring and early summer due to the natural growth cycle of the species. Greece and Italy are integral players in the production and distribution chain of seabass and seabream, and the current economic climate in Southern Europe is squeezing credit available to producers, importers and distributers. Under these circumstances, Turkey has an opportunity to emerge as a major supplier. Although import demand is growing in Russia, the UK and the US, this has not been enough to offset falling demand in traditional markets of Southern Europe, and may lead farmers to cut future production.

Cephalopods

The lingering effects of the global economic crisis are impacting sales of cephalopods in Europe, where imports are down. Squid prices in Europe declined significantly towards the end of 2012 and remain stagnant in 2013. Squid prices in Japan remain stable, despite low inventories of squid in cold storage. Octopus prices have stabilized in the European and Japanese markets and this stability is expected to continue. Cuttlefish prices in Japan remain high.

Pangasius

Global production of pangasius will most likely slow as a result of problems facing Viet Nam, the world’s largest producer, where the current market price is below farm costs and falling ex-farm prices. Viet Nam has shifted its policy from increasing farming areas to focusing on more efficient and sustainable farm management. The introduction of improved traceability systems should have a positive long-term impact on Viet Nam’s exports. Pangasius demand remains mixed, with slow import growth in the Americas, stable imports in Asian markets and declining imports in Europe. The latter is somewhat surprising, given the competitive pricing of pangasius. However it could indicate that the extreme focus on prices may have hurt the image of the product.

Tilapia

China remains the world’s largest producer of tilapia and the largest supplier to the European market. Tilapia production continues to interest some countries in Africa, Asia and Latin American for supplying emerging domestic demand. European demand for freshwater fillets is currently stable but expected to increase over time. US imports of tilapia, especially frozen fillets, increased in 2012 after a low season in 2011, but dipped again slightly during the first quarter of 2013. As the biggest market for Chinese tilapia, the US absorbed 60 percent of Chinese exports in 2012. Availability of certified tilapia as of August 2012 is projected to stimulate demand for tilapia fillets in European and North American markets where consumer demand for private certification of seafood products is on the rise. As expected, seasonal Asian demand for tilapia peaked in spring 2013 for Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations and Lent celebrations in the Philippines.

Salmon

Despite a 13 percent increase in farmed Atlantic and Pacific salmon production between 2011 and 2012, salmon prices continue to recover from the very low levels reached in 2011. Strong demand in the face of rising salmon price implies a structural shift in consumer demand, which is good news for salmon producers. Production is expected to increase by only 2–3 percent in 2013, and prices are expected to remain high. Some added supply is foreseen for the second half of the year, but it will be less than previously expected, due to production problems in Chile and Norway.

Small pelagics

Recent changes in mackerel migratory patterns in the waters of Iceland and Greenland have contributed to ongoing disputes over quota allocations among Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Norway and the EU. Recent negotiations to regulate the South Pacific jack mackerel, the world’s largest fishery, also failed. Major quota reductions anticipated in 2013 will lead to reduced supplies of mackerel and rising prices. Fishmeal producers, expressing concern about sustainability of the Peruvian anchovy fishery, are calling for reduced quotas in 2013. Herring exports from Norway, the main supplier of frozen herring and herring fillets, fell 50 percent between 2010 and 2012. Expectations of further reductions in herring supplies will put further pressure on the already high prices.

Fishmeal and fish oil

Pressure on fishmeal prices remained strong in 2012 as a result of Latin American supply constraints in an El Niño year coupled with strong demand in European and especially Asian markets. Fishmeal prices reached high levels not seen since the first quarter of 2010 and carried over into the first quarter of 2013. Strong global demand for animal feeds for terrestrial livestock helps support fishmeal prices. Fish oil prices have climbed steadily since February 2009 in response to strong growth in demand for both high-value aquaculture and human consumption. Despite the economic crisis, strong consumer demand for carnivorous fish and shrimp continue to support fish oil prices. Although human consumption of fish oil is small as compared with aquaculture utilization, future growth in direct human consumption of fish oils is expected to contribute to rising fish oil demand. Coupled with weak supplies in 2012, fish oil prices are expected to continue to rise in 2013.

Source: GLOBEFISH AN 12201

*Estimate

Source: IFFO

*These figures refer only to IFFO member countries

Source: IFFO

*These figures refer only to IFFO member countries

Bivalves

Scallop catch levels in the US for 2013 are expected to drop by 30–35 percent, which could see prices rising in the main import markets. In response to decreased US landings, US imports of scallops from Peru are expected to increase in 2013. China is emerging as the new leading market for high-end shellfish products, with Chinese demand for oysters and mussels growing as much as 20 percent per year. Oyster prices are expected to remain strong in 2013, after more than doubling over the last three years.

QUINOA

(Article by Ekaterina Krivonos, Economist, Trade and Markets Division, FAO)[1]

The year 2013 has been declared “International Year of Quinoa” by the United Nations General Assembly, a tribute to a little-known agricultural product with outstanding nutritional and agronomic properties grown almost exclusively in the Andes. Quinoa has been cultivated as a subsistence crop by indigenous Andean populations for thousands of years. Although similar in appearance to cereals, quinoa is an annual crop more closely related to beet or spinach. Its exceptional nutritional value, combined with its ability to grow in dry conditions and its resilience to climatic conditions, make it a potentially important crop from a food security perspective.

The unique characteristics of quinoa

Quinoa is the only food crop that contains all the essential amino acids, trace elements and vitamins, and is also gluten-free. Although not a cereal, it is consumed in a similar way to rice and other staple grains. Quinoa also has a higher content of all important minerals than maize, rice or wheat (except sodium), and contains large amounts of folate. It is also richer in protein and mono-saturated fat.

On the production side, quinoa has an extraordinary ability to adapt to different climatic conditions and agro-ecological zones. It can grow in relative humidity varying from 40 percent to 88 percent. It also is grown at altitudes from sea level up to 4000 meters, and at temperatures ranging from -4°C to +35°C (FAO, 2012). It is also highly water efficient and can produce acceptable yields with rainfall as low as 100–200 mm per year. Recognizing the significance of all of these properties in eradicating hunger and malnutrition, with Bolivia’s proposal, the United Nations General Assembly declared 2013 the International Year of the Quinoa.

Although still relatively unknown in many parts of the world, quinoa is becoming increasingly popular in international markets, especially among consumers in developed countries in North America and Europe. Together, the United States, Canada and the European Union imported 30 500 tonnes of quinoa in 2012, three times as much as they did in 2007.

Production trends

Most quinoa production comes from the Andean region of South America. Bolivia and Peru, the leading suppliers, together account for over 90 percent of world production. Chile and Ecuador are also traditional producers, although on a smaller scale. In recent years, quinoa cultivation has expanded from South America to the United States and, to a lesser extent, to Europe (Denmark, England, Germany, Italy, France and Spain) and Africa (Kenya and Mali). In the traditional producing areas, quinoa has been cultivated mainly as a subsistence crop by the indigenous populations, especially by women, who play a particularly important role in its production and marketing.

Source: National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, USDA

Bolivia accounted for 45 percent of global quinoa production in 2011. Production in the country has grown steadily since the mid-1990s, with annual growth rates averaging 4.5 percent between 1995 and 2011. According to Bolivia’s Ministry of Rural Development and Land, the country’s quinoa output expanded from 38 257 tonnes in 2011 to 50 566 tonnes in 2012, although this very high estimate remains provisional, pending the collection of hard data on areas planted. If confirmed, Bolivia would have overtaken Peru as the major quinoa producer. Oruro and Potosí, Bolivia’s main quinoa producing regions, each produce a 40 percent share of the national quinoa output, while La Paz produces the remaining 20 percent. Since 2011, Bolivia has exported approximately half of all the quinoa it produces.

Peru’s quinoa production has expanded at more than 7 percent per year since the mid-1990s. It was the world’s leading quinoa producer from 1997 to 2011, and accounted for 48 percent of global production in 2011. In 2012, preliminary official estimates put production at 44 207 tonnes, which made the country slide to second place behind Bolivia. Most quinoa in Peru is grown in the southern highlands, particularly the Puno region, which accounts for 80 percent of national output (Peru Ministry of Agriculture, 2012) Although most Peruvian quinoa is consumed in the domestic market, its exports have grown steadily since 2007, accounting for 23.2 percent of production in 2012.

Sources: INE (Bolivia), Ministry of Rural Development and Land (Bolivia) and Ministry of Agriculture (Peru).

In Chile, most of the crop is grown in the Tarapacá region, under climatic conditions similar to the highlands of Bolivia and Peru. Recently, production expanded to central regions. The country’s production remains small, declining from 1 448 tonnes in 2011 to an estimated 1 007 tonnes in 2012. In Ecuador, Chimborazo Province accounts for 70–80 percent of total output. The volume of Ecuador’s quinoa production was estimated at a modest 712 tonnes in 2012.

The United States and a few countries in Europe, Asia and Africa have taken up quinoa cultivation in recent years. In the United States, the crop has been grown on a small scale since the mid-1980s, principally in the Colorado Rockies, but now expanding to the western states of California, Oregon, Nevada and Washington, albeit in small volumes. In absence of official data, quinoa output in the country has been gauged at some 3 000 tonnes per year (FAO, 2011). Other emerging producers include Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, Italy, India, Kenya, Morocco and the Netherlands. These countries are already producing quinoa or carrying out research and agronomic trials to establish commercial production of the crop (FAO, 2012).

Crop prospects in 2013 and beyond

In Bolivia, current estimates by the Ministry of Rural Development and Land show the area planted with quinoa in recent years has increased dramatically – from 64 789 ha in the 2010/11 season (the last year for which official figures by the National Statistics Institute of Bolivia are available) to 104 365 ha in 2012/13 – a 61 percent increase over two years. Given the expansion in sown area, the Bolivian government expects quinoa production to increase from 50 566 tonnes in 2012 to 58 040 tonnes in 2013. However, given a lack of firm area and production estimates from remote sensing or other crop monitoring methods, the numbers for 2012 and 2013 are still tentative. Peru reported planting 45 323 ha with quinoa in the 2012/13 season, 8.1 percent above the previous year. Assuming no changes in yields, the 2013 crop could reach 47 772 tonnes.

Given the nutritional value and strong export potential of quinoa, the governments of the main quinoa producing countries in the Andean region have made development of the sector national priorities, with several announcing strategic plans and investment programmes for quinoa. For instance, Peru’s Ministry of Agriculture launched a strategic plan for quinoa production for the period 2013-2021 and is projecting to put 64 000 ha under quinoa by 2016. It also expects yields to increase from 1.15 tonnes to 1.50 tonnes per hectare, so as to support an output of 96 000 tonnes annually by 2016.[2] In Oruro, Bolivia’s major producing region, the regional government announced in April 2013 an investment of USD1.8 million to boost quinoa production. Ecuador’s Ministry of Agriculture also put forward an ambitious plan to expand the area cultivated from the estimated 1 500 ha to 10 000 ha in five years, and to raise annual production from the 712 tonnes reported in 2012 to 6 818 tonnes by 2018.

* The estimate for Chile is obtained by applying 2007 yield level to the annual area planted.

** projections

Sources: FAOSTAT and official data from national sources, including INE (Bolivia), Ministry of Rural Development and Land (Bolivia), Ministry of Agriculture, Oficina de Estudios de Política Agrícola (ODEPA) (Chile), Ministry of Agriculture (Ecuador) and Ministry of Agriculture (Peru).

Evolution in global trade and prices

Until the year 2000, the volume of global trade in quinoa was modest, at less than 2 000 tonnes per year. Since then, world exports have expanded rapidly, especially from 2005 to 2012, when they grew eightfold,[3] from approximately 5 000 tonnes in 2005 to 40 256 tonnes in 2012. In 2012, 64 percent of the total was supplied by Bolivia, followed by Peru with 26 percent. Bolivia’s exports grew steadily from 10 585 tonnes in 2007 to reach 25 899 tonnes in 2012. In the same period, the value of quinoa exports grew sixfold: from USD13.1 million to USD78.9 million. Peru registered even stronger export growth, in particular after 2009, mostly in response to dynamic demand from the United States. Peru’s quinoa shipments increased from 1 347 tonnes, valued at USD1.8 million, in 2007, to 10 275 tonnes, valued at USD29.9 million, in 2012, with an average annual growth in export earnings of 76 percent.

* No data are available for the countries other than Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru prior to 2012

Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) and Central Bank of Ecuador

United States stands as the third largest exporter of quinoa, shipping 8 percent of the world export estimate in 2012. However, of the 3 356 tonnes exported (mostly to Canada), only 728 tonnes were produced in the United States, with the remaining corresponding to re-exported quinoa. If these re-exports are not considered, Bolivia and Peru supplied approximately 96 percent of the global market in 2012, the remaining corresponding to Ecuador and the United States.

The United States is, by large, the world’s major quinoa importer, accounting for about 64 percent of combined exports from Bolivia and Peru in 2012. The same year, the European Union, which ranks second, took 19 percent of overall shipments from Bolivia and Peru. Most quinoa enters the European market through France and the Netherlands (Table 3).

* Source: Bolivia and Peru Customs through Global Trade Atlas (GTA)

The fact that the United States was the main market for Bolivian quinoa in 2012 is in stark contrast with 2007, when the majority of exports were destined to the EU (Figure 3).

Export prices of quinoa, measured by the unit value of exports, increased substantially in 2008 and 2009, stabilizing in subsequent years. In 2012, the unit value of exports from Bolivia and Peru reached USD3 047 per tonne and USD2 910 per tonne, respectively, more than double their 2007 levels.

Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA)

Source: Bolivia Customs through Global Trade Atlas (GTA)

Source: Bolivia and Peru Customs through Global Trade Atlas (GTA)

Source: FAOSTAT, Global Trade Atlas (GTA), TradeMap, and WDI

Note: Peru’s quinoa trade datais only available from 2006.

Consumption in Bolivia and Peru

In the Andean countries, most quinoa was traditionally consumed domestically and, for the most part, within the locations where it was produced. However, with exports from both Bolivia and Peru growing vigorously, the share of production that is exported has increased dramatically in the past five years – in Peru from only 4.2 percent in 2007 to 23.2 percent in 2012 and, in Bolivia, from 37.5 percent to 51.2 percent in the same period.

Notwithstanding the dynamic production growth, the fast pace of exports has meant domestic availabilities have fallen in Bolivia and Peru since the mid-2000s. In Bolivia, total consumption, calculated as production net of exports, is estimated to have dropped from 22 000 tonnes in 2005 to 17 600 tonnes in 2007, translating into a falling per capita intake from 2.4 kg to 1.9 kg over the period. From 2007 to 2010, aggregate consumption appears to have rebounded, reaching 20 600 tonnes in 2010, equivalent to 2.1 kg per person, per year, but falling again in 2011 to 1.8 kg per person, per year. If the current production estimate for 2012 is confirmed, per capita consumption in Bolivia would have recovered to some 2.4 kg, although still less than the 2.6 kg consumed in 2005. In Peru, domestic availabilities could only be estimated from 2006. Based on the data available, consumption per capita has been relatively low, fluctuating around 1.0–1.2 kg between 2006 and 2011.

Emerging issues

As quinoa production and trade systems are undergoing profound changes, reflecting a shift from a traditional crop, primarily produced for own consumption, to a globally traded commodity, several issues have emerged that require attention. First is the question of whether traditional quinoa producers will remain the main beneficiaries of the crop’s growing popularity in the coming years. There are at least 130 000 small-scale quinoa growers in South America (FAO, 2012), The majority belong to poor households, with women directly involved in the crop production, processing and marketing. In Bolivia, some 55 000 farmers produce quinoa on an irregular basis, primarily for their own consumption, 13 000 farmers produce quinoa permanently for their own consumption and for the market, and 2 000 farmers produce quinoa mainly for the market (FAO, 2011). In Peru, quinoa is grown by approximately 60 000 small producers, who are mostly subsistence farmers. These farmers are deeply affected by the swift changes in global supply and demand for quinoa, and generally lack the instruments to respond to the challenges and opportunities arising from the growing world demand. Thus, while quinoa is still produced mostly by smallholder farmers in the Andean countries, this might change rapidly in the future, as many commercial farms in the Andean countries and elsewhere are responding to the surge of demand and investing in the crop. Therefore, the question arises as to whether smallholder farmers will continue to dominate the quinoa market or will face increasing competition from larger commercial farms, with the risk of becoming marginalized.

A second concern has to do with the level of prices that quinoa producers may receive over the medium term. Since the mid-2000s, the strong growth in revenues generated by quinoa exports has benefitted the economies in the producing countries as a whole, as well as traditional quinoa growers, who have seen producer prices rise rapidly. For instance, in Peru, producer prices doubled in real terms from 2008 to 2009, reaching Nuevo Sol 3.10 (approximately USD1.1) per kg in 2011, while the export unit price was USD3.2 per kg – meaning that Peruvian producers captured approximately one-third of the export price. So far, strong world import demand and the relatively thin supplies available for trade have defined the quinoa market as a “seller” market. As a result, producers hold significant power in the transactions, able to reap better prices from the exporting agents. With production expanding, this state of play may change rapidly, which could eventually trim much of the benefits currently reaped by Andean quinoa producers.

From the government policy perspective, it will be important in the coming years to guide and support the process of reorientation of the sector from a traditional, subsistence crop to an export-oriented cash product, so as to ensure that quinoa growers and their families benefit from the dynamic world demand. Additional measures are needed to help smallholder farmers realize the commercial potential of their product by encouraging joint marketing actions through producer organizations, providing technical assistance and market information, and ensuring fair competition within marketing channels.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture of Peru: http://frenteweb.minag.gob.pe/sisca/?mod=consulta_cult

Note: Consumer prices are the prices in the town of Oruro. Producer prices are the prices in the Challapata market. Both locations are in Oruro Province.

Source: INE, Bolivia and Fundación Valles / Servicio de Información y Análisis de Mercados

A final concern relates to the possible negative impacts of surging local prices on the nutritional status of the indigenous Andean populations. Because producer prices have increased along with export prices, poor households have been enticed to replace quinoa with less expensive, but nutritionally inferior, food products, such as bread, pasta or rice. For instance, in Bolivia, the nominal quinoa retail prices in Oruro, one of the main producing regions, increased by 80 percent from April 2008 to April 2009 and remained at Bs 22 (USD3.1) per kg until September 2012. From then on, domestic prices increased further and reached Bs 24 in January 2013. By then, producers received Bs 8 per kg, which was one-third of the price paid by consumers. By March 2013, the quinoa retail price stood at Bs 27 per kg, more than double its level in April 2008. During the same period, the price of bread remained unchanged and the price of rice actually declined by over 10 percent.[4] The change in the relative food prices is very likely to have prompted most households to cut quinoa intake (either by selling more of their production or buying less from the market) in favour of these other basic food products.

However, the implications of such consumption shift for the food and nutrition security of the indigenous Andean populations are not necessarily negative, as they depend on the relative importance of quinoa in their diets, the revenues generated by quinoa’s sales and how the farmers spend any additional income.

For example, looking at the relative importance of quinoa in the Bolivian diet, Oruro is the only Bolivian province that considers quinoa in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). As such, the crop is assigned a weight of only 0.6 percent in the food CPI, compared with 13.2 percent for bread and 6.4 percent for rice. However, rather than an actual low contribution of quinoa to the diet, this low weight probably reflects the fact that most of the quinoa consumed is produced by the household itself with little purchased from the market. On the other hand, at the national level, quinoa per capita consumption in Bolivia is estimated at about 2 kg per year, highlighting the relatively low importance of the crop for the average Bolivian and suggesting that, on the aggregate, the nutritional effects of substitution of other food for quinoa might have been limited.

This does not exclude the possibility that specific population groups in the Altiplano, where quinoa is an important part of the local diet, may have suffered from the dietary shift. Thus, although most quinoa smallholder farmers have likely benefited from the expansion in trade and rising producer prices, the longer term implications of switching towards nutritionally inferior foods remains a public policy concern and a topic under investigation by various national and international organizations.

Outlook

Quinoa is still a relatively new product in the international markets, with vast potential for production and trade expansion. World demand is expected to keep growing vigorously in the coming years, driven primarily by developed countries, where expenditure on healthier and natural foods is on an upward trend. In other parts of the world, there is interesting potential for introducing quinoa as a new crop, given its resilience and low water requirements, and several governments have expressed interest in exploring this option.

In the future, quinoa could play a more important role in the global food system, given its adaptability to different agro-ecological regions and superior nutritional qualities. However, in the short term, the high price of this product, which has thus far catered to the niche market of health-conscious consumers in high-income countries, will preclude the expansion of consumption in poor countries. Given the current export price of over USD3 000 per tonne, quinoa cannot compete with other food crops such as rice, which is quoted approximately five times lower on international markets. In the short run, the growing consumption in developed countries will continue to be satisfied by exports from Bolivia and Peru. In the longer term, productivity increases are expected to take place not only in the Andean producing countries but also in the new producing areas, where investments are being made to cultivate the crop for commercial purposes. The current plans to expand quinoa production are expected to translate into much larger world supplies and declining prices at the producer, consumer and international levels, which may alter the current dynamics driving the crop. However, it remains to be seen whether quinoa will ever become a major and world-wide staple.

References:

FAO (2011) “Quinoa: An ancient crop to contribute to world food security”, FAO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, July 2011 http://www.fao.org/alc/file/media/pubs/2011/cultivo_quinua_en.pdf

FAO (2012) “Celebrating the International Year of Quinoa: A future Sown Thousands of Years Ago”, Concept Note, Bioversity and FAO, June 2012

Peru Ministry of Agriculture (2012) http://agroaldia.minag.gob.pe/biblioteca/download/pdf/manuales-boletines/quinua/quinua2012.pdf

[1]The author would like to thank the staff of FAO offices in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru who supplied valuable information and data obtained from Ministries of Agriculture and other national sources.

[2]Information provided to FAO by the Ministry of Agriculture of Peru, Department of Agricultural Competitiveness.

[3]Based on data from FAOSTAT and Global Trade Atlas (GTA). There is some data discrepancy between what countries report as imports from the various origins and what the exporting countries report as exports to the various destinations. To estimate global exports we use export data from the main producing countries. The reason for choosing reported exports over imports is twofold. First, quinoa was introduced in the international trade nomenclature only in 2012, when it was assigned a separate six digit code in the Harmonized System. Prior to 2012, importing countries were not reporting imports of quinoa as a separate product, while exporting countries recorded their quinoa exports using their national customs classification,. Second, some countries have not reported any quinoa imports in 2012, while they in fact may have imported some. For example, neither Ecuador, Mexico nor Uruguay reported quinoa imports, while customs data from Peru shows exports to these countries. As a result, global imports could be subestimated if only importers’ statistics are used. Overall, exporter statistics appear to be more consistent and reliable.

[4]Source: INE, Bolivia (http://www.ine.gob.bo/ipc/ipcprecios.aspx)

COMMODITY HEDGE FUNDS IN RETREAT?

(Article by Ann Berg, Senior Commodity Analyst)

(The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)

Once admired for turning profits year after year by riding the ups and downs of market waves, commodity hedge funds, it seems, have lost their momentum. For two years in a row, after enjoying double digit returns as high as 40 percent, commodity hedge funds have shown negative results. According to Newedge Index tracking fund, commodity hedge funds, including those focused in agriculture, registered slightly negative returns in 2011 and, in 2012, those returns fell to minus 3.7 percent. Poor performance led investors to withdraw 20 percent of their moneys from these funds last year.

Commodity hedge funds have existed since 1979, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US regulator charged with overseeing all futures trading, required funds to register as either Commodity Trading Advisors or Commodity Pool Operators. These funds solicited customer moneys to trade in the US futures markets, using a variety of bullish or bearish strategies with the sole aim of maximizing returns for themselves and their customers. However, up until 2000, these funds were slow to take off.

The investment public generally viewed commodity futures trading as volatile and risky, and suspected that the trading pits in Chicago or New York City, then the dominant global futures trading centers, were biased in favor of the exchange members. After all, throughout the 1980s and 1990s, these exchanges maintained their original non-profit membership structure, and upheld a mission of “enhancing membership opportunity”.

Market manipulation was also a recurrent theme. In 1976, a default on the potato contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange ended with CFTC charging both longs and shorts with manipulation. Three years later, perceived “corners” in the silver and wheat markets at the largest exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), prompted both the exchange and the CFTC to declare emergencies. In 1989, when a large exporter took ownership of virtually all of the soybeans in the Chicago and Toledo delivery houses, causing soybean futures to soar, the CFTC revoked the exporter’s hedge status. The CBOT acted by declaring an emergency and ordered traders holding positions in July soybeans to trade for “liquidation only.”[1] The subsequent price collapse resulted in years of recriminations. Farmers staged tractor protests around the famed CBOT building and lodged several lawsuits against the trading establishment over a ten-year period.

From 2000 onwards, a cascade of events transformed commodities futures trading from an arcane business into a mainstream activity. Legislative events in the US were pivotal in this transformation: in 2000, the US Congress passed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act and the Graham, Leach, Bliley Act. The former exempted the over-the-counter [OTC] market and energy futures, such as crude oil, from CFTC oversight. The latter repealed the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act, dissolving the barriers that had separated banking, insurance and brokering for 70 years. These two acts unleashed a flood of new players and money into the commodity futures arena and created pressure on the CBOT, then the primary agricultural exchange, to raise the speculative limits on its grain and oilseed contracts. Once restricted to 600 contracts (75 000 MT), these limits grew geometrically to as high as 22 000 contracts [2.8 million MT] by the middle of the decade.

When two renowned academics, Gary Gorton and Geert Rouwenhorst, wrote “Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures” in 2004, asserting that commodity futures were a distinct asset class and largely uncorrelated with equity markets, they turned commodity futures into an irresistible money magnet. Commodity index funds and similar vehicles such as commodity-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) attracted enormous investment interest. Commodity futures prices became a daily staple of financial news programmes, their prices streaming across the televised banners alongside equity prices. Unlike commodity hedge funds, the index funds and ETFs, defined as securities offerings, allowed for passive ownership of a basket of commodities by tracking the prices of the underlying futures contracts. Interest in commodities prices spread globally. The German-based Deutsche Bank launched a purely agricultural ETF in 2006, which today is the largest agricultural fund by market capitalization. No longer considered a form of gambling, commodity futures had achieved worthy status as a means for portfolio diversification.

Electronic trading rapidly deposed face-to-face pit trading throughout the 2000s, spurring an unprecedented increase in trade volumes. Instantaneous trade confirmations replaced the relay system of floor runners shuttling between pit broker and floor booth, which had sometimes delayed transaction reporting by an hour. Trading firms hired mathematicians to write algorithmic programmes that could trade without human intervention and arbitrage small price anomalies within milliseconds.

Major developments specifically drawing money into agricultural markets included US mandates for biofuel production that primarily involved distilling corn into ethanol, rising demand for animal protein spurred by emerging market growth, and disruptive climatic events. As the transformation of commodities futures from mundane hedging instruments to a must-have asset class neared completion, a global disaster loomed. The overhang of surplus grain stocks, which had been steadily decreasing for years, seemed to evaporate overnight. When FAO announced in 2007 that the stocks-to-use level in wheat would drop to the lowest in 30 years, agricultural futures exploded.

The 2007/2008 food crisis proved to be a money maker for the numerous hedge funds that rode the escalating prices of wheat, corn and soybeans to their highs. As prices fell, these funds exited most of their bullish bets by the end of 2008. In fact, in wheat, the commodity that had experienced the largest percentage gain, hedge funds had established a modest short position by October of the same year. However, the multiple food riots that erupted around the globe as a result of high prices drew unwelcome attention to the industry. A polarized debate commenced about the role of speculation and food prices, eliciting opinions from economists, financial journals, intergovernmental organizations, think tanks and, of course, the market participants. Most of those engaged in making money via speculation claimed that their trading activities were beneficial for markets – providing liquidity and aiding price discovery. Industry outsiders largely condemned speculation in foodstuffs as causing volatility, inflating prices and contributing to hunger. Essentially, without a scientific means for measuring the level of speculative “froth” in market-determined prices, the argument over speculation degenerated into a rigid reductionist stance of good versus bad.

The 2008 global financial crisis, followed by another round of high food prices in 2010/2011, prompted a reform movement on regulation of all derivatives transactions. When a corner in the London July 2010 cocoa contract by a single prominent hedge fund caused prices to soar and then collapse, it revealed that Europe had no regulatory system with regard to derivative transactions. US reform resulted in the passage of the Dodd Frank bill of 2010 while European reform was expressed in the principles of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), along with several implementing regulations such as European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). Following several complaints over the cocoa incident, NYSE-liffe, a self-regulatory organization (SRO), imposed speculative limits in its sugar, cocoa, coffee and feed wheat contracts. Reforms, particularly in the US, met with much resistance with regard to on-exchange futures transactions. The Dodd Frank Act’s mandate to the CFTC – imposing speculative position limits on 28 commodities – was rejected in court and remains contested. The Volcker Rule, which essentially banned proprietary trading by banks, has yet to be implemented, even though several banks have since closed their trading desks. Ironically, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) petition to the CFTC to raise speculative positions in agricultural contracts by as much as 80 percent met with the agency’s approval.[2]

Notwithstanding the muted effects of reform on agricultural futures markets, by 2011, the performance of the commodity hedge funds declined and their positioning in agricultural futures no longer seemed to be predictive of market trends. Examining the maize market in 2012, hedge funds seemed uncharacteristically stubborn in holding on to their long holdings following a price decrease between August and December of about USD45/MT. Most recently, hedge funds enlarged their long position in maize in anticipation of a bullish USDA planting intentions report. The long bet turned disastrous when, in March, the USDA announced potential record maize production for 2013, causing a two-day sell-off of about USD40/MT. According to the following week’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report, hedge funds liquidated about 80 000 contracts during this price rout. Even as prices rebounded, the long liquidation continued throughout April – as if funds were sounding a retreat from the sector. As of April, net long positions in all commodity futures had reportedly dropped to their lowest levels since 2006. Although these snapshots of market activity fail to capture the whole book of commodity hedge fund transactions, such as offsetting spreads or options trades, they do illustrate a change in hedge fund behavior and one that corresponds to declining performance.

Several analysts have suggested that the downturn in profitability parallels the approaching end of the “commodity supercycle”, citing a potential economic slowdown in China, which has been the most significant driver of all commodity demand since 2000. Agricultural contracts, such as grains and oilseeds, have appeared to be in a downturn since the second half of 2012. Soft commodities, such as coffee, sugar and cocoa which are less supply elastic owing to their extended growing cycles, have declined to multiyear lows. The industry itself however could unveil other explanations. Anecdotally, the hefty fee and profit taken by the fund (commonly referred to as “2 and 20”[3]) have soured customers who, besides paying annual fees, now find themselves saddled with 100 percent of the losses. Indeed, this trend is visible in the commodity index fund investment data which shows a 20 percent drawdown since April 2011, mirroring the level of withdrawal from hedge funds. Also, sophisticated algorithmic programmes, which were once uncommon and highly profitable, have now saturated the system. These programmes, especially those specializing in arbitraging market anomalies, might have been instrumental in reducing the level of price volatility. High volatility – peaking at 80 during the food crisis five years ago but declining to levels around 12–20 for most of the past year and a half – was most likely a significant factor in commodity hedge fund success in years past. As with most mature businesses, commodity hedge funds are finding profitability harder to come by. Finally, the sobering truth about the nature of commodity futures may have reemerged: they are not investments at all but risk-shifting instruments, always generating a loss for every gain.

[1]Trade for liquidation means that traders cannot initiate new positions in a particular futures contract and must sell any existing long positions or conversely buy back any existing short positions.

[2]The increase in speculative limits did not apply to spot month limits.

[3]“2 and 20” refers to an annual management fee of 2 percent and the fund’s share of the accrued profits of 20 percent.

* A collection of major grain policy developments starting in July 2010 is available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=grains

* A collection of major rice policy developments starting in January 2011 is available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=rice.

* A collection of major oilseed policy developments starting in January 2011 is available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Oilseeds,%20oils%20and%20meals.

* A collection of major sugar policy developments starting in January 2013 is also available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Sugar

* A collection of major meat policy developments starting in January 2011 is available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Meat

* A collection of major dairy policy developments starting in January 2012 is available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Milk,%20Dairy%20products

Statistical appendix tables

Appendix Table 1 (a) & (b) Cereal statistics

Appendix Table 2 (a) & (b) Wheat statistics

Appendix Table 3 (a) & (b) Coarse grains statistics

Appendix Table 4 (a) & (b) Maize statistics

Appendix Table 5 (a) & (b) Barley statistics

Appendix Table 6 (a) & (b) Sorghum statistics

Appendix Table 7 (a) & (b) Other Coarse grains statistics

Appendix Table 8 (a) & (b) Rice statistics

Appendix Table 9 Cereal supply and utilization in main exporting countries

Appendix Table 10 Total oilcrops statistics

Appendix Table 11 Total oils and fats statistics

Appendix Table 12 Total meals and cakes statistics

Appendix Table 13 Sugar statistics

Appendix Table 14 Total meat statistics

Appendix Table 15 Bovine meat statistics

Appendix Table 16 Ovine meat statistics

Appendix Table 17 Pigmeat statistics

Appendix Table 18 Poultry meat statistics

Appendix Table 19 Milk and milk products statistics

Appendix Table 20 Fish and fishery products statistics

Appendix Table 21 Selected international prices for wheat and coarse grains

Appendix Table 22 Wheat and maize futures prices

Appendix Table 23 Selected international prices for rice and price indices

Appendix Table 24 Selected international prices for oilcrop products and price indices

Appendix Table 25 Selected international prices for sugar and sugar price index

Appendix Table 26 Selected international prices for milk products and dairy price indices

Appendix Table 27 Selected international meat prices

Appendix Table 28 Selected international meat prices and FAO meat price index

Appendix Table 29 Fish price indices

Appendix Table 30 Selected international commodity prices

NOTES

General

- FAO estimates and forecasts are based on official and unofficial sources.

- Unless otherwise stated, all charts and tables refer to FAO data as source.

- Estimates of world imports and exports may not always match, mainly because shipments and deliveries do not necessarily occur in the same marketing year.

- Tonnes refer to metric tonnes.

- All totals are computed from unrounded data.

- Regional totals may include estimates for countries not listed. The countries shown in the tables were chosen based on their importance of either production or trade in each region. The totals shown for Central America include countries in the Caribbean.

- Estimates for China also include those for the Taiwan Province, Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR, unless otherwise stated.

- Up to 2012/13, the European Union includes 27 member states. For 2013/14, the European Union includes 28 member states.

- ‘-‘ means nil or negligible.

Production

- Cereals: Data refer to the calendar year in which the whole harvest or bulk of harvest takes place.

- Sugar: Figures refer to centrifugal sugar derived from sugar cane or beet, expressed in raw equivalents. Data relate to the October/September season.

Utilization

- Cereals: Data are on individual country’s marketing year basis.

- Sugar: Figures refer to centrifugal sugar derived from sugar cane or beet, expressed in raw equivalents. Data relate to the October/September season.

Trade

- Trade between European Union member states is excluded, unless otherwise stated.

- Wheat: Trade data include wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent. The time reference period is July/June, unless otherwise stated.

- Coarse grains: The time reference period is July/June, unless otherwise stated.

- Rice, dairy and meat products: The time reference period is January/December.

- Oilseeds, oils and fats and meals and sugar: The time reference period is October/September, unless otherwise stated.

Stocks

- Cereals: Data refer to carry-overs at the close of national crop seasons ending in the year shown.

COUNTRY CLASSIFICATION

In the presentation of statistical material, countries are subdivided according to geographical location as well as into the following two main economic groupings: “developed countries” (including the developed market economies and the transition markets) and “developing countries” (including the developing market economies and the Asia centrally planned countries). The designation “Developed” and “Developing” economies is intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process.

References are also made to special country groupings: Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The LIFDCs include 62 countries that are net importers of basic foodstuffs with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for International Development Aid (IDA) assistance (i.e. USD 1 915 in 2010). The LDCs group currently includes 49 countries with low income as well as weak human resources and low level of economic diversification. The list is reviewed every three years by the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations.

DISCLAIMER

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

[1] Trade data include wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent. For the EU semolina is also included.

[2] Argentina (December/November) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Australia (November/October) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Canada (August/July); EU (July/June); United States (June/May) for rye, barley and oats, (September/August) for maize and sorghum.

[3] Rice trade data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.

[1] The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown; for tree crops which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.

[1] Includes oils and fats of vegetable, marine and animal origin.

[1] Expressed in product weight; includes meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as fish meal and other meals from animal origin.

[1] Including “other meat”.

[1] Dairy years starting April of the year stated (production only).

[2] Dairy years ending June of the year stated (production only).

[3] Dairy years ending May of the year stated (production only).

Note: Trade figures refer to the milk equivalent trade in the following products: butter (6.60), cheese (4.40), milk powder (7.60), skim condensed/evaporated milk (1.90), whole condensed/evaporated milk (2.10), yoghurt (1.0), cream (3.60), casein (7.40), skim milk (0.70). The conversion factors cited refer to the solids content method. Refer to IDF Bulletin No. 390 (March 2004).

[1] Production and trade data exclude whales, seals, other aquatic mammals and aquatic plants. Trade data include fish meal and fish oil.

[2] Including intra-trade. Cyprus is included in the European Union as well as in Asia.

[3] For capture fisheries production, the aggregate includes also 19 214 tonnes in 2010 and 19 566 in 2011 of not identified countries, data not included in any other aggregates.

[1] Delivered United States f.o.b. Gulf; 2 Delivered United States Gulf; 3 Up River f.o.b.

Sources: International Grain Council and USDA

Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

[1] White rice, 100 percent second grade, f.o.b. Bangkok.

[2] A1 super, f.o.b. Bangkok.

[3] United States No.2, 4 percent brokens f.o.b.

[4] Up to May 2011: Basmati ordinary, f.o.b. Karachi; from June 2011 onwards: Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2%.

Note: The FAO Rice Price Index is based on 16 rice export quotations. ‘Quality’ is defined by the percentage of broken kernels, with high (low) quality referring to rice with less (equal to or more) than 20 percent brokens. The sub-index for Aromatic Rice follows movements in prices of Basmati and Fragrant rice.

Sources: FAO for indices. Rice prices: Livericeindex.com, Thai Department of Foreign Trade (DFT) and other public sources.

[1] Soybeans: US, No.2 yellow, c.i.f. Rotterdam.

[2] Soybean oil: Dutch, fob ex-mill.

[3] Palm oil: Crude, c.i.f. Northwest Europe.

[4] Soybean cake: Pellets, 44/45 percent, Argentina, c.i.f. Rotterdam.

[5] Rapeseed meal: 34 percent, Hamburg, f.o.b. ex-mill.

Note: The FAO indices are calculated using the Laspeyres formula; the weights used are the average export values of each commodity for the 2002-2004 period. The indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds, ten selected oils and fats and seven selected cakes and meals.

Sources: FAO and Oil World.

[1] Butter, 82 percent butterfat, f.o.b. Oceania; indicative traded prices

[2] Skim Milk Powder, 1.25 percent butterfat, f.o.b. Oceania, indicative traded prices

[3] Whole Milk Powder, 26 percent butterfat, f.o.b. Oceania, indicative traded prices

[4] Cheddar Cheese, 39 percent maximum moisture, f.o.b. Oceania, indicative traded prices

Note: The FAO Dairy Price Index is derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally-traded dairy products

Sources: FAO for indices. Product prices: Mid-point of price ranges reported by Dairy Market News (USDA)

Bovine meat prices:

Australia: up to Oct02 : cow forequarters frozen boneless, 85% chemical lean, cif US port (East Coast) ex-dock; from Nov02: chucks and cow forequarters

USA: Frozen beef, export unit value

Brazil: Frozen beef, export unit value

Ovine meat prices

New Zealand: Lamb, frozen whole carcasses,wholesale price Smithfield Mkt. London

Pig meat prices:

USA: Frozen pigmeat, export unit value

Brazil: Frozen pigmeat, export unit value

Germany: Monthly market price for pig carcase grade E

Poultry meat prices:

USA : Broiler cuts, export unit value

Brazil : Export unit value for chicken (f.o.b.)

The FAO Meat Price Indices consist of 2 poultry meat product quotations (the average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights), 3 bovine meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights), 3 pig meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights), 1 ovine meat product quotation (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights): the four meat group average prices are weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002/2004.

Source= Norwegian Seafood Council.

Note: The FAO Fish Price Index is based on nominal import values expressed in CIF in the three major import markets; Japan, USA and EU. Separate indexes exist for products from aquaculture and from capture fisheries. Additional sub-indexes exist for the major commodity groups based on species.

INVESTMENT FLOWS

Article by Ann Berg, Senior Commodity Analyst

For the first time in over a decade, global trading volumes in futures contracts declined in North America, Europe and Pacific/Asia in 2012 – falling by about 15 percent. However, agricultural volumes proved an exception, experiencing an increase of 24 percent over 2011, which was a year of steep volume drop following the collapse of two US brokerage firms. In spite of the increase, the 2012 volumes still did not exceed those of 2010, which was a record volume year for the sector. In 2013, declining prices and subdued volatility seem to be depressing the hedge fund and passive index fund product sector, which had seen customer withdrawals after two years of negative returns [see “Commodity Hedge Funds in Retreat?” in the Special Feature section of this report]. Most components of the commodity sector – industrial metals, such as aluminum and copper, soft commodities, such as cocoa, coffee and sugar, and livestock – seem to be in a downtrend. A recent sharp drop in the price of gold, a market once revered as the ultimate safe haven, has left some commodity investors disillusioned. Contrarily, the impacts of the much debated US and European Regulatory reform measures appear to have been negligible for agricultural futures trade volumes, since they mostly focused on the OTC swaps market, of which agriculture comprises a very small fraction.

Forward curves

One persistent feature of the US maize, soybean and wheat markets has been their forward curve structures. Owing to their yearly production cycles, grain markets normally exhibit ascendant prices referred to as “contango” for the first 6 to 9 months of the crop year and thereafter descendant prices, referred to as “backwardation”. However, maize and soybeans exhibited high levels of backwardation soon after the 2012 harvest. The maize situation was exacerbated by the much reduced supply and the continued diversion of the grain into fuel Holding excess storage, farmers have been unwilling to sell their maize unless paid high cash premiums, while ethanol plants have drawn available maize away from the narrow band of delivery points located along the Illinois River, creating a constant shortage of delivery supplies. The net result has been an abnormally backwardated structure with calendar spreads such as Mar/May and May/July reaching historically high inversions. Similarly in soybeans, shifting demand from South American ports to US Gulf, particularly by China, has kept cash basis levels at premiums to futures, leading to almost no soybean deliveries for current crop year. and steeply backwardated forward curves. The Soft Red Wheat contract has remained mostly in contango, but at levels less upward sloping than previous years as cash and futures convergence has improved. In general, markets have performed their proper function by encouraging some demand rationing and an expansion of planted hectares for the 2013/2014 marketing season.

OCEAN FREIGHT RATES

Contributed by the International Grains Council (IGC) www.igc.org.uk

OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET (OCTOBER 2012 - MID-MAY 2013)

Over the past seven months, dry bulk ocean freight rates in the grain-carrying sectors registered some gains from mid-February on the back of improved demand for commodities, notably on routes from South America and the US Gulf. Atlantic demand continued to draw tonnage from South East Asia, thus underpinning the Pacific market. A severe congestion in Brazil’s ports was also supportive. In March, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by one-fourth, to the highest level of 2013, while the average of indices of three grains-carrying sectors soared by 35 percent. However, surplus tonnage continued to weigh and in April and the beginning of May rates in the Panamax and Supramax sectors started to retreat amid reduced volumes of trade, partly due to early-May holidays. Overall, since last September, the average of the three grain-carrying indices registered a net gain of some 38 percent, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) added just 11 percent, following a nearly 20 percent fall in Capesize values due to a weaker demand for raw materials. In the near-term, the market is expected to remain rather weak due to an over-capacity of tonnage and insufficient demand. Piracy continued to be a problem, pushing insurance premiums higher on routes along Africa’s east and west coasts, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Panamax rates remained volatile in both basins, with a sharp rise in mid-November, followed by a fall in December/January due to limited trading. However, from mid-February the market firmed on improved chartering activity and tightening supply of early vessels, notably on routes from the US Gulf and South America, underpinned by grain and soyabeans shipments. In the Pacific, the market continued to draw support from mineral shipments, particularly from Australia and Indonesia. Overall, since the beginning of October 2012, the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) more than doubled by the end of March, to the highest level in ten months. The Atlantic market eased more recently on surplus tonnage, with vessels ballasting from the Pacific and Indian Oceans into the Atlantic in search of better rates putting pressure on Atlantic rates.

Similarly to the Panamax sector, Handysize/Supramax rates rebounded in mid-February, with good returns for spot tonnage in the Atlantic, notably on routes from South America and the US Gulf. In the Pacific, mineral shipments from Indonesia to China and India continued to provide support. In April/early May Atlantic rates slipped amid sluggish demand, with South America remaining one of the major loading areas. Over the October/mid-May period, the Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) advanced by 19 percent, while the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) gained 4 percent.

Capesize rates fell sharply in December 2012 due to an oversupply of tonnage and a weak demand for minerals. The market remained weak during the following months, with the Baltic Capesize Index decreasing by nearly 20 percent since the beginning of October 2012.

FOOD IMPORT BILLS

Global food import bills expected to stabilize in 2013

At USD 1.09 trillion, world expenditures on imported foodstuffs in 2013 are tentatively forecast to remain close to last year’s level, but 13 percent below the record of 2011.

The stability of the global import expenditure masks considerable movements across individual product bills. Freight costs, which are not expected to vary significantly from 2012 levels, also contribute to stability. Of the commodities foreseen to undergo the largest changes, products in the animal protein category, including meat, dairy and fish, could rise together by as much as 8 percent to around USD 354 billion. The expected increase in these bills is based on much larger volumes of imports as well as higher world quotations, especially for dairy products and fish. By contrast, lower international prices anticipated for sugar and vegetable oils could result in import bills falling by 18 percent and 6 percent, respectively, for these products. Similarly, falling prices of beverages are expected to result in a decline of 9 percent in total expenditures on coffee, tea and cocoa. As for cereals, reduced import volumes of rice and wheat could bring cereal bills down by 2 percent, notwithstanding firm international quotations.

The tendency for global import bills to be steady in 2013 extends to many of the most economically vulnerable nations, such as those in the groups of Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) and those geographically situated in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospects for abundant domestic crops in these countries in 2013, particularly for staples, are expected to limit their need to rely on foreign supplies. However, with much lower international prices for key export primary commodities, such as sugar and tropical beverages, the terms-of-trade in food and agriculture for commodity-dependent countries may also deteriorate.

FAO PRICE INDICES

FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index remains stable[1]

The FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index tracks changes in the cost of the global food basket as depicted by the latest FAO world food balance sheet (see http://faostat.fao.org/).

From the end of last year through May 2013, the index has registered little movement, in contrast to the volatility of earlier months. This pattern reflects relatively stable prices of wheat and rice, as cereals carry a much higher weight in total consumption than in trade (50 percent versus 18 percent), which also explain the index’s departure from the FAO Food Price Index.

Contact

Adam.Prakash@fao.org

The FAO Food Price Index nearly unchanged in May at 215 points[2], [3]

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 215.2 points in May 2013, very close to its April value of 215.8 points but 10 points (5 percent) higher than in May last year. At that level, the index is nearly 10 percent below the peak reached in February 2011. The small decline in May was the result of falling dairy and sugar prices, which more than offset an increase in cereals. Oils and meat prices remained unchanged.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 238.9 points in May, up 4 points (1.9 percent) from April and nearly 17 points (7.8 percent) above May last year. Last month’s increase was mostly associated with a strong rebound in maize prices, mostly a reaction to tightening export supplies and planting delays in the United States. By contrast, wheat and rice quotations were largely unchanged from the previous month.

The FAO Oils/Fats Price Index averaged 199.0 points in May, unchanged from April. While palm oil prices gained strength following a drop in global inventories from their recent record-high levels, soy oil values eased further reflecting higher than anticipated export availabilities in Argentina and the encouraging outlook for the United States’ 2013/14 soybean crop.

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 249.8 points in May, a fall of 9 points (3.5 percent) from the exceptionally high level recorded in April. Amongst the products that make up the index, skimmed milk powder experienced the sharpest fall (-12.2 percent), followed by butter (-6.8 percent) and whole milk powder (-6.2 percent), while the average price of cheddar cheese rose slightly. Supplies of milk products for trade are still constrained by weather related factors affecting milk production in most of the major exporting countries.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 179.3 points in May – about the same as in April. The index has remained within the narrow band of 177 – 179 points since October 2012. For the different categories of meat which compose the index, poultry prices continued to edge higher, reaching an all-time high. Prices were also up for ovine meat, but largely unchanged for the other meat categories.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 250.1 points in May, down 2.6 points (1 percent) from April. Sugar prices continued to soften in May, driven by favourable harvesting conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest producers and exporter, which boosted cane harvest. More generally, the price slide reflects the prospect of more abundant global supplies, combined with weaker import demand.

[1] Food Price Index: Consists of the average of five commodity group price indices mentioned above weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004: in total 55 commodity quotations considered by FAO Commodity Specialists as representing the international prices of the food commodities noted are included in the overall index.

[2] Meat Price Index: Computed from average prices of four types of meat, weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002-2004. Quotations include two poultry products, three bovine meat products, three pig meat products, and one ovine meat product. Where more than one quotation exists for a given meat type, they are weighted by assumed fixed trade shares. Prices for the two most recent months may be estimates and subject to revision.

[3] Dairy Price Index: Consists of butter, SMP, WMP, cheese, casein price quotations; the average is weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002-2004.

[4] Cereals Price Index: This index is compiled using the grains and rice price indices weighted by their average trade share for 2002-2004. The grains Price Index consists of International Grains Council (IGC) wheat price index, itself average of nine different wheat price quotations, and one maize export quotation; after expressing the maize price into its index form and converting the base of the IGC index to 2002-2004. The Rice Price Index consists of three components containing average prices of 16 rice quotations: the components are Indica, Japonica and Aromatic rice varieties and the weights for combining the three components are assumed (fixed) trade shares of the three varieties.

[5] Oil and Fat Price Index: Consists of an average of 11 different oils (including animal and fish oils) weighted with average export value shares of each oil product for 2002-2004.

[6] Sugar Price Index: Index form of the International Sugar Agreement prices with 2002-2004 as base.

[1]The FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index is published twice a year in Food Outlook.

[2]The FAO food price indices are updated on a monthly basis and are available on: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation

[3]All changes referred to in this section, in absolute or percentage terms, are calculated based on unrounded figures.

OTHER MARKET INDICATORS

Monthly fertilizers and crude oil prices:
April 2011 to April 2013

International fertilizer prices generally eased over the past twelve months. By April 2013, the benchmark prices had fallen year-on-year by 29 percent in the case of urea, by 18 percent for potash and by 7 percent for diammonium phosphate (DAP). Continued sluggish world economic growth also weighed on crude oil prices, bringing the quotation of the EU Brent to a 10-month low of USD 103.5 per barrel.

Sources: IMF, World Bank

Price-adjusted Major Currencies US Dollar
Index: April 2011 to April 2013

For much of the past six months, the US Dollar has again risen against major currencies, gaining as much as 5 percent of its value in real terms and dampening commodity prices in world markets. The upward trend in US Dollar strength is firmly established. When viewed over a 24-month horizon, the appreciation in real terms stands at almost 11 percent.

1 Price-adjusted major currencies US Dollar index

Source: US Federal Reserve