Reference Date: 16-November-2023

Cereal production in 2023 estimated above average due to large plantings

The harvest of the 2023 main paddy crop was completed in October and production is forecast at an above‑average level, mainly due to large sowings, officially estimated to be more than 10 percent above average. The increase in area sown is prompted by high prices at planting time. According to satellite imagery, crop conditions before the start of the harvest in July were above average in key producing departments of Casanare, Meta and Tolima. The 2023 aggregate paddy production, including an above‑average minor season output harvested in the second quarter of the year, is preliminarily forecast at an above‑average level of 3 million tonnes. To prevent prices to decline due to the expected abundant supply, the Ministry of Agriculture allocated COP 25 billion (about USD 6.1 million) to provide incentives to farmers and buyers to store up to 170 000 tonnes of paddy harvested in the second half of 2023.

Harvesting of the 2023 main season maize crop was completed in September. Production is forecast at an above‑average level, reflecting large sowings, as farmers responded positively to the high maize prices. The minor season maize crop, which accounts for about 40 to 45 percent of the annual maize production, was harvested in the first quarter of 2023, yielding an above‑average output, also due to above‑average plantings. In aggregate, 2023 maize production is estimated at an above‑average level of 1.55 million tonnes.

Cereal import requirements forecast at near‑average levels in 2023

About 85 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are usually covered by imports. Cereal import requirements in the 2023 marketing year (January/December) are expected at 8.6 million tonnes, similar to the five‑year average. The 2023 above‑average output of maize and ample carryover stocks from the large imports of wheat in 2022, contributed to satisfy the strong domestic demand and prevented the increase of import requirements.

Cereal prices lower year‑on‑year in October 2023

Prices of white maize for human consumption declined in October for the fifth consecutive month due to ample supplies from the above‑average 2023 harvests. Similarly, an increase in seasonal supplies of both yellow maize and rice provided a downward pressure on prices since July/August. Prices of wheat flour, which is mostly imported, declined between May and October 2023, in line with declining international wheat quotations. As of October, cereal prices were below their year‑earlier levels, among which prices of yellow maize were more than 20 percent in the markets of the capital city.

Overall, food inflation decreased steadily during the first ten months of 2023, from 26.2 percent in January to 10.4 percent in October.

Temporary legal status granted to 2 million migrants to facilitate integration

The country hosts a high number of refugees and migrants as well as Internally displace people (IDP). According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in the food security sector is estimated at 7.1 million in 2023. This includes refugees and migrants as well as Colombian host communities or people affected by internal conflicts. As of early November 2023, in order to improve livelihoods of migrants and enable their integration in the Colombian society, the government granted nearly 2 million resident permits for a temporary period of ten years.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .