Reference Date: 13-November-2023

Cereal production in 2023 forecast at above‑average level

In southern bimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the 2023 main season maize crop was completed last September, while harvesting operations of rainfed rice concluded in October. Weather conditions were generally favourable between March and July, supporting good yield expectations. Planting of the second season maize crop, for harvest from December onwards, was completed in September. Rainfall amounts received between August and October were generally above average, supporting crop establishment and development.

In northern unimodal rainfall areas, harvesting operations of the 2023 cereal crops are ongoing and will be completed in December. Overall production prospects in these areas are favourable, reflecting adequate cumulative rainfall amounts between May and September. However, crops in parts of the Northern Region have been affected by below‑average rainfall amounts (ASI map), likely resulting in localized production shortfalls.

Weather forecasts point to average rainfall amounts between November 2023 and January 2024 over most cropping areas, bolstering yield expectations for the 2023 cereal crops.

The 2023 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 5.3 million tonnes, 4 percent above the previous year’s level and 18 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting the overall conducive weather conditions as well as a slight increase in planted area.

Prices of cereals well above their year‑earlier levels

After sharp unseasonal increases between September and December 2022, wholesale prices of locally produced coarse grains followed mixed trends between January and August 2023 (latest available data). Prices of sorghum, maize and millet in August were between 35 and 70 percent above their year‑earlier levels in most markets.

Wholesale prices of both local and imported rice followed mixed trends between January and August 2023, when prices of local rice were between 75 and 95 percent higher on a yearly basis, while prices of imported rice were 50 to 90 percent above their year‑earlier values.

The high cereal prices are mainly due to the elevated prices of fuel and agricultural inputs, which inflated production and transport costs. Furthermore, the depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi, that was equivalent to GHS 11.3/USD 1 in August 2023 compared to GHS 8.1/USD 1 in August 2022, increased the cost of imported goods.

About 1.37 million people acutely food insecure between June and August 2023

According to the latest “Cadre Harmonisé” (CH) analysis, nearly 1.37 million people (4 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2023 lean season, including about 72 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency).

Concerns on access to food persist as prices stand at high levels and the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households is low, amid rampant inflation. The annual food inflation rate was estimated at 49.3 percent in September 2023.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2023 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in late November 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .