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Country Briefs

  Kazakhstan

Reference Date: 27-April-2023

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Favourable production prospects for 2023 minor winter wheat crop

  2. Above‑average cereal production obtained in 2022

  3. Wheat exports forecast at above‑average level in 2022/23

  4. Retail prices of wheat higher year‑on‑year

Favourable production prospects for 2023 minor winter wheat crop

Harvesting of the 2023 minor wheat crop, which was planted in October 2022 in the main producing southern regions, is expected to take place between June and August 2023. Weather conditions have been overall favourable during the season and, as of mid‑April, vegetation conditions were at near‑average levels. Planting of the main spring wheat crop is expected to start in May 2023 in the key producing northern provinces and crops will be harvested from mid‑August.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the total area planted with wheat in 2021 is expected to increase by about 100 000 hectares compared to the previous year.

Aboveaverage cereal production obtained in 2022

The total 2022 wheat production, including winter and spring crops, is estimated at 16.4 million tonnes, well above the five‑average level and 39 percent more than the previous year, due to favourable weather conditions. The 2022 barley output is estimated at an above‑average level of 3.3 million tonnes also due to good weather conditions. The total cereal production in 2022 is estimated at a above‑average level of 21.5 million tonnes.

Wheat exports forecast at aboveaverage level in 2022/23

Total cereal exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 10 million tonnes, 10 percent above the average volume. Wheat exports are forecast at an above average level of 9.5 million tonnes, amid the bumper production obtained in 2022 and strong export demand. By contrast, barley exports are projected at 600 000 tonnes, well below the average volume.

Retail prices of wheat higher yearonyear

National average retail prices of first grade wheat flour increased steeply from March to October 2022. From November 2022 onwards, prices remained overall stable. In January 2023, domestic retail prices of first grade wheat flour were 30 percent higher year‑on‑year.

Retail prices of potatoes, another food staple in the country, decreased steeply between July and October 2022, and remained stable from November 2022 to January 2023, in line with seasonal patterns.

On 10 April 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture announced a ban on imports of wheat by road into the national territory for a period of six months.The aim is to support domestic farmers through stabilizing the price of locally produced wheat, which is facing strong competition from the lower prices of the grain exported by the Russian Federation.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/
.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .