Reference Date: 20-September-2023

Slightly below‑average paddy output forecast in 2023

Harvesting of the 2023 paddy crop, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal output, is expected to finalize in October and production is forecast at a below‑average level of 4.9 million tonnes. Planted area with rice has gradually declined since 2002, mainly driven by the government’s efforts to encourage the production of other crops, in response to the decline in rice consumption. The Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) map at end‑August, just before the start of harvesting operations does not indicate drought‑related stress to crops.

Cereal import requirements in 2023/24 marketing year forecast at above‑average level

Total cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at an above‑average level of 17.1 million tonnes. Imports of maize, that account for the largest share of total cereal imports, are projected at an above‑average level of 11.5 million tonnes, driven by the steady demand of the feed industry. Wheat imports are forecast at an above‑average level of 5 million tonnes, reflecting the steady demand of high‑quality wheat for milling and of low‑quality wheat for feed. In calendar year 2023, rice imports are forecast at 350 000 tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .