Reference Date: 26-October-2023

Favourable cereal production estimated in 2023

Harvesting of the 2023 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, finalized in August. The wheat output is set at about 1.1 million tonnes, above the five‑year average and almost 30 percent above the previous year’s level, following favourable rainfall received during planting and growing stages from September 2022 to May 2023. Harvesting of maize (a spring crop), started in October under overall favourable weather conditions and a stable planted area. The output is forecast at 1.5 million tonnes, double the 2022 output, but still below the five‑year average.

Total 2023 cereal output is estimated at about 2.8 million tonnes, 32 percent above the previous year’s level but remaing below the five‑year average. Planting of the 2024 winter cereals will start in October 2023 under overall favourable weather conditions and crops will be harvested from July 2024.

Total cereal exports in 2023/24 forecast well below average

Total cereal exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at almost 800 000 tonnes, below the five‑year average volume, as a consequence of the still below‑average harvest obtained in 2023. The forecast includes well below ‑ average levels of 300 000 tonnes of maize and 400 000 tonnes of wheat.

Wheat flour prices below year‑earlier levels

The national average retail prices of wheat flour slightly decreased between March and July 2023, remaining 5 percent down year‑on‑year, supported by improved supplies from higher domestic wheat production and increased wheat flour imports from Ukraine. The national average retail prices of potatoes, another food staple in the subregion, continued to follow mixed trends in 2023: prices rose sharply between March and June, while declined in July 2023.

Yearly Gross domestic product (GDP) fell in 2022

The National Bureau of Statitistic reported that the GDP in 2022 decreased by 5.9 percent, following a 13.9 percent increase in 2021. Inflation fell at 9.7 percent in August 2023 with a similar food inflation rate at 9.6 percent, driven mostly by geopolitical tensions due to the war in Ukraine.

Since February 2022, the country received 792 605 Ukrainian refugees. As at September 2023, about 116 610 refugees were recorded in the Republic of Moldova (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR]), mostly accommodated in Refugee Accommodation Centres (RAC).

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .