Reference Date: 23-December-2022

Cereal output in 2022 forecast at average level

Harvesting of the 2022 main season maize crop is ongoing. The seasonal output is forecast at a near‑average level, as the contraction in sowings due to dryness was offset by above‑average yields, supported by improved rainfall amounts in August and September. The 2022 maize production, including the below‑average minor season output harvested between April and July, is anticipated at a slightly below‑average level of 26.5 million tonnes.

The 2022 aggregate cereal production is forecast at an average level of 36.7 million tonnes, including the above‑average harvests of sorghum and wheat crops, driven by excellent yields. The wheat planted area was slightly above the average and the largest since 2018, as high wheat prices at planting time instigated farmers to expand sowings.

Expected dry weather conditions in first quarter of 2023 may curtail yield prospects

Planting operations of the 2023 main wheat and minor maize crops are underway. In the key producing northwestern region, where crops are grown predominantly under irrigation, abundant rains in August and September secured an adequate availability of irrigation water. Official forecasts point to plantings of the 2023 main wheat crop at an above‑average level and minor maize crop at near‑average levels. However, below‑average precipitation amounts are forecast in the 2023 January to March period, with likely negative effects on crops at vegetative and flowering stages.

Cereal import requirements in 2022/23 marketing year forecast slightly above average

Cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at 23.9 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average. The increasing demand for yellow maize by the domestic feed industry steadily supported cereal imports since 2012, making the country the world’s second largest maize importer in the 2021/22 marketing year.

Prices of white maize and black beans higher year‑on‑year in November 2022

Prices of white maize rose in October and November, as the ongoing harvest has not yet improved market supplies. High production and transportation costs also provided upward pressure. Prices in November were more than 35 percent above year‑earlier levels in the capital, Mexico City, following sharp increases in the second quarter of the year in line with rising prices in the international market. Similarly, prices of black beans increased substantially in November, reflecting expectations on a below‑average main harvest and reaching levels 50 percent higher year‑on‑year. By contrast, prices of rice declined between September and November, on account of larger year‑on‑year imports in the third quarter of 2022 and were near their value a year ago.

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