Reference Date: 22-September-2023

Above‑average wheat production officially forecast in 2023

Harvesting of the 2023 wheat crop, mostly irrigated, is expected to finalize by end‑September and production is officially forecast at an above‑average level of 472 000 tonnes. The bumper output is attributed to the large area sown, driven by record high domestic prices at planting time and robust local demand. In the Central Region, where about 80 percent of wheat is grown, yields are forecast at average to above‑average levels due to favourable weather conditions and ample supply of irrigation water. In the minor cereal producing provinces of Uvs, Khovd and Bayan-Ölgii in Western Region, poor rainfall between June and August affected crops at flowering and grain‑filling stages, and yields are expected at a below‑average level.

The 2023 output of other crops, including potatoes, oats and buckwheat, is forecast at average to above‑average levels, reflecting high levels of plantings supported by strong local demand and above‑average yields due to favourable weather conditions.

Cereal import requirements in 2023/24 estimated below average

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (October/September), mostly wheat, are forecast at a below‑average level of 156 000 tonnes, reflecting the expected bumper domestic production. For the 2023 calendar year, import requirements of rice, which is not produced domestically, are estimated at a near‑average level of 50 000 tonnes.

Prices of wheat flour at record levels in July 2023

Prices of wheat flour, a key staple food, have steadily increased since July 2022 and they were at record levels in August 2023, ranging between 45 and 65 percent higher than their year‑earlier levels. The high level of prices mostly reflects the elevated production and transport costs as well as the significant depreciation of the national currency, which made imports more expensive. During 2022, the tugrik depreciated steadily against the US dollar, losing 20 percent of its value, and it has remained relatively stable at low levels in 2023.

Prices of beef and mutton meat, other important staple foods, declined seasonally in July and August 2023 as a result of improved market availability linked to increased livestock sales ahead of the winter. However, prices remained well above their values a year earlier as seasonal increases between January and June 2023 were compounded by the elevated costs of feed. Strong demand from China (mainland), the country’s main meat importer, also supported prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .