Reference Date: 05-December-2023

Below‑average cereal output estimated in 2023

Harvesting of the 2023 wheat crop has been recently completed and production is estimated at a below‑average level of 1 million tonnes. This is mainly due to below‑average yields as crops have been affected by fungal diseases caused by above‑average precipitation amounts and high temperatures between August and October.

The 2023 maize output is officially estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, about 17 percent below the five‑year average. The low outturn reflects a contraction of planted area, as planting operations of the main crop were delayed due to the late completion of the soybean harvest, which precedes the main maize season. Similarly, 2023 paddy production is officially estimated at a below‑average level of 978 000 tonnes, as low availability of irrigation water, due to below‑average rainfall amounts in the first quarter of 2023, resulted in below‑average yields. In aggregate, 2023 cereal production is estimated at 6.6 million tonnes, nearly 15 percent below the average.

Area sown to 2024 maize and paddy crops forecast at above‑average level

The 2024 minor season maize crop, which accounts for 5 percent of the annual production, will be harvested from December. Satellite imagery as of mid‑November points to good crop conditions, especially in the main producing eastern region. Planting of the 2024 main season maize crop will start next January and the area sown is officially forecast at a near‑average level of 1 million hectares, rebounding from the low level in 2023, driven by high domestic prices.

Planting of the 2024 paddy crop is ongoing and improved precipitation amounts in late October increased irrigation water levels in most reservoirs. The area planted is officially forecast at an above‑average level, supported by all‑time high rice prices.

Weather forecasts point to average to above‑average rainfall amounts between December 2023 and February 2024, likely providing conducive conditions for planting and germination of the main maize crop as well as for adequate development of the paddy crop.

Exports of cereals in 2023/24 forecast slightly below average

Cereal exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at slightly a below‑average level of 3.5 million tonnes, due to the reduced cereal outturn in 2023. This represents a significant drop from the record level registered in 2022/23, when about 5.7 million tonnes were exported following bumper harvests that increased exportable surpluses.

Prices of yellow maize and rice in October 2023 higher year‑on‑year

Wholesale prices of rice have been generally on the rise during the first ten months of 2023, due to tight domestic supplies from the low output in 2022 as well as above‑average exports during the 2022/23 marketing year. Prices of yellow maize strengthened between July and October 2023 as the strong demand for exports more than offset seasonal downward pressure. October prices of both rice and yellow maize were about 20 percent above their year‑earlier levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .