Reference Date: 07-October-2022

Production prospects for 2022 wheat crop favourable due to large sowings and good crop conditions

Harvesting of the 2022 wheat crop will start in November and the planted area is officially estimated at 288 000 hectares, more than 30 percent above the five‑year average. High prices of wheat and adequate soil moisture levels at planting time instigated farmers to increase sowings. Vegetation conditions are favourable (green areas on NDVI Anomaly map) in the western producing area, bolstering production prospects. Although weather forecasts point to below‑average rainfall amounts in the October‑December period, production prospects are expected to remain favourable as wheat crops are relatively tolerant to water stress during the maturity stage.

The 2022 barley crop will also be harvested in November and its area sown is officially estimated at a near‑average level. After increasing sharply during the last two years, barley plantings declined year on year in 2022 at the expense of wheat and rapeseed.

Production of the 2022 paddy crop is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, nearly 10 percent above the five‑year average due to above‑average yields. Production of the 2022 maize crop is officially estimated at a well above‑average level of 878 000 tonnes, reflecting large sowings which were driven by high prices at planting time. The 2022 aggregate cereal output is anticipated at 4.3 million tonnes, about 20 percent above the five‑year average.

Planting of 2023 paddy and maize crops ongoing

Planting operations of the 2023 paddy and maize crops are ongoing. The producers’ rice association forecasts that the 2023 planted area will decline to a near‑average level owing to the year‑on‑year decline of prices and elevated production costs. Planted area with maize is also forecast to decline from the 2022 high level, but it is likely to remain at an above‑average level due to generally high prices.

Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of below‑average rainfall amounts in the last quarter of 2022. This is likely to have negative effects on germination and development of crops, especially for the predominantly rainfed maize.

Cereal exports in 2022/23 marketing year forecast at high levels

Cereal exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at an above‑average level of 1.9 million tonnes, the highest level recorded since 2013/14. The expected large export volumes of rice and wheat, which account for about 85 percent of the total annual exports of cereals, reflect ample exportable availabilities from the 2022 bumper harvests as well as strong international demand.

Prices of wheat grain at very high levels in August 2022

Domestic prices of wheat grain soared in March 2022, mainly reflecting the sharp increase in foreign demand, amid concerns over the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on global wheat supplies. Exports of wheat in February and March 2022 were more than double, compared to the average of the same period in 2019 2021. Since April, prices have remained virtually unchanged at levels more than 30 percent higher than the year before.

Prices of rice and maize were overall steady in the third quarter of 2022 due to adequate market supplies and stable exchange rates. Prices of most food items were higher year on year as indicated by the annual inflation rate of food and non‑alcoholic beverages, estimated at 11.4 percent in August 2022.

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