Reference Date: 19-September-2022

Wheat output in 2022 estimated at near‑average level

Harvesting of 2022 winter cereals, mainly wheat, planted between September and November last year, finalized in mid‑August. The 2022 spring grains, mainly maize and rice, were planted between April and June, and harvesting of early‑planted crops took place in August, while harvesting of late‑planted crops is ongoing.

The aggregate 2022 cereal output is forecast at about 7.2 million tonnes, 3 percent above the five‑year average level, following overall conducive weather conditions during the season. The result is on account of a slightly above‑average output estimated for wheat, at 6.1 million tonnes, and near‑average outputs forecast for maize and rice.

Planting of 2023 winter cereals, to be harvested from June next year, started in late August and is currently ongoing under favourable weather conditions.

Near‑average wheat import requirements forecast in 2022/23 marketing year

In the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June), import requirements of wheat (including wheat grain and wheat flour), accounting on average for over 90 percent of the total cereal purchases, are forecast at a near‑average level of 3.3 million tonnes. Imports of wheat flour have declined by 70 percent between 2011/12 and 2021/22, while purchases of high quality wheat grain, mainly sourced from Kazakhstan, have sharply increased due to an improved local milling capacity.

Average inflation in 2022 forecast to increase on yearly basis

According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the average inflation rate is forecast to increase slightly from 10.7 percent in 2021 to 12‑14 percent in 2022, due to high prices for imported commodities, especially food items. It is estimated that food inflation in July 2022 was about 16 percent higher compared to 12 months earlier.

The Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to decline from 7.4 percent in 2021 to about 5 percent in 2022. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), private consumption in 2022 may be affected by a decline in remittances, which accounted for about 11 percent of the GDP in recent years, with approximately 70 percent originating from the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The implementation of international sanctions, following the escalation of the war in Ukraine, is expected to negatively affect demand for goods and services in the Russian Federation, reducing work opportunities also for migrants.

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