Reference Date: 17-July-2023
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Main 2023 winter/spring rice production estimated at near‑average level
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Cereal import requirements in 2023/24 forecast at near‑average levels
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Domestic prices of rice higher year‑on‑year in June 2023
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Main 2023 winter/spring rice production estimated at near-average level
Harvesting of the 2023 main winter/spring rice crop, which is mostly irrigated and accounts for about 45 percent of the annual output, concluded in June and production is estimated at a near‑average level of 20.2 million tonnes, up slightly from the 2022 level as yield increases offset a contraction in the area planted. Overall, the total area planted with rice has been on a steady decline since 2016, following a shift to other crops as well as to other purposes, such as housing and infrastructure. Planting of the 2023 summer/autumn rice crop, which accounts for about 35 percent of the annual output, is ongoing and harvesting of early planted crops started in July. Near‑average amounts and well‑distributed rainfall since April, and adequate irrigation water availability in the key rice producing areas of Mekong River Delta improved soil moisture levels and benefitted crop establishment and development. As of late June, remote sensing data shows average to above‑average vegetation conditions throughout most parts of the country (NDVI map), inferring to favourable yield prospects for the summer/autumn crops. By contrast, below‑average vegetation conditions are visible in the minor rice producing areas in northcentral and northeastern parts, following below‑average rainfall amounts between April and June. Planting of the 2023 winter “10th month” rice crop, accounting for about 20 percent of the annual output, started in mid‑June and is expected to continue until September.
Harvesting of the 2023 main winter/spring maize crop will finalize at the end of July and the output is forecast at a below‑average level mostly due to a reduction in sowings as farmers preferred to grow more profitable vegetables, fruits and other cash crops. Overall, weather conditions were favourable benefitting yields, but recurrent dry spells between March and May affected crop development in parts of the important northern maize producing areas. Planting of the 2023 secondary summer/autumn maize crop, to be harvested from September, was completed in June under generally favourable moisture conditions.
According to weather forecasts, below‑average precipitation amounts are likely between August and October 2023 over central and southern parts of the country, which may curb production of summer/autumn and “10th month” crops as well as affect irrigation water availability for the 2024 main winter/spring crops.
Cereal import requirements in 2023/24 marketing year (June/July) forecast at near‑average level
Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a near‑average level of 15.6 million tonnes. Imports of maize, which account for most of the total cereal purchases, are projected at a near‑average level of 10 million tonnes, reflecting steady demand by the livestock sector. Imports of wheat, which is not domestically produced, are forecast at 4 million tonnes, 5 percent above the five‑year average, driven by an increase in demand for milling wheat attributed to increasing population and to the recovery in the tourism sector after the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Rice exports are forecast at 7.5 million tonnes in the 2023 calendar year, the highest level since 2015, owing to strong demand from some of its traditional Asian markets.
Domestic prices of rice higher year‑on‑year in June 2023
After being relatively stable at the start of the year, domestic prices of rice have been increasing since March 2023, driven by strong international demand and generally tight market availabilities. Overall, domestic rice prices in June 2023 were between 20 to 30 percent higher than one year before.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/
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FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool
https://fpma.fao.org/
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FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring
https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/
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Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
https://www.ipcinfo.org/
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