Reference Date: 20-February-2025

Plantings of 2025 paddy and main maize crops estimated above average

The 2025 first season minor maize crop is currently at flowering and grain-filling stages in key producing southern regions, while planting is still ongoing in northern areas. Planted area is reported to be about 10 percent below the average as some farmers opted to plant more profitable soybean crops. Favourable precipitation levels provided adequate conditions for early development crop stages, but below-average rainfall in the December  2024 -January   2025 period generated soil moisture deficits in the key producing Rio Grande do Sul State, likely curbing crop yields.

Sowing operations for the 2025 main season maize crop, accounting for about 80  percent of the aggregate annual production, started last January and are expected to be concluded in March. The sown area, concentrated in the main producing state of Mato Grosso, is estimated at about 5  percent above the average, reflecting the surge in domestic prices during the second half of the year. Weather forecasts point to average rainfall between March and May   2025 in the main growing central regions, providing conducive conditions for crop development.

Plantings of the 2025 paddy season crops finalized last January. Rising rice prices in the second half of 2024 encouraged farmers to increase the area planted in 2025, which is officially estimated 8.4 percent above the average. Crops are currently at vegetative and flowering stages, and adequate soil moisture levels in key producing southern states support favourable yield prospects.

Aggregate 2024 maize production remains above average, but lower than 2023 record high level

Aggregate maize output in 2024 is officially estimated at 115.7 million tonnes, about 8 percent above the previous five-year average, but 12 percent below the 2023 bumper harvest. Planted area was reported to be around 6 percent above average, despite being lower than the previous year due to decreased year-on-year domestic prices at planting times. Adequate crop conditions in the main cropping Mato Grosso State in the second quarter of 2024, coinciding with the development stage, more than offset the negative impact of dry weather on yields in southern regions.

The harvest of 2024 wheat season was concluded at the beginning of last December. Output, which is officially estimated at 7.9 million tonnes, remained above the previous five-year average, but was moderately lower than the 2023 record high production. Plantings are reported to be about 12 percent above the average, but lower year-on-year due to the fall in domestic prices.

Exports of maize and wheat declined year-on-year in 2024/25 marketing year, due to reduced exportable surpluses

Exports of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal, are estimated at 38.5 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (March/February), slightly above the average, but about 25 percent lower than the 2023 record-high maize export. High exports reflect three consecutive years of above-average maize output. The year-on-year reduction is mainly due to the cutback in exportable surpluses from the lower harvest in 2024, combined with rising domestic demand. Similarly, exports of wheat in 2023/24 are officially estimated at a three-year low, due to the competition from Argentina’s ample exportable supply.

Exports of rice in the 2024 marketing year (January/December) are estimated at a below-average level of 1.08 million tonnes, 25 percent below the previous year. This is due to the limited domestic supply from the 2024 production, curtailed by floodings and excessive rainfall in southern regions. As prices started to increase in the first half of 2024, the government removed the import tariffs on paddy (milled and brown rice) until the end of the year, resulting in above-average imports in 2024.

Wholesale prices of rice and maize increased year-on-year

Wholesale prices of yellow maize increased in the second half of 2024, in line with seasonal trends, and started to decline last December, ahead of the onset of the minor season harvest. Prices of maize in December   2024 were about 8   percent higher than the low levels of the previous year, driven by the large supply from the 2023 bumper harvest. Wholesale prices of rice declined month-on-month in December   2024 after growing seasonally for two consecutive months and were more than 10   percent above their year-earlier level, reflecting crop losses generated by abundant precipitations during the 2024 season. Wholesale prices of wheat declined during the last quarter of 2024, reflecting large market availability from the 2024 harvest and reaching almost the same level of one year before.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .