Amid the start of the main agricultural season, prices of the key food staple, maize, continues to trend at high year-on-year levels across the subregion in September and October 2024. This largely reflects tight domestic supplies and currency depreciation, as well as strong export demand. Early prospects for the 2025 crop appear favourable, based on a likely return of wetter weather conditions this season and a potential upturn in production could provide a respite for cereal prices next year.

In South Africa, wholesale prices of white and yellow maize grain continued to climb month-on-month in October 2024. The gap between the two varieties narrowed, as yellow maize prices rose more rapidly. However, while white maize prices reached a new record, yellow maize prices remained 10 percent below the all-time highs of November 2022. There are two key drivers supporting the elevated levels, a tight domestic supply, following a weather-stricken harvest, and robust export demand from regional neighbours, as drought-reduced 2024 harvests have heightened import needs. Wholesale wheat prices continued to fall in October, reflecting lower year-on-year prices on the international market and a continued strengthening of the national currency, given the country’s status as a net importer of wheat. In Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia, who import the bulk of their grain needs, prices of maize meal (mostly made from white maize) remained relatively stable in September. In the near-term, maize prices are likely to remain under upward pressure, reflecting the record price levels in South Africa. In Zambia, after falling seasonally in preceding months, there was an uptick in maize grain prices in October, pushing prices up 27 percent year-on‑year. Maize meal prices continued to rise and reached new record highs. The price growth in 2024 is largely fuelled by the impact of the El Niño-induced drought on domestic food supplies, a factor also underpinning elevated headline inflation rates. Although there has been some stability in the value of the national currency against the United States dollar, there has been an incipient depreciation since mid-October that might heighten imported inflation. In Malawi, prices of maize grain remained largely stable in September and October, and below peaks reached in January earlier this year. On a yearly basis, the national average price of maize grain was 11 percent higher, owing to the impact of a weak currency and a reduced cereal output in 2024. In Zimbabwe, following a 40 percent devaluation of the national currency in September, food prices denominated in national currency jumped by 49 percent in October. Food prices denominated in United States dollars, also legal tender in Zimbabwe, grew at a slower pace of less than 5 percent. The impact of the drought on domestic food production is also supporting the strong price increases. In Mozambique, the annual food inflation rate continued to remain around the 5 percent mark in September. Social unrest in several cities following the elections in October may disrupt market functions, potentially causing localized temporary price spikes in the coming months.