Wheat export prices in the Russian Federation increased by around 9 percent month-on-month in October 2024 due to concerns over the potential negative impact of unfavourable weather conditions on winter crop sowings. In Ukraine,¹ wheat export prices increased for the third consecutive month in October as steady demand was met with slow farmer selling along with concerns over dry weather conditions on the winter wheat crop. Prices remained around 20 percent higher compared to the same period last year, mainly due to war-related damage to ships and grain infrastructure. In Kazakhstan, the milling wheat export price fell for the fourth consecutive month in October reaching its lowest level in 2024, and by around 8 percent month-on-month, as demand remained sluggish from the key importing countries in Central Asia.

At the domestic level, the national average price levels of wheat flour sustained upward trends in October 2024 in the Russian Federation and in Ukraine, while they held steady in Kazakhstan in September. In the Russian Federation, the national average retail price of wheat flour increased slightly month-on-month and was 6 percent higher year‑on‑year, reflecting expectations for a reduced 2024 wheat harvest. In Ukraine, the national average wholesale price of wheat flour increased month‑on‑month, reflecting the tight domestic supply, strong export activity, as well as high input and transport costs. In Kazakhstan, the national average wholesale price for wheat flour was steady for the second consecutive month in September, following a sustained decline during the first half of 2024. Prices were nearly unchanged compared to the same period in 2023, amid quiet market activity, good harvest prospects and ample ending stocks.

Wheat flour prices were mostly stable or decreased in the net wheat importing countries of the subregion in September and October 2024. In Armenia and Azerbaijan, the national average retail price of first grade wheat flour remained stable month on month in September reflecting adequate domestic supply. In Georgia, the national average retail price of wheat flour increased for the second consecutive month in October. In Belarus, the national average retail price of wheat flour remained stable month-on-month in September and was about 7 percent above last year’s level. In the Republic of Moldova, national average retail wheat flour prices increased slightly in September after decreasing steadily between June and August 2024, and were 11 percent below last year’s level, supported by the above-average 2024 winter wheat harvest as well as adequate wheat flour imports from Ukraine. In Kyrgyzstan, the national average retail price of wheat flour was stable month-on‑month in October and was about 4 percent below the October 2023 level after declining steadily between March and August 2024. In Tajikistan, the national average retail price of wheat flour, decreased by about 2 percent month-on-month in September and was almost 20 percent below last year’s level, due to the adequate 2024 winter wheat harvest.