Ample 2025 harvests across much of Southern Africa continued to weigh on grain prices in September and October 2025. Early optimistic production prospects for the 2026 cereal crop, underpinned by expectations of favourable La Niña-related rains, point to higher likelihood of sustained price stability into 2026.

In South Africa, the declining trend in wholesale prices of yellow and white maize continued in October 2025, with prices reaching levels about 22 and 36 percent, respectively, below year-earlier values. These price declines are predominantly driven by ample national supplies following an above-average harvest in 2025. Expectations of a second consecutive above-average harvest in 2026, resting on prospects of an expansion in plantings and a favourable rainfall outlook linked to the prevailing La Niña conditions, are exerting further downward pressure. Moreover, lower regional demand for South African maize, amid an improvement in production levels across most of Southern Africa in 2025, and declining international maize quotations, underpinned by ample global supplies, are further limiting upward price pressure. Wholesale wheat prices decreased for the third consecutive month in October, pressured by softening international prices on the back of an estimated record global output and stock growth in key exporting countries. On a yearly basis, wholesale wheat prices were at broadly comparable levels.

There were mixed month-on-month movements of retail prices of maize meal in the net importing countries of Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia. In general, white maize meal prices were close to or moderately higher than their year-earlier levels as of September 2025, amid the declining prices in South Africa, the countries’ main supplier. In Malawi, after four consecutive monthly increases, the national average price of white maize grain fell in October 2025. However, despite the decline, the average price remains about 50 percent higher year-on-year, underpinned by tight supply conditions, amid two consecutive years of below-average harvests. The Malawian government has recently signed a government‑to‑government agreement with Zambia to import 200 000 tonnes of maize grain. These imports could contribute to easing pressure on prices; however, the timing of the imports remains uncertain. In Zambia, prices of maize grain and meal products were generally unchanged in October relative to September’s levels and were between 20 and 30 percent lower year‑on‑year, driven by substantial national supplies after a bumper harvest in 2025. An appreciation of the national currency since mid-2025 has also contributed to limiting imported inflationary pressure. Looking further ahead, prospects of a good rainy season bode well both for agricultural production and hydro-electricity generation in 2026, factors that could help maintain stable prices into next year. In Zimbabwe, the annual food inflation rate (using the blended rate that combines prices denominated in United States dollars and the national currency) fell to 23 percent in October from 42 percent in September, amid generally sufficient domestic food availability, reflecting an upturn in production in 2025, and continued imports of grains, largely from South Africa. In Mozambique, after a 3-percentage point jump in August, the annual food inflation rate remained unchanged at 12 percent in September 2025. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), prices of key cereal products (maize meal, rice and wheat flour) were stable or lower year-on-year as of September 2025 across most provinces.