Prices of coarse grains followed mixed month-on-month trends in September and October 2025 across the subregion. In the Sudan and South Sudan, prices continue to be at significantly elevated year-on-year levels, underpinned by conflicts and insecurity, and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including currency weakness. In Uganda and Rwanda, prices of maize were substantially higher than one year earlier, due to a tight supply situation coupled with sustained export demand in Uganda and a weak national currency inflating fuel prices and transport costs in Rwanda.

In the Sudan, retail prices of domestically produced sorghum declined in September by 2 and 3 percent, respectively, in Kassala and Qadarif markets, located in southeastern key-producing areas, ahead of the 2025 harvest. Similarly, prices of millet levelled off in Nyala Market, located in South Darfur State, a key millet producing area. By contrast, in Al Fashir Market, located in North Darfur State, between August and September, cereal prices continued to surge, with prices of sorghum almost doubling and prices of millet increasing by almost 70 percent, due to heightened violence and the besiegement of the city. As of September 2025, prices of sorghum in Kassala and prices of millet in Nyala were more than four and almost three times, respectively, their pre-conflict levels in March 2023, while prices in Al Fashir were more than 200 times their values in March 2023. Cereal prices are underpinned by the impact of the ongoing conflict, which resulted in high input prices inflating production costs and trade disruptions, against a backdrop of already elevated prices due to macroeconomic challenges.

In South Sudan’s capital, Juba, prices of sorghum declined in October by 15 percent, while prices of maize remained firm. Prices of maize and sorghum in October were almost three times their already elevated year-earlier levels, mainly due to severe and persistent macroeconomic challenges.

In Kenya, the national average retail price of maize remained stable in October, when it was 14 percent higher than one year earlier, owing to low carryover stocks from a year-on-year lower 2024 cereal production. In Rwanda and Burundi, the national average retail price of maize increased for the third consecutive month in October following seasonal patterns, rising by 2 and 4 percent, respectively, month-on-month. The price in October was 29 percent higher year-on-year in Rwanda, mainly due to a weak national currency inflating fuel prices and transport costs, while it was 15 percent below its year-earlier level in Burundi, due to adequate domestic availability. In Ethiopia, wholesale prices of maize declined or levelled off in October with the main Meher harvest. Year on year price changes followed mixed trends, driven by local supply/demand dynamics. In Uganda, the national average price of maize continued in September the decreasing trend of recent months, albeit at slower rates, declining by 5 percent month-on-month. Despite the recent declines, prices in September remained 25 percent higher year-on-year, due to tight domestic availability coupled with sustained export demand. In Somalia, retail prices of sorghum seasonally increased in September by 12 percent in Baidoa and Dinsoor markets, located in the sorghum belt in Baidoa Region. By contrast, prices of maize declined in September by 19 percent in Qorioley Market and levelled off in Marka Market, both located in Lower Shabelle Region, the main maize producing area, with the Gu off-season maize harvest, gathered in September in riverine areas. In the capital, Mogadishu, prices of both sorghum and maize moderately increased in October, by 2 and 3 percent, respectively. Year on year price changes followed mixed trends.