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Prices of key cereal staples continued to rise, but at a slower pace

11/11/2022

Prices of key cereal staples continued to rise, but at somewhat slower rates compared to preceding months, amid the start of the planting period for the main 2023 season crops. In South Africa, driven by a further depreciation of the national currency and an increase in international benchmark quotations, domestic wholesale prices of maize increased for a second consecutive month in October, reaching all-time highs. Countering some of this upward pressure and tempering the monthly gains were the ample domestic supplies and early planting indications that point to an above-average maize area for the 2023 crop, factors that have also helped keep prices close to export parity levels. Wholesale prices of wheat also increased moderately in October, similarly pressured by the South African rand weakness and an upturn in global prices. In Botswana and Namibia, which import the bulk of their cereal supplies, maize meal and wheat prices climbed modestly in September, tracking trends in the international market and particularly in South Africa, the main source of their cereal imports. In Eswatini, a net importer of cereals, the national average price of maize meal was virtually unchanged month-on-month, but remained higher than their year-earlier levels. Prices of other cereals, rice and wheat, increased slightly in September on a monthly basis. In Zambia, the national average price of maize grain increased moderately in October and was 31 percent higher year-on-year, underpinned by the reduced harvest in 2022. The annual food inflation rate was estimated at 12 percent in October 2022, virtually unchanged on a monthly basis as the strength of the Zambian kwacha in 2022 has helped to mitigate external inflationary pressures. In Malawi, following two months of moderate price rises, the national average price of maize grain increased at a quicker pace in October, and reached a record high. Currency weakness that has exacerbated the spill over effects of high global commodity prices and a lower year-on-year harvest are the two principal factors that have driven maize prices upwards. Prices are the highest in southern districts, where the acute food insecurity is most prevalent compared to the districts in the Central and Northern regions. In Mozambique, prices of rice and wheat flour have been relatively stable in the three months to September, but were higher year-on-year, while maize prices increased moderately and were at lower year-on-year levels. The food inflation rate was estimated at 17 percent in September and the overall headline inflation rate was at 12 percent, above the government’s target ceiling but stable compared to the previous month, amid an increase in the benchmark interest rate to stem inflationary pressure. In Zimbabwe, the annual inflation rate was estimated at 340 percent in October unchanged compared to the previous month, while the monthly rate edged up slightly to 3 percent, but remained well below the double-digit peaks reached earlier in the year. The high annual inflation rates largely reflect the impact of a persistent exchange rate depreciations, which has amplified the transmission of elevated global prices to the domestic market and the overall poor macroeconomic situation. At a commodity level, prices of maize meal dropped markedly in October throughout the country, however, prices were still significantly higher year-on-year.