Prices of coarse grains generally declined in October as 2022 harvests increased supplies. However, exceptionally high levels continued to be recorded in South Sudan and the Sudan in October, and in Somalia in September, where famine is projected in late 2022 in the absence of an immediate scaling up of humanitarian assistance. In these countries, prices remain underpinned by insufficient supplies and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including currency weakness. Prices were also significantly higher year-on-year in Ethiopia, mainly as a result of macroeconomic difficulties and localized trade disruptions from insecurity. Across the subregion, the upward pressure on prices continues to be exacerbated by the impact of the war in Ukraine on international food, fuel and fertilizer markets.

In the Sudan, prices of domestically produced sorghum increased in October in several monitored markets, despite the imminent start of the 2022 harvest, to be gathered from November, while prices of millet declined. Overall, prices of coarse grains in October were at near-record to record levels, and between three and four times their already elevated year-earlier values, mainly due to tight supply, political instability and intercommunal clashes, a weak national currency and high prices of fuel and agricultural inputs. Prices of locally produced wheat declined in October from the peaks reached in September, but remained at very high levels, underpinned by a below-average production due to shortages of improved seeds and fertilizers, irrigation constraints and increased demand due to high prices of imported wheat. In South Sudan, prices of maize and sorghum declined in October in the capital, Juba, as the first season harvest, recently concluded in southern bimodal rainfall areas, increased market supplies, while the national currency appreciated moderately against the United States dollar on the parallel market. Despite the recent declines, prices were at exceptionally high levels due to tight supplies, the lingering impact of prolonged conflict and macroeconomic challenges. In Somalia, where famine has been projected in late 2022 in the absence of an immediate scaling up of humanitarian assistance, prices of maize and sorghum continued to decline in September in several markets with the arrival of the “Gu” harvest, estimated at below-average levels due to drought conditions constraining yields. Prices in October persisted at very high levels from significantly reduced availabilities following four consecutive below‑average harvests. Prices of imported wheat, mainly consumed in urban areas, were also at high levels in the capital, Mogadishu, due to year-on-year higher international prices. In Ethiopia, prices of maize declined in October in Bahirdar market, located in a key producing area, with the start of the “Meher” harvest, while prices remained firm in the capital, Addis Ababa. Prices in October were at near-record to record levels, mainly due to the continuous depreciation of the national currency, which increased prices of imported fuel and inputs, in addition to conflict-related trade disruptions in some areas. In Burundi, prices of maize seasonally increased in October and continue to be well above their year-earlier values, mainly due to high fuel prices inflating transport costs.