In Sahelian countries, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in October and remained at exceptionally high levels. The high prices reflect the low market supply stemming from below-average cereal harvests in 2021 and reduced trade flows, associated to lingering COVID-19 logistical bottlenecks, cereal export bans in several countries and economic sanctions imposed on Mali during the first half of 2022 by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Market disruptions due to poor security conditions in the Liptako-Gourma and Lake Chad Basin areas were contributory factors to high prices.

In Mali, prices of locally produced sorghum and millet generally increased in October, despite the ongoing harvests, with sharper increases registered in markets located in central areas affected by conflicts and in areas bordering Senegal and Burkina Faso. On a yearly basis, prices of coarse grains were up to 125 percent higher, reflecting a tight market situation underpinned by the lingering effects on cross border trade of ECOWAS sanctions on cross border trade, enforced during the first half of the year, reduced cereal output in 2021 and poor security conditions, amid strong export and domestic demand. In Burkina Faso, prices of coarse grains generally levelled off or declined in October across most of the country, driven by the commercialization of early harvested crops, but increased in markets located in northern and eastern areas severely affected by conflicts. Compared to their previous year’s levels, prices of sorghum and millet were up to 70 and 120 percent, respectively, higher mostly reflecting disruptions to markets related to a severe deterioration of security conditions in the conflict-affected areas and the high concentration of internally displaced persons that has increased demand. In both Mali and Burkina Faso, expectations of below-average cereal outputs have added upward pressure on prices. In the Niger, prices of millet and sorghum declined significantly in October, in line with seasonal trends. Cereal production in 2022 is expected to bounce back following the severely reduced output in 2021, providing support to the downward seasonal pressure. In most markets, prices are near their year-earlier values. However, in Tillaberi and Niamey, prices were still up to 15 percent above their year-earlier levels. In Chad, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in September and remained well above their year-earlier levels, reflecting major disruptions to markets and livelihoods following widespread floods that caused significant damage to standing crops and poor security conditions in Lac and Tibesti regions. On a yearly basis, prices of maize, millet and sorghum were up to 55, 37 and 46 percent, respectively, higher.

In several coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, prices of coarse grains also followed mixed trends between September and October. In Ghana, prices of locally produced coarse grains, increased for the second consecutive month in October. In spite of average to above‑average market supplies from the good cereal outputs in 2021 and the ongoing 2022 cereal harvests, prices of maize, sorghum and millet were up to 45, 115 and 140 percent, respectively, above their levels in October 2021. This is due to persistent inflationary pressures from strong export demand, depreciation of the national currency and higher international commodity prices. In Togo, prices of maize and sorghum were generally stable or declined further in October, amid the ongoing main harvests, while they increased in Lomé and in northern areas bordering Burkina Faso, reflecting strong cross border demand. On a yearly basis, prices of maize and sorghum were up to 25 and 40 percent, respectively above their year-earlier levels, reflecting strong domestic demand and higher production costs. In Benin, prices of maize declined for the third consecutive month, while those of sorghum were overall stable. Overall, prices of maize and sorghum were about 20 and 10 percent below their year-earlier levels, reflecting adequate market supplies. In Nigeria, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends between September and October. On average, prices of maize and millet were over 15 percent higher year‑on-year, while prices of sorghum were close to their year-earlier levels. In some markets in the northeast and northcentre, yearly increases of prices were higher, supported by poor security conditions and increased transportation costs, recently compounded by the disruptions associated to major flooding. Prices of rice increased in September and October, underpinned by strong demand, with local and imported varieties up to 55 and 35 percent higher on a yearly basis. Annual food inflation in Nigeria reached a record of 23.34 percent in September, supported by higher costs of imports, associated with the depreciation of the national currency, amid higher international commodity prices.