Towards more clarity on reversal risks in forest-based climate mitigation

In response to the pressing need for durable forest-based climate solutions, FAO has released a new publication titled "Options for addressing the risk of non-permanence for land-based mitigation in carbon crediting programmes." This paper provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the challenge of “non-permanence”—the risk that emission reductions from forests may be reversed due to events such as deforestation, fires, or pest outbreaks.

Non-permanence has become a key consideration in climate strategies, especially as countries intensify commitments to reducing emissions. For forest-based mitigation to be reliable, carbon storage must remain stable and resilient over the long term to avoid undermining mitigation goals. This paper offers actionable strategies for carbon crediting programmes to manage reversal risks.

This paper, developed in collaboration with the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and Öko-Institut, under FAO’s AIM4Forests programme, consolidates knowledge on non-permanence risks and aims to contribute to the global dialogue on forest resilience and carbon permanence, informing discussions on Article 6 at COP29 and beyond.

“As countries around the world expand their forest-based climate commitments, it is essential to ensure these actions are built to last,” says Julian Fox, FAO’s Forest Monitoring and Data Platforms Team Leader. Till Neeff, FAO Forestry Officer and co-author of the report, explains, “Carbon crediting schemes need approaches to manage reversal risks and make forest mitigation results count over the long-term”.

Lambert Schneider from the Öko-Institut adds that "the publication is especially timely as negotiations at COP29 address this critical issue.”

The publication informs discussions at the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) which have in their first days already seen important progress towards methodological details for durable carbon credits from land-based activities. As early as 2023, the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body had published recommendations that included principles on addressing non-permanence risks, a discussion around this topic took place during a webinar organized by FAO Forestry Division on Options for managing the risk of non-permanence in forest-based mitigation. The COP29 in Baku now approved of those recommendations.