Ethiopia will dramatically transform in the coming decades. In a business as usual scenario, the Ethiopian population is expected to reach 188 million by 2050, from about 99 million today, and the size of the economy to almost quintuple. The Growth and Transformation Plan II (2015/16 – 2018/20) provides broad guidance for inclusive and sustainable transformation in the years ahead and achieving the “country’s vision to become a lower-middle-income country by 2025”. Agriculture will be “the main driver of the rapid and inclusive economic growth and development” spurred by the implementation Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II).

The livestock sector will significantly contributes to GTP II: the Livestock Master Plan 2015-2020 “sets out investment interventions - better genetics, feed and health services, which, together with complementary policy support - could help meet the GTP II targets by improving productivity and total production in the key livestock value chains for poultry, red meat-milk, and crossbred dairy cows”. The Livestock Master Plan will eventually support major transformations in the livestock sector, well beyond 2020, which will not increase the availability of affordably-priced animal protein for the population, but might also result in negative public health, environmental and social outcomes.

The Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and the FAO Africa Sustainable Livestock 2050 Initiative have joined forces to generate evidence that supports a sustainable development of livestock in the long-term. A National Steering Committee, comprising representatives of the partnering ministries, leads a multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder process to:

• Characterize the current livestock production systems and generate evidence on their impact on public health, the environment and livelihoods.
• Formulate long-term (2050) scenarios to characterize future livestock production systems and anticipate emerging opportunities and challenges for Ethiopian society.
• Identify actionable policy reforms to implement today that, by complementing current policies and strategies, will enhance the country capacity to cope with the possible emergence and spread of zoonotic diseases and antimicrobial resistance; to deal with the potential negative impact of livestock on the environment and climate change; and to improve the livelihoods and food security of the future generations.