High mackerel prices redirect Asian small pelagic trade

Asia remained the largest regional market for frozen small pelagics in 2025, supported by both processing industries and direct human consumption, but trade flows were increasingly affected by high Atlantic mackerel prices and reduced Norwegian availability. Imports of frozen mackerel in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 8.87 percent despite rising prices, with Viet Nam remaining the leading importer among the main destinations, China moving ahead of Indonesia, and Thailand, Indonesia and Japan continuing to be important markets.

Norwegian mackerel exports declined sharply in volume but reached record value levels. Norway exported 196 030 tonnes of whole frozen mackerel in 2025, with the Republic of Korea, Viet Nam and Japan among the main markets, while total mackerel export value reached NOK 8.5 billion. The high prices reflected lower quotas in 2025 and expectations of a further reduction in 2026, which intensified competition for raw material among Asian buyers and processors.

Japan was particularly affected by the price increase and by tariff disadvantages on direct imports. Whole mackerel from Norway faces a 7 percent tariff in Japan and fillets face a 10 percent tariff, while exports to Viet Nam are duty-free and fillets processed there can enter Japan without duty. As a result, increasing volumes of Norwegian mackerel are being channelled through Viet Nam, and to a lesser extent China, as processors seek to keep costs down.

In early 2026, the Republic of Korea remained the dominant direct market for Norwegian mackerel, receiving more than twice as much as Viet Nam, although rising prices were also creating concern in that market. In Japan, buyers showed growing interest in Norwegian herring as a lower-cost alternative; during the first months of 2026, more herring than mackerel was exported directly from Norway to Japan for the first time. This indicates that substitution within the small pelagic category is becoming more visible in Asian markets.

China is also becoming more relevant for Norwegian pelagic products, although it remains smaller than the main Asian mackerel destinations. In 2025, 9 percent of total Norwegian mackerel went to China, and consumer research showed that mackerel was among the species considered by Chinese shoppers for home consumption, alongside yellow croaker, grouper and salmon. While salmon continues to account for a major share of growth in China’s imported fisheries and aquaculture product market, interest in healthy and convenient fisheries and aquaculture products may support further demand for Atlantic mackerel.