Supply struggles and market uncertainty

The Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) reported that Norwegian salmon exports during January–September 2024 accounted for 873 102 tonnes worth NOK 88.1 billion (USD 7.78 billion), which meant a rise of 0.7 percent in volume but a decline of 0.8 percent in NOK value. Germany showed the highest value growth for Norwegian salmon in the third quarter of the year. Fresh and frozen salmon, as well as smoked product, saw volume growth in the German market. The rises were primarily driven by higher domestic consumption, with some of it used for processing and export.

Italy is now the third most important market for Norwegian salmon, absorbing almost 10 percent of production from that country. According to a recent survey, salmon has achieved a popularity comparable to that of pizza. Moreover, sushi and poke, which have salmon as a main ingredient, have become favourites in local restaurants. In 2024, Italians consumed approximately 140 000 tonnes of Norwegian salmon, a significant increase from 84 000 tonnes in 2017. This trend is especially noticeable among people between 18 and 34 years old, who consume salmon dishes in restaurants on average three times a month.

Asian markets for salmon have been active since mid-December 2024 in celebration of Christmas and the Gregorian New Year, followed closely by the festivities surrounding the Lunar (Chinese) New Year on 29 January 2025. This resulted in an unusually long period of high market demand particularly in the HORECA business throughout the region. Restaurants had promotional New Year campaigns, offering salmon-based dishes for family meals and supermarkets were also offering ready-to-cook salmon packs at attractive prices for home dining.

While Japan has access to some local production, other countries in Asia depend on imports. During January–September 2024, regional imports of fresh and frozen salmon accounted for 480 000 tonnes worth USD 4.1 billion, showing declines of 3.75 percent in volume and 7.28 percent in value against the corresponding period in 2023. The combined share of Japan and China, the top two markets, amounted to 56.5 percent. Conspicuously, imports of fresh/chilled salmon (generally air-flown) including fillets, increased during this period.

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