A global methodology for assessing drivers of deforestation and degradation

FAO has launched a new publication, A Global Methodology for the Assessment of Direct Drivers Associated with Deforestation and Degradation, presenting a harmonized, statistically robust approach to identify and validate the causes of forest loss. A launch webinar took place on 2 October 2025, bringing more than 80 participants from around the world interested in understanding the methodology and its implications for forest monitoring.

Developed in collaboration with six Central African countries—Cameroon, Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea—and supported by the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI), this methodology leverages FAO’s open-source Open Foris initiative and specifically the SEPAL platform, to generate transparent and validated data for targeted climate action and sustainable land management.

Open-source equalizer for forest monitoring

The launch event opened with remarks highlighting FAO’s strategic vision: to empower countries to generate, access, and use their own forest data. “Innovative, accurate and transparent monitoring forms the foundation for effective forest management and climate action,” said Julian Fox, Team Leader of FAO’s Forest Monitoring and Data Platforms.

Fifteen years ago, FAO launched Open Foris, and was among the first UN entity to offer open-source digital solutions for environmental monitoring. Since then, Open Foris has evolved into a global suite of applications used by over 250,000 users in 196 countries.

The open and inclusive nature of Open Foris has turned technology into a global equalizer—allowing countries, institutions, and communities to access powerful geospatial platforms for free.

In Central Africa, this vision was realized through collaboration with CAFI and six partner countries. Together, they used SEPAL—FAO’s cloud-based platform for satellite data analysis and Collect Earth Online –  for visually interpreting satellite imagery online—to assess the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation across the Congo Basin.

This joint effort established a consistent and replicable technical approach that supports ongoing national forest monitoring and reporting.

CAFI perspective linking data to impact

From the donor’s perspective, Chadrack Kafuti, Carbon Specialist for performance based programming for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), emphasized CAFI’s long-term vision to integrate data-driven decision-making into sustainable land management. “This study helps partner countries evaluate milestones established in their [programmed activities] with CAFI, particularly those targeting deforestation drivers,” he said.

CAFI, a multi-donor trust fund capitalized at over USD 1 billion, supports sustainable management initiatives across the Congo Basin. According to Kafuti, the results of the driver study are expected to inform future programs, such as payment for environmental services (PES), by monitoring deforestation and degradation at subnational jurisdictional levels.

Understanding and validating the drivers methodology

The study builds on a global drivers literature review led by Katie Bernhard, Environment and Development Economist, who explained that the methodology distinguishes between proximate drivers – direct causes of forest loss, such as agriculture, logging or mining; and underlying causes – broader socio-economic factors, such as market demand, governance, or land tenure systems.

Bernhard noted that across Sub-Saharan Africa, small-scale or subsistence agriculture is the most commonly cited driver of deforestation. However, identifying certain drivers can be complex. Charcoal production, for example, often contributes to degradation through selective logging or small-scale clearing, which may be less visible in satellite data but still significant over time.

_{Bags of charcoal – an important driver of forest degradation in Central Africa © FAO/Giulio Napolitano} 

A rigorous, transparent and scalable methodology

Aurélie Shapiro, FAO Chief Technical Advisor for the CAFI project, presented the technical design of the methodology, emphasizing its scalability and transparency. The approach:

• Follows best practices by avoiding pixel counting for area estimation. Since maps can contain errors, the study instead uses sample-based area estimation, which provides statistically robust results.
• Employs open-source solutions—SEPAL, Google Earth Engine, and Collect Earth Online (CEO)—for the visual interpretation of satellite imagery.
• Over 60,000 sample points were analyzed using high-resolution Planet NICFI data to identify one or more of eight defined drivers of deforestation and degradation.
• Aligns with national forest definitions, ensuring that outputs are comparable yet context-specific for each country.

“This work demonstrates that open-source solutions can deliver results that are both scientifically rigorous and nationally relevant,” said Shapiro. The result is a replicable methodology that allows countries to establish robust forest baselines to better understand the dynamics of land-use change, design interventions that respond to their specific drivers and solicit climate financing.

Key findings from Central Africa

The analysis revealed several important trends across the six countries:

• Deforestation rates are not increasing over time in Central Africa, contrary to some global reports.
• Less common forest types are more affected: dense forests cover about 60% of the region’s total forest area but account for only 30% of deforestation, while dry open forests (10% of total area) contribute up to 40% of forest loss.
• Accessibility matters: around 60% of deforestation occurs within two kilometres of existing roads or settlements.
• The dominant driver is the “rural complex” – a landscape pattern unique to Africa that combines small-scale agriculture, roads, and settlements.

These findings highlight the importance of context-specific approaches and confirm that tackling deforestation requires coordinated policies across agriculture, infrastructure, and land tenure sectors.

Data-driven pathways for sustainable forest management

By offering a harmonized, open-source methodology, this new approach equips countries with the skills and knowledge to monitor and address deforestation more effectively.

The data generated will support national forest monitoring systems (NFMS) and strengthen reporting under the Paris Agreement, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

“Understanding the drivers is the first step to designing effective, equitable and sustainable interventions,” said Shapiro. “Tackling deforestation means addressing broader challenges—poverty, food security, and climate change.”

FAO and CAFI will continue supporting Central African countries to expand the application of this methodology, fostering transparency, collaboration, and informed decision-making for forests worldwide.