18 December 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions

Overview:
Similar to last month, the latest seasonal dynamical models suggest that a La Niña-like dry pattern will
continue from East Africa to the Near East during the next few months. However, the anticipated dryness is
not as pronounced as in previous forecasts. Several seasonal models predict wetter conditions in January,
extending from northern Somalia to the central coast of the Red Sea. In northwestern Africa, it is rather
typical to become wetter than normal in late winter during La Niña, but there is little evidence of this in the
current forecasts. Consequently, only limited-scale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter.
Normal rainfall and small-scale breeding may occur in northwest Africa during the spring in April and May,
while below-normal rainfall is expected in southwest Asia.