Locust Watch

19 September 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions

19/09/2024

Overview:


Based on the latest subseasonal dynamical models, there has been minimal change in the locust areas compared to last month. Above-normal rains are expected to continue from mid-September to the first week of October, mainly in the northern Sahel of Mauritania and Mali, as well as along the Indo-Pakistan border where the monsoon will withdraw. As for the seasonal models, it is anticipated that La Niña will emerge and persist, leading to drier-than-normal conditions along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden coasts during the winter. At the beginning of the spring, Northwest Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the coast of southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan can expect slightly higher rainfall than usual in March.

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