22 November 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions
Overview:
Subseasonal dynamical models project normal to above-normal rainfall from the central Red Sea coast to the Gulf of Aden through the end of the year, particularly during the last week of November. Seasonal models suggest that a La Niña-like dry pattern will dominate much of northern Africa and the Middle East in the coming months. This pattern is anticipated to result in below-average rainfall across the Central Region during the winter and spring seasons, except for normal precipitation along the southern Red Sea coast from Sudan and Eritrea to Yemen and northwest Somalia in January. Consequently, only limited-scale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter. In northwestern Africa, above-normal rainfall and small-scale breeding may occur during the spring, particularly in April.