5 December 2024: outbreaks in Sudan and Niger

Key points:

• Overview: A very small outbreak developed in Niger and continued in Sudan.
• Current situation: Groups and small bands and swarms in Sudan; scattered locusts and a few groups of hoppers and adults along the coasts of Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Egypt and Yemen; isolated adults in northwest Somalia, Oman, and India. Groups and a swarm in Niger; isolated hoppers and adults in Mauritania; few adults in Algeria.
• Forecast: Groups and a few swarms from Sudan will migrate to the Red Sea coast for winter breeding. Locusts will increase and breed in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, and Eritrea, but more rain is needed in northwest Somalia. Drying vegetation may lead to a few swarms in Niger, while some groups in northeast Mali, southern Algeria, and northwest Mauritania. Some control operations will be required.

The outbreak in Sudan’s interior continued during November. Hopper and adult groups and bands were treated, but some adult groups and a few small swarms started to move to the Red Sea coast, where early breeding began in October. Scattered locusts and a few groups of hoppers and adults were seen along the coasts of Saudi Arabia, Eritrea and Egypt. Winter breeding commenced in November with control. A few small groups and bands were present in Yemen’s interior, while isolated adults were seen in northwest Somalia. Hopper and adult groups as well as a small swarm were seen in northern Niger, where a small outbreak developed. Low numbers of hoppers and adults were present in western Mauritania, while isolated adults were seen in southern Algeria.

During the forecast, locust numbers will increase along the Red Sea coasts of Sudan and Eritrea, and parts of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Egypt, where control is required. Seasonal models predict below-average rainfall from December onwards, suggesting only small-scale breeding unless unexpected rains occur. In the northern Sahel, a few small groups and swarms may form in Niger, with scattered adults and perhaps a few small groups in northwest Mauritania, northeast Mali, and southern Algeria. Some control may be necessary. No significant developments are expected in the Eastern Region.

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